Almost by itself, the withholding of their raw data by climate "scientists" tells us that they are not scientists. Scientific co-operation in such matters should normally be absolute and any persistent withholding will normally draw a rebuke in the literature (e.g. here) and make the "findings" suspect. What have the Warmist "scientists" got to fear? From the Mann "hockeystick" debacle I think we KNOW what they have to fear. That's why they fight tooth and nail to keep their "data" secret. The email below from D.J. Keenan [doug.keenan@informath.org] of http://www.informath.org details how hard it can be to prise examinable data from Warmists:
One of the big problems in global warming studies, and in science generally, is that research data is often not available to outsiders. Instead, researchers tend to hoard the data for themselves and their friends (who are reluctant to be critical).
Last month, Steve McIntyre (of Hockey Stick fame) began a battle against this by filing an FOI Act request for data used in an important global warming study. The study was done by Phil Jones (a leading researcher), at the University of East Anglia. McIntyre's request was initially refused in toto by the university. McIntyre then filed an appeal with the university.
Separately, I filed a request for a portion of the same data. At first, the university said they were going to process my request in they same way that they had processed McIntyre's, which I believe to be improper. So I drafted a letter of complaint to the UK Information Commissioner's Office, sent the draft to the university, and asked them to let me know if they believed the letter to be inaccurate.
Yesterday, April 3rd, McIntyre and I received notices that the university would supply the information that we requested. More details are posted on McIntyre's blog: http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=1323
This could change the way that research is conducted in the UK. The result should be both (i) higher quality, as researchers realize that their analyses will be scrutinized far more closely than has been done in the past, and (ii) much improved cross-fertilization of science. In other words, the potential change for UK science is truly huge.
For what it's worth, I have had some small involvement with one other FOI request for scientific data. This was with the infamous "Gillberg affair" in Sweden. There the researchers fought the request hard and, before the data could be examined, they destroyed it: 100,000 pages covering 15 years of research was lost.
[The Gillberg affair concerned controversial claims made by a prominent Swedish professor. He absolutely refused to let others look at the data which he claimed supported his contentions. He was successfully prosecuted in Sweden for his actions. He was just another puffed-up crook out to make a name for himself by fraud. Some of the Warmists would appear to be near relatives of his -- JR]
Mars warming heats up climate change debate
CLIMATE change sceptics have seized on news that Mars is heating up to back their claim that humans are not causing Earthly global warming. The research comes from US planetary scientists, who suggest the Red Planet warmed by about 0.65C from the 1970s to the 1990s, similar to Earth's 0.6C average temperature rise during the 20th Century.
"It could be coincidental or it might be the needle in the haystack," said climatologist William Kininmonth, former head of the National Climate Centre in Melbourne. "It's an interesting observation, as it's the same time period as Earth's temperature has been warming." Mr Kininmonth said the research, published in the journal Nature, showed there was enough natural climate variability to account for global warming on Earth.
Not so, claimed Neville Nicholls, a climate scientist at Monash University in Melbourne. "The paper is interesting but it hasn't got anything to do with the question of human impact on global warming on Earth," Dr Nicholls said. "It's not an excuse to argue that humans are not causing global warming on Earth." [But he does not say why!]
The research was done by a team led by Lori Fenton of the NASA Ames Research Centre at Moffett Field, California. They used a computer model based on those devised to study global warming on Earth, adding Martian features such as a cold, airless surface and a shifting south polar ice cap while subtracting Earth's oceans and atmosphere. Dr Fenton's group found that annual variation in the solar radiation reflected from the surface of Mars - its "albedo" - contributed to the warming by causing more blowing dust. Over the past 30 years the dust swept clean large swaths of the planet's surface, reducing reflected radiation. The result was a "positive feedback loop" between dust, wind, albedo and temperature.
"It's a nice piece of work," said UNSW climate scientist Andy Pitman. "But there are no implications for Earth." Professor Pitman was lead author of the climate modelling section of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report released in February. [Aha!] Professor Pitman disputed Associate Professor Franks' claim that changes in Earth's albedo had a bigger influence on climate than greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide. "Albedo is included in climate models," Professor Pitman said. "It can have a local effect but cannot explain the observed warming record." The Nature paper comes on the eve of the second report from the fourth IPCC review, set to be released tomorrow night.
