Monday, December 24, 2018

Is skiing dead due to global warming?

What America-centred rubbish below!  America is not the globe.  Switzerland last year had record snowfall and 89 Swiss ski resorts are already open this year.  And in the winter just past Australian ski resorts got the best snow depths for 14 years.  There is NO global trend to less snow

Last winter’s low snow year and unseasonably warm temperatures across much of the American West meant a bad year for business for some ski resorts, and also left many of us wondering whether skiing would even be possible in the warmer world we’re getting as we continue to pump out greenhouse gases.

“Our recent modeling suggests that under a high emissions scenario, skiing could be very limited to non-existent in parts of the country by the end of this century, particularly in lower elevations — such as the northeast, Midwest and lower mountains around the West,” says Cameron Wobus, lead author on a 2017 study projecting climate change impacts on skiing across the U.S. “Things look better mid-century, so this dire future for skiing isn’t imminent — and things also look much better under a more aggressive greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, so this future also isn't inevitable.”

According to Wobus’ research, ski resorts in the Pacific Northwest have the most to fear, with predicted losses of 80 percent or more of the ski season. Ski resorts in the Northeast also won’t fare well as we warm. The relatively good news is that the ski resorts in the intermountain west should face “less severe losses” due to their higher elevations.


It Was 10 Years Ago Al Gore Predicted The North Polar ice Will Disappear In 5 years: Guess What?

Gore made the prediction to a German audience on December 13, 2008. Al warned them that “the entire North ‘polarized’ cap will disappear in 5 years.”

The Gateway Pundit reports:

This wasn’t the only time Al Gore made his ice-free prediction. Gore had been predicting dire scenario since 2007. That means that the North Pole should have melted completely five years ago today.

Former Vice President Al Gore references computer modeling to suggest that the north polar ice cap may lose virtually all of its ice within the next seven years. “Some of the models suggest that there is a 75 percent chance that the entire north polar ice cap, during some of the summer months, could be completely ice-free within the next five to seven years,” said Gore.

In January 2006, Al Gore pushed the theory that “within the next 10 years, the world will reach a point of no return” and “a true planetary emergency” due to global warming.

Of course, this turned out to be nothing more than a lunatic conspiracy.

At least 8 Dire Predictions from the movie never happened – not even close.


Unrealism on top of unrealism

Unrealism both about global warming and the prevalence of criticism of it.  Christiane Amanpour interviews a tired-looking Alan Rusbridger, former editor of The Guardian.  On video here:

Towards the end of the interview --- around the 16:45 mark -- they get to climate change.

AMANPOUR:  . . MSM is failing on Climate . .

RUSBRIDGER: Well it's obviously the biggest story of our times. This is an existential threat to our species. There's no story that's bigger than that. And, it's a rather urgent story. And yet you don't see it very often on the front pages or on the bulletins. And even even when you do see it often dripped with skepticism about the evidence. So that's the failure of journalism. And the reason why it's so dangerous you've sort of seen on the streets of Paris. Political leaders are going to have to do uncomfortable things, and if the population have not been in any way prepared for that story, or worse, has been told to disbelieve it, that's the kind of disaster for democracy and the species. And so, I think that journalism has to step to the plate and take this story more seriously.

He must not be reading, and reading about, the same major MSM media outlets that we're familiar with; Global warming is front page all the time, and any skepticism is simply not allowed. Need to tie them both to a chair in front of their desktop (film it) and ask them to show us where the MSM is 'dripping skepticism."  That would be a great clip to play .

Parachutes do NOT save the lives of people who jump from aeroplanes, claim sarcastic scientists in a study designed to reveal how flawed 'research' can be

Parachutes do not save the lives of people who jump from aeroplanes, or so a study suggests. In a trial of 23 volunteers, all participants somehow survived being hurtled out of a plane - even those without parachutes.

But the sarcastic scientists didn't mention until 16 paragraphs into the study how the volunteers jumped a mere 0.6m off a stationary aircraft.  The scientists argued their lighthearted trial highlights how misleading research can be.

Writing in the Christmas edition of the British Medical Journal, they added accurate interpretation requires a 'complete and critical appraisal of the study'.

The 'Look Before You Leap' study was carried out by scientists at Harvard and led by associate professor of medicine Dr Robert Wayne Yeh.

Although written in good fun, the scientists hope their findings will prompt people to read studies in full rather than taking a 'cursory reading of the abstract'. 

To carry out the study, the scientists approached adult passengers on a commercial plane mid-flight to ask if they would be willing to parachute in the future.

The researchers admitted they found it tricky trying to find people willing to hurtle thousands of feet through the air without a parachute.

In response, they allowed 11 of the volunteers - which they opened up to their friends and family - without protection to jump just 0.6m, which the researchers called a 'minor caveat' in their study design.

They wore an empty North Face or other branded rucksack, while the 12 other participants were given parachutes.

The jumps were carried out at either the Yankee Air Museum in Belleville in Michigan or Katama Airfield in Martha’s Vineyard, Massachusetts.

None of the study's participants - whether they wore a parachute or not - died or were injured within five minutes or 30 days of the jump.

'This largely resulted from our ability to only recruit participants jumping from stationary aircraft on the ground,' the scientists wrote.

