Monday, September 19, 2016

Nearly every one of these is routinely violated by Warmists

Does the El Nino Cycle Reveal a Flaw in Man-Made Global Warming Theory?

Increased humidity is NOT self-sustaining

Most people are unaware that the bulk of anthropogenic (man-made) global warming theory (AGW) is built on the concept of atmospheric water vapor feedback—not rising carbon dioxide (CO2) levels. Plenty of climate critics have questioned the soundness of this assumption, however, and evidence of its flaws may be more obvious than we realize.

Here’s the essence of AGW theory: CO2 is something of a limited greenhouse gas, in that it rapidly becomes saturated in the atmosphere. CO2’s limitations stem from the fact that, even in minute concentrations, it quickly renders the atmosphere opaque to a certain spectrum band of infrared radiation. And past that saturation point, additional concentrations of CO2 can offer only a minuscule and ever-diminishing amount of further heat-trapping function.

However, climate alarmists propose that the small amount of additional heat that CO2 traps in the atmosphere (before it becomes saturated) can sustain a corresponding rise in atmospheric water vapor content. Notably, water vapor is the primary “greenhouse” gas in the atmosphere and accounts for the overwhelming majority of atmospheric “greenhouse” function.

This additional quantity of atmospheric water vapor is expected to trap more heat, leading to a positive feedback “loop” of further heat-trapping, which will sustain yet more atmospheric water vapor, further raising temperatures, etc.

The obvious question mark in all of this is the issue of cloud formation. Atmospheric water vapor inevitably condenses into clouds, and transitions to rainfall that exercises some of this trapped energy. And cumulus clouds in the troposphere also reflect sunlight back into space.

Thus, the only way for water vapor to succeed as a positive feedback is for relative humidity to remain constant—that is, for the proportion of moisture forming into clouds to remain perpetually constant, no matter the increase in temperature—and not yield additional cloud cover.

The need for relative humidity to remain constant puts climate scientists in a bit of a quandary, however, since cloud formation is an inevitable result of atmospheric humidity.

Suppose, though, that we could look at an example of a massive injection of heat and humidity into the atmosphere, and then study the results. What might we find?

Fortunately, it’s not hard to conduct such an experiment, since El Nino weather patterns offer exactly the sort of warming needed to consider the impacts of added heat and humidity.

In 1998, the planet experienced a major El Nino, with temperatures spiking by several tenths of a degree for almost a year. A 2010 El Nino was more muted. But the recent 2015-2016 El Nino was a massive occurrence, with temperatures soaring globally to potentially record heights.

It’s important to consider that El Ninos are not simply ephemeral, and they are not random occurrences. They do in fact represent a profound shift in Pacific Ocean circulation patterns.

Typically, equatorial winds blow east to west in the Pacific. These winds continually push warm surface water toward the western Pacific. Over time, a large surplus of this warm water accumulates in the west. When this pile of warmer water begins to leak back eastward it can shift rising convection patterns, helping to shut down the prevailing east-to-west winds.

Once that happens, the warm, trapped water in the west comes spilling back, unfurling a massive surface area of trapped heat—which rises upward, carrying tremendous amounts of heat (and humidity) into the atmosphere. This huge, added volume of heat content not only raises global temperatures but also succeeds in shifting weather patterns worldwide. (The recent El Nino yielded such strange occurrences as the Northeast United States experiencing balmy winter days at the same time that the Southwest was plunged into unusually cold weather.)

Significantly, the injection of such a whopping amount of heat into the atmosphere, along with far more atmospheric humidity, duplicates some of the presumptions of AGW theory. Not only did global temperatures rise, but the added humidity helped to trap additional heat at the same time—further spiking temperatures. And the overall process took months to build, with temperatures progressively rising during that time.

But as was seen with even the most recent El Nino, these higher temperatures inevitably wash out. There are obvious weather disturbances during an El Nino, but cycles of rainfall help to gradually equalize conditions, eventually leading to a sharp drop off, as global temperatures fall back to their “starting point.”

Meteorologists often watch for a post-El Nino transition to a “La Nina,” wherein east-to-west winds reinitiate, drawing up colder, underlying waters in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. La Nina activity can drive an accompanying drop in global temperatures as these colder, upwelling waters absorb surface heat.

While no apparent La Nina has yet developed after the most recent El Nino, global temperatures still dropped precipitously at the end.

What’s interesting to ponder in watching this El Nino cycle is how clearly the additional heat and humidity failed to sustain itself, or drive a concurrent, longer-term rise in temperatures. Some of the elements of projected water vapor feedback (as expressed by AGW theory) were indeed present, yet atmospheric processes inevitably countervailed, and temperatures eventually fell.

