And the data remains unavailable to this day!
One of the most important IPCC representations is the supposedly tremendous quality control of its review process. I've mentioned in passing on a number of occasions that, when I sought to obtain supporting data for then unpublished articles, IPCC threatened to expel me as a reviewer. I've had a few requests to recount my experience with trying to get data from IPCC for unpublished studies. So here's a short summary of my correspondence with IPCC.
On August 1, 2005, I was invited by IPCC to act as a reviewer. (I guess this makes me one of the 2500 scientists who support IPCC conclusions, although my review comments have all been ignored as far as I can tell.) "You have been nominated to serve as an Expert Reviewer for the Working Group I contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. The first draft of this report will be available for expert review from Friday, 9 September 2005, with all review comments due by Friday, 4 November 2005."
I accepted. In September 2005, I noticed that the Paleoclimate chapter cited two then unpublished studies by D'Arrigo et al (later D'Arrigo et al 2006) and Hegerl et al (later Hegerl et al J Clim 2006). In order to carry out my responsibilities as a reviewer, I wanted to see the supporting data for these studies and I accordingly wrote to the IPCC Technical Services Unit at UCAR in Boulder on Sep 20, 2005 as follows: "I have been unable to locate supplementary information or data archives for several of the articles posted at the pdf location for Chapter 6 and would appreciate assistance in this regard.
1) Hegerl et al, submitted. Can you provide me with an ftp location for the proxy data used in this study (which does not even list the proxies used) or post it at your website.
2) D'Arrigo et al, submitted. Again, this data has not been archived at WDCP. Can you provide me with an ftp location for the proxy data used in this study or post it at your website."
On Sep 22, 2005, Martin Manning of the IPCC/UCAR TSU wrote back refusing to provide this data in the following terms: "It is normal practice that expert reviewers of scientific works check the references given and the way they are used. We certainly expect this during the review of the first draft of our report and are grateful that you have identified an issue that the authors will need to deal with in the next draft if that can not be done now.
The second issue is availability of data used in cited literature. As you have recognized some of this is available at data centers. Often the original authors of the cited papers will release their data on request. However, the IPCC process assesses published literature, it does not involve carrying out research, nor do we have the mandate or resources to operate as a clearing house for the massive amounts of data that are used in the climate science community or referred to in the literature used by our authors. Given the many different approaches to intellectual property and data release in different countries and agencies such an undertaking would in any case not be possible."
I was obviously unsatisfied with their failure to provide supporting data and re-iterated my request for supporting data as follows: "My request for data pertains to two papers which are presently unpublished and for which the data is unarchived. One of the papers does not even list the data used. I request that you simply contact the authors who submitted the articles in question and ask him/her to provide an FTP location for the data so that it can be reviewed. The request can be made through a simple email and does not require resources beyond those available to you. You could have submitted the request as quickly as it took you to draft your reply to me. If the authors refuse to provide their data pursuant to a request from you, then that would be a factor in my review, as it should be for IPCC itself, as to whether the article should be referenced by IPCC."
The next day, Sep 23, 2005, Manning made the following shirty reply: "Let me repeat - If you wish to obtain data used in a paper then you should make a direct request to the original authors yourself. It would be inappropriate for the IPCC to become involved in that communication and I have no intention of allowing the IPCC support unit to provide you with what would in effect be a secretarial service. There are over 1200 other scientists on our list of reviewers and we simply can not get involved in providing special services for each. I gave you the courtesy of a detailed response earlier to ensure there was no confusion about our process which is my responsibility. Acting as an intermediary with other scientists is not. I will not be responding to further correspondence on this matter." ...
FULL ARTICLE here
Does CO2 really drive global warming?
I dont believe that it does. To the contrary, if you apply the IFF testif-and-only-if or necessary-and-sufficientthe outcome would appear to be exactly the reverse. Rather than the rising levels of carbon dioxide driving up the temperature, the logical conclusion is that it is the rising temperature that is driving up the CO2 level. Of course, this raises a raft of questions, but they are all answerable. What is particularly critical is distinguishing between the observed phenomenon, or the what, from the governing mechanism, or the why. Confusion between these two would appear to be the source of much of the noise in the global warming debate.
