Sunday, November 10, 2019

Does one ten thousandth of the atmosphere control Earth’s thermostat?

There exists a belief that we are living in a world threatened by an important molecule that makes life possible on this planet⏤carbon dioxide.

To save the earth many believe we must transform society by shutting down the use of oil and natural gas which has improved life of modern society.

The arguments in support of this belief are the math equations or climate models claimed to simulate how nature does control the Earth’s.

In consultation with Astrophysicist Willie Soon and Tom Wysmuller, formerly of NASA, I chose the to consider following twelve variables which common sense says, must be considered when attempting to predict future temperatures and climate impacts on our planet. It turns out that all of these variables are not well understood, so if they appear at all, are just guesses. They include:

1- changes in seasonal solar irradiation

2- energy flows between the ocean and atmosphere

3- energy flows between the air and land

4- the balance between the Earth’s water, water vapor, and ice

5- the impact of clouds

6- understanding the planet’s ice

7- mass change among ice sheets, sea level, and glaciers

8- the ability to factor in hurricanes and tornadoes

9- the impact of vegetation on temperature

10- tectonic movement on the ocean floor

11- the differential rotation between the earth’s surface and the planet’s core

12- the solar system’s magnetic field and gravitational interaction

All of these factors that impact our climate are not well understood, requiring us to make educated guesses at how they relate to each other and our climate. More specifically, as to how they impact the Earth’s temperature.

Governments have poured billions of dollars into the coffers of academic institutions churning out predictions from useless equations. More than 100 climate models are financed by the United States government, none of which agree with each other. None have accurately predicted anything as to our climate over the past 30 years.

It is no surprise that Willie Soon calculated a few years ago that if we actually knew all the variables involved in a reasonable mathematical climate model it would take a supercomputer 40 years to reach an answer to a question we posed.

In an appeal to our readers’ common sense we have constructed two accurate 10,000 dot charts. The first one below shows how much man-produced carbon dioxide exists in the atmosphere as a greenhouse gas relative to all such greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. The second chart shows how much carbon dioxide exists in our atmosphere relative to all other gases in our atmosphere.Does one ten thousandth of the atmosphere control Earth's thermostat?

On the first chart you can see that while Carbon dioxide makes up 3.6% of all greenhouse gas, man’s contribution of CO2 from factories power plants and automobiles is only 0.12% of all greenhouse gas. On the second chart you can see that total carbon dioxide in the atmosphere makes up four ten thousands (.0004) of all atmospheric gases, but man’s contribution is only one ten thousandths (.0001).

We all know there is a cottage industry of folks building climate models which appear to be scaring the public to enlarge government to  save them from seeing their planet destroyed. There are however many sound scientists that recognize the absurd exaggeration of the impacts of carbon dioxide emissions on our planet. But they also work with mathematical models to show how tiny is the impact of carbon dioxide on our Earth. They are often called Luke-warmers. The problem is that by their professing carbon dioxide’s impact as being small they are giving the proverbial “inch” which allows the alarmists to take a “mile”.

It is time that we all stop fighting alarmist numbers with our small numbers. The only number that matters is ZERO. That is, in fact, the real impact of carbon dioxide on the Earth’s thermostat and sea level rise. We are not in a battle over numbers. We are in a battle to protect our way of life.

If we lose to the so-called Progressives, who should really be called Regressives, they will take us back to life as it was in the 19th century, but much worse, as they will have installed a government capable of controlling every aspect of our lives.

On the first chart you can see that while Carbon dioxide makes up 3.6% of all greenhouse gas, man’s contribution of CO2 from factories power plants and automobiles is only 0.12% of all greenhouse gas. On the second chart you can see that total carbon dioxide in the atmosphere makes up four ten thousands (.0004) of all atmospheric gases, but man’s contribution is only one ten thousandths (.0001).


Sale of indulgences dominates Madrid climate summit

In Madrid the negotiators will be trying hard to finalize the Paris Accord emission trading scheme. The non-binding Paris Accord targets may have big bucks value for some developing countries and this has led to a paralyzing controversy.

Emission trading means any country that does better than their target can sell the difference as indulgences, called carbon credits.

This is potentially a huge market. The airlines are already promising to offset their enormous, jet propelled emissions, and most developed countries are not on track to hit their targets, so there are a lot of potential buyers.

