Thursday, January 02, 2014

The expedition that DID prove something

They proved that the Antarctic today is COOLER than in Mawson's time a century ago

No matter whether you are a true believer in ‘climate change’ or an ardent sceptic, you’ll surely appreciate the delicious irony of the story which has been playing out in Antarctica.

A scientific research team who headed south to prove the threat to mankind from global warming by establishing that the region is melting have found themselves trapped on their ship in the unexpectedly thick pack ice.

As the days went by, though, it slowly became clear that this wasn’t going to be a temporary problem. The ship was stuck fast — at the height of what is supposed to be the Antarctic summer and when the ice normally melts rather than thickens — and was in urgent need of rescue.

Perhaps, with hindsight, it was a mistake to christen the expedition the Spirit of Mawson in memory of Sir Douglas Mawson, the great Edwardian-age Australian explorer in whose icy footsteps the mission hoped to follow.

Still, in at least one respect, Mawson had an advantage over his 21st century followers. As we can see from period photographs, this part of the Antarctic was noticeably less frozen in the early 20th century than it is today. There was no visible sea ice in Commonwealth Bay where the MV Akademik Shokalskiy and its crew first got stuck.

Unfortunately for those scientists and activists who have gained so much attention from pushing the global warming agenda — while they ultimately may be proved right — the real world evidence does not currently appear to be on their side.

As the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report admitted for the first time, there has been no significant rise in global temperature since 1997. This 16-year ‘pause’ was not predicted by any of the computer models on which the IPCC has long based its warnings of extreme global warming.

But will any of these inconvenient truths get a mention in the breathless accounts describing the Spirit of Mawson expedition’s last moments as the 85-strong company are finally rescued by helicopter?

That’s about as likely as a snowball’s chance in hell.


‘FrackNation’ Documentary Exposes Shoddy, Anti-science Journalism

Explosions and fires are a common feature of today’s fictional movies as heroes dodge bullets and conflagrations in pursuit of justice. That might explain why opponents of hydraulic fracturing (or fracking) have decided to dramatize their case against scientific progress by lighting water on fire and then falsely blaming fracking for the blaze.

Thanks to a new film called FrackNation (watch it tonight at 9 pm ET on the AXS cable channel), Americans who have been subjected to such shady journalism will finally get a chance to see the full picture.

fracknation-poster2.jpgIn the film, the husband-wife team of Phelim McAleer and Ann McElhinney closely examine the rhetoric and factual claims made by fracking opponents, particularly that of another filmmaker, Josh Fox, and his 2010 documentary Gasland.

During a press conference held in Chicago after a screening of Gasland, McAleer challenged Fox on the facts standing behind the flammable water he highlighted in his film, which focused on households in Colorado. McAleer called attention to a 1976 study by the Colorado Division of Water found the area in question already had gas in the water and that it was the result of natural forces. The report stated was “troublesome amounts of methane” in the water decades before fracking began.

“Don’t you owe a journalistic duty to show there was a problem with gas in the water before fracking started?” McAleer asked.

He added:

“Most people watching your film would think lighting your water started with fracking. You said yourself people lit their water long before fracking started, isn’t that correct?”

When pressed, Fox acknowledged this was true, but that it was also “irrelevant.”

The exchange between McAleer and Fox can be viewed here.

In an interview with conservative activists hosted by Americans for Tax Reform, McAleer and McElhinney told audience members that the film was made as a rejoinder to unsubstantiated alarmism about fracking and to provide “the other 99 percent” of Americans who have a more congenial view of natural gas development with a voice.

In many respects, “FrackNation” is crafted as a response to “shoddy journalism,” McAleer said. Since it is difficult to keep pace with all the new developments, it is best to review recent history and set the record straight, he explained.

“Fracking is a breaking news story,” he said. “New discoveries are coming all the time, and the environmentalists are coming up with new allegations.”

Another part of the film focuses on events in Dimock, Pa. where anti-fracking activists Craig and Julie Sautner had filed suit against Cabot Oil & Gas Corp. over alleged water contamination. The Pennsylvania Environmental Protection Agency ruled against the Saunters declaring that their water supply is safe and drinkable. They did not react well on film when presented with this news.

