Friday, March 09, 2007

The Fraud of Global Warming: True C02 Record Buried

This article comes from a dubious source and I have not been able to find on the net the original research report referred to in the article -- even though I have found the home page of the alleged author. The question it raises about ACTUAL measurements of ambient CO2 as opposed to levels of CO2 inferred from ice cores is however an interesting one. I gather that CO2 levels in cores dating back more than 100 years are remarkably uniform. Given the known variation in CO2 levels, that strongly suggests a methodological artifact to me. It sounds as if an amount of CO2 "leaks" down to a certain level either before or after the core is drilled -- the residual level being determined by the strength of the forces that drive the leaks. Jaworowski is of course a strong proponent of that view and efforts have been made to allow for his criticisms in more recent drilling but it seems probable to me that there are dynamics in old ice cores that are not yet known or understood. Real-world checking does therefore assume considerable importance. I would be interested to see a copy of the alleged Beck report if anyone can locate it


A reader writes:

"The Beck paper has not yet been published. It is still undergoing peer review and is expected to be published, by E&E, later this year"

Update 2:

An email from Ernst Beck:

Next week my paper "180 Years of atmospheric CO2 Gas Analysis by Chemical methods" will be published in Energy& Environment (UK) which is 20 pages fraction of the 120 pages monograph I have written including all data, evaluations of locations and methods. Meanwhile I have almost finished translation to English. Do you publish monographs or do you know possibilities ?

Update 3

I have put up a preliminary draft of Prof. Beck's paper here

The historical record of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, claimed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as the justification for greenhouse gas reduction, is a fraud. Research by a Freiburg, Germany professor, Ernst-Georg Beck of the Merian-Schule, shows that the IPCC construed and concocted the pre-1957 CO2 record from measurements on recently drilled ice cores, ignoring more than 90,000 direct measurements by chemical methods from 1857 to 1957.

The IPCC's hoked-up record attempts to prove that CO2 concentrations have been steadily increasing with the progress of human industrial civilization. Beck's work confirms a wealth of previous investigations which demonstrate that the IPCC cherrypicked its data in an attempt to prove that we must stop industrial development and return to the horse-and-buggy age, or face oppressive heat and melting of the polar ice caps. It shows that the Kyoto Treaty on reduction of greenhouse gases was based on a scientific fraud which violates the laws of the universe, denying the well-established determination of climate by cyclical variations in the Earth-Sun orbital relationship and in the Sun's heat output.

In a thorough review of 175 scientific papers, Professor Beck found that the founders of modern greenhouse theory, Guy Stewart Callendar and Charles David Keeling (a special idol of Al Gore's), had completely ignored careful and systematic measurements by some of the most famous names of physical chemistry, among them several Nobel prize winners. Measurements by these chemists showed that today's atmospheric CO2 concentration of about 380 parts per million (ppm) have been exceeded in the past, including a period from 1936 to 1944, when the CO2 levels varied from 393.0 to 454.7 ppm.

There were also measurements, accurate to within 3%, of 375.00 ppm in 1885 (Hempel in Dresden), 390.0 in 1866 (Gorup, Erlangen), and 416.0 in 1857 and 1858 (von Gilm, Innsbruck). Ironically, although the 1940s increase correlated with a period of average atmospheric warming, Beck and others have shown that the warming preceded the increase in CO2 concentrations.

The data reviewed by Beck came mainly from the northern hemisphere, geographically spread from Alaska over Europe to Poona, India, nearly all taken from rural areas or the periphery of towns without contamination by industry, at a measuring height of approximately 2 meters above ground. Evaluation of chemical methods revealed a maximum error of 3% down to 1% in the best cases.

By contrast, the measurements hoked up from ice cores, show a rather steady increase in CO2 levels, conveniently corresponding to the preconceived idea that increasing industrial activity has produced a steady CO2 increase. As Beck's collaborator, Dr. Zbigniew Jaworoswki, former senior advisor to the Polish radiation monitoring service and a veteran mountaineer who has excavated ice from 17 glaciers on six continents, has shown, the gaseous inclusions in ice cores have no validity as historical proxies for atmospheric concentrations. The continual freezing, refreezing, and pressurization of ice columns drastically alters the original atmospheric concentrations of the gas bubbles.