In applying the IFF test, we can start with the clear correlation between the global CO2 profile and the corresponding temperature signature. There is now in the literature the report of a 400,000-year sequence clearly showing, as a phenomenon, that they go upand downtogether (1). The correlation is clear and accepted. But the causation, the mechanism, is something else: Which is driving which?
Logically, there are four possible explanations, but only two need serious consideration, unless they both fail.
- Case 1: CO2 drives the temperature, as is currently most frequently asserted; and
- Case 2: Temperature drives the level of CO2.
Both appear at first to be possible, but both then generate crucial origin and supplementary questions. For Case 1, the origin question is: What is the independent source of CO2 that drives the CO2 level both up and down, and which in turn, somehow, is presumed to drive the temperature up and down? For Case 2, it is: What drives the temperature, and if this then drives the CO2, where does the CO2 come from? For Case 2, the questions are answerable; but for Case 1, they are not.
Consider Case 2. This directly introduces global warming behavior. Is global warming, as a separate and independent phenomenon, in progress? The answer, as I heard it in geology class 50 years ago, was yes, and I have seen nothing since then to contradict that position. To the contrary, as further support, there is now documentation (that was only fragmentary 50 years ago) of an 850,000-year global-temperature sequence, showing that the temperature is oscillating with a period of 100,000 years, and with an amplitude that has risen, in that time, from about 5 °F at the start to about 10 °F today (meaning the latest 100,000-year period) (2). We are currently in a rise that started 25,000 years ago and, reasonably, can be expected to peak very shortly.
On the shorter timescales of 1000 years and 100 years, further temperature oscillations can be seen, but of much smaller amplitude, down to 1 and 0.5 °F in those two cases. Nevertheless, the overall trend is clearly up, even through the Little Ice Age (~13501900) following the Medieval Warm Period. So the global warming phenomenon is here, with a very long history, and we are in it. But what is the driver?
Arctic Ocean model
The postulated driver, or mechanism, developed some 30 years ago to account for the million-year temperature oscillations, is best known as the Arctic Ocean model (2). According to this model, the temperature variations are driven by an oscillating ice cap in the northern polar regions. The crucial element in the conceptual formulation of this mechanism was the realization that such a massive ice cap could not have developed, and then continued to expand through that development, unless there was a major source of moisture close by to supply, maintain, and extend the cap. The only possible moisture source was then identified as the Arctic Ocean, which, therefore, had to be opennot frozen overduring the development of the ice ages. It then closed again, interrupting the moisture supply by freezing over.
So the model we now have is that if the Arctic Ocean is frozen over, as is the case today, the existing ice cap is not being replenished and must shrink, as it is doing today. As it does so, the Earth can absorb more of the Suns radiation and therefore will heat upglobal warmingas it is doing today, so long as the Arctic Ocean is closed. When it is warm enough for the ocean to open, which oceanographic (and media) reports say is evidently happening right now, then the ice cap can begin to re-form.
As it expands, the ice increasingly reflects the incoming (shorter-wave) radiation from the sun, so that the atmosphere cools at first. But then, the expanding ice cap reduces the radiative (longer-wave) loss from the Earth, acting as an insulator, so that the Earth below cools more slowly and can keep the ocean open as the ice cap expands. This generates out-of-sync oscillations between atmosphere and Earth. The Arctic Ocean trip behavior at the temperature extremes, allowing essentially discontinuous change in direction of the temperature, is identified as a bifurcation system with potential for analysis as such. The suggested trip times for the change are interesting: They were originally estimated at about 500 years, then reduced to 50 years and, most recently, down to 5 years (2). So, if the ocean is opening right now, we could possibly start to see the temperature reversal under way in about 10 years.
What we have here is a sufficient mechanistic explanation for the dominant temperature fluctuations and, particularly, for the current global warming risewithout the need for CO2 as a driver. Given that pattern, the observed CO2 variations then follow, as a driven outcome, mainly as the result of change in the dynamic equilibrium between the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and its solution in the sea. The numbers are instructive. In 1995, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) data on the carbon balance showed ~90 gigatons (Gt) of carbon in annual quasi-equilibrium exchange between sea and atmosphere, and an additional 60-Gt exchange between vegetation and atmosphere, giving a total of ~150 Gt (3). This interpretation of the sea as the major source is also in line with the famous Mauna Loa CO2 profile for the past 40 years, which shows the consistent season-dependent variation of 56 ppm, up and down, throughout the yearwhen the average global rise is only 1 ppm/year.