“This is a film about fracking, but it is also a film about journalism,” McElhinney observed. “Journalists should not take allegations in a lawsuit as fact, of course the plaintiffs are going to be biased in favor of their own suit.”

McAleer and McElhinney have previously collaborated together on “Mine Your Business” and “Not Evil, Just Wrong.” They have been persistent critics of the modern environmental movement and its impact upon average citizens.


Observations show IPCC exaggerates anthropogenic global warming by a factor of 7

A compilation of at least 13 studies based upon satellite and ocean observations demonstrate climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 levels after all feedbacks is only about 0.4 C, which is 7.5 times less than the 3C claimed by the IPCC.

Note: If the current rate of increase of 2 ppm/yr continues, CO2 concentrations would require about 200 years to double. These climate sensitivity estimates also assume the temperature increase was solely due to greenhouse gases and do not include natural influences from solar amplification, global brightening, ocean oscillations, etc. which can alone account for 95% of climate change over the past 400 years.

Lindzen & Choi [2011]: 0.7 C

Spencer & Braswell: 0.62 C

Bjornbom: 0.67 C

Eschenbach: 0.2 C

Levitus 2012 = 0.39 C

Douglass & Knox [2012]: 0.16 * 1.3 = 0.21 C

Lindzen & Giannitsis: 0.67 C

Douglass et al [2005]: .22 * 1.3 = 0.29 C

Bogdanov: .41*1.3 = 0.53 C

Chylek: .385*1.3 = 0.50 C

Monckton: .12 * 3.7 * 1.3 = 0.58 C

Paltridge: .1 - .3 (based on NCEP trends, figure 10) (ave .2)*1.3 = 0.26 C

Schwartz: 0.3 * 1.3 = 0.39 C

All very similar and averaging out to about 0.4 C climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 levels

Note: Equilibrium climate sensitivity [ECS] at the top of the atmosphere [TOA] has been determined from the above analyses assuming ECS is 130% of transient climate sensitivity [TCS] per Otto et al.


NASA Has Nearly Doubled Their Reported Global Warming Over The Last 13 Years

The graph below shows global land temperatures 2001 version (red) and 2013 version (blue) normalized to 1998. By massively cooling the past in their recent graphs, they report nearly double the amount of 1880-2000 global warming as they did 13 years ago.


Warmism – a very modern death cult for trendy lefties

The neo-fascist, quasi-religion of “Warmism”, followed by proponents of the ludicrous CAGW hypothesis, is quackery-meets-fundamentalism wrapped in post-normal demagoguery for those who despise God. Like most religions (and Warmism is just like most religions) all you need is belief and a good story, rooted in just enough historical fact-y-ness, to keep the gullible reading, believing and most importantly, paying.

If you believe hard enough, and have an unshakeable faith in the words of your priests, you too can justify ignoring the massive gaps of truth, logic, reason, fact and scientific proof, upon which the dogma is undeniably based if only to yourself and your fellow travellers.

This is Creationists v Evolutionists Pt 2; this time though, it is the “deniers” who must have 100% of their fossil record ready for inspection, all day, every day, while the warmists support their case with faith, smear, the bitterest of invectives and very little else.

The CAGW myth is the perfect quasi-religious death cult for collectivists of all flavours; from the casual left-ish folk on the Clapham omnibus who distrust “organised” religion and think nebulous concepts like social justice, equality and fairness might not be too bad, despite not being fully aware of what they actually mean in practice, right up the lefty food chain to the committed hard core, lunatic fringe fanatic who will gladly help set fire to the world as long as they get to rule the cinders once the flames subside.

It ticks every single box just as it covers all the bases.

