Wednesday, March 15, 2023
There Is No Energy Transition, Just Energy Addition
As Liberty Energy CEO Chris Wright explained in his viral video a few weeks ago, dishonest terminology surrounds the climate debate. One of these terms is “Energy Transition”. The term’s use gives the impression that there exists a quick, easy and scalable alternative to eliminate fossil fuel use without serious impact on people.
Current primary energy distribution by source, and forecasts by organizations like the EIA in their International Energy Outlook 2021, show that this “energy transition” is non-existent. As you can see in the title graph above, and also in Liberty’s ESG report on Bettering Human Lives, on a net basis no present quantity of primary energy generated by fossil fuels is currently replaced by renewables. A couple of headlines from the report that you don’t hear a lot:
Global primary energy use is about to grow by almost 50% between 2020 – 2050 as impoverished people rise from poverty;
Oil consumption rises in all EIA scenarios. In their “Reference Scenario”, oil consumption rises at about 1 million bopd/year for the next 30 years, almost the same steady yearly increase of the last 5 decades;
Natural gas consumption will continue to growth through 2050.
The reason for this growth is simple: fossil fuels are abundant, cheap and efficient to provide reliable and dense energy at scale. They have helped to generate a quality-of-life revolution for a portion of humanity, and people in poverty who have missed out on this blessing rightfully want what you and I already have.
Sadly, few report on this blessing we take for granted. Good news about renewables breaking records, however, is widespread and often inflated. There are a few marketing strategies renewable advocates have used that make it appear as if renewables have a larger market share than they really do:
First, using the word “energy” or “power” when they mean “electricity”. Take this Reuters report as an example: “Renewable energy is expected to account for around 46% of German power consumption this year….” This sounds like Germans are running on renewables for almost half of their energy needs. But this is JUST for electricity. According to the BP Statistical Review and graphed below by OurWorldInData.org for world electricity vs primary power, worldwide electricity represents only 17% of all primary power. That’s also where is currently stands in Germany. In 2021, Germany’s top three primary energy sources were oil, natural gas and coal.
Second, reporting renewable records without mentioning they only last a short time. As an example, this article boasts renewables powering 85% of Germany’s electricity needs. But like electricity's primary power sources reported in the plot below by Timera Energy, records in wind and solar don’t last very long, and there are times when they don’t provide anything at all. Fossil fuels are there to back them up. Energy reliability is a marathon, not a sprint.
Third, reporting power capacity, not energy output. Renewables really shine using this metric because they don’t work most of the time. If you have ever spent time in western Europe, you will know that the sun there, like most Europeans, only has a 32-hour work week, while it gives little heads up when it will show up. What to do during the remaining 136 hours that week? You need to build a lot of power capacity to harvest a little energy. As per BP Statistical Review, the world capacity factor is only 14% for solar and 26% for wind. Therefore, if you see a historical power capacity growth curve, divide the solar curve’s slope by 7 and the wind curve’s slope by 4 to get energy output. Consumers pay for MWh, not MW.
Lastly, lumping in “traditional biofuels” to boost the share of renewables as part of total energy needs. These traditional biofuels kill millions of people yearly through PM2.5 particle release during indoor cooking. If there is an “energy transition” humanity needs ASAP, it is the transition from the traditional renewable cooking fuels to clean-burning fossil cooking fuels.
These unfair reporting methodologies have led to confusion and a belief that an “Energy Transition” is currently in the making. It is not.
The EIA primary energy forecast for the next 30 years shows that ALL sources of energy are growing. While renewables are expected to comprise a larger fraction of a growing pie, fossil fuels are expected to grow more in absolute terms.
Recently, a spark of sanity has returned to the debate about nuclear power. For a reliable, cost-effective, low-carbon and scalable energy transition, we need to take the path proposed by Robert Bryce in his book Power Hungry. In the near-term, we need more natural gas, which reduces our CO2 footprint and is cheap, reliable and abundant. For the long-term, we need to build nuclear energy, hopefully eventually nuclear fusion. Before that, let’s hope a spark of sanity returns to the discussion about the “Energy Transition”.
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Now Biden's Coming For Your Washing Machine, New Regulations Could Ruin Laundry Day Forever
Biden’s Energy Department last month proposed new efficiency standards for washing machines that would require new appliances to use considerably less water, all in an effort to “confront the global climate crisis.” Those mandates would force manufacturers to reduce cleaning performance to ensure their machines comply, leading industry giants such as Whirlpool said in public comments on the rule. They’ll also make the appliances more expensive and laundry day a headache—each cycle will take longer, the detergent will cost more, and in the end, the clothes will be less clean, the manufacturers say.
The proposed washing machine rule marks the latest example of the administration turning to consumer regulations to advance its climate change goals. Last month, the Energy Department published an analysis of its proposed cooking appliance efficiency regulations, which it found would effectively ban half of all gas stoves on the U.S. market from being sold. The department has also proposed new efficiency standards for refrigerators, which could come into effect in 2027. “Collectively these energy efficiency actions … support President Biden’s ambitious clean energy agenda to combat the climate crisis,” the Energy Department said in February.
