Thursday, November 22, 2018

Melting Antarctic ice could slow global temperature rise, study says

Another evidence-free speculation.  In fact it's not only free of evidence, it is against the evidence.  As Zwally showed, the Antarctic is in fact GAINING mass overall

Cold meltwater running off Antarctica’s ice sheets and into the ocean could dampen the pace of global temperature rise, a new study suggests.

The research, published in Nature, finds that the rate of ice-sheet melt in a high-emissions scenario could see the oceans cooled by the influx of frigid water. This could knock as much as 0.4C off global temperature rise, the researchers say, potentially delaying exceeding the 1.5C and 2C Paris temperature limits by around a decade.

However, the study adds that the meltwater could have wider impacts on the Earth’s climate, increasing the formation of Antarctic sea ice, reducing rainfall in the southern hemisphere and increasing rainfall in the northern hemisphere. It could also cause warming of the ocean beneath the surface layer around the Antarctic coast, the researchers add, leading to further ice-sheet melt and additional sea level rise.

Scientists not involved in the research tell Carbon Brief that while the results are intriguing, some caution is warranted given that the study relies on a single climate model. It also uses a speculative ice-melt scenario and focuses on a region – the Southern Ocean and Antarctica – which climate models can struggle to simulate accurately.

Additional work, including running similar simulations using other climate models and including the impact of meltwater from Greenland, may provide a more complete picture of the climate impacts of melting ice sheets, the scientists note.


Symptoms Of Global Warming And Global Cooling Are Identical

Tony Heller:  In this video I show how climate scientists have continuously changed their story over the past 40 years.  The same things they used to blame on global cooling and excess sea ice, now they blame on global warming and shrinking sea ice.

Atlantic Coast Pipeline construction provides good jobs

VIRGINIANS ARE experiencing the best economy they have seen in decades.

At just below 3 percent, Virginia has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the country. Jobs are growing in virtually every sector, with manufacturing, construction and mining especially strong.

A good job for a family provider is not about what political party controls what chamber. It’s not red or blue. It’s green.

It’s prosperity, and it’s non-partisan. It’s food on the table, new baseball shoes for your child, and a movie on the weekend. At the end of the day, it’s a better life.

The future looks bright, and it’s about to get even better. More jobs are on the way.

Virginia has given the final go-ahead to begin building the Atlantic Coast Pipeline. The pipeline will carry clean-burning natural gas from wellheads in West Virginia to customers in Virginia and North Carolina.

This is the abundant energy our families depend on to heat and light our homes. This is the affordable energy that gives our industries an advantage over the rest of the world and powers the American growth engine, which has been hitting on all cylinders.

In addition, the Atlantic Coast Pipeline — and other pipelines carrying natural gas throughout the country — fits perfectly into President Donald Trump’s "America First" energy dominance national security policy. In Massachusetts, for example, state and local government officials have blocked pipeline construction from reserves in Pennsylvania. As a result, natural gas had to be purchased from Russia and shipped across the ocean in foreign tankers to Boston to meet the eastern region’s energy needs last winter. How does that make any sense?

Trump has a four-pronged strategy to get our economy moving again: tax reform, trade reform, regulatory reform and energy reform. The ACP embodies how these four parts work together. Tax reform encouraged the pipeline builders to make the investment, regulatory reform cleared the pathway for obtaining well-scrutinized federal permits, and trade reform will boost exports of our energy resources.

As our energy exports expand, our record trade deficits across the globe will be reduced, keeping cash and jobs in America — instead of going to other countries. Permanent energy self-sufficiency — once a pipe dream for Americans who remember waiting for hours in gas lines in the 1970s — is now very close to reality.

Besides carrying natural gas, the pipeline will also provide life-changing jobs that will help propel families into the middle class. It will add incentives for manufacturing companies to move to Virginia in order to tap directly into the pipeline’s efficient and affordable energy. More manufacturing brings more good-paying jobs to Virginians.

