Tuesday, September 04, 2012

"Global Green USA" flunks math

If they were real scientists, they would be able to convert millimeters into feet and inches. They use both measurement methods but are obviously unaware that 200mm converts to about 8"

Among other challenges, climate change is causing our sea levels to rise and putting our coastal cities -- and billions of people -- at risk across the globe.


Below, some alarming facts about the increasingly rapid rate of ice shelf melting.

* Sea level has risen four to 10 inches this past century and is projected to rise up to three feet by 2100.

* For every foot of sea level rise, we can expect about 100 feet of coastal flooding.

* As much as 33% of coastal land and wetland habitats are likely to be lost in the next hundred years if the level of the ocean continues to rise at its present rate. (Source)

* Sea level has risen by more than two millimeters per year on average since the late 19th century, the steepest rate for more than 2,100 years. (Source)

* The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are losing mass at an accelerating pace. The findings of a NASA-funded satellite study indicate that these ice sheets are overtaking ice loss from Earth's mountain glaciers and ice caps to become the dominant contributor to global sea level rise -- much sooner than model forecasts have predicted. (Source)


A reply from James Macdonald [jmac0013@cox.net], a retired meteorologist

Your article on sea level rise contains ridiculous predictions. Based on the present rate of sea level rise, which even your article pegs at about 2 millimeters per year, the rise for the next century would only be about 8 inches, not three feet! Statements that it is accelerating are pure nonsense. Worldwide, there has been no warming in the last 14 years. Only in the United States have we had a warm year so far after a very cold winter two years ago. At the same time the Arctic regions have been colder than normal for the past 12 months. The Southern hemisphere has also had no warming. The major icecaps are not melting and the South Pole ice is getting thicker..

This all adds up to no acceleration of sea level rise. No one knows whether our climate will get warmer or colder in the next century. This will be governed by the sun and the ocean oscillations.

Inconvenient Truth: CO2 Disconnect With Global Temperature Continues!

By Joe Bastardi

With climate change a huge issue this election season, we should review the latest facts on the matter. In this chart, CO2 continues its rise. The global temperatures, however, have not only leveled off, they have begun to fall. This result is in line with natural climate cycle theory.

If the admission to the school of your choice, be it Cornell, or lets say Columbia or Harvard, depended on you answering this question -- "Given the facts presented in the chart above, is CO2 driving the Earth’s temperature?" -- how would you answer it?


Southern Hemisphere Sea Surface Temperatures Declining For 16 Years

As shown even in a major Warmist dataset. Note that this covers half of the globe so there is clearly no GLOBAL warming going on

HadSST has updated through July, and now shows 16 years of temperature decline.


EU wimps out on 30% emissions target

The European Union appears unlikely to adopt tougher targets for carbon emissions this year after an official at the UN climate talks in Bangkok was quoted as saying further cuts were ‘wishful thinking’.

The EU’s current ambitions for 2020 involve reducing emissions by 20% on 1990 levels, improving energy efficiency by 20% and increasing the share of renewables in the bloc’s energy mix by 20%.

In recent months there have been moves for the EU to increase those 2020 targets to 25% or 30%, but a report from the PushEurope campaign group reveals that at an informal session of the UN talks currently taking place in Bangkok an EU official said: “25% is not reality, it is wishful thinking.”

PushEurope also claims the EU official confirmed discussions on the 2020 targets had been closed, so they could focus on emissions reductions for 2030 – meaning that it will not consider further progress on emissions reductions for another decade.

The UN talks were “unlikely to see changes in pledges this year or in other parts of the world”, the official was reported as saying.

If this is now an official EU policy it will come as a blow to climate commissioner Connie Hedegaard, who has been a vocal supporter of adopting a more ambitious goal.

The 30% emissions reductions target is a proposal supported by a number of leading EU states, notably the UK.

EU member states are responsible for approximately 11% of global emissions, so in one sense an argument over 20% or 25% could be seen as splitting hairs.

But where the EU leads others follow, particularly on key issues such as the Kyoto Protocol, emissions trading and efficiency standards, which is why the bloc’s policy pronouncements are so important.


Germany -- Insane Or Just Plain Stupid?

Beware sarcasm below

After the tsunami destroyed the Fukushima plants, Germany moved quickly to shut eight nuclear power plants, and made plans do away completely with their nuclear capability. Despite the best safety record of any industry in the country, and the critical role nuclear plays in fueling German industry, Germany’s past experience with large tsunamis [Germany does have a small West-facing coastline but an Atlantic tsunami would not reach it because there are some large islands in the way -- the British Isles] was just too horrific to ignore. And Germany’s strong economy and commitment to protect the environment were small prices to pay for Chancellor Merkel to shore up her weak coalition with the Free Democrats. Maybe she can ask Greece for help later.

But don’t worry. Germany is building about 25 clean coal-fired power plants to offset the loss of nuclear and address Germany’s admittedly “unaffordably expensive and unreliable” renewable portfolio (Der Spiegel). The German Green Party can now celebrate the opening of a 2,200 MW coal-fired power plant near Cologne. It started spewing out its annual, relatively clean, 13 million tons of CO2, and other nasties, so much lower than those older dirty coal plants that would have put out 15 million tons of CO2 for the same power output.

We usually give the Germans credit for being rational, but this coal plant will emit over one million times more carbon this year than all of their nuclear plants would have over the next 20 years, and cost over twice as much to run as any one of the them. Germany’s present strategy will absolutely not allow them to reduce their carbon emissions anywhere near their goal of 40% by 2020.

