Climate change will quadruple extreme rainfall events, study suggests
"Suggests" is the right word. This is just modelling and a model simply gives you back the assumptions you have put into it. It proves nothing. This is just a publicity grab
Extreme downpours could become four times more frequent by 2080 if greenhouse gas emissions remain high, a new study suggests.
Climate scientists at the Met Office have found that for every degree of regional warming, the intensity of extreme downpours could also increase by 5-15%.
By the 2070s, deluges of more than 20mm of rain per hour could occur four times as frequently as they did in the 1980s. London typically receives about 40-50mm of rain in a month.
In July 2021, 40mm fell on the capital in just three hours, flooding 31 Tube stations and 2,000 properties.
The Met Office researchers said forecasting long-term trends for extreme rain will help planners and policymakers adapt to the changing risk.
Three million properties across England are currently at risk from surface water flooding, with urban areas in steep catchments, such as Hebden Bridge in West Yorkshire, particularly vulnerable.
Using a high resolution model normally used for weather forecasting, Met Office climate scientist Professor Lizzie Kendon and colleagues examined how local weather patterns could change over a 100-year timespan – between 1980 and 2080.
They ran the model 12 times at a resolution of 2.2km which gave them a more accurate picture of how the frequency of heavy downpours is likely to change over the coming decades.
Previously, less accurate, lower resolution models had found a smaller increase of two to three times as many extreme rain events by the 2070s.
Prof Kendon said: “Being able to look at our projected future climate in such detail has unlocked an incredible amount of information and has shown how expected increases in intense rainfall events will actually manifest at local scale and for the coming years.
“Having this level of detail is crucial to ensure that we’re prepared for the possible extremes of the future.”
Our study highlights the complexity of how natural climate variability and human-induced climate change will come together in the extreme rainfall events we experience over the UK
Higher temperatures create more extreme rainfall because warmer air holds more moisture – 7% for each degree – leading to a greater amount of water falling when clouds finally burst.
Much of the UK’s wet weather comes from clouds which form over the Atlantic and are carried east on the jet stream, which is why the west and north of the UK are generally wetter than the south and east.
The researchers found such regional differences in their climate modelling. North-west Scotland for example could see almost 10 times as many extreme downpours in 2080 as in 1980, whereas the south of the UK could see around three times as many.
The modelling also showed that extreme downpours are likely to fall in clusters because of natural climate variability adjusting conditions favourable for their occurrence.
Prof Kendon warned against trying to predict long-term trends through observation, adding: “The observed rainfall record in the UK is fairly erratic with a large amount of variability, these latest projections show that this is likely to continue through the century.
“What we can see from the higher resolution output is an even more erratic frequency of extreme events each year, so this could mean we see clusters of record-breaking intense rainfall events, followed by a period when no records are broken.
“Despite the underlying trend, these pauses in the intensification of local rainfall extremes can last a surprisingly long time – even multiple decades.”
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Climate Scientists Told To ‘Cover Up’ No Temperature Rise Since 1998
Scientists working on the most authoritative study on ‘climate change’ were urged to cover up the fact that the world’s temperature hasn’t risen for the last 15 years, it is claimed
A leaked copy of a United Nations report, compiled by hundreds of scientists, shows politicians in Belgium, Germany, Hungary and the United States raised concerns about the final draft.
Published next week, it is expected to address the fact that 1998 was the hottest year on record and world temperatures have not yet exceeded it, which scientists have so far struggled to explain.
The report is the result of six years’ work by UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which is seen (by some-Ed) as the world authority on the extent of ‘climate change’ and what is causing it – on which governments including Britain’s base their green policies.
But leaked documents seen by the Associated Press, yesterday revealed deep concerns among politicians about a lack of global warming over the past few years.
Germany called for the references to the slowdown in warming to be deleted, saying looking at a time span of just 10 or 15 years was ‘misleading’ and they should focus on decades or centuries.
Hungary worried the report would ‘provide ammunition for deniers of man-made climate change’.
Belgium objected to using 1998 as a starting year for statistics, as it was exceptionally warm and makes the graph look flat – and suggested using 1999 or 2000 instead to give a more upward-pointing curve.
The United States delegation even weighed in, urging the authors of the report to explain away the lack of warming using the ‘leading hypothesis’ among scientists that the lower warming is down to more heat being absorbed by the ocean – which has got hotter.
