Global warming could increase a climate phenomenon known as wind shear that inhibits Atlantic hurricanes, a potentially positive result of climate change, according to new research released on Tuesday. The study, to be published on Wednesday in Geophysical Research Letters, found that climate model simulations show a "robust increase" in wind shear in the tropical Atlantic during the 21st century from global warming. Wind shear, a difference in wind speed or direction at different altitudes, tends to tear apart tropical cyclones, preventing nascent ones from growing and already-formed hurricanes from becoming the monster storms that cause the most damage.
The effect of global warming on wind shear is similar to the impact of El Nino, the periodic eastern Pacific warm-water phenomenon that tends to put a damper on Atlantic storms. The sudden development of El Nino was credited for an unexpectedly mild Atlantic season last year, when only 10 storms formed. Debate on the likelihood that human-generated climate change contributes to hurricane development has raged since the 2005 Atlantic season, which produced a record-shattering 28 tropical storms and hurricanes. That season saw some of the most powerful hurricanes in history and produced Katrina, which killed 1,500 people and caused $80 billion damage on the U.S. Gulf Coast. The hurricane threat roiled global oil and gas markets.
Source
Kilimanjaro not melting after all
A fresh assessment suggests the famous ice fields on Africa's tallest mountain will be around for decades yet. Recent concerns that climate warming would rob Mount Kilimanjaro of all its glaciers within 20 years are overly pessimistic, say Austrian scientists. Their weather station data and modelling work indicate the tropical ice should last well beyond 2040.
Precipitation and not temperature is the key to the white peak's future, the University of Innsbruck-led team says. "About five years ago Kilimanjaro was being used as an icon for global warming. We know now that this was far too simplistic a view," said Thomas Moelg. "We have done different kinds of modelling and we expect the plateau glaciers to be gone roughly within 30 or 40 years from now, but we have a certain expectation that the slope glaciers may last longer," added colleague Georg Kaser.
The group's assessment was presented here at the European Geosciences Union General Assembly meeting. It acts as a counterpoint to the most doom-laden projections for the 5,895m-high (19,340ft) peak, which draws thousands of tourists intrigued by the idea of seeing ice just three degrees south of the equator.
The research team has been using three automated instrument stations on the top of the mountain to collect continuous data on temperature, pressure, solar radiation, humidity and wind. The recording effort was in position late last year to witness heavy snowfall, which will have led to a slight increase in Kilimanjaro's overall ice volume. This glacier growth is only temporary, however. The mountain's ice is dependent on the pulses of moist air that sweep across from the Indian Ocean.
Since the late 1800s, these have become less frequent, and the regular snows that would maintain the ice fields are now a rare occurrence in what has become a much drier climate in East Africa. Today, the total ice extent - on the slopes and on the plateau - is about 2.5 sq km, down from more than eight sq km in the early 1900s. Some scientists have drawn a fairly straight-line curve and forecast a rapid final retreat to a totally bare mountain. But the Innsbruck team is more optimistic about the medium term having now put real field measurements into a comprehensive modelling programme. "Glacier recession has been a feature on Kilimanjaro for more than 100 years, but this is the first time we really have a precise understanding of the physical processes that control the glacier-climate interaction on Africa's highest mountain," said Dr Moelg.
This work emphasises the significance of the lack of precipitation (250mm per year on the summit) versus temperature (a mean of -7C). It indicates that glacier mass loss would be about four times higher if precipitation decreased by 20% than if air temperature on the mountain rose by 1C. Furthermore, it suggests that two-thirds of the ice that is lost goes straight into the atmosphere through sublimation (the direct conversion of snow and ice to water vapour). "In recent years many people have talked about 'the melting glaciers of Kilimanjaro'. If one wants to be more precise, I would call it the 'evaporating glaciers of Kilimanjaro'," said Dr Moelg.