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Why won't Al Gore debate?
Post lifted from Heartland -- which see for links
In recent months, former vice president Al Gore has become the world's most recognized advocate of the theory that human greenhouse gas emissions are altering the world's climate and could cause catastrophic damage if not arrested and reduced. He is getting hundreds of millions of dollars in free publicity from the press and from environmental groups that echo his warning. But Al Gore refuses to debate those who say global warming is not a crisis.
Maybe it's because climate alarmists tend to lose when they debate climate realists. Or because most scientists do not support climate alarmism. Lord Monckton of Brenchley, a former advisor to British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, is the latest to challenge Gore to debate. He issued the following challenge on March 14:
The Viscount Monckton of Brenchley presents his compliments to Vice-President Albert Gore and by these presents challenges the said former Vice-President to a head-to-head, internationally-televised debate upon the question "That our effect on climate is not dangerous," to be held in the Library of the Oxford University Museum of Natural History at a date of the Vice-President's choosing.
Forasmuch as it is His Lordship who now flings down the gauntlet to the Vice-President, it shall be the Vice-President's prerogative and right to choose his weapons by specifying the form of the Great Debate. May the Truth win! Magna est veritas, et praevalet.
Lord Monckton is eminently qualified to debate Gore-see here and here for his recent writing on global warming-and Gore thought highly enough of him to respond to one of his essays. Like Gore, Lord Monckton is a prominent figure in the global warming debate who is not a scientist or professional economist. He would seem to be an appropriate and worthy opponent. But Gore refuses to debate Lord Monckton, just as he refuses to debate a growing list of prominent scientists, economists, novelists, and policy experts.
If the scientific debate over global warming is over, as Gore and other climate alarmists so often claim, why is Al Gore afraid to debate? Is it because there is no scientific consensus on the causes or effects of global warming? Is it because a growing number of experts believe we should invest in adapting to global warming-whether it is due to natural or human causes-rather than spend hundreds of billions of dollars trying to stabilize or reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Whatever the reason, we believe Al Gore should debate his critics. If you agree, please ask Al Gore to accept Lord Monckton's challenge.
Climate change report is wrong: Australian professor
Once again, it is only a retired scientist who feels free to speak up
The global scientific report blaming carbon emissions for climate change is based on misconceptions about the Earth's behaviour, says an Australian academic who believes global warming is not caused by mankind. The respected Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report released earlier this year said it was very likely climate change was the result of greenhouse gases produced by human activity.
Emeritus Professor Lance Endersbee has accused the scientific leaders of trying to stifle debate over the causes of climate change. Professor Endersbee, a former dean of engineering and pro-vice chancellor at Monash University, says it is highly probable that increased electromagnetic radiation of the sun is behind global warming. "There are several disturbing aspects of the IPCC report which indicate that the conclusions are based on serious misconceptions about the behaviour of the Earth," Prof Endersbee said in the newsletter New Concepts in Global Tectonics. "The report reflects little understanding of the dynamic relation between the Earth, the Sun and the Cosmos. "In these circumstances it is incredible that some leaders of scientific societies and academies have tried to use their authority to demand acceptance of the IPCC report."
Prof Endersbee said air pollution should be dealt with on a regional level as a separate issue to global warming. "It is ridiculous to assume that the health problems of smog in India and China have global causes, and can be solved by carbon trading in the City of London," he said. Carbon dioxide was not a pollutant and there was no need for a risky emissions market as advocated by the IPCC, Prof Endersbee said. "If it comes to be recognised that global warming has a natural cause, and the fears subside, the value of carbon credits will then drop to zero, and the market in carbon trading will collapse."
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Defending economic growth against green bigotry
A curious thing has happened during the last 30-odd years: economic growth, the source of our affluence and the scourge of poverty, has come under increasing attack by more and more so-called intellectuals, especially in universities and the media. According to these `deep thinkers' the "costs of growth are too high". These critics accuse growth of being responsible for pollution, congestion, environmental degradation, resource depletion, stress, etc. None of these accusations are true. (I consider the last accusation that growth has caused more stress than ever is so stupid that it does not warrant further comment).