Countries like China and India have a lot to sell, despite their coal mania, because their targets are based on emissions per GDP, not emissions per se. Industrialization increases emissions but it increases productivity even more, a lot more. Booming Brazil also has a pot full of indulgences to sell, as may others.

This big pile of old credits is the primary sticking point. The new trading scheme, called the Sustainable Development Mechanism (SDM), replaces the old Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) under the Kyoto Protocol, which expires next year. China and India have banked huge amounts of CDM carbon credits, thanks to their rapid industrialization. So much that some fear there is danger of a glut making credits worthless. China and the other big holders of CDM credits do not see it that way.

There is also the feeling that the old CDM credits are mostly bogus. A 2016 EU-commissioned report found that just 2% of CDM projects were likely to ensure additional emissions reductions. Claiming emission reductions for projects that were going ahead anyway is cheating in many people’s eyes.

There is also the issue called “double counting.” This is when Country A sells credits to Country B, but does not subtract the credit from its reduction claim. In effect both A and B are then counting the reduction the credit is supposedly based on. (Socialism is the land of complex rules.) Preventing this sort of double counting would require that every country open their emission books to outside scrutiny, which China especially does not want.

For these reasons, among others, there is a widespread movement to not allow CDM credits to be brought forward into the SDM pot. China, India et al disagree strongly. They want to cash in on those old credits. With possibly billions of dollars at stake, this is by far the biggest issue on the Madrid summit table. After all, this whole show is about money, not climate.

Another SDM issue that is active in the halls but not yet on the table is social justice. The argument is that a lot of CDM projects were socially bad, for example harming local communities. So there is a group of mostly small countries, led by Switzerland, who want the SDM to include social justice safeguards, like local approval. The big dogs do not want this.

Another interesting aspect is that the value of credits to sell is an incentive for developing countries to set weak targets that are easy to beat. In short there appear to be lots of ways to game the SDM system.

This debate may not end in Madrid. It failed to end at the last summit, in Poland. It was the topic of a special session last month, in Costa Rico, that also made no progress. Some people even argue that without the SDM the Paris Accord system fails.

CFACT will be covering this flaming hot issue in Madrid.


NPR Invents Fake Italy Wine Crisis

There they go again. National Public Radio published an article on its website claiming global warming is wreaking havoc on Italian wine production and forcing producers to seek new ways to protect their grapes. Yet the objective data show wine production in Italy, the rest of Europe, and the rest of the world are all doing quite fine.

As CFACT documented last month, global wine production set a new record last year. Italy was no exception, as Italian wine production also set a new record in 2018. Italian wine production is down some in 2019, but wine analysts attribute the 2019 decline to wine producers deliberately growing fewer grapes this year because they had so much holdover wine from 2018. To the extent weather impacted the wine grapes that were grown, unusually late spring COLD weather and frosts diminished output. Of course, as we are all lectured, global warming causes an earlier end to winter and an earlier start to spring. Without our recent modest global warming, this year’s cold spring would have been worse, this year’s late frosts would have been worse, and this year’s grape harvest would have been worse.

Leave it to NPR, however, to spin the record 2018 wine production, the excess wine held over into 2019, and the cold spring weather on global warming. NPR described the cold spring and late frosts as “weather extremes due to climate change.” Well, I guess “weather extremes” is one way to describe a cold spring and late frosts. Blaming those on global warming, however, is simply preposterous.

Regardless of what NPR would have people believe, wine production in Italy and throughout the globe is doing just fine as our planet modestly warms. So raise a glass and toast global warming!


Little Sister Is Watching: Scowling Greta Coming to a Kitchen Near You

A trend in Tel Aviv workplace cafeterias - photos of a judgemental Greta Thunberg next to disposable utensils

Imagine you've strolled into your office break room to enjoy some lunch, you open a cabinet to grab a paper napkin, reach in, and -- egads! -- see the visage of that 16-year-old emotionally troubled climate crusader, Greta Thunberg, scowling at you from behind the plastic spoons.

Is this a prank? Some weird new diet plan? Did Greta get lost on her latest fake-carbon-neutral adventure and wind up somehow in your work fridge?

None of the above. "Greta Shaming" is the latest lame stunt from the planet-saving crowd, intended to make you think twice before... I dunno... having the desire to go on living.