The last IPCC ‘assessment report’ was published in 2007 and has been the subject of huge controversy after it had to correct the embarrassing claim that the Himalayas would melt by 2035.
It was then engulfed in the ‘Climategate’ scandal surrounding leaked emails showing scientists involved in it trying to manipulate their data to make it look more convincing.
The latest report, which runs to 2,000 pages, will be shown to representatives from all 195 governments next week at a meeting in Stockholm, who can discuss alterations they want to make.
But since it was issued to governments in June, they have raised hundreds of objections about the 20-page summary for policymakers, which sums up the findings of the scientists.
What it says will inform renewable energy policies and how much consumers and businesses will pay for them.
The report is expected to say the rate of warming between 1998 and 2012 was about half of the average rate since 1951 – and put this down to natural variations such as the El Nino and La Nina ocean cycles and the cooling effects of volcanoes.
A German climate scientist – Stefan Rahmstorf, who reviewed the chapter on sea levels – yesterday admitted it was possible the report’s authors were feeling under pressure to address the slowdown in warming due to the ‘public debate’ around the issue.
The draft report, which is not new research but a synthesis of all the work being done by scientists around the world, is likely to be highly disputed at the three-day meeting.
It will make the case that humans are causing global warming with carbon emissions even more strongly upgrading it from ‘very likely’ in 2007 to ‘extremely likely’ it is manmade.
But scientists are under pressure to explain why the warming has not exceeded 1998 levels although the decade 2000-2010 was the hottest on record.
Alden Meyer, of the Union of Concerned Scientists based in Washington, said yesterday:
‘I think to not address it would be a problem because then you basically have the denialists saying: ‘Look the IPCC is silent on this issue.’
Jonathan Lynn, a spokesman for the IPCC said yesterday:
‘This is the culmination of four years’ work by hundreds of scientists, where governments get a chance to ensure the summary for policymakers is clear and concise in a dialogue with the scientists who wrote it, and have the opportunity to raise any topics they think should be highlighted.’
https://principia-scientific.com/climate-scientists-told-to-cover-up-no-temperature-rise-since-1998/
**********************************************America’s $100 Billion Bust on Climate Change
For at least the last 20 years, politicians in Washington, at the behest of green energy groups, have spent some $100 billion of taxpayer money to fight climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. How is that going for us so far?
A recent Associated Press story, based on the latest data on global carbon emissions, provides a pretty accurate report card: “Carbon Dioxide Emissions Reached a Record High in 2022.”
The article tells us: “Communities around the world emitted more carbon dioxide in 2022 than in any other year on records dating to 1900, a result of air travel rebounding from the pandemic and more cities turning to coal as a low-cost source of power.”
The article adds that “Emissions of the climate-warming gas that were caused by energy production grew 0.9 percent to reach 36.8 gigatons in 2022, the International Energy Agency reported Thursday. (The mass of one gigaton is equivalent to about 10,000 fully loaded aircraft carriers, according to NASA.)”
You’ve got to almost shriek out loud when you read that the “report was described as disconcerting by climate scientists.”
“Disconcerting”? That’s putting it lightly. We are the furthest thing from being climate change alarmists, but when you spend $100 billion of taxpayer money and achieve absolutely nothing, President Biden and his green allies should be arrested for criminal fraud.
Where did all the money go? Tens of billions of dollars have lined the pockets of left-wing environmental and social justice groups that have been emitting a lot of hot air but no results. Green energy companies have milked taxpayers of tens of billions more, even as wind and solar only produce about 12 percent of our energy.
Is this the greatest ripoff of U.S. taxpayers in history?
I’ve often said that I doubt all the doomsday predictions of global warming are accurate, but if they are, we are goners. Because nothing the Left is doing on climate change is making even the tiniest bit of difference, as the new report shows. What it is doing is giving politicians and activists a chance to virtue-signal. Does it even matter to them that none of their schemes are working?
The most obvious flaw in the green strategy is that few, if any, of the big polluters are cooperating despite the assurances from Mr. Biden’s climate change ambassador, State Secretary Kerry. For the umpteenth time: The United States is not the problem — China is. Its pollution levels are three times higher than ours. Soon India will surpass America in carbon emissions.