In the literature, this oscillation is attributed to seasonal growing behavior on the mainland (4), which is mostly China, >2000 mi away, but no such profile with that amplitude is known to have been reported at any mainland location. Also, the amplitude would have to fall because of turbulent diffusive exchange during transport over the 2000 mi from the mainland to Hawaii, but again there is lack of evidence for such behavior. The fluctuation can, however, be explained simply from study of solution equilibria of CO2 in water as due to emission of CO2 from and return to the sea around Hawaii governed by a ±10 °F seasonal variation in the sea temperature.
Impact of industrialization
The next matter is the impact of fossil fuel combustion. Returning to the IPCC data and putting a rational variation as noise of ~5 Gt on those numbers, this float is on the order of the additionalalmost trivial (<5%)annual contribution of 56 Gt from combustion of fossil fuels. This means that fossil fuel combustion cannot be expected to have any significant influence on the system unless, to introduce the next point of focus, the radiative balance is at some extreme or bifurcation point that can be tripped by small concentration changes in the radiation-absorbingemitting gases in the atmosphere. Can that include CO2?
This now starts to address the necessity or only-if elements of the problem. The question focuses on whether CO2 in the atmosphere can be a dominant, or only-if radiative-balance gas, and the answer to that is rather clearly no. The detailed support for that statement takes the argument into some largely esoteric areas of radiative behavior, including the analytical solution of the SchusterSchwarzschild Integral Equation of Transfer that governs radiative exchange (57), but the outcome is clear.
The central point is that the major absorbing gas in the atmosphere is water, not CO2, and although CO2 is the only other significant atmospheric absorbing gas, it is still only a minor contributor because of its relatively low concentration. The radiative absorption cross sections for water and CO2 are so similar that their relative influence depends primarily on their relative concentrations. Indeed, although water actually absorbs more strongly, for many engineering calculations the concentrations of the two gases are added, and the mixture is treated as a single gas.
In the atmosphere, the molar concentration of CO2 is in the range of 350400 ppm. Water, on the other hand, has a very large variation but, using the 60/60 (60% relative humidity [RH] at 60 °F) value as an average, then from the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engineers standard psychrometric chart, the weight ratio of water to (dry) air is ~0.0065, or roughly 10,500 ppm. Compared with CO2, this puts water, on average, at 2530 times the (molar) concentration of the CO2, but it can range from a 1:1 ratio to >100:1.
Even closer focus on water is given by solution of the SchusterSchwarzschild equation applied to the U.S. Standard Atmosphere profiles for the variation of temperature, pressure, and air density with elevation (8). The results show that the average absorption coefficient obtained for the atmosphere closely corresponds to that for the 5.67.6-µm water radiation band, when water is in the concentration range 6080% RHon target for atmospheric conditions. The absorption coefficient is 12 orders of magnitude higher than the coefficient values for the CO2 bands at a concentration of 400 ppm. This would seem to eliminate CO2 and thus provide closure to that argument.
This overall position can be summarized by saying that water accounts, on average, for >95% of the radiative absorption. And, because of the variation in the absorption due to water variation, anything future increases in CO2 might do, water will already have done. The common objection to this argument is that the wide fluctuations in water concentration make an averaging (for some reason) impermissible. Yet such averaging is applied without objection to global temperatures, when the actual temperature variation across the Earth from poles to equator is roughly 100 to +100 °F, and a change on the average of ±1 °F is considered major and significant. If this averaging procedure can be applied to the atmospheric temperature, it can be applied to the atmospheric water content; and if it is denied for water, it must, likewise, be denied for temperaturein that case we dont have an identified problem!