According to the greenhouse warming theory, the increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration caused by human activity, such as burning of fossil fuels, acts like the glass in a greenhouse to prevent the re-radiation of solar heat from near the Earth's surface. Although such an effect exists, carbon dioxide is low on the list of greenhouse gases, accounting for at most 2 or 3 percent of the greenhouse effect. By far the most important greenhouse gas is water vapor. However, water in the form of clouds can reflect back solar radiation, causing temperature reduction. There are so many interrelated effects, that correlating global temperature to CO2 concentration is like attempting to predict the value of a hedge fund by the phases of the Moon.

To concoct a convincing case of such correlation requires ample, sophisticated lying, and the greenhouse theorists have been caught at it. By a delightful historical irony, it could be said that it is the founder of modern science, Cardinal Nicholas of Cusa (1401-1464), who has caught them. Our modern understanding of photosynthesis began when the Flemish researcher Jan Baptist van Helmont took up Cusa's challenge (stated in the "De Staticis" section of his Idiota de mente, the Layman: About Mind) to weigh a plant and its soil before and after growth. Van Helmont discovered (circa 1620) that the soil supporting a willow tree, which had grown to 169 pounds in five years, had changed weight by less than a few ounces. Whence did the solid mass of the tree derive? Ironically, Van Helmont, who had introduced the word "gas" to science, mistakenly concluded that the plant's mass had come solely from the water applied.

It took almost two more centuries to uncover the astounding fact that much of the mass of the plant, and all of its structural backbone, derives from the invisible and apparently weightless air, most especially the carbon dioxide component of it. That was the achievement of the revolution in chemistry launched by Lavoisier, and pushed forward by Gay-Lussac, Avogadro, Gerhardt, and others at the beginning of the 19th Century. The ability to place two invisible gases in a balance and compare their weights, proved to be the secret to the determination of atomic weights, and from that the unlocking of the secrets of both the atom and the cell.

Unfortunately for the liars at the IPCC, the measurement of atmospheric CO2 concentration had been a special focus of chemists since that early 19th Century elaboration of the process of photosynthesis, and their carefully recorded measurements remain with us. The inconvenient truth is that Al Gore still exists, but only fools and Presidential "front-runners," so named for the ample leaks of bodily fluids from their anterior orifices, give serious credence to his emissions.


Why is "coldest" so little reported? "Hottest" gets prominent reports all the time

Post lifted from Don Surber

Updating my mid-February post: Coldest. February. Ever.

Fort Wayne Journal-Gazette: "City endures third-coldest February"

Toledo Blade: "February is ranked as city’s 6th-coldest"

Muncie Star-Press: "This February was coldest, snowiest in decades"

Youngstown Vindicator: "February made us shiver with near record lows, lots of snow"

Toronto Star: "February was the coldest in 28 years . . ."

570 News (Canada): "The University of Waterloo Weather Station says it's the coldest February they have ever tracked."

Roanoke Times: "We may be living in cold, historic times . . . If the month had ended Monday, this would be the coldest February on record at Roanoke, edging out the only other two Februarys with an average temperature below 30 degrees — February 1978 (29.5 degrees) and February 1979 ( 29.3 degrees)."

Ag "FEBRUARY SUMMARY: It was the coldest February since at least 1989 (18 years) and possibly 1979 for the nation as a whole, and the month is expected to rank between the 8th and 15th coldest in 113 years of national records. National precipitation trended up 134% over last year with snowfall up 60% over last year. Tornadoes and severe weather were also up with 89 during the month vs only 12 last year. Gasoline prices trended up 6% vs last year and were at the highest levels since middle September."

Chicago Tribune: "9th coldest February in 137 years; 4th snowiest since 1929."

Indianapolis Star: "The rising temperatures will be a sharp contrast to the bitter cold Hoosiers experienced during February, which was among the five coldest and snowiest months ever recorded for the metro area."

Philadelphia Inquirer: "Capping one of the most radical winter flip-flops on record, the region has just endured its coldest February since Jimmy Carter was president and Frank Rizzo was Philadelphia’s mayor."

Aberdeen American News: "It is likely February 2007 will end up being the second coldest February on record."

Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported: “South Korea Has Warmest Winter in 100 Years on Global Warming

They˜have politicized the weather. None of the coldest February stories mention climate.

