Thursday, July 12, 2018

Sea Ice Model Projections In A Death Spiral! Arctic Ice Volume Holds Steady For A Decade!

Al Gore's fantasy of no Arctic ice by 2013 gets crushed by reality!

Arctic sea ice volume data show earlier projections of ice-free Arctic summers were a sham. Sea ice now steady 10 years.
Lately Arctic sea ice volume has been a topic which climate skeptics have been looking at quite closely.

According to Al Gore and a number of climate ambulance chasers, Arctic sea ice in late summer should have long disappeared by now, see here..

But then just a few years after, the Arctic sea ice area began to recover from its lows of 2007 and 2012. So immediately alarmists shouted that area was not really what mattered, but rather sea ice volume is what really counted. Okay, that made perfect sense. Mass is in fact what’s important, and not area, when worrying about polar ice disappearing.

So naturally skeptics have since then been watching volume, which we were told by alarmists would shrink, and shrink, and shrink – until totally gone in late summer. In 2007 one US climate official declared the Arctic sea ice was in a “death spiral”.

Those alarmist projections have since turned up totally false

First, looking at peak ice, which occurs around April 1st, using the data from the Danish meteorological Institute (DMI) here, we find that Arctic sea ice VOLUME has totally defied the downward death spiral trend projected by experts and their models.

The chart above depicts Arctic sea ice volume on April 1st for the years 2003 to 2018, using the data from the DMI. Note the growing chasm between alarmist projections and reality.

Humiliation of the alarmists

The most closely watched measure of Arctic sea ice magnitude is the minimum that is typically reached in very late summer, i.e. around September 20.

Here as well using the DMI data, I’ve plotted the September 20 Arctic sea ice going back to 2003.

Here’s the result of the plot:

Al Gore’s hysterical projections of ice-free Arctic late summers are exposed as an absolute sham. 2018 uses a conservative projected value.

Today the doomsday scenarios and projections made 10 years ago have yet to show any signs of materializing. Late summer Arctic sea ice has been surprisingly stable over the past decade.  Gore and alarmists fell into the trap of applying an idiotic polynomial curve extrapolation into the future.

In fact there are indications that Arctic sea ice may be starting an upward trend as oceanic and solar cycles enter their cooler phases.

Low sea ice also occurred in the past

There’s no doubt that Arctic sea ice has dwindled considerably since it peaked back at around 1980, a time when climate scientists had warned the globe risked cooling into an ice age.

Also, today’s Arctic sea ice amount is in the same neighborhood as it was back in the 1930s. Moreover, today’s levels are considerbly higher than they were over a large part of the Holocene, which saw periods that were far warmer than today.


Even As Energy Costs Soar, Gore Says Germany Must Embrace More Green Energy

International climate activist Al Gore says Germany must further push its domestic energy markets to embrace green energy or risk getting “left behind,” Politico reports.

Within the last decade, Germany has pursued an aggressive strategy to transition its energy grid away from fossil fuels and toward renewable sources such as solar and wind.

German politicians have used subsidies to encourage new investment and regulations to cut down on emissions, Fortune Magazine reports.

“Germany was a model for the rest of the world and a narrative took hold here in Germany that might be summarized as ‘Germany leads and everyone follows,’” former Vice President Gore told Politico in an interview. “But that narrative is now out of date.”

The German people have funded the green revolution through taxes and a surcharge on energy bills that caused the average German’s energy costs to skyrocket more than 50 percent from 2006 to 2016.

“For us, it’s a very good business, but for the German people it’s very bad,” German farmer and entrepreneur Dieter Dürrmeier told Fortune for a March 2017 article.

Dürrmeier is enrolled in a government program that pays his family about $42,000 annually to produce solar energy from panels attached to the roof of his barns and house.

The aggressive national policy is pricing natural gas and nuclear energy plants out of markets. Plants are shuttering in towns where energy production is a major segment of the economy, Fortune reports.

German politicians are also phasing out nuclear energy because of fears of another Fukushima disaster. In 2011, a tsunami hit the Fukushima nuclear plant in Japan, causing a nuclear meltdown in three reactor cores.

Fears spread that nuclear fallout and radiation could kill thousands, though no cases of sickness or death related to radiation have been recorded.

Pushing out carbon-neutral nuclear plants have put more reliance on German coal plants to burn increasing amounts of cheap lignite coal, which is plentiful in Germany. Germany produced 40 percent of its energy from coal in 2016, Fortune reports.

“Germany is in danger of being left behind as more aggressive EU governments seize the lead,” Gore told Politico. “The competitive advantages and job creation advantages of the sustainability revolution put Germany at risk of being left behind. Of course, the subsidies for coal in Germany are enormous.”


The Death Of Climate Change

These 8 words are the death of climate change: It violates the Equivalence Principle, therefore it’s wrong.

At its very core, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) violated a key principle of physics. Therefore, all IPCC climate claims and models are wrong.

IPCC’s Big Idea (its fundamental hypothesis) is that nature treats human CO2 emissions differently than it treats nature’s CO2 emissions.

That Big Idea is impossible because it violates the Equivalence Principle of physics. The Equivalence Principle says if data cannot distinguish between two things, then the two things are identical.

Einstein used the Equivalence Principle to develop his General Theory of Relativity. He realized that data cannot tell the difference between gravity and inertial forces. Therefore, they are the same thing. This equivalence is the foundation of Einstein’s General Theory of Relativity that we use today.

Nature cannot treat human and natural CO2 differently because nature cannot tell the difference between CO2 molecules from the two sources.

The IPCC claims human CO2 emissions will linger in the atmosphere for hundreds of years and 15 percent of it will remain forever. That claim is a result of IPCC’s Big Idea and it violates the Equivalence Principle. Nature’s CO2 has a half-life in the atmosphere of only 2.8 years. Human CO2 also has a half-life of 2.8 years.