If AGW theory trusts that an ongoing rise in atmospheric heat content will support an accompanying rise in evaporated water content, and thus lead to positive feedback for further warming, the El Nino cycle demonstrates that the mechanism to do so is more tenuous than presumed. Indeed, the global weather cycle readily demonstrates that evaporation and rain cycles innately tend to “wash out” such added humidity.

Overall, the water vapor feedback of AGW theory assumes a very high climate “sensitivity” to CO2. But just as the issue of cloud formation makes the issue more problematic, El Nino cycles show that water vapor feedback has obvious limits. And so, we see another reason to scrutinize man-made global warming theory, and to question its overall plausibility.


API Chief on Obama Halting Dakota Access Pipeline: ‘We No Longer Honor the Rule of Law in the United States’

Jack Gerard, CEO and president of the trade association American Petroleum Institution (API), said on Thursday that President Barack Obama’s decision to override a federal judge’s ruling to allow the Dakota Access Pipeline construction to go forward in South Dakota violates “the rule of law.”

“The reaction on the part of the administration is really stunning and makes people raise the fundamental question that we no longer honor the rule of law in the United States,” Gerard told in an exclusive interview on Capitol Hill.

On Friday, U.S. District Judge James E. Boasberg ruled that the Standing Rock Sioux tribe, which sought an injunction to halt the pipeline, “had not demonstrated that an injunction is warranted here,” and that the project should continue.

Shortly after the decision was released, the Obama administration – through the Departments of Justice and Interior and the Army Corps of Engineers – said in a statement that while the court ruling was “appreciated,” the project should not proceed until consultations were made with the tribe.

"This case has highlighted the need for a serious discussion on whether there should be nationwide reform with respect to considering tribes' views on these types of infrastructure projects," the federal agencies said in the joint statement.

Gerard, who noted that the judge in the case was appointed to review the project by the president, said the pipeline project isn’t on the tribe’s reservation and that the pipeline passing over the Missouri River – cited as a threat by the tribe -- is no different than other pipelines that already cross the river.

Gerard also said that the decision to halt this pipeline project would have a “chilling effect” on a much broader segment of the U.S. economy.

“A recent study shows that in this nation, in the United States, because of our American energy renaissance, there will be as much as $1.1 trillion over the next 11 years invested in just energy infrastructure,” Gerard said. “This will have a chilling effect on that investment if people believe that we no longer honor the rule the law, that we can make arbitrary decisions at any time to withdraw what has been demonstrated by courts and by government agencies to have met the rule of law.”

Gerard said that as many as 8,000 jobs are related to the Dakota Access Pipeline.
Meanwhile, Reuters reported recently that the decision could affect the oil industry as a whole.

“With the U.S. government siding in favor of Native American protests against a key North Dakota pipeline, local oil producers and shippers are facing the possibility of greater delays in getting a quick route to ship oil to the Gulf of Mexico,” Reuters reported, regarding the 40-mile stretch of the pipeline through North Dakota.

“The 1,100-mile (1,770 km), $3.7 billion Dakota Access pipeline was originally expected to start up later this year, to deliver more than 470,000 barrels per day of crude from North Dakota’s prolific Bakken shale play through Illinois and toward refinery row in the U.S. Gulf Coast,” Reuters reported.

“Should the pipeline be delayed for a substantial period, it would affect producers who had counted on demand for oil to be rapidly shipped to the U.S. Gulf, as well as shippers who could find themselves stuck with crude, putting them at risk of unloading it at a loss.”

Gerard also said that the claim that the pipeline poses a threat to water and other resources is an “unfounded allegation.”

“Today we move 99.999 percent of all products safely through our pipeline system. They’re state of the art. They’re environmentally sound,” Gerard said.

“It’s a scare tactic driven by professional agitators to discourage the development of oil and natural gas,” Gerard said.

The Sioux tribe, however, praised the Obama administration for its decision.

"Our hearts are full, this an historic day for the Standing Rock Sioux Tribe and for tribes across the nation," said tribal chairman Dave Archambault II. "Our voices have been heard."


France becomes first country to BAN non-biodegradable plastic cups, cutlery and plates

What's wrong with landfills?  A lot of parks and sports fields were once landfills

France has become the first country to pass a law banning plastic cups, cutlery and plates.  From 2020, producers will have to ensure all disposable crockery can be composted and is made from biologically-sourced materials.

The law aims to reduce the energy consumed and waste produced by the plastic processing industry, as well as the pollution caused by plastic litter.

The law, which was originally proposed by the Europe Ecologie-Greens Party, follows a ban on plastic bags in place since July.

Although environmental campaigners have lauded the ban, opponents argue it hurts consumers and violate European Union rules on free movement of goods.

Pack2Go Europe, a Brussels-based organization representing European packaging manufacturers, will fight the ban to stop it spreading to other countries.

Secretary general Eamonn Bates said: 'We are urging the European Commission to do the right thing and to take legal action against France for infringing European law.