New Report Finds Red-faced Errors by IPCC and Gore

An analysis of the United Nations widely-touted 2007 IPCC Global Warming Summary for Policymakers by UK Lord Viscount Monckton has found 31 errors and exaggerations. Since Lord Monckton alerted the UN about its errors, the UN substantially rewrote and corrected the report, Monckton claims in his new analysis. (see here)

The Viscount Monckton of Brenchley, an aide to former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, sent the UN a list of 31 errors and exaggerations shortly after launch of the summary in February 2007 of its latest report on the science of climate change.

The UN's climate-change body, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, did not reply directly to Lord Monckton's criticism, but made many of the corrections nevertheless. "The tradition of elementary but serious scientific errors, of which the notorious `hockey-stick' graph of estimated global temperatures over the past 1,000 years is an example, is alive and well in the UN's 2007 report," Lord Monckton said.

"The UN has still not corrected or apologized for the `hockey-stick', by which it falsely abolished the mediaeval warm period, when temperatures were 2 or 3C warmer than today, and disaster failed to ensue. But it has been forced to correct several schoolboy howlers - though it has not had the honesty to announce publicly and clearly that it has done so," Monckton said. "The heavily-corrected version of the IPCC report has been furtively posted on the IPCC's website, There has been no public statement by the IPCC admitting to the errors," Monckton added.

The UN has been forced to halve its high-end estimate of the rise in sea-level to 2100, and it has also sharply reduced its estimate of our entire effect on the climate since 1750, according to Monckton. Monckton echoed UK Lord Nigel Lawson's call that the IPCC be disbanded. "It is too politicized and too incompetent to serve any useful purpose," Monckton said.

Monckton's new analysis also points out significant science errors in Al Gore's Oscar winning film "An Inconvenient Truth." "The IPCC's exaggerations and errors parallel those of Al Gore in his notorious sci-fi horror film An Inconvenient Truth, now being peddled to schoolchildren worldwide," Monckton said.


Another assumption of the climate "models" crumbles

The growth of methane -- one of the most potent global warming gases -- has stalled after rapidly rising in the Earth's atmosphere for more than a century, Oregon scientists say. In the most detailed look at methane measurements, researchers at Portland State University and Oregon Health & Science University find that the buildup of methane in the atmosphere has been slowing for nearly a quarter of a century. And the Oregon scientists don't foresee methane emissions increasing again anytime soon because of human activities. "It's good news because you have one global-warming gas that's not increasing very rapidly, or at all," said Aslam Khalil, an atmospheric physicist at PSU.

Khalil -- with PSU doctoral student Christopher Butenhoff and atmospheric chemist Rei Rasmussen of OHSU's OGI School of Science & Engineering -- reported the results this month in the journal Environmental Science & Technology.

A key reason for the flattened methane levels may be changes in the way China grows rice, Khalil and PSU researcher Martha Shearer found in another study. In the past 30 years, China has reduced rice-growing areas and replaced methane-generating organic fertilizers -- animal and human excrement -- with nitrogen-based fertilizers, they said. In addition, the growers are using less water, which also reduces methane emissions. "There may be methane sources that are increasing, but they're being balanced by the decrease in methane from rice fields," Khalil said. "So I don't think methane is going to go up unless there's some new force that has been increasing and hasn't kicked in yet."

Methane -- 20 times more efficient than carbon dioxide at trapping heat on Earth -- has more than doubled in the atmosphere in the past two centuries. It is the second most important greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide, which is more prevalent and lasts longer in the atmosphere. Emissions of methane can be traced to human activities -- such as rice paddies, landfills, cattle-raising and fossil-fuel extraction -- as well as natural sources such as wetlands and termites.

Khalil and Rasmussen have teamed up for more than two decades to measure and assess the growing concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. In 1981, they were the first scientists to identify and report that methane was increasing in the atmosphere. Their latest work reveals that the leveling-off period for methane is longer than other scientists had found. In the recent study, the researchers found that annual increases in methane concentrations have gradually slowed from about 25 parts per billion in 1980 to about 5 parts per billion in 2004. Because of this, Khalil said, climate models and scenarios that include a steady rise in methane may need to be revised.

The researchers looked at methane measurements taken between 1981 and 2004 at a network of sites -- including a station at Cape Meares -- that OGI once operated and by an array of sampling sites now operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. "The 23-year emission data really says there has been no continued increase in methane into the atmosphere," said Rasmussen. "For all practical purposes, the amount that is being emitted into the atmosphere is being destroyed in the atmosphere at about the same rate."