With this simple elimination of IPCC’s Big Idea, the truth becomes clear. Human CO2 emissions are not a threat to the planet. Human emissions hardly make a dent in the level of CO2 in our atmosphere. The whole climate charade is based upon an error in physics.

The IPCC claims human emissions have caused all the rise in the level of CO2 in the atmosphere since 1750. The IPCC uses a six-step core argument to support this claim, but its core argument violates the Equivalence Principle and simple logic. The truth is nature has caused most of the increase in CO2 since 1750.

Nature’s CO2 emissions are 21 times greater than human CO2 emissions. Simple physics, and even common sense, shows nature’s CO2 emissions add 21 times more CO2 to the atmosphere than do human CO2 emissions. Thus, human emissions add only 18 ppm to today’s 410 ppm level of CO2 and nature adds the remaining 392 ppm.

Even if we were to stop all human CO2 emissions and nature remained constant, the level of CO2 in our atmosphere would fall by only 18 ppm. Nature’s level of 392 ppm would remain.

Continuation of present human and natural emissions does not further increase the CO2 in the atmosphere. Continued emissions maintain rather than add to the level of CO2 in the atmosphere.

The same physics applies to a lake with inflow from a river and outflow over a dam. If inflow remains constant, the lake level will remain constant. The height of the water level above the dam will be just enough to make outflow equal to inflow.

Al Gore and the IPCC received a Nobel Peace Prize by violating the Equivalence Principle. It is time to teach people, university students, national park visitors, and voters the truth.

Human emissions do not change climate, and the futile attempt to reduce human emissions will not change climate.


Citing Environmental Risk, Terror Group Al-Shabaab Bans Plastic Bags

Is this a spoof?

The terror group Al-Shabaab has banned single-use plastic bags in areas of Somalia under its control, arguing that the waste is bad for the environment.

Al-Shabaab's Radio Andalus reported that the terror group's governor in the Jubaland region, Mohammed Abu Abdullah, said discarded plastic bags "pose a serious threat to the well-being of humans and animals alike." How the ban would be implemented was not detailed.

The group also banned, effective immediately, the logging of indigenous trees.

Ironically, as the al-Qaeda allies pretend to care about the environment, they've been long funding their nefarious activities through the illegal ivory trade.

Al-Qaeda and its allies have previously promoted environmental policy. In November 2016, a special issue of Inspire, published by al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula's Al-Malahem Media, slammed the Obama administration for being all talk and no action on climate change and protecting the environment.

"The environment has suffered from America’s policies. In latest official statistics of International [sic] Health Organization, it mentions that 92% of the world population are breathing polluted air. Moreover, 6.5 million people are dying annually because of air pollution," the magazine said. "One of the main cause of pollution results from American factories, which produce 36.1% of greenhouse gases. Despite that, up to this day America hasn’t taken any tangible steps to reduce these harmful gases."

"In addition to this America opposed some laws that were imposed so as to reduce the use of materials that produce greenhouse gases. It is astonishing and deceptive to hear Obama talk about the necessity of acting boldly in combating the danger of greenhouse gases, yet his own state has not responded and dealt adequately in reducing these deadly emissions."

In March, the Taliban's Department of Agriculture and Agronomics directed jihadists to start planting trees as soon as the weather allows in order to curry favor with the local populace.

The Taliban noted that a "key component of public welfare works for the prosperity of our people and homeland is agriculture and tree plantation, and cited last year's tree decree from Taliban leader Hibatullah Akhundzada that "was widely welcomed by the people and a multitude of trees were planted throughout the country."

In that message, Akhundzada called on jihadists and civilians in occupied areas to "plant one or several fruit or non-fruit trees for the beautification of Earth and the benefit of almighty Allah's creations."

The Taliban reminded everyone to comply with that decree and asked the "mujahideen to plant trees for the prosperity our homeland so that our nation and people can benefit from the abundant advantages of trees and greenery."


Taste of the future: Australia’s southern states at 50% renewables

How to lie with statistics again. Tasmania has had big hydro resources from a time before Greenies were even thought of. So including them inflates the renewable share.  South Australia also has a big windmill base -- but that is only good if you like all their blackouts -- of up to 2 weeks long

Here’s a taste of the future: Last week, over the three southern states of Tasmania, Victoria and South Australia, the share of renewable energy was above 50 per cent for most of the time.

Prices were low, observes Hugh Saddler, the leading energy analyst from The Australia Institute, who provided these graphs. And in South Australia, where there was a very high share of wind energy, only four gas units operated on days such as Thursday and Friday.

Note that wind, from Monday on, accounted for a minimum 60 per cent of supply, and on occasions more than 100 per cent. Gas went up and down as needed – but note how little was needed from Wednesday through Friday.

The balance was maintained by the inter-connector, with exports as the wind blew hardest, and some imports when it pulled back slightly and offered a cheaper option than gas.

And here’s what the prices showed us. By and large, prices stayed around $50/MWh and below, apart from the occasional spike. And there were some negative pricing events, not including the midday negative pricing that was recorded in Queensland as a result of its solar production late last month.

Sadly, such low prices don’t last. As we saw on Monday, when the wind and solar back off, and the fossil fuel generators can create an artificial network constraint, they then have the market power to bid prices to the market cap in order to extract maximum value from the market. 




Preserving the graphics:  Most graphics on this site are hotlinked from elsewhere.  But hotlinked graphics sometimes have only a short life -- as little as a week in some cases.  After that they no longer come up.  From January 2011 on, therefore, I have posted a monthly copy of everything on this blog to a separate site where I can host text and graphics together -- which should make the graphics available even if they are no longer coming up on this site.  See  here or here


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