Sunday, September 02, 2012

Very thorough new paper using well-known datasets finds that temperature rises come BEFORE CO2 rises, not after

It uses major Warmist datasets but looks at an aspect of the data that Warmists dare not: Which came first, the CO2 rise or the temperature rise?
The phase relation between atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperature

By Ole Humlum et al.


Using data series on atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperatures we investigate the phase relation (leads/lags) between these for the period January 1980 to December 2011. Ice cores show atmospheric CO2 variations to lag behind atmospheric temperature changes on a century to millennium scale, but modern temperature is expected to lag changes in atmospheric CO2, as the atmospheric temperature increase since about 1975 generally is assumed to be caused by the modern increase in CO2.

In our analysis we use eight well-known datasets; 1) globally averaged well-mixed marine boundary layer CO2 data, 2) HadCRUT3 surface air temperature data, 3) GISS surface air temperature data, 4) NCDC surface air temperature data, 5) HadSST2 sea surface data, 6) UAH lower troposphere temperature data series, 7) CDIAC data on release of anthropogene CO2, and 8) GWP data on volcanic eruptions.

Annual cycles are present in all datasets except 7) and 8), and to remove the influence of these we analyze 12-month averaged data. We find a high degree of co-variation between all data series except 7) and 8), but with changes in CO2 always lagging changes in temperature. The maximum positive correlation between CO2 and temperature is found for CO2 lagging 11–12 months in relation to global sea surface temperature, 9.5-10 months to global surface air temperature, and about 9 months to global lower troposphere temperature.

The correlation between changes in ocean temperatures and atmospheric CO2 is high, but do not explain all observed changes.


Whoops! The models get something else wrong

Atmospheric black carbon has much less influence than assumed
Science 31 August 2012: Vol. 337 no. 6098 pp. 1078-1081

Radiative Absorption Enhancements Due to the Mixing State of Atmospheric Black Carbon

By Christopher D. Cappa et al.


Atmospheric black carbon (BC) warms Earth’s climate, and its reduction has been targeted for near-term climate change mitigation. Models that include forcing by BC assume internal mixing with non-BC aerosol components that enhance BC absorption, often by a factor of ~2; such model estimates have yet to be clearly validated through atmospheric observations. Here, direct in situ measurements of BC absorption enhancements (Eabs) and mixing state are reported for two California regions. The observed Eabs is small—6% on average at 532 nm—and increases weakly with photochemical aging. The Eabs is less than predicted from observationally constrained theoretical calculations, suggesting that many climate models may overestimate warming by BC. These ambient observations stand in contrast to laboratory measurements that show substantial Eabs for BC are possible.


Romney ridicules Obama's Canute-like ambitions

Mitt Romney took a shot at President Barack Obama's climate change position during his acceptance speech Thursday.

"President Obama promised to slow the rise of the oceans and to heal the planet," Romney said after accepting the GOP's presidential nomination in Tampa, drawing laughter from the crowd. "My promise is to help you and your family."

The line received a standing ovation.

Romney was referring to now-famous remarks Obama made in 2008 after securing the Democratic nomination. “I am absolutely certain that generations from now, we will be able to look back and tell our children ... this was the moment when the rise of the oceans began to slow and our planet began to heal.”

A needless slam on science? That's how it appeared to Penn State climate researcher Michael Mann.

“How sad it is to witness such fallacious logic from a major party candidate for president,” Mann, one of the nation's best-known climate researchers, told POLITICO. “If we do not take the necessary actions to combat climate change now, we will of course be leaving our children and grandchildren the legacy of a degraded planet.” ....

Romney's speech also included a reiteration of his promise to achieve North American energy independence by 2020 “by taking full advantage of our oil and coal and gas and nuclear and renewables."


“How sad it is to witness such fallacious logic from a major party candidate for president”

Fallacious logic?? Romney was only quoting Obama, who was obviously suffering from delusions of grandeur

Hidden boogeymen out to grab you!: Antarctica’s hidden carbon stores pose warming risk

Well, it's a good thing that there is no global warming happening, then. And it's another good thing that even the most dire Warmist prediction of temperature rise would go nowhere near melting the Antarctic

Antarctic researchers found as much as 400 billion metric tons of carbon hidden under the ice sheets, with the potential to seep out as methane and accelerate global warming.