What the evidence shows
So what we have on the best current evidence is that
- global temperatures are currently rising;
- the rise is part of a nearly million-year oscillation with the current rise beginning some 25,000 years ago;
- the trip or bifurcation behavior at the temperature extremes is attributable to the opening and closing of the Arctic Ocean;
- there is no need to invoke CO2 as the source of the current temperature rise;
- the dominant source and sink for CO2 are the oceans, accounting for about two-thirds of the exchange, with vegetation as the major secondary source and sink;
- if CO2 were the temperatureoscillation source, no mechanismother than the separately driven temperature (which would then be a circular argument)has been proposed to account independently for the CO2 rise and fall over a 400,000-year period;
- the CO2 contribution to the atmosphere from combustion is within the statistical noise of the major sea and vegetation exchanges, so a priori, it cannot be expected to be statistically significant;
- wateras a gas, not a condensate or cloudis the major radiative absorbingemitting gas (averaging 95%) in the atmosphere, and not CO2;
- determination of the radiation absorption coefficients identifies water as the primary absorber in the 5.67.6-µm water band in the 6080% RH range; and
- the absorption coefficients for the CO2 bands at a concentration of 400 ppm are 1 to 2 orders of magnitude too small to be significant even if the CO2 concentrations were doubled.
The outcome is that the conclusions of advocates of the CO2-driver theory are evidently back to front: Its the temperature that is driving the CO2. If there are flaws in these propositions, Im listening; but if there are objections, lets have them with the numbers.
References
- Sigman, M.; Boyle, E. A. Nature 2000, 407, 859869.
- Calder, N. The Weather Machine; Viking Press: New York, 1974.
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change; Houghton, J. T., Meira Filho, L. G., Callender, B. A., Harris, N., Kattenberg, A., Maskell, K., Eds.; Cam bridge University Press: Cambridge, U.K., 1996.
- Hileman, B. Chem. Eng. News 1992, 70 (17), 719.
- Schuster, A. Astrophysics J. 1905, 21, 122.
- Schwarzschild, K. Gesell. Wiss. Gottingen; Nachr. Math.Phys. Klasse 1906, 41.
- Schwarzschild, K. Berliner Ber. Math. Phys. Klasse 1914, 1183.
- Essenhigh, R. H. On Radiative Transfer in Solids. American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics Thermophysics Specialist Conference, New Orleans, April 1720, 1967; Paper 67-287; American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics: Reston, VA, 1967.
- Calder, N. The Weather Machine; Viking Press: New York, 1974.
The author above, Robert H. Essenhigh is the E. G. Bailey Professor of Energy Conversion in the Department of Mechanical Engineering, Ohio State University, 206 W. 18th Ave., Columbus, OH 43210; 614-292-0403; essenhigh.1@osu.edu.
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Water Vapor Rules the Greenhouse System
Just how much of the Greenhouse Effect is caused by human activity? It is about 0.28%, if water vapor is taken into account-- about 5.53%, if not. This point is so crucial to the debate over global warming that how water vapor is or isn't factored into an analysis of Earth's greenhouse gases makes the difference between describing a significant human contribution to the greenhouse effect, or a negligible one.
Water vapor constitutes Earth's most significant greenhouse gas, accounting for about 95% of Earth's greenhouse effect (4). Interestingly, many "facts and figures' regarding global warming completely ignore the powerful effects of water vapor in the greenhouse system, carelessly (perhaps, deliberately) overstating human impacts as much as 20-fold.
Water vapor is 99.999% of natural origin. Other atmospheric greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and miscellaneous other gases (CFC's, etc.), are also mostly of natural origin (except for the latter, which is mostly anthropogenic).
Human activites contribute slightly to greenhouse gas concentrations through farming, manufacturing, power generation, and transportation. However, these emissions are so dwarfed in comparison to emissions from natural sources we can do nothing about, that even the most costly efforts to limit human emissions would have a very small-- perhaps undetectable-- effect on global climate.
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GREENIE "CHEMICAL" PHOBIA
Democrats in Congress have packed $20 billion of pork into the Iraq war spending bill, so why not lard on an all-politics solution to securing the nation's chemical facilities.
"Toxic" chemicals, as aficionados of endless political crusades know, have been a target of the environmental left for decades. After 9/11, they saw an opportunity. They've argued that the path to chemical security lies in requiring the industry to use "inherently safer technologies." Guess what "inherently safer" means: Banning some chemicals or requiring substitutes.
The substances greens consider most "unsafe" happen to be the ones they've been trying to eliminate for years, for reasons having nothing to do with terrorists. Inconveniently, most of these chemicals, such as chlorine, serve vital public-health purposes and have no substitutes. Opposed to this one-size-fits-all mandate for an entire industry stands the Department of Homeland Security. Late last year it issued broad draft regulations that laid out stringent standards for chemical-plant security, but gave companies flexibility to decide how to meet those standards.