The researchers revealed the parachute did not deploy for all 12 of the volunteers because of the 'short duration and altitude of falls'. 

They sarcastically described their study as groundbreaking'.

And they added it 'should give momentary pause to experts who advocate for routine use of parachutes for jumps from aircraft in recreational or military settings'.

They wrote in the BMJ that, should the results be reproduced in future trials, it could save the global economy billions of dollars spent annually on parachutes to 'prevent injuries related to gravitational challenge'.

When pointing out flaws in the research, the scientists accepted there 'could have been a lower risk of death or major trauma because they jumped from an average altitude of 0.6m on aircraft moving at an average of 0 km/h.

But they wrote: 'It will be up to the reader to determine the relevance of these findings in the real world.'

They later added the results 'might not be generalisable to the use of parachutes in aircraft traveling at a higher altitude or velocity'. 

The researchers also wrote: 'The PARACHUTE trial satirically highlights some of the limitations of randomized controlled trials.

'Nevertheless, we believe that such trials remain the gold standard for the evaluation of most new treatments.

'The PARACHUTE trial does suggest, however, that their accurate interpretation requires more than a cursory reading of the abstract.'


Coal is Australia’s most valuable export in 2018

Coal will replace iron ore as Australia’s most valuable export this financial year as supply concerns lead to a steep price rise for the core commodity.

The Department of Industry, Innovation and Science’s latest Resources and Energy Quarterly report said thermal and coking coal export values would reach $67 billion in total in 2018-19, slightly higher than iron ore's $61 billion in value.

Coal leapt over iron ore as supply concerns ratcheted up the price. It is the first time coal has overtaken iron ore in value since the mining boom five years ago.

Australia is also expected to overtake Qatar as the world’s largest LNG exporter in 2019, buoyed by increasing export values, which grew from $31 billion in 2017-18 to $50 billion this financial year.

The Department was more optimistic in its forecasts than its reports released earlier this year, broadly lifting earnings expectations across most commodities for 2018-19.

It increased total export earnings by about $12.1 billion compared to the previous quarter’s forecasts and tipped earnings to reach a record high of more than $264 billion in 2018-19.

“The weaker Australian dollar, high coal prices and rapid growth in LNG exports are driving the strong figures,” it said. The weak exchange rate added about $7.4 billion to export values, “while higher-than-expected coking coal and iron ore prices account for the rest of the gain", the report said.

Coal's rise comes despite growing public opinion against the mineral, particularly for thermal coal which is used in power generation. There has been less opposition to coking coal as it is used to make steel.

Indian miner Adani has faced a massive backlash from the public and the Queensland state government as it attempts to develop the Carmichael thermal coal mega-mine in Queensland, while many Australian banks are now refusing to provide loans to develop new thermal coal mines in Australia.

Despite achieving a record year, lower demand from China would see earnings fall in 2019-2020 to $241 billion, although this would still be the second highest year on record.

Chief economist Mark Cully warned the ongoing trade war ignited by US President Donald Trump against China posed a threat to export growth. “The world is nine years into the post-GFC recovery, and the peak of the current cycle has clearly passed,” Mr Cully said. “Trade tensions between the US and China are magnifying economic risks. “The key risk to the commodity outlook thus lies in the ‘double whammy’: the potential dual impact of growing trade tensions and a slowdown in economic activity.”

Mr Cully said the rate of decline depends if China could maintain a steady rate of growth.

Coal and iron ore’s growth is forecast to come to an end in 2019-20, although LNG will remain relatively flat.

Coking coal values will drop about $10 billion, falling from a record high of $41 billion this year down to $30 billion next year. Supply disruptions had pushed the price up to $US220 a tonne in the last quarter of the year, well above the 2018 average price of $US207 a tonne. This average price is forecast to fall sharply next year to $US145 a tonne.

Thermal coal will see a less dramatic fall, slipping about $5 billion from $26 billion down to $20 billion in value. Declining Chinese demand will see the price fall from around $US105 a tonne in 2018 down to $US74 a tonne in 2019.

Iron ore prices are expected to slide from $US57 a tonne this year down to $US53 next year before stabilising at about $US51 a tonne in 2020. This is due to declining Chinese demand coupled with an oversupplied market. This will drive down export earnings from $61 billion this year down to $57 billion next year.

LNG will stay flat, dropping from $50 billion down to $49 billion in value. The decline will be driven by falling prices, despite export levels rising from 62 million tonnes in 2017-18 to 78 million tonnes in 2019-20.



For more postings from me, see  DISSECTING LEFTISM, TONGUE-TIED, EDUCATION WATCH INTERNATIONAL, POLITICAL CORRECTNESS WATCH, FOOD & HEALTH SKEPTIC and AUSTRALIAN POLITICS. Home Pages are   here or   here or   here.  Email me (John Ray) here.  

Preserving the graphics:  Most graphics on this site are hotlinked from elsewhere.  But hotlinked graphics sometimes have only a short life -- as little as a week in some cases.  After that they no longer come up.  From January 2011 on, therefore, I have posted a monthly copy of everything on this blog to a separate site where I can host text and graphics together -- which should make the graphics available even if they are no longer coming up on this site.  See  here or here


No comments: