Some forecasters get it right

Meteorologists who build global warming into their forecasts routinely get it wrong. Any unusual weather event will nonetheless be attributed by them to global warming after the event. Joe Bastardi gets his forecasts right WITHOUT reference to global warming.  Some details below

   
Well, this headline from The Daily Caller is interesting: “Democrats Will Hold A Series Of Hearings On Global Warming Once They Take Power.”

I volunteer to come in and explain to them how, using nature, we predicted several major events that ended up being blamed on climate change. As a patriotic American, I consider it an honor to have a chance to explain this to people who may not readily know about the forecasting aspect of the climate situation in real terms, where lives and property are involved.

1.) First up is the wildfire season prediction, made on May 17:

Before the Fact: Why Another Big Wildfire Season May Be on the Way

2.) Our forecast for a hot summer was made two days later:

More Reason for a Climate Ambulance Chaser Watch: Summer

3.) On July 13, I wrote about our concern about the East Coast being struck by a hurricane:

The Past Is a Reason to Worry About High-Impact East Coast Hurricanes

4.) I explained the natural aspect of wildfires and provided hints about them in August:

A Word About Wildfires

There are many reasons for why wildfires occur, but the point is that “climate change” is at best tiny among them and represents a gross oversimplification of the matter.

5.) On Oct. 8, I showed “the why before the what” with Hurricane Michael and also linked the major hurricane phenomena in October to the onslaught of an early cold and stormy winter, which you are seeing evolve in front of your very eyes.

Climate Ambulance Chaser Warning for Well-Telegraphed, Natural Pattern

All these articles appeared not only on our website but were issued publicly on The Patriot Post.

So if the duly elected party wants to have these hearings in the middle of a cold, stormy winter, it should keep in mind that this was our initial winter forecast, which came out on Aug. 7!

The forecast was updated in October, but as you can see, it’s still very cold for much of the country.

This would put significant pressure on energy prices, and this realization is beginning to take hold. In addition, other companies and industries, from retail to big box stores to salt producers — in fact, anything you can think of — are affected.

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Jay Lehr - the slide show I showed Trump







Contrary to Predictions, U.S. Nears Energy Independence   

Prognosticators have long warned that the world is on the verge of oil depletion — i.e., we’ve reached “peak oil” — while at the same time Democrats have torpedoed the idea of U.S. energy independence. Fortunately, oil forecasts have been just as unimpressively inaccurate as climate change predictions. Energy innovation has stimulated this effect while also bringing America to the brink of genuine energy independence.

According to Investor’s Business Daily, “The International Energy Agency forecasts that the U.S. will account for 75% of the growth in global oil production through 2025.” This growth is coming on the heels of already impressive gains. “Crude oil production in the U.S. has climbed more than 67% in just the past six years,” Investor’s reports, adding that “the Department of Energy expects it will climb an additional 11% next year.” Keep in mind that U.S. oil production is already second to none. Our current daily yield of 11 million barrels is higher than both Saudi Arabia and Russia.

The chief catalyst? Fracking. Yet as Investor’s notes, “It was never supposed to happen.” Recall back in 2008 when Obama asserted, “If we opened up and drilled on every single square inch of our land and our shores, we would still find only 3% of the world’s oil reserves — 3% for a country that uses 25% of the world’s oil.” This claim — which was regurgitated in slightly different forms all through Obama’s tenure — was obviously fabricated. Investor’s says that true U.S. oil reserves are sixtyfold higher than Obama’s estimate.

“Not all of that was recoverable at current prices,” Investor’s acknowledges. “But ‘recoverable’ is a highly flexible term. It’s based on oil prices and the cost of getting it out of the ground. The fracking revolution dramatically redefined the term recoverable because it made vast oil supplies accessible that once were once economically off-limits. So why would Obama mislead the country throughout his presidency? Because he was determined to force the country to dump billions of taxpayer subsidies on ‘renewable’ energy, and needed a reason to justify it.”

The issue here is not that renewable energy as a primary resource isn’t an admirable goal; it’s that Obama’s idea of how to properly nurture it was terribly misplaced. And his lying about the facts as a means to an end only added insult to injury. The solar company Solyndra alone squandered half a billion taxpayer dollars. Not only has oil always been far more abundant than naysayers claim, but taxpayers shouldn’t be forced to prop up whatever industry a president decides should be cultivated using powerful government levers.

Similar to how oil extraction evolved into fracking, the private sector will eventually find its game-changing renewable energy breakthrough. In the meantime, more oil production means more government revenue. Shouldn’t Democrats, who want to roll out a plethora of very expensive, government-paid-for initiatives, be for that?

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Climate Hoax: Not A Single G-20 Country Is Close To Hitting CO2 Emission Targets

A new report calls the lie on the grand Paris climate change treaty. None of the promised cuts in CO2 emissions that 200-plus countries made will come close to preventing a climate "catastrophe." And many of the industrialized nations aren't even living up to the promises they did make.

Two years ago, when the Paris agreement took effect, then-President Obama declared that "history may well judge it as a turning point for our planet."

It was a turning point in the level of empty rhetoric, perhaps. But it won't make a bit of difference to the planet.

This farce was made abundantly clear in an annual report by Climate Transparency, an international group focused on the G-20 nations.

Empty Promises

What did it find? "None of the G-20 (emissions targets) is in line with the Paris Agreement." The report shows an enormous gap between what the countries have pledged to do, and the far lower CO2 emissions levels that the U.N. says are needed to keep the planet from warming by 2 degrees Celsius.

In other words, even if every country lived up to their Paris pledges, it wouldn't come close to preventing "catastrophic warming."

It gets worse. As the report shows, most G-20 countries aren't on track to meet the modest greenhouse gas reductions they pledged to achieve by 2030.

As the Climate Transparency report notes, the EU "is not on track to meet its 2030 target." Nor is Mexico, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Japan or Turkey.

A number of G-20 countries actually saw their emissions increase in 2017, including Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Japan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Korea and Turkey.

Saudi Arabia's emissions will likely double by 2030, compared with 2014. Turkey continues to increase coal-power capacity even though it "runs strongly counter" to its pledges. Japan also has several coal plants in the pipeline. Brazil's deforestation rate has increased, despite its Paris promises to the contrary. Russia's "target is so weak that it would not require a decrease in (greenhouse gas) emissions from current levels."

And, to top it off, CO2 emission in China, already the world's largest emitter, will likely continue to increase until 2030, the report finds. It notes that coal consumption in China "increased again in 2017."

Faulty Doomsday Scenarios

Longtime IBD readers know that we are highly skeptical of all the climate change doomsday scenarios. They're all based on 100-year forecasts made by computer models that have trouble predicting what's already happened. And then there's the fact that climate scientists keep getting caught fudging numbers and making basic math errors. The latest involves a highly publicized study on ocean warming. These errors, by the way, always seem to go in one direction: toward making global warming look more ominous.

But even if the dire prediction environmentalist make is true, trying to cut CO2 emissions to prevent it is pointless. As we noted in this space recently, the U.N. says global CO2 emissions must be cut in half within 12 years, and reduced to zero in 32 years.

It should be abundantly clear now that not a single G-20 nation is taking the climate change issue seriously — no matter how much they preach about it, and no matter how many empty promises they make.

A Better Way to Deal with Climate Change

That's fine by us, since we think it's a waste of money. President Trump was right to pull the U.S. out of this farce rather than lend it any more undue credibility.

There is a better and far more sensible and frugal approach to deal with "climate change." Forget about wasting money in a futile attempt to quickly decarbonize every economy on the planet. Instead, deal with localized changes if they ever occur. Adaptation to hostile climates is something humanity has shown an amazing ability to achieve, even without modern technology.

The only drawback to this approach is that politicians won't be able to pat themselves on the back for "saving the planet."

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Anti-Carbon-Tax Revolt Threatens To Paralyse France

France is bracing for a nationwide revolt over the weekend as angry drivers plan to block roads nationwide in protest against the government’s carbon tax and rising fuel prices.

The French government approved a measure in late 2017 increasing a direct tax on diesel as well as a tax on carbon, allegedly to fight against climate change. The so-called Contribution Climat Énergie (CCE), a French version of the carbon tax, has steadily increased fuel prices in recent years. Drivers across the country have balked at the rising price of diesel as it disproportionately affects workers who depend on their vehicles to get to and from their jobs. Two-thirds of French people expect a “social explosion” in coming months.

In just a few weeks, the yellow hi-vis vest has become such a potent political symbol that one risks being mistaken for a supporter of the rebellious gilets jaunes when cycling in Paris.
The gilets jaunes are a grass-roots revolt against high fuel prices, and they threaten to paralyse France on Saturday.

The cause of the price hikes are “eco taxes” meant to dissuade the French from using cars. “We choose to tax pollution and harmful products rather than workers,” budget minister Gérald Darmanin explains. Yet the fuel taxes penalise the poor disproportionately.

In the hope of deflating the protests, prime minister Édouard Philippe on Wednesday announced €500 million of compensatory measures, including a €5,000 bonus for low-income earners who trade in polluting cars for a hybrid model.

The gilets jaunes have organised at least 630 protests nationwide via the blocage17novembre.com website, designed by an 18-year-old student. Some call for go-slows on highways. Others want to block roads, which is punishable by two years in prison and a €4,500 fine. Interior minister Christophe Castaner says no “total blockage” will be tolerated.

But several police unions have expressed sympathy, and promised not to punish petty or “middle-size” offences “out of solidarity with the citizens”.

Unlikely heroine

The movement has found an unlikely symbol in Jacline Mouraud, a 51-year-old accordion player, hypnotist and spiritual medium from Brittany who on October 18th posted a video message hectoring President Emmanuel Macron for “persecuting drivers”.

Mouraud’s video went viral, and has been viewed by more than six million people. “I have a thing or two to tell you,” she starts out. The stream of accusations includes the price of fuel, the “hunt” for diesel vehicles, the “forest” of radars, the number of traffic tickets, the possibility tolls may be charged to enter large towns and rumours of mandatory bicycle registration.

“What are you doing with the dough, apart from changing the china at the Élysée and building a swimming pool?” Mouraud asks Macron.

A senior adviser to Macron spoke scathingly of “this Madame Mouraud who generates spirits from under her fingernails”. He expressed consternation that a video “stuffed with lies” has reached such a wide audience, saying: “I have the feeling that our democracy is also at stake.”

Yet the Élysée “is absolutely not condescending towards this movement”, the adviser continued. “We don’t underestimate its amplitude. Our vigilance is total, even if the signals are blurred.”

The rise of the gilets jaunes coincides with Macron’s record low 26 per cent approval rating. A poll published by Ifop on November 14th indicates two-thirds of French people expect a “social explosion” in coming months.

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