Unless the German people give up the nice parts of their lifestyle and become insanely efficient, they most likely will not reduce their emissions at all by 2020.

But the new Federal Environment Minister, Peter Altmaier, was quite excited during his discussion of the new coal plant, “The new power plant is an impressive example of how the high levels of efficiency of modern coal- and gas-fired power plants not only help to reduce carbon emissions but can also make an outstanding contribution to the success of energy industry transformation”

Wow, this coal plant is flexible indeed. It has a purported efficiency of 43%, up 10% from old plants. It can ramp up and down within minutes to meet renewable’s intermittency. It burns lignite coal, the cleanest of all coal [it puts out most CO2 of all -- JR], of which Germany has plenty. And at $3.4 billion, it’s a steal.

And it comes in the nick of time for German industry. Thanks to their Renewable Energy Act (EEG) and the shutting of their nuclear plants, the country’s energy costs are skyrocketing and driving German manufacturing out of business or off-shore

The EEG is simple: renewables get a guaranteed high price for their electricity for almost a decade, the utilities have to take it onto the grid in front of all other energy sources, they have to buy it at rates way-above market value, and the difference is paid for by the average citizen at the end of each month.

What could go wrong?

Electricity costs are going up more rapidly than expected because Germany failed to integrate this EEG plan into the larger infrastructure development needed to implement it. The grid can’t handle it, the transmission system is not there, and the power disruptions and brownouts are wreaking havoc on the country’s energy reliability. And the consumer is expected to pay even more to fix these problems in the short-term.

No one thought Germany would be insane enough to shut down their nuclear plants, without a reason and without backup, when it was producing the cheapest energy in Europe. In fact, Germany’s nuclear production was the only economic way to implement the EEG, even if nuclear was to be phased out early as the new mix matured. And they could still be restarted relatively quickly and cheaply.

But it better be quick, because all German industrial and manufacturing sectors – steel, aluminum, paper, cement, plastics, chemical – are migrating to countries with cheaper electricity as energy and carbon-costs are eating up to 50% of their expenses. Almost one in five German industrial companies plans to, or already has, shifted capacities abroad

ThyssenKrupp, Germany’s largest steelmaker, expects 5,000 job losses because of high electricity prices, and recently sold its Krefeld stainless steel mill to a Finnish competitor, devastating a little town on the Rhine. The Düsseldorf-based conglomerate GEA closed its zinc plant in nearby Datteln. Europe’s largest copper producer, Aurubis of Hamburg, announced plans to move some operations abroad, especially to Asia and South America, where energy is cheaper. Aluminum manufacturer Norsk Hydro substantially cut back production in its Neuss plant, having shut down two production lines completely, and forcing the plant’s 450 workers to reduced hours.

Even legislation pending in the European Union to remove the carbon-costs may not keep these companies in Germany.

Seemingly unwitting, the green energy sector forgets that they also need steel, cement, and plastic, a fact noted, ironically, by the left-leaning Social Democratic Party Chairman Sigmar Gabriel.

As expected in the vicious circle started by all this, social unrest is just beginning. The average household in Germany will be paying almost double for energy next year compared to last year. Many of Germany’s poor and unemployed are on fixed energy credits, and can’t afford either the increased electricity costs or the cost of energy-efficient appliances that could counter their rising monthly bills. Wealthy citizens can install solar panels and actually make money on them.

Unfortunately, the middle-class is bearing the brunt of the tax burden for both the industry and the poor, as well as paying the bulk of the increasing monthly costs. Soon Germany may not have the economic engine to carry the rest of Europe through its financial crisis. Merkel will have to find another coalition or her government may fall.

So it’s a perfect storm for coal to come to the rescue. I mean, it’s clean, right?


Warmists bribe bloggers with paid junket

Are you a budding blogger with an interest in the environment? Or maybe a video journalist with a passion for social issues? Well, if you are and also happen to be between 18-30 years old, then the ‘Adopt a Negotiator’ project is for you. They are on the look out for talented people to join their delegation to the UN COP18 conference in the hope of securing a better deal for the climate and the world’s citizens at the next climate summit.

Sébastien Duyck from AaN explains more about the project: “We bring young (18-30) people and bloggers to the main meetings of the UN climate talks to push for stronger climate action, mainly through the use of social media. So as we are now seeking new candidates to join our delegation to the UN COP18 conference, we would like to invite several regional representatives to join us.

“Hopefully we can contribute to raising awareness at the regional level and build the capacity of local young people for the benefit of their networks after the conference.” AaN, which is a project of the Global Campaign for Climate Action, have a number of fellowships available so if you’re interested then do get in touch. Applications received before 22nd August will be given priority, so no time like the present!

Fellows will be provided with:

* The opportunity to play a specific role to promote progressive climate policies in your country;

* The chance to be part of a team with many other amazing young activists/bloggers;

* All support needed from our team and partner during the coming months (networking, capacity building);

* Transportation to Doha, accommodation and a generous per diem [payment] during the Doha Climate Change Conference




The graphics problem: Graphics hotlinked to this site sometimes have only a short life and if I host graphics with blogspot, the graphics sometimes get shrunk down to illegibility. From January 2011 on, therefore, I have posted a monthly copy of everything on this blog to a separate site where I can host text and graphics together -- which should make the graphics available even if they are no longer coming up on this site. See here and here


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