Thursday, November 24, 2022

Climate reparations exposed

At the recently concluded UN COP27 climate conference in Egypt, Tuvalu Prime Minister Natano called for reparations to "at-risk" nations. At the conclusion of the conference, negotiators from nearly 200 countries agreed to fund poor nations for the "loss and damage" they are supposedly experiencing.

We decided to take a deeper dive into the claims of "sinking islands," and the truth may surprise you.

Tuvalu is a low-lying island nation in the South Pacific with an average elevation of two meters (3.3 feet) and consists of four reef islands and five true atolls. Its highest elevation is 4.5 meters (15 ft) above sea level, which gives Tuvalu the second-lowest maximum elevation of any country (after the Maldives)

The claim is made that continued sea-level rise will soon put Tuvalu and other low-lying nations under water. That certainly sounds like a reasonable assumption, but putting this into a longer geologic context is important.

About 20,000 years ago, the islands of what is now Tuvalu were just above sea level, just as they are today. Since that time, sea level has risen more than 400 feet (130 meters) and yet, the islands remained above sea level.

The reason that these islands grew is a geologic process known as "accretion." This process transfers sediment from the beachface to the island surface and allows the islands to keep up with rising seas. In fact, over the last four decades, there has been a net increase in land area of the islands of nearly 3 percent (33 acres).

Maldives - And what of the most at-risk island nation? According to Forbes, there is a construction boom going on there with the building of new villas, resorts and airports. All of this is funded by equity companies and protected by multinational insurance companies. Bear in mind that these institutions avoid risk like the plague. Would they put their capital at risk if they thought that the islands were going to be under water soon?


Biden Agrees To Pay Climate Reparations—And China, the World’s Top Carbon Emitter, Could Profit

The Biden administration on Saturday agreed to pay climate reparations to developing nations, a move that China—the world's top emitter of greenhouse gases and one of its largest economies—could profit from.

Administration officials emerged from the United Nations Climate Change Conference over the weekend with a global agreement to establish a "climate justice" fund that would see the United States and other wealthy nations pay developing countries for "loss and damage" caused by climate change. But the U.N. still classifies China—which boasts the second-highest gross domestic product in the world—as a developing country, meaning it could benefit from the fund.

That classification has left the United States scrambling to assure "that China will eventually contribute to any fund created—and that China would not be eligible to receive money from it," the New York Times reported Saturday. Beyond its economic status, China is by far the world's number one carbon emitter: The communist nation's greenhouse gas emissions in 2019 "exceeded those of the U.S. and other developed nations combined," according to CNBC.

It's unclear exactly how much the fund would cost, but a 2021 U.N. estimate placed the annual price tag in the hundreds of billions of dollars. That sky-high figure—and China's potential to receive a portion of it—will likely draw Congress's ire, particularly after Republicans take control of the House in early 2023. Biden's climate diplomats agreed to the fund at the conference, but Congress still must appropriate any taxpayer money that goes into it. Sen. John Barrasso (R., Wyo.) has already called the fund "completely misguided," and even a razor-thin House GOP majority could decline to bankroll it should its members remain united in opposition.

Biden's decision to back the climate fund comes just days after his climate czar, John Kerry, assured reporters that such a fund was "just not happening." "It's a well-known fact that the United States and many other countries will not establish … some sort of legal structure that is tied to compensation or liability," Kerry said on November 12. Roughly one week later, after the conference's conclusion, Kerry released a statement saying he "welcomes" the fund's creation.

The White House did not return a request for comment.

Beyond the Biden administration's support for climate reparations, conference attendees faced criticism for using gas-guzzling private jets to travel to the two-week summit, which was held in Sharm El Sheikh, a swanky resort town in Egypt. Brazil's president-elect, Luiz InĂ¡cio Lula da Silva, flew to the climate conference on a millionaire businessman's private jet, and more than 400 private aircraft flooded Egypt's airports during the conference, according to Business Insider. Last year's conference, which occurred in Glasgow, contributed to the emission of roughly 103,000 metric tons of greenhouse gases—roughly 7,000 times the average American's annual carbon footprint.

Power the Future founder and executive director Daniel Turner admonished the U.N. and other world climate leaders for their exorbitance, arguing that U.S. taxpayers should not fork over more money for climate reparations when they've already paid for government officials to "live glamorously and travel the world in the name of climate change."


Green Britain: UK economy to suffer biggest hit from energy crisis among G7 nations

Britain is predicted to continue to suffer from painful inflation exacerbated by worker shortages and ‘untargeted’ energy support.

Gloomy forecasts from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) reveal a sharp downgrade for the country’s economy. It is expected to shrink by 0.4% in 2023 and grow by just 0.2% in 2024.

In the new report, the OECD took aim at the UK Government’s support efforts to cap energy bills at around £2,500 until April. Experts say doing so will push up inflation and mean households and businesses will be hit by higher interest rates as a result as policymakers look to rein in price and wage rises.