This approach makes sense, because what we call the "chemical industry" is, like chemistry itself, various and complex. Different companies specialize in different chemicals, which have different security risks. Since 9/11, the industry has spent more than $3.5 billion on security measures. Rather than force each firm to start over with straight-jacket procedures, the Administration would build on the industry's specialized knowledge, giving it the freedom to develop innovative solutions.
Up to now, the green groups have had no success getting the government or previous Republican Congress to buy into banning chemicals to achieve "inherently safer" technologies. So they turned to the states. Three -- New Jersey, New York and Maryland -- have developed chemical security programs. New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine, who as a Senator led an unsuccessful chemical-ban charge, is pushing to require facilities in his state to use "inherently safer" technologies.
The greens' banning-as-security strategy in the states has hit a snag: Homeland Security's draft regulations reserve the right of the federal government to pre-empt state laws in certain situations. The argument for pre-emption is national security, as with port or airline security. But after years of siccing the Environmental Protection Agency on their targets, the greens have turned to the new Democratic majority to give them "federalism."
And so a provision in last week's House Iraq war supplemental would block DHS from approving a chemical facility plan unless it "exceeds" state standards. New Jersey Senator Frank Lautenberg has included a provision that gives states the right to go beyond the federal government.
Let's hope Senate Republicans get these chemical provisions excised from the final war-spending bill. Homeland Security is within two weeks of issuing its final rules. Throwing a monkeywrench now will merely guarantee more years of wrangling over chemical security rules that should have been settled long ago. If greens and Democrats want to rid the world of chemicals for environmental reasons, then engage in an open debate about the pros and cons rather than waving "terror" as a ruse.
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Some lightweight environmentalism in Australia
Many Australians want to feel they are doing something about global warming, but mere tokenism is alive and well
ABOUT dinnertime tonight, thousands of households have promised to turn off their electric lights for an hour as a symbol of their personal commitment to reduce the risk of climate change. Earth Hour is the brainchild of environment group WWF-Australia, which has joined forces with the Fairfax newspaper The Sydney Morning Herald -- but apparently not The Age in Melbourne -- for the latest in a series of feel-good campaigns pitched at engaging middle Australia on the hot issue in the environment debate. It's like a telethon where you don't have to donate money: all Sydneysiders are being asked to do is turn off their lights between 7.30pm and 8.30pm to "demonstrate how simple actions can make a world of difference if everyone takes part". The Australian Conservation Foundation has teamed with Channel7 for Lights Off Australia, which asks Australians on the first Wednesday of each month to turn off lights overnight that aren't needed.
Sydney's Earth Hour tonight is, by design, an act of mass symbolism. Separating genuine participants from those going out to dinner or watching the Sydney Swans, Waratahs or red-hot Rabbitohs may be more problematic. The emissions reductions from even half of Sydney going without lights for an hour will be almost indiscernible. WWF-Australia chief executive Greg Bourne has been campaigning for months to sell the event, and says its purpose is to sustain pressure on governments rather than deliver big cuts in emissions. If the idea is to galvanise public support, Earth Hour is already too late.
Yesterday the Climate Institute issued the latest in a series of reports on the attitude of Australians to climate change policy. Its survey of 1000 people last weekend claims 80per cent support for a government plan to cut greenhouse pollution with enforceable targets for 2020 and 2050. The report, which neatly sidesteps issues related to the cost of such reforms, also says Australians understand climate change is already happening and are particularly concerned about water resources and the impact of water restrictions.
This follows the release of a global survey by the Lowy Institute this month, revealing widespread agreement among communities across the world that climate change is a pressing problem. Twelve countries, including Australia, were asked whether steps should be taken to address climate change, and all but one of them favoured action. Australia reported the largest majority in favour of measures to combat global warming (92 per cent). "But awareness is not action," Bourne says. "Awareness and action is what really matters. The Government has been aware of these issues for a long time, and ... have taken very little action, even though their rhetoric says they have taken a lot."