Construction has been underway in West Virginia and North Carolina for months. In Virginia, the construction means thousands of middle-class jobs in rural communities across the commonwealth.

The skilled tradesmen of the Laborers International Union of North America are stepping forward to train Virginians for the better-paying jobs that are out there right now for the taking.

This labor organization represents some 40,000 skilled tradesmen and women, primarily in the construction industry. They are teaching Virginia residents the skills they need to build the pipeline. The training takes place in classrooms and on the job, combining theoretical book knowledge with practical, hands-on experience.

At the end of the on-the-job training, students will have acquired skills employers want and a good-paying job. They will be able to use these skills well after the Atlantic Coast Pipeline is built and running.

Thanks to the Atlantic Coast Pipeline and the Laborers International Union of North America, this generation of Virginians and the next will have in-demand skills, good jobs and a secure place in the middle class for themselves and their families in order to keep the American dream alive.

My father, a high school graduate, was a union worker and craftsman his whole life. He was proud of his job as a union craftsman.

Good jobs change lives. Let’s build this pipeline.


California failed to sufficiently manage its forests

At what should have been the close of an already devastating wildfire season, California residents brace themselves as three more large fires rage on. The 2017 season made history. Sadly, however, 2018 is on track to be California’s worst, with at least 23 fatalities at this writing and over 190,000 acres burned. This season has brought fires that burn hotter, move faster, and claim more lives and property than in past decades. Californians have been left to wonder, “Is this the new normal?”

As we choke on smoke and watch our beautiful state burn, we look for an answer. How can this level of destruction be prevented in the future? The governor and news media are quick to answer, citing a combination of climate change and weather as the culprit.

To be sure, California’s multiyear drought left the state dry and vulnerable, and Santa Ana winds coupled with low humidity created the perfect firestorm. Climate change, though, remains the go-to villain, with outgoing Gov. Jerry Brown (D) claiming that the Golden State will have to spend “probably hundreds of billions [of dollars]” to combat the “new abnormal” driven by global warming. Echoing Brown, Scott McClean, deputy chief of the California Department of Forest and Fire Protection (CAL Fire), claims that “the problem is changing climate leading to more severe and destructive fires.”

Apparently, then, the solution is to pour “hundreds of billions” of dollars into our state government. What specifically this money would fund is not clear, nor are the measures that should be taken to “fight” a changing climate. As a life-long California resident, I find little hope in this vague solution.

But one critically important, yet overlooked factor could inspire hope — forest management. As an avid hiker who’s trekked across my home state, I’ve experienced firsthand the irresponsible way in which our wooded areas are managed.

From the Ventana Wilderness in Big Sur to Warner Valley on Mt. Lassen, trails are overgrown and bordered by rotting trunks and dry limbs. When trees fall, instead of the dead wood being cleared, it’s left to decompose along paths and roadways. Underbrush is left untouched as well, with forest floors blanketed in dry kindling. This hands-off approach creates a literal tinderbox, leaving our forests incredibly vulnerable.

One practical solution, which would likely cost less than $100 billion, would be to clear the deadwood and dry brush. Additionally, greater firebreaks should be made along roads and highways, limiting a fire’s ability to spread. If these solutions sound simple, that’s because they are. Despite a stated policy of "chang[ing] the environment by removing or reducing the heat source," CAL Fire continues to allow our forests to develop dangerous amounts of dry material, that is, fuel.

If CAL Fire is ill prepared to follow its stated policy and adequately manage our forests, despite its $443 million budget, perhaps a more cost-effective solution should be implemented. One such solution would be to incentivize private loggers to clear densely packed forests and remote highway shoulders.

As far as incentives go, a good place to start would be streamlining the Timber Harvesting Plan Review Process, which currently can take up to 60 days just to approve a permit.

The Golden State is clearly overwhelmed and now has a proven track record of failing to sufficiently manage her forests. Rather than accept this as the “new abnormal” or throw more money at a system that we know has failed, a commonsense, market approach is in order.