As much as anything, the left seek out policies and positions that make them feel better about themselves and superior to those they despise (i.e. anyone who disagrees with them). The Warmist religion allows them to do just this. It allows them to indulge their Marxist/socialist redistributive tendencies to the full. The pipeline of cash from poor people in rich countries to rich people in poor countries, in the name of Warmism, is likely to only benefit arms dealers and German car makers but this fact barely raises a flicker of concern in the Warmist and why should it? How much better can you make yourself feel than when you’ve just convinced yourself you are saving the world? Questions, especially those that may spark doubt, are to be avoided at all costs.

Ask any semi-literate subsistence farmer, in the developing-world, why the crops failed, chances are you will be told it was God’s will, you will be told the same thing should the crop be bountiful, or if his goat gives birth to twins or dies of disease. This is the fundamental and unshakeable truth and no amount of argument or reason can lay a glove upon it. The parallels with the pronouncements of the CAGW fantasists are obvious and just as deluded; if it’s cold – that’s a sign of global warming, if it’s warm – that too is a sign of global warming, if it’s a long cold winter, that’s just weather but if it’s a long hot summer THAT is climate change. God’s will, GIGO-coded and fudge-factored, biddable and compliant, finally subservient to the socialist redistributionist New World Order and its Warmist acolytes.

In addition to feeling good about themselves, of equal importance of course, (especially to the committed leftist devotee of the Warmist religion), is the acquisition and ruthless exercise of power. To the adherents of this particular sect of the Warmist religion, ideology is as much a tactic as anything else. In precisely the same way as championing the rights of downtrodden workers, women and homosexuals are simply the means to a particular end (militant power through the Unions or the ballot box, through the support of special interest groups).

In the apocalyptic religion of Warmism, today’s particular cause (tactic), is nothing less than saving the entire world. Although the cause may have evolved from working practices and the closed shop, the villain, the embodiment of evil, the Warmist’s depiction of the Devil (every religion needs one by the way) betrays the cult’s Marxist/socialist/collectivist roots; the banker, the wealthy industrialist, the capitalist, the land owner, the church and the conservative remain constant as figures of hatred and envy, with the so-called “denier” replacing the heretic at the stake.


Bad news for Greenies:  Koalas spotted in new parts of Australia, including upper Blue Mountains

Greenies love to shriek "Endangered!" any time anybody proposes to do anything near a Koala.  This might spike their guns a little

Koalas have been found living in parts of Australia where they have never been seen before, researchers say.

A nationwide survey by the National Parks Association (NPA) found the animal living in the upper Blue Mountains of New South Wales, for the first time.

They have also been spotted in the NSW Southern Highlands, Port Stephens and Maitland, as well as known hot spots in the Northern Rivers and Gunnedah, also in NSW.

"I think the population is just so low that people weren't sure that they were even still there," said Dr Grainne Cleary of the NPA.

"They are just at such low density, unless you're going out looking for them you just don't see them.

"Some of it could have to do with the connectivity and that the koalas can move back into these areas that they weren't found in before."
What more should be done to bolster Australia's koala populations? Leave your comments below.

The NPA recruited the public to participate in the Great Koala Count by going in search of the animal and sending in their findings.

More than 850 people took part and logged about 920 koala sightings over the course of 10 days in November.

Dr Cleary says the results will help communities bolster conservation efforts.  "This data goes very much back to the community that collected it to help protect their koalas," she said.

"They're looking at planting trees in areas where koalas are to increase connectivity between populations - now I can give them a map of where their koalas are.  "We'll also give it to the councils to make sure they can include it in their koala comprehensive management plans."

The survey also shows koalas are picky about where they choose to live, opting for good quality land and soil.

"If the vegetation was right you will get high densities in certain areas, which was interesting," said Dr Cleary.

Known hot spots such as the Northern Rivers and Gunnedah featured strongly in the survey, as well as the Gold Coast and Brisbane, Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia.

The Great Koala Count will be held again next year.



For more postings from me, see  DISSECTING LEFTISM, TONGUE-TIED, EDUCATION WATCH INTERNATIONAL, POLITICAL CORRECTNESS WATCH, FOOD & HEALTH SKEPTIC and AUSTRALIAN POLITICS. Home Pages are   here or   here or   here.  Email me (John Ray) here.  

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