Bourne defends the highly symbolic campaign, rejecting the idea that it risks trivialising the scale and complexity of the multi-trillion-dollar global economic and technological challenge by simply encouraging people to switch off their lights. "People know intuitively that changing a light bulb helps, but it doesn't do it. "They require governments to lead, they are demanding of government and business to lead," he says.
For about 1.5 billion people on the planet, every hour is Earth Hour. And that's at the heart of the problem. Astonishing economic growth in China and now India is dragging millions out of poverty, giving them electricity and water, and in the process adding incrementally to the release of greenhouse gases. China is expected to become the largest emitter of greenhouse gases by the end of the decade. Emissions from developing economies are nearly equal to those from developed economies, and bigger if you include land clearing.
Accelerated retro-fitting of the world's energy supply while simultaneously developing and installing new technologies is a mind-boggling exercise. For Australia the problem is magnified: our economy is still highly dependent on low-cost fossil fuels. The economic pain implicit in such a reform program has the late-moving Howard Government wincing as it rolls out a suite of symbolic measures to buy time until it can find a policy pathway that can neutralise the issue in the lead-up to this year's election. First it was a ban on incandescent light bulbs; this week it's a $200million, five-year plan to help developing countries slow land clearing, said to contribute about 20 per cent of greenhouse emissions.
Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists spokesman Peter Cosier says such initiatives are always welcome, but attempts by developed countries during the past two decades to curb land clearing have not been particularly effective. "This will not end the clearing of tropical forests," he tells Inquirer. "That will still continue. The question is at what rate and at what scale."
This reminds us that poverty is a key enemy of the environment. The head of the University of Melbourne's school of forests and ecosystems, Rod Keenan, says such measures can merely shift land clearing to other countries without the right institutional structures to create incentives in the developing world. "The challenge is going to be in the implementation. While many people have tried to tackle the issues around sustainable forest management and illegal logging over the past 10 to 20 years, the impact of those activities has generally been pretty small," he says.
Federal Labor leader Kevin Rudd is equally happy to stick with symbolism for now, as he tries to retain his early high ground on climate change while not spooking business by locking in expensive and unworkable solutions. This week he offered to upgrade the solar cells rebate scheme for households, one of the most symbolic, expensive and inequitable subsidies in the climate change space. Existing technology comes at a starting price of $12,000 per household less a partial rebate, with a 12 to 15-year payback in power savings, and as such household solar panels using existing photovoltaic technology remain an indulgence rather than a serious solution. But better technology may be on the way.
Federal Labor's climate change summit with the states in Canberra today will be a full house, with strong attendance from industry, science and the environmental movement. While gathering such a broad church is a political coup, keeping them in the same tent may be more problematic. It's hard to see how either Rudd or Opposition environment spokesman Peter Garrett can reconcile the deep concerns of the coal and metals processing industries with the aspirations of the Wilderness Society or the Australia Institute.
Labor will be encouraged that all sections of the policy spectrum see it increasingly as a serious player and potential post-November government. But, like a meeting of the Hatfields and McCoys, keeping these fiercely opposing sides from derailing the symbolism of consensus building that Rudd is hoping to create may prove more difficult. Rudd is already working hard to open up Labor's existing three mines policy at next month's national conference. Climate change may yet become a more thorny challenge for his leadership and credibility with middle Australia, which might be happy to turn its lights off for an hour, but is unlikely to have much appetite for policies that risk keeping them off.
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Many people would like to be kind to others so Leftists exploit that with their nonsense about equality. Most people want a clean, green environment so Greenies exploit that by inventing all sorts of far-fetched threats to the environment. But for both, the real motive is generally to promote themselves as wiser and better than everyone else, truth regardless.
Global warming has taken the place of Communism as an absurdity that "liberals" will defend to the death regardless of the evidence showing its folly. Evidence never has mattered to real Leftists
For more postings from me, see TONGUE-TIED, EDUCATION WATCH, POLITICAL CORRECTNESS WATCH, FOOD & HEALTH SKEPTIC, GUN WATCH, SOCIALIZED MEDICINE, AUSTRALIAN POLITICS, DISSECTING LEFTISM, IMMIGRATION WATCH and EYE ON BRITAIN. My Home Pages are here or here or here. Email me (John Ray) here. For times when blogger.com is playing up, there are mirrors of this site here and here.
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