The OECD said: ‘The untargeted Energy Price Guarantee announced in September 2022 by the Government will increase pressure on already high inflation in the short term, requiring monetary policy to tighten more and raising debt service costs.

‘Better targeting of measures to cushion the impact of high energy prices would lower the budgetary cost, better-preserve incentives to save energy, and reduce the pressure on demand at a time of high inflation.’

Germany is the only other G7 country set to see a contraction in gross domestic product (GDP) next year, with a 0.3% drop, according to the report.

Italy will see only paltry growth of 0.2%, while the United States will eke out 0.5% expansion, with GDP set to rise by 0.6% in France and 1% in Canada and 1.8% in Japan.

On Britain’s outlook, the OECD cautioned: ‘Risks to the outlook are considerable and tilted towards the downside.

‘Higher-than-expected goods and energy prices could weigh on consumption and further depress growth.

‘A prolonged period of acute labour shortages could force firms into a more permanent reduction in their operating capacity or push up wage inflation further.’

But it said households may choose to return to the jobs market to help boost stretched finances.

The OECD said UK inflation – which hit a 41-year high of 11.1% in October – will likely peak at the end of this year and remain above 9% into early 2023, before slowing to 4.5% by next year-end and to 2.7% by the end of 2024.

Its report sees UK interest rates rising further from 3% currently to 4.5% by April next year, while unemployment will lift from 3.6% to 5% by the end of 2024.


Tropical cyclones reached Sydney in the 1950s and they could return

It's terrible weather but is NOT due to global warming

NSW could be impacted by destructive tropical cyclones this decade, and it's not because of climate change.

While only two cyclones have directly struck NSW since 1974, the state was pounded by a cyclone every two years from the 1940s to the 1970s, many leading to record flood levels and deaths.

What's concerning is the Pacific pattern behind the abundance of cyclones last century has now returned.

Tropical cyclones can reach Sydney

Studying 27 NSW cyclone tracks between 1887 and 2013 shows most storms impacted the state's north-east but some survived down to Sydney and the South Coast.

What's irregular is the majority of cyclones arrived in just a 30-year window from 1945 to 1974, including eight in the 1950s.

While cyclones continue to annually make landfall over northern Australia, during the past 48 years only Cyclone Nancy (1990) and Ex-Cyclone Oswald (2013) reached NSW, both bringing significant flooding and a damage bill in the hundreds of millions.

Where have the cyclones gone?

The inordinate frequency of cyclones from the 40s to the 70s and the disappearance in recent decades is not random variability.

A 2020 report in the Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems links NSW cyclone activity with changes in the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO).

The current state of the IPO and other cyclone influences has rapidly shifted in the past three years to resemble the 1950s. Meaning, the current phase of the Pacific is conducive to tropical cyclones impacting NSW.

How the IPO can impact weather for decades

The IPO is a shift in Pacific Ocean temperatures but unlike the annual La Nina and El Nino oscillations, the changes extend outside of the tropics and last from years to even decades.

A negative phase of the IPO occurs when waters along the equator are cooler than normal (region 2) while waters are warm off Australia's east coast (region 3) and in the northern Pacific (region 1).

A negative IPO phase was behind the flood dominant 1950s to 1970s and a period when tropical cyclones regularly visited NSW.

A positive phase led to drought dominant weather in Australia from the 1980s to 2000s.

The lowest IPO values during the past 100 years were in the early 50s, and 1950 was not only the wettest year on record for NSW but also a year when a tropical cyclone made it to Sydney.

The one year average IPO in 2022 is running at the lowest value since 1917 and the 11 year average is plummeting as a result.

Deadliest cyclones to reach NSW and Sydney

Before tropical cyclones were regularly named a system in January 1950 — labelled TC119 — made landfall on the Gulf of Carpentaria coast then tracked south and reached Sydney as a category 1 system about three days later.

Sydney recorded its second lowest pressure on record at 988 HPa and 114mm of rain in 24 hours. Ten people died and seven yachts were wrecked in Sydney Harbour.

This kicked off what became the wettest year on record, before 2022.

In February 1954, TC137 also dropped more than 100mm on Sydney after crossing the coast near Tweed Heads as a category 3 cyclone with wind gusts in excess of 165 km/h.

TC137 caused disastrous floods in Lismore and Casino, destroyed houses and led to 30 fatalities, the deadliest cyclone in NSW post 1900.

Dorrigo received 809mm in 24 hours from TC137, a NSW 24 hour rain record which still stands today.

Going back even further to 1911, a tropical cyclone made landfall in the Gulf of Carpentaria on January 5.

It travelled south to NSW before moving out to sea again near Wollongong about the 15th.

According to the Bureau of Meteorology wind gusts of 137 km/h were recorded in Sydney, equivalent to the speed of a category two cyclone.

Could cyclones return to NSW this year?

There is obviously no guarantee, especially considering the recent climate change induced reduction in cyclone numbers around the world.

However, if the IPO remains strongly negative for several years, a major cyclone striking NSW would be far from unprecedented. And with the population more than double that of the 1950s the potential damage from a tropical cyclone is higher than ever.




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