This confirms the view that the African peak does not play an important role as a reservoir for water, unlike in the Andes and the Himalayas where some lowland cities and agricultural systems are dependent on summer melt high in the mountains. "This is not a factor at all at Kilimanjaro and it never has been," said Professor Kaser. "If you brought all the remaining ice down to the Amboseli National Park and melted it, the water would only cover the park to a depth of one or one-and-a-half millimetres. There is nothing in terms of water up there."
The Innsbruck research was conducted in collaboration with the University of Otago, New Zealand, and the University of Massachusetts, US. The team stresses that the drying of the East African climate around Kilimanjaro may itself be a regional impact of global climate change.
Source
'Green' rockers lack any cred
FOR all their good intentions, the global Live Earth concerts scheduled for mid-year will still struggle for credibility. The problem: Rock stars. Most are happy enough to preach and tell us how we should live our lives - hitting everything from AIDS to poverty to African adoption and the cancellation of Third World debt - yet, as in this case, their own bona fides often collapse under closer examination.
Already experts are struggling to rationalise the worth of the concerts against the massive amounts of carbon that each will produce; the very enemy the concerts are campaigning against. Britain's University of East Anglia is a world leader in climate change research and there, recently, Dr Keith Tovey said the Wembley concert alone could generate as much as 3000 tonnes of carbon. Considering the average Brit generates just nine tonnes per year, and the average Australian somewhere similar, those are scary numbers.
Sydney, host of one of the seven worldwide concerts, will produce a smaller carbon total but only because the 42,000 seat Aussie Stadium holds less than half the 90,000-strong Wembley. There will be five more concerts around the world - in Tokyo, New Jersey, Johannesburg, Rio de Janeiro and Shanghai, and each will spew their carbon into the air even as the rock stars climb on stage to tell us to ride pushbikes to work or plant a tree.
Leading the charge in Australia will be Midnight Oil, the John Butler Trio, Wolfmother and maybe even Silverchair. The concerts are the brainchild of the reinvented Al Gore and music promoter Kevin Wall, the man behind the Live 8 concerts two years ago that took up the war on poverty. Like Live 8, Live Earth will be broadcast to an estimated two billion people worldwide, and has already committed the likes of Madonna, Sting, Red Hot Chili Peppers, Bon Jovi, Alicia Keys, Duran Duran, Melissa Etheridge and Genesis, along with the Australian stars. Even before the concert kicks off, though, there are some serious assaults taking place on the stars' credibility. For example, before she joined the crusade, Madonna's Confessions tour last year produced 440 tonnes of carbon dioxide in four months. The Red Hot Chili Peppers also staged a six-month, 42-date tour last year and did most of their travelling on board their private jet. The jet alone produced 220 tonnes of carbon dioxide.
Perhaps most hypocritical of all is Gore, the self-appointed saviour of the planet who moved on from politics to make the Oscar-winning environmental documentary An Inconvenient Truth. Just last month the Tennessee Centre for Research Policy did a carbon audit of his home, revealing the former US vice-president had been outrageously wasteful in his personal life. Over the past two years his home consumed energy more than 20 times the US average, yet Gore didn't even have the courtesy to blush when he announced the Live Earth concerts last week. "We hope the energy created by Live Earth will jump-start a massive public education effort," he said. "Live Earth will help us reach a tipping point that's needed to move corporations and governments to take decisive action to solve the climate crisis."
If Gore, as evidenced by his private lifestyle, isn't willing to buy what he is preaching then how many stars of the show are also selling a lie? Indeed, how much of their private excess will the rock stars, who always travel with an entourage, be willing to give up to make the sale? If getting to the venue means giving up their private jets to fly commercial, are they prepared to do it? What if it means climbing on a more eco-friendly train instead? Or is saving the planet, when it gets down to it, really somebody else's problem? You know ... I'm all right Jack, I'm doing my bit. It makes you wonder how much of Live Earth is a PR con.
Part of the con is that each star will "earn" carbon credits during the concerts. A tree will be planted, for example, to offset the carbon generated. Yet can anyone really see Madonna planting a tree if there is no news crew around? There will be hybrid vehicles for travel, food and drink will be sold in biodegradable packaging and CFL (compact fluorescent) lightbulbs will be used where possible. Recycling bins will flood the landscape.