While the Energy Department—which did not return a request for comment—acknowledged in its proposal that “maintaining acceptable cleaning performance can be more difficult as energy and water levels are reduced,” it expressed confidence that Whirlpool and other appliance manufacturers can comply with its regulations without sacrificing stain removal and other performance standards. For the Heritage Foundation’s Travis Fisher, however, manufacturer concerns over the proposal are justified.
“When you’re squeezing all you can out of the efficiency in terms of electricity use and water … you by definition either make the appliance worse or slower,” said Fisher, who serves as a senior research fellow at the foundation’s Center for Energy, Climate, and Environment. “Why are we so focused on the energy output, as opposed to if it’s helping me wash my clothes? That standard has kind of gone off the rails.”
Beyond the performance standard debate, the Association of Home Appliance Manufacturers argued that the Energy Department’s washing machine regulations “would have a disproportionate, negative impact on low-income households” by eliminating cheaper appliances from the market. The Energy Department estimates that manufacturers will incur nearly $700 million in conversion costs to transition to the new machines.
Biden and his Democrat buddies won’t rest until your life is totally miserable.
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Germany leads renewed calls to oppose Europe’s 2035 new petrol and diesel car ban
The German government has formed an alliance with six countries to push back on the European Union’s proposed effective ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars by 2035, centring its case around synthetic fuels, according to overseas reports.
Last month, European Parliament members approved a proposal which would effectively bring an end to the sale of new petrol and diesel cars – also referred to as internal-combustion engine (or ICE) vehicles – from 2035.
While a vote by the European Union to enact the laws is considered a formality in proceedings, the process was delayed last week after the German government entered talks with the EU over the allowance of synthetic fuels, which would mean new cars powered by petrol or diesel could continue to be manufactured and sold after 2035.
According to news agency Reuters, the Czech Republic, Italy, Poland, Romania, Hungary and Slovakia support Germany’s proposed concession to allow synthetic fuels to keep combustion engines alive.
"The (EU) proposal needs changes urgently," German transport minister Volker Wissing told news agency Reuters. "A ban on the combustion engine, when it can run in a climate-neutral way, seems a wrong approach for us."
As previously reported, German car-maker Porsche has been at the forefront of synthetic petrol development – where carbon is captured from the atmosphere and recycled into fuel – having spent more than $US100 million ($AU144 million) on biofuels since 2020.
German car giant BMW (and its sister brand Mini) and Italian marque Lamborghini have also been investing in separate synthetic fuel projects, while Ferrari has reportedly also been pushing for the adoption of synthetic fuels as a carbon-neutral alternative.
When the proposal was passed by the European Parliament in February, low-volume car-makers were granted an extra year to meet the new emissions rules – allowing manufacturers which produce fewer than 10,000 vehicles per year until 2036 to comply with the regulations.
As reported last week, the German Government has also expressed concerns over the proposed 'Euro 7' laws, which would require a significant reduction in tailpipe emissions by 2025.
These regulations have been signalled by many manufacturers as making it no longer feasible to produce small and affordable petrol-powered city cars from the middle of the decade.
https://www.drive.com.au/news/germany-opposes-europe-2035-petrol-diesel-car-ban/ ?
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Net Zero Watch has welcomed the decision by the Bank of England to demote its Net Zero agenda and cut its spending on climate change
According to reports, the bank’s climate programmes will be downgraded so that officials can return to work on its main remit, namely the nation’s financial stability.
The bank has been widely blamed for allowing inflation to rocket to more than five times the bank’s 2% target.
Its obsession with climate change, promoted and pushed through by its former governor, Mark Carney, in tandem with government ministers, has for years distracted it from its main responsibilities. Instead, it has been enforcing ESG disclosure guidelines, carbon-testing balance sheets and promoting Net Zero policies.
During his time as Governor, Net Zero Watch criticised Mr Carney repeatedly, warning that his climate activism and his intimidation of financial institutions and pension funds into costly Net Zero targets would eventually lead to policy failure and a distressed correction. This correction appears to have now begun.
Last year, Net Zero Watch criticised the Bank’s so-called ‘climate stress test’, which used discredited projections of a global temperature change of 3.3°C by 2050, far exceeding even the IPCC’s much-criticised SSP5-8.5 scenario.
Dr Benny Peiser, Net Zero Watch’s director, called on the Bank of England and the Financial Conduct Authority to accept that the risk of costly climate and Net Zero policies have become a bigger threat to the UK’s economy and financial stability than climate change.
"Unless the Bank of England abandons its fixation with green virtue-signalling, it is only storing up more problems for the economy and the UK’s financial system."
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My other blogs. Main ones below
http://dissectleft.blogspot.com (DISSECTING LEFTISM )
http://edwatch.blogspot.com (EDUCATION WATCH)
http://pcwatch.blogspot.com (POLITICAL CORRECTNESS WATCH)
http://australian-politics.blogspot.com (AUSTRALIAN POLITICS)
http://snorphty.blogspot.com/ (TONGUE-TIED)
http://jonjayray.com/blogall.html More blogs
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Jim Hansen and his twin
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