To successfully deal with the charges that greens level against economic growth it is vitally important to define growth, the reason for this will be made clear at a later stage. Growth is the increasing accumulation of capital per head of the population. Therefore economies are growing when capital accumulation proceeds faster than population growth. This definition, however, brings us in turn to the nature and role of capital. As the Austrian school has put it: capital is the material means of production. These means form an intricate interwoven heterogeneous structure consisting of complex roundabout stages of production.
The economy grows by adding more and more advanced stages of production to the capital structure. Not only do these roundabout methods of production increase output per head they also (as Ludwig M. Lachmann pointed out) encourage an increasing division of capital which enables us to defy the law of diminishing returns. (Capital and Its Structure, Sheed Andrews and McMeel Inc., 1977, first published in 1955).
Despite erroneous views to the contrary, growth can only be fuelled by savings. There is no way that any economy can accumulate capital goods without current consumption being sacrificed by someone somewhere. This raises the important fact that anti-growth activists generally ignore: the real cost of growth is forgone consumption, nothing else. This means that their assertion that our society is motivated by a growth-at-any-cost mentality is absurd because if this were so then we would never consume - we would literally save all of our income.
Of course, the Green response is that the process of capital accumulation is destroying the earth's environment. This is nonsense. Unfortunately, it is the kind of nonsense that `journalists' give credibility to by uncritically giving its proponents a platform from which they can mislead the public. John MacLeay of The Australian, for example, is one of those journalists who seems to think he is paid to promote green propaganda rather than mere facts and informed opinions.
Some years ago this pillar of journalistic integrity MacLeay uncritically reported on the so-called Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI), which made the patently absurd claim that America's real per capita GDP had fallen to the 1950 level of $US4,000. The authors of this travesty of independent thinking claimed they arrived at their figures by accounting for air pollution, traffic congestion, health, etc., which according to them had deteriorated. To support this anti-growth nonsense,
Now MacLeay, who has now risen to the giddy heights of financial journalism, deferred to Clive Hamilton, executive director of the Australia Institute (an extremist green `think tank') who stated that the report supported "most people's experience of economic growth". As is par for the course, MacLeay did not bother to ask Hamilton by what scientific means he arrived at this conclusion. Nor did this genius note that the authors' dismal assertions about rising air pollution, deteriorating health, etc., are false. This means the authors are either incompetent or dishonest.
If MacLeay had behaved like a real journalist instead of green leftwing hack he would have fact-checked Hamilton's claims. If he had done so he would have learnt that air quality in the US has been steadily improving for a long time and has now reached the state where air pollution is a minor problem, except for scaremongering greens. For example, despite the fact that coal consumption increased by 45 per cent from 1973 to 1988, sulphur dioxide emissions fell by 23 per cent and nitrogen oxides by 14 per cent; during the same period nationwide emissions of lead fell by over 90 per cent. In addition, modern cars now produce 76 per cent less nitrogen oxide and 96 per cent less carbon monoxide and hydrocarbon than cars built in the early 1970s. No wonder pollution data from the EPA shows that air quality in the US has been improving, not declining as claimed by anti-growth greens and their media supporters.
Let's do what lefty journalists seem incapable of doing and this is using a historical perspective. Urban pollution did not start with rapid economic growth, though growth is responsible for reducing it. Historical records show that coal smoke was considered a problem in London even in the thirteenth century. In 1307, Edward I issued a Royal Proclamation restricting the use of coal in an attempt to curb smoke - to no avail. By the seventeenth century London was noted for the black pall created by coal burning. When the Anglo-Dutch war temporarily cut off coal supplies from Newcastle the misery of the poor was particularly noted by contemporaries. (Incidentally, Europe was in the middle of the Little Ice Age at this time. Obviously, the English were not burning enough coal).
The problem of coal smoke continued into the twentieth century when it was finally solved by the benefits of growth, which had already solved a multitude of other problems such as the tens of thousands of metric tonnes of horse manure that had to be taken from city streets each day (a horse produces about 20 kilos of dung per day), not to mention the 300 grams of liquid a horse releases per mile plus the thousands of dead horses that had to be disposed off each year. It takes little to imagine (except for a 'journalist') the risk to public health that the horse once posed.