The carbon stored under Antarctic ice is on par with the amount held in the northern hemisphere’s frozen permafrost soils and the lower end of estimates for methane trapped under the Arctic Ocean, according to Jemma Wadham, professor of Glaciology at the U.K.’s University of Bristol and lead author of a study in the journal Nature yesterday.

Release of methane, a greenhouse gas 25 times more potent than carbon dioxide, from under melting ice has the potential to create a feedback loop where higher temperatures result in changes that add to global warming.

“There’s a potentially large pool of methane hydrate in part of the Earth where we haven’t previously considered it,” Wadham said in a telephone interview. “Depending on where that hydrate is, and how much there is, if the ice thins in those regions, some of that hydrate could come out with a possible feedback on climate.”

The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2007 estimated the smaller West Antarctica ice sheet is shrinking and larger East sheet growing or stable, concluding that the continental balance ranged from an annual gain of 50 gigatons to a loss of 200 gigatons in the decade through 2003. Its next major assessment of the effects of climate change is due in four volumes from September 2013 to October 2014.
Methane Release

While complete melting of the ice sheets isn’t likely for thousands of years, according to the UN, Wadham said smaller changes may release some of the methane trapped in hydrates.

“That hydrate is stable as long as you don’t change the temperature or pressure,” she said. “In Antarctica, though you might not have a big temperature change at the bed of the ice sheet, if the ice thins, the pressure drops and some of that hydrate could be converted into gas bubbles and then lost.”

The concentration of methane in the atmosphere rose 0.28 percent to 1,808 parts per billion in 2010, the highest since records began, the UN said in November. Scientists including James Hansen have said the decline of Arctic sea ice, which this year has shrunk to the lowest extent on record, may be a harbinger of greater changes, including the release of methane compounds from the permafrost -- or frozen soils.

Study Countered

The International Energy Agency last year said with current energy policies worldwide, the global average temperature may climb by more than 3.5 degrees, which may translate to an increase of 7 degrees in the faster-warming Arctic. In its 2007 report, the UN observed “a cooling over most of interior Antarctica,” a finding countered by a study in Nature in 2009.

Wadham’s team used computer models to predict how much methane might be trapped under the ice. They also tested sub- glacial soils from Antarctica and the Arctic in laboratory conditions to confirm organisms in the earth below the ice can produce methane. It isn’t yet possible to say over what period it may escape because of the “many uncertainties,” she said.

“All these things throw up more questions than answers initially,” Wadham said. “That provides you with a reason to go to look to perhaps drill into sediments underneath the ice sheet to see if hydrates are there.”


Underground coal gas a huge potential resource

And it's getting cheaper. Greenies should love it but there's no such thing as a happy Greenie, of course

The world's most abundant fossil fuel could be tapped without moving mountains, delivered without trucks or trains and burned without greenhouse-gas emissions.

The technology to make this possible has been around for decades. Underground coal gasification was pioneered by Sir William Siemens in the 1860s to light London's streets. Vladimir Lenin hailed the method in a 1913 article in Pravda for its potential to rescue Russians from hazards of underground mines.

Despite its early boosters, the technology never caught on in the U.S., mostly for cost reasons. Now the improvements in seismic mapping and drilling that lit a fire under the U.S. fracking boom may also spur development of a domestic coal gas industry, proponents said.

"The shale gas revolution is opening doors for the coal gas revolution," said Richard Morse, director of coal and carbon research at Stanford University in Palo Alto, California. "We knew it was there but couldn't get it out in a cost-effective way."

The technology works like this: beds, or seams, of underground coal are ignited, and the resulting combustible gas is piped out for use in electricity generation or as a raw material in chemical production.

The burn can be controlled by regulating the flow of oxygen, so there's slim chance of giving rise to another Centralia, the abandoned Pennsylvania town where a coal seam near the surface has been burning since 1962.