Perhaps the true hero to emerge in all this could be environmental expert John Picard. Signed to overlook the greening of Live Earth, Picard's deal runs for a further 12 months after the concerts. His job is to work with the rock stars and make sure they keep their promises well after the glory has faded. He is a reminder that this is a long-term job, not just a feel-good moment.
Source
UN rebuff for Britain on global warming
BRITAIN has run into a wall of reluctance spearheaded by China after telling the United Nations that there are few greater threats to global security than climate change. The British Foreign Secretary, Margaret Beckett, chaired the UN Security Council's first debate on global warming on Tuesday. Fifty-two countries lined up to speak in the debate, which Britain initiated as it holds the rotating presidency of the council. "This is an issue which threatens the peace and security of the whole planet - this has to be the right place to debate it," Mrs Beckett said.
But China's deputy ambassador to the UN, Liu Zhenmin, was blunt in rejecting the session. "The developing countries believe that [the] Security Council does not have the professional competence for handling climate change, nor is it the right decision-making place for extensive participation," Mr Liu said. China and Russia, among others, warned that the council's mandate was limited to peace and security. So did Pakistan, on behalf of 130 developing nations, which argued that the council was encroaching on more representative bodies, such as the 192-member General Assembly.
Inside the forum, Mrs Beckett said that recent scientific evidence reinforced, or even exceeded, the worst fears about climate change. She warned of migration on an unprecedented scale because of flooding, disease and famine. Drought and crop failure would also cause intensified competition for food, water and energy, and result in economic destruction comparable to World War II or the Great Depression. "Climate change is a security issue but it is not a matter of narrow national security - it has a new dimension," she said. "This is about our collective security in a fragile and increasingly interdependent world."
Mrs Beckett quoted a remark made by the President of Uganda, Yoweri Museveni, that global warming was "an act of aggression by the rich against the poor". She was supported by the UN Secretary-General, Ban Ki-moon. "Projected changes in the Earth's climate are not only an environmental concern," Mr Ban said. "Issues of energy and climate change can have implications for peace and security."
British diplomats said the intention of Tuesday's session was to lift climate change to the top of the international agenda. Britain has pointed to the violence in the Darfur region of Sudan as an example of conflict partly caused by land degradation. The Maldives, Bangladesh and other low-lying countries more susceptible to flooding and climate change also pleaded with industrialised nations for action.
Last November, the Stern report suggested that 200 million people could be displaced by rising sea levels and drought by 2050. It said the global economy could shrink by one-fifth. Even Osama bin Laden accused the US in 2002 of harming nature "more than any nation in history". China has created artificial snow in Tibet after experts warned of melting glaciers in the Himalayas. The Tibetan meteorological station had created a fall of 2.2 millimetres, which accumulated to one centimetre, last week, about 4000 metres above sea level in northern Tibet, the Xinhua news agency said yesterday.
Source
***************************************
Many people would like to be kind to others so Leftists exploit that with their nonsense about equality. Most people want a clean, green environment so Greenies exploit that by inventing all sorts of far-fetched threats to the environment. But for both, the real motive is generally to promote themselves as wiser and better than everyone else, truth regardless.
Global warming has taken the place of Communism as an absurdity that "liberals" will defend to the death regardless of the evidence showing its folly. Evidence never has mattered to real Leftists
For more postings from me, see TONGUE-TIED, EDUCATION WATCH, POLITICAL CORRECTNESS WATCH, FOOD & HEALTH SKEPTIC, GUN WATCH, SOCIALIZED MEDICINE, AUSTRALIAN POLITICS, DISSECTING LEFTISM, IMMIGRATION WATCH and EYE ON BRITAIN. My Home Pages are here or here or here. Email me (John Ray) here. For times when blogger.com is playing up, there are mirrors of this site here and here.
*****************************************
Jim Hansen and his twin
No comments:
Post a Comment