Australian exports to India will be driven by coal and competition

I think we may have reached peak "stop Adani". In The Australian Financial Review on Monday last week, Richard Denniss prosecuted the fantastic argument that we should not allow Adani to open because that would hurt coal production and jobs in NSW!

So the message to North Queensland is, 'sorry you can't have jobs because we have to protect another part of the country'. Townsville's unemployment rate for the past 12 months has averaged 9.1 per cent, so you can imagine how such a message would be received north of the Tropic of Capricorn. The unemployment rate around Newcastle has averaged 5.7 per cent over the same period.

But let's take Richard's argument to its logical conclusions. Why allow pesky competition at all when the entry of new businesses sometimes puts other businesses out of action? Why do we allow Bunnings to open when they have caused Mitre 10s to close? Why do we allow Netflix to stream when so many video stores have shut down? Think of all the heartache we could stop if we just stopped all this wasteful competition and let some kind of modern, technocratic Politburo sort it all out.

Richard's argument reveals the warped misunderstanding green activists have of the market. Their largely socialist outlook of the world blinds them to the well-demonstrated benefits of competition. We should not seek to protect some businesses in Australia by limiting the prospects of others. If the coal from North Queensland ends up out-competing NSW coal, we will have a stronger and more competitive industry as a whole. (This is extremely unlikely given NSW thermal coal is the best in the world.)

What Richard is really suggesting is we reintroduce a single desk for the export of coal. If the export of coal from Queensland can influence the global price, then the export of coal from NSW can do the same. On this reasoning we should have every coal miner seek permission from Canberra before a ship leaves the Newcastle port, so we can ensure the maximum price. That is something the coal industry is unlikely to welcome.

In fact, we have tried this before in many commodities and they have all ended in failure. We may think we can outsmart global markets, but practical experience has taught us that trying to micro-manage such outcomes from a room in Canberra is a recipe for disaster. Thankfully such proposals have largely been consigned to the dustbin, notwithstanding their bizarre reappearance as an argument prosecuted by the unholy alliance of incumbent coal miners and greenies.

Room for both

Most happily for us, we are unlikely to have to make this choice between Queensland and NSW because world coal markets are booming and there is ample room for both. Last year the production of coal-fired power globally reached a new record at 9723 terawatt hours.

It is this increased demand that has pushed coal prices to near record highs, and increased the margin for high-quality Australian coal over Indonesian coal by six times. Coal has once again become Australia's biggest export and this wealth is helping pay for important public services by bringing state and federal budgets to balance sooner.

Last week the International Energy Agency forecast that coal demand is set to grow by 492 million tonnes in the Asia Pacific region by 2040. Australia exports just under 400 million tonnes so this is a massive opportunity for us to create more wealth and more jobs right nationwide. The IEA conclude that new mines in Australia, such as Adani's, would be required to meet this increased demand.

The biggest opportunity lies in India. With coal demand there set to grow by over 600 million tonnes by 2040. Last year, India imported 160 million tonnes of thermal coal but Australia accounted for just 3 million tonnes of that. As the world's largest coal exporter that performance is not good enough.

This week The Australian Financial Review will host an important summit on Australian-Indian relations. The Adani project, as the largest potential Indian investment in Australia by far, offers the most direct way to cement a strong and ongoing relationship between our two countries.

We are sometimes too complacent about Australian-Indian relations. Sometimes we rest back on the "three C's" of "cricket, Commonwealth and curry". These won't be enough, to take our relationship to the next level we must add a fourth C of "commerce" and the quickest way to do that is to grow our trade in a fifth C of "coal".




Preserving the graphics:  Most graphics on this site are hotlinked from elsewhere.  But hotlinked graphics sometimes have only a short life -- as little as a week in some cases.  After that they no longer come up.  From January 2011 on, therefore, I have posted a monthly copy of everything on this blog to a separate site where I can host text and graphics together -- which should make the graphics available even if they are no longer coming up on this site.  See  here or here


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