The method also leaves underground the worst parts of coal -- the mercury, arsenic and lead. And it allows for a much simpler capture of greenhouse gases, which can be piped back into the seam and stored there or sold to oil producers who inject it into wells to boost recovery rates.

Development of coal gas is proceeding faster in places where natural gas is expensive and coal seams are deep, including Canada, South Africa, New Zealand, China and Uzbekistan. Both of those preconditions are lacking in the U.S., at least right now.


Hydraulic fracturing depressed gas prices to a 10-year low of less than $2 a million British thermal units. That's well below the $6 that can be attained through a typical gasification project, according to estimates from Julio Friedmann, chief energy technologist at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California.

Gas futures in New York are trading at about $2.60 a million Btus, down 13 percent this year. "Cheap gas is the mortal enemy," Friedmann said.

And while researchers at Stanford University and Lawrence Livermore estimate that underground coal gasification would boost the levels of exploitable coal reserves in the U.S fivefold, the country isn't suffering from a shortage of the mineral.

Tom Welch, a spokesman for the U.S. Energy Department said underground gasification "has limited applicability across the U.S. because we have ample supplies of high quality, readily available coal."

That hasn't stopped mining companies in the U.S. from picking up reserves that would otherwise be worthless. Peabody Energy Corp. (BTU), the largest U.S. coal producer, last year paid $6.5 million for 29 coal leases in Wyoming containing what it said are "billions of tons" of the fuel. The seams are too deep to mine conventionally but may be ideal for underground gasification.

Outside of the U.S., coal gas is seeing a wave of new investment thanks to advances in drilling and computer modeling that are bringing down costs, said Stanford's Morse.


Some wisdom from 1974: “Temperatures Over Last 20 Years Have Dropped Faster Than At Anytime In The Last 1000 Years”

So said major German newsmagazine "Der Spiegel"

Looking back at the Spiegel archives, here’s another report warning of global cooling and that man was the cause: The desert is growing. There are some very familiar sounding excerpts:
"Undisputed is that the desert is growing…the Sahara in some places has expanded southwards by 48 km… 24 million people in Mauritius, Senegal, Mali, Niger and Chad are threatened with starving to death.

Meteorologists and climate scientists have another reason for the catastrophe: the changing world climate.

…Not only in the Sahel region, but also in Northwest India and over Hokkaido…the summertime monsoons have been almost completely absent since 1970.

…The climate in the northern hemisphere, explained Dr. Reid Bryson, Director of the Institute for Environmental Studies at the University of Wisconsin, is cooling slowly but steadily. After the the mean temperature made a step upwards since the turn of the century, there’s been a comparably rash temperature drop over the last 20 years: On average temperature dropped from 16 to 15,7°C (see graphic).

For Iceland, which is considered to be a sensitive climate indicator, Bryson and Icelandic meteorologist Berg Torssen calculated the climate changes back to 900 A.D. … Since the middle of this century, average temperatures dropped faster than at any time over the last 1000 years, by around 1°C.

At the same time the climate in the huge cold zones of the North, Canada and Siberia are getting frostier…for Central Russia, where the year before last the ‘coldest temperature in several hundred years’ was registered.

The cold blocking in the north, the skeptics of the climate change theory argue, has caused the west wind zone, which supplies Europe’s middle latitudes with Atlantic lows, to drift southwards.”

In the report, Spiegel blames the monsoons on the breakdown of atmospheric circulation, adding: "Indeed the start of the dry periods coincides timewise with about with the northern hemispheric cooling. Monsoon precipitation in the Sahel Zone has dropped by more than 50% since 1857.”

So many weather extremes back then, too? Today the Sahel Region is greening. Spiegel saves the best for last: "The cold trend, calamitous forthe monsoon countries, is likely because of the industrial countries, according to US meteorologist Gene Wooldridge — through pollution of the atmosphere with soot and aerosols. The veil of pollution allows less sunlight to shine through, which leads to fewer and fewer rain clouds forming over the oil-contaminated Atlantic.”

Climate changed naturally throughout history. But since about 1900, it’s all man’s fault. We live in an age of technical charlatans.



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