Actually, it's to make people reconsider using disposable utensils and the like, and it's apparently a very big deal in Israel where the whole Greta Shaming thing is taking off.

Israelis are Greta shaming each other over plastic

Photos of the teen Swedish climate activist being placed in work places to discourage using disposable plasticware

Allison Kaplan Sommer reports for Haaretz that "employees have been placing photos of a judgmental-looking Thunberg on top of their office’s supply of disposable cups, plastic plates and utensils." This is kind of a big deal in Israel, where there's a high proportion of workers trying to keep kosher -- and that means using disposable utensils in non-kosher kitchens. As Kaplan writes, "many more workplaces, including the Israeli army, have been more resistant to getting rid of paper and plastic" for exactly that reason.

So what's a Gaia-worshipping buttinsky to do? Why, the same thing they do at various UN conferences, for major media outlets, and on fake eco-tours: Turn for help to that GenZ superhero, Scowling Greta.

There is a more serious angle to this story though. Following WWII and the Holocaust, Israel was founded -- and backed up by a sierra-hotel defense force -- as the one place in the world where Jews would always be free to practice Judaism. Flash forward to today, and you have simple soldiers and office workers being shamed out of keeping kosher. I'm not religious, and I'd probably be terrible at it if I tried, but what gives Gaia-worshippers the right to harass people of other faiths in their own workplaces?

Oh, right... progressives always know best, and enjoy nothing but impunity for their annoying little stratagems. And here's an easy prediction: Now that Greta Shaming has made the papers, it won't be long before it goes global.

I was going to take a lunch break after filing this piece, but I seem to have lost my appetite. But then, ruining nice things for everyone else is what postmodern environmentalism is all about.


Time frame set for ban of exported recyclable waste from Australia

Recycling is costly and is about to become more so.  For a time a useful cost minimization strategy was to pay poor Asians to recycle the stuff. But they have recently become embarrassed by that role so are now refusing to take the waste

The bulk of recyclable waste is sent from Australia to other countries for processing at a huge cost, but not for much longer.

Australia will ban the export of recyclable waste from its shores, with a phase-out of the expensive and controversial practice beginning in July next year.

A meeting of federal, state and territory environment ministers today has devised a timeline to cease sending plastic, paper, glass and tyres internationally.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison flagged the ban after the last Council of Australian Governments (COAG) meeting in August, and today’s agreement has set in stone a staggered process to allow jurisdictions time to adjust.

“Ministers will further test the timetable with industry and local government, while also developing response strategies and undertaking independent market analysis,” the agreement states.

At present, when households and businesses put rubbish into recycling bins, just 12 per cent of that material is processed in Australia.

The remainder has been shipped to other countries – until recently most of it has wound up in China and Indonesia – at a hefty cost.

Last year, China banned imports of Australian waste and Indonesia has sent back shipments that were contaminated with non-recyclable waste, including soiled nappies and food.

From July 2020, glass waste will be banned for export, followed by mixed waste plastics the following year and all while tyres in December 2021.

All remaining waste products, including mixed paper and cardboard, will be banned no later than June 30, 2022.

“This timetable reflects the unique challenges of each jurisdiction, and the preparedness of some jurisdictions to complete the phase-out ahead of schedule,” the agreement states.

“All jurisdictions acknowledged resourcing, from Commonwealth, states and territories, and ndustry will be required to effectively implement the ban.”

Today’s agreement also committed to an ambitious waste reduction target under a new National Waste Action plan.

It aims to make Australia a world leader in waste management and recycling and includes an 80 per cent recovery rate of material across all waste streams. “All ministers have committed to identifying any significant procurement opportunities over oming months such as major road projects that could use significant amounts of recycled material,” the agreement states.

“The Commonwealth agreed to take a leading role. This reflects a wider commitment from the Commonwealth and states to drive procurement strategies for recycled material.

“The Commonwealth Government will prioritise work with states and territories and relevant industry and standards bodies to develop engineering specifications and standards to support

the use of recycled materials in building, construction and infrastructure development, for use across all jurisdictions.”



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1 comment:

C. S. P. Schofield said...

"Scowling Greta Coming to a Kitchen Near You"

If she turns up in MY kitchen, I will turn her into a dart board.