More here

Those pesky Polar bears won't do what the Greenies want them to

Their status ranges from a "vulnerable" to "endangered" and could be declared "threatened" if the U.S. decides the polar bear is collateral damage of climate change. Nobody talks about "overpopulated" when discussing the bears' outlook. Yet despite the Canadian government 's $150-million commitment last week to fund 44 International Polar Year research projects, a key question is not up for detailed scientific assessment: If the polar bear is the 650-kilogram canary in the climate change coal mine, why are its numbers INCREASING?

The latest government survey of polar bears roaming the vast Arctic expanses of northern Quebec, Labrador and southern Baffin Island show the population of polar bears has jumped to 2,100 animals from around 800 in the mid-1980s. As recently as three years ago, a less official count placed the number at 1,400. The Inuit have always insisted the bears' demise was greatly exaggerated by scientists doing projections based on fly-over counts, but their input was usually dismissed as the ramblings of self-interested hunters. As Nunavut government biologist Mitch Taylor observed in a front-page story in the Nunatsiaq News last month, "the Inuit were right. There aren't just a few more bears. There are a hell of a lot more bears."

Their widely portrayed lurch toward extinction on a steadily melting ice cap is not supported by bear counts in other Arctic regions either. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service is collecting feedback on whether to declare the polar bear "threatened" under its Endangered Species Act, joining the likes of the rare red-cockaded woodpecker, the lesser prairie chicken and the Sonoran pronghorn, which are afforded official protection and species recovery management. The service held its first public hearing on the polar bear project last night in Washington D.C.

But background papers for the debate hardly justify a rush to protect the bear from extinction if its icy habitat fades to green. The service identifies six Arctic regions where data are insufficient to make a call on the population, including the aforementioned Baffin shores area. Another six areas are listed as having stable counts, three experienced reduced numbers and two have seen their bears increase. Inuit also argue the bear population is on the rise along western Hudson Bay, in sharp contrast to the Canadian Wildlife Service, which projects a 22% decline in bear numbers.

Far be it for me to act as a climate- change denier, but that's hardly overwhelming proof of a species in peril in Canada, which claims roughly two thirds of the world's polar bear population. Reading international coverage of the bear, it's obvious Canada has become home to the official poster species for extinction by climate change. Everywhere you look, the "doomed" polar bear's story is illustrated with the classic photo of a mother and cub teetering on an fragile-looking ice floe, the ice full of holes and seemingly about to disappear into the sea. "The drama is clear: This is truly the tip of an iceberg, the bears are desperately stranded as the water swells around them," according to a recent article in The Observer magazine carrying the photo.

Something's always bothered me about that photo, which has been vilified on the Internet as a fake. Even if it's the real thing, the photographer was clearly standing on something solid not far from his forlorn looking subjects. For a species that can swim dozens of kilometres to find a decent seal dinner, a few hundred metres to shore is a leisurely doggie paddle to safety. So much for the optic of a doomed global warming victim on ice.

Of course, tracking polar bear populations is an inexact science. They roam about, which lends itself to double counting, and they're not easy to identify from any distance. Besides, polar bears do live on ice and satellite photos show the sea ice is down 7.7% in the last decade. So something is happening up there. But while Prime Minister Stephen Harper has embraced the religion of climate change and vows to combat it with billions of new dollars, the bear facts suggest the challenge facing our great white symbol may be more about too many bears than too little ice.



Many people would like to be kind to others so Leftists exploit that with their nonsense about equality. Most people want a clean, green environment so Greenies exploit that by inventing all sorts of far-fetched threats to the environment. But for both, the real motive is generally to promote themselves as wiser and better than everyone else, truth regardless.

Global warming has taken the place of Communism as an absurdity that "liberals" will defend to the death regardless of the evidence showing its folly. Evidence never has mattered to real Leftists

For more postings from me, see TONGUE-TIED, EDUCATION WATCH, POLITICAL CORRECTNESS WATCH, FOOD & HEALTH SKEPTIC, GUN WATCH, SOCIALIZED MEDICINE, AUSTRALIAN POLITICS, DISSECTING LEFTISM, IMMIGRATION WATCH and EYE ON BRITAIN. My Home Pages are here or here or here. Email me (John Ray) here. For times when is playing up, there are mirrors of this site here and here.


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