Even the top scientists who study climate change admit that without progress from China, nothing America does to reduce emissions will reverse the global trends. America has reduced our emissions more than any other nation, and the problem continues to get worse. And yet, the rest of the world blames America.
All we are accomplishing in the Biden war on fossil fuels is kneecapping our own domestic energy industry while the rest of the world consumes more fossil fuels than ever before. Instead of the oil and gas produced in Texas or North Dakota, it’s coming from Russia, Iran and OPEC. The energy source that is growing the fastest now is coal.
The only way to combat climate change is not through more command-and-control government action. That never works. The Covid crisis and the incompetent government response should have taught us that lesson. We need more growth and better technology to deal with a changing climate. The leftists want less growth and have even been backing “degrowth.” Since when is making America poorer the solution to any problem?
In the wake of this epic policy failure, the Democrats aren’t backing off. Mr. Biden’s latest budget calls for $500 billion more for climate change over the next decade. Talk about throwing good money after bad. We shouldn’t be too surprised because, as Milton Friedman used to remind us, anytime a government program isn’t working, the politicians’ response is: “We aren’t spending enough money.”
If congressional Republicans are smart (a big if), they will not appropriate one penny more for this epic public policy flop. If we want to save our country’s future for our children, the first step is to stop adding to our $32 trillion national debt.
https://www.nysun.com/article/americas-100-billion-climate-change-flop
************************************************Time for leftist media to terrify people with articles about snow!
The articles below are in the tradition of articles that we have seen for decades saying we could look forward to snowless winters because of humans and our use of natural resources.
What is missing from every one of these articles is a direct link connecting oil consumption, CO2 content, or any other such thing with temperatures and snow. But the truth has never mattered to the media and other leftists when they have set out to destroy the oil industry.
They cannot explain why we had a cooling period from 1940 to 1975, where essentially the same people who are warning of an existential threat of warming were warning of an existential threat that billions would die from an existential threat of a coming ice age. Here is a hint for sycophant journalists who just repeat what they are told.
Snow has been a no-show for some traditionally wintry cities
A big reason for the lack of snow has been the warmer conditions, Robinson says — conditions driven in part by human-induced climate change. The northeast is among the fastest warming regions in the country.
Another story in Yahoo on Monday, which published the indoctrination piece above, talks about record snowfall in California this year. Can't the journalists read or think? If we have record cold and snow in some parts of the country and record warmth in another part of the country, humans and natural resources aren't causing the warm temperatures and snowless winters. The climate is and has always been cyclical and natural.
Dramatic photos show aftermath of historic snowfall, winter storms blanketing California
This is the snowiest first five months of the snow season in the Sierra Nevada since 1970, almost fifty feet so far.
Graphics show snowfall totals in California: Over 50 feet with more expected this weekend
Five months into this water year, counted Oct. 1 through Sept. 30, more than 44 feet has fallen there at the Central Snow Laboratory, a University of California, Berkeley field research station. That's more than double the median of 21.7 feet by this time of year.
"We have had the snowiest October through February going back to 1970," said Andrew Schwartz, lead scientist and manager at the snow lab.
“We're within 3½ feet from the 2017 water year total of 47.77 feet, which is our third largest snowfall year on record in the last three decades," Schwartz said. The lab record for a water year is 53.58 feet set in 2011.
It is a simple concept: humans and natural resources cannot cause both record snow and no snow. Sadly, journalists don't care. They and other Democrats are the party of fear. They want to scare children and others into capitulation, whether it is about the climate or COVID.
Everything to leftists is about power. They do not care how much damage they do to the poor, the middle class, or the overall economy. They don't care how much inflation they unnecessarily cause. They don't care that their destructive policies help Russia finance their war.
They are pathetic and dangerous!
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My other blogs. Main ones below
http://dissectleft.blogspot.com (DISSECTING LEFTISM )
http://edwatch.blogspot.com (EDUCATION WATCH)
http://pcwatch.blogspot.com (POLITICAL CORRECTNESS WATCH)
http://australian-politics.blogspot.com (AUSTRALIAN POLITICS)
http://snorphty.blogspot.com/ (TONGUE-TIED)
http://jonjayray.com/blogall.html More blogs
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Jim Hansen and his twin
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