What is not realised is that man-made pollution is a misallocation problem usually caused by a failure to enforce property rights. When one starts cutting pollution a point is eventually reached where costs further cuts exceed the gains to society. Put another way, beyond the optimum the benefits of cutting pollution are outweighed by the costs. Now cutting pollution involves redirecting capital and labour from the production of other goods and services, i.e., cars, houses, schools, hospitals, etc. These are the real costs of any economic activity, what economists call opportunity costs. This becomes fact particularly clear when even trace elements are treated as dangerous pollutants by green fanatics.
Of late I seem to have been hearing quite a lot about pollution in Beijing and Shanghai. As luck would have it I I recently spent a month in Shanghai during which I did not witness any significant pollution compared with my experience in the 1950s in the UK. Even now I can clearly recall the soot-covered buildings and the density and nastiness of the smog once it had formed. This brings to mind observations of Chateaubriand, a French diplomat, who wrote a vivid account of his impression of London as he approached it from Blackheath in 1822:
...I saw before me the immense skullcap of smoke which covers the city of London. Plunging into the gulf of black mist, as if into one of the mouths of Tartarus, and crossing the whole town, whose streets I recognised, I arrived at the [French] embassy in Portland Place.
Compared with nineteenth century London, and even the industrial city of Birmingham, Shanghai is a graphic example of environmental purity. My point is that from a historical perspective pollution in Shanghai is not nearly as bad as many people think. Moreover, the experience of England demonstrates that air quality can be greatly improved so long as the country is rich enough to invest in the necessary technology.
In his attack on economics, Clive Hamilton asserted that it "places little if any value on sustainability", and went on to make the ludicrous assertion "that the time value of money", its discounted value, "makes it impossible for the market to account for sustainability across generations". Only a thoroughgoing economic ignoramus could seriously make these statements.
In the 1890s Boehm Bawerk thoroughly explored the phenomenon of discounting and analysed its economic consequences. (See volume II in Capital and Interest). He demonstrated that time preference - the preference for present consumption over future consumption - explained the existence of interest. The higher the rate of time preference, the preference for greater consumption today over even more consumption in the future. Discounting brings us back to capital. As I pointed out in the beginning of the article, capital is a heterogeneous structure formed from savings. What determines the quantity of savings and hence the length of the structure is time preference: the lower the rate of time preference, the greater quantity of savings and the lower the rate of interest, which is also the key to the structure.
It should now be clear, even to Hamilton, that capital is the means by which we not only provide for ourselves but for future generations. Furthermore, as the structure continues to expand it also embodies new technologies which not only help to conserve existing resources but also creates new ones. This provides us with the additional insight that growth is a resource generating process. It follows from this definition of capital that any policy that distorts it or forces it to contract will lower living standards.
Now the price of any resource is the discounted value of the sum of its anticipated earnings (rents). This process is called capitalisation. It is obviously in the interest of entrepreneurs to maximise the present value of their land and capital assets. (Actually, it is their internal rate of return that they try to maximise). This is why they will avoid excessive use of their resources; such use would reduce their market value. Therefore Hamilton's criticism that the market cannot "maintain sustainability across generations" has no foundation in theory or history. Nevertheless, a number of corporations have swallowed the "sustainability" myth.
Demonstrating his remarkable powers of deduction MacLeay referred to a hepatitis outbreak caused by raw sewerage. Apparently, the failure of a state run sewage works to successfully dispose of waste matter confirmed - at least to MacLeay - the wisdom of the greens' anti-growth case.
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Many people would like to be kind to others so Leftists exploit that with their nonsense about equality. Most people want a clean, green environment so Greenies exploit that by inventing all sorts of far-fetched threats to the environment. But for both, the real motive is generally to promote themselves as wiser and better than everyone else, truth regardless.
Global warming has taken the place of Communism as an absurdity that "liberals" will defend to the death regardless of the evidence showing its folly. Evidence never has mattered to real Leftists
For more postings from me, see TONGUE-TIED, EDUCATION WATCH, POLITICAL CORRECTNESS WATCH, FOOD & HEALTH SKEPTIC, GUN WATCH, SOCIALIZED MEDICINE, AUSTRALIAN POLITICS, DISSECTING LEFTISM, IMMIGRATION WATCH and EYE ON BRITAIN. My Home Pages are here or here or here. Email me (John Ray) here. For times when blogger.com is playing up, there are mirrors of this site here and here.
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Jim Hansen and his twin
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