The measures will ban sales of single-use plastic cups, plates and glasses unless they are made of bio-sourced materials that can be composted in a home composter.

But Mr Bates claimed no products made from bio-sourced plastics will degrade in a domestic composting unit.

He also said the ban 'will be understood by consumers to mean that it is OK to leave this packaging behind in the countryside after use' because it would quickly decompose.

French Environment Minister Segolene Royal was initially opposition to the law. She deemed it an 'anti-social' measure, arguing that families struggling financially make regular use of disposable tableware.

While several other countries and some U.S. states have also banned plastic bags, France appears to be the first country to introduce a blanket ban on plastic crockery.

It comes after Paris hosted a landmark conference last year on fighting global warming.  


Losses and corruption in the wind power business

A machine translation from Swedish below

A few days ago we read in the newspapers about wind power in Sweden is on its knees. Vattenfall's investments in wind power provides poor profitability, in spite of all subsidies. The value of wind farms is written down and the facilities that are only a few years old must start to be dismantled at great expense. So the company can no longer pay any dividends to the State says CEO Magnus Hall.

Vattenfall is not alone to go bad. This applies to almost all wind power companies that they have difficulties with profitability - some have gone bankrupt, leaving the cost to the landowners. The diagram below (which I wrote about here ), it is clear that investment in "sustainable" energy has fallen since 2011 in all of Europe. Although venture capitalists have pulled in their horns a long time ago, writes the Wall Street Journal.


The poor profitability and the losses due to government subsidies decreased over time. Wind power is namely an industry that can not stand on its own feet. Since 35 years, they have never been able to stand on their own but have always been dependent on the taxpayer billions. And when state finances are no longer able to finance further expansion falters as the entire industry.

So now is the wind industry desperate and increasing its lobbying against the public and politicians. One writes opinion articles in newspapers (and will thus free advertising), visiting communities around the country, promising jobs and income to the municipality, to support environmental organizations and university centers obediently for the message out about climate change and how the Green Energy Act can save us all. And they have their little green parties in parliament who willingly and cheerfully carry one madcap energy policy initiative after another.

But it's not enough. The wind power industry is still in disrepair. Now, even some old media in the believer Germany realized that the industry is corrupt . It is matter of sheer corruption when politicians decide on new wind projects that are in direct violation of its own voter preferences but which benefit themselves financially. Many of the local and regional climate minded politicians who decide on new wind farms are also landowners and therefore can rake in lot of beautiful treasure million.

We have similar cases in Sweden where municipal management goes against a clear majority as expressed in a referendum. I am thinking in particular on Sorseles con men in municipal government ( here and here ).

Disappointed environmentalists leaving environmental organizations once they realize that these are corrupt and go in the wind power industry ligaments. NGO leadership does not listen anymore when members across the country are sounding the alarm about how the wind turbines kill birds and destroying the countryside. Public support for wind power is falling rapidly in Germany. But the wind industry know how to remedy this. Instead of having the grassroots demonstrations calling for more and more political intervention against nuclear and fossil power so you pay the people who work with the wind to go out on the streets. Travel and accommodation are of course paid.

Follow the money

The wind industry is becoming increasingly brutal in order to get their business to make ends meet. TV series " Follow the Money " suddenly sounds more credible and realistic.


Your Time Is Up “Professor” Wadhams

Time’s up, so-called Professor Wadhams.  It is now exactly four years ago that you forecast the demise of Arctic sea ice this summer:

"One of the world’s leading ice experts has predicted the final collapse of Arctic sea ice in summer months within four years.

In what he calls a "global disaster" now unfolding in northern latitudes as the sea area that freezes and melts each year shrinks to its lowest extent ever recorded, Prof Peter Wadhams of Cambridge University calls for "urgent" consideration of new ideas to reduce global temperatures.

In an email to the Guardian he says: "Climate change is no longer something we can aim to do something about in a few decades’ time, and that we must not only urgently reduce CO2 emissions but must urgently examine other ways of slowing global warming, such as the various geoengineering ideas that have been put forward."

So, what does the Arctic actually look like now? Still higher than 2012

Of course, this was not the first time you made a fool of yourself, was it? At various times in the last few years, you have issued many predictions of ice free Arctics by 2013, and then 2015.

Even as recently as June this year, you were still forecasting:

“The Arctic is on track to be free of sea ice this year or next for the first time in more than 100,000 years”

Be honest. You are not actually very good at your job, are you?

SOURCE (See the original for links and graphics)


For more postings from me, see  DISSECTING LEFTISM, TONGUE-TIED, EDUCATION WATCH INTERNATIONAL, POLITICAL CORRECTNESS WATCH, FOOD & HEALTH SKEPTIC and AUSTRALIAN POLITICS. Home Pages are   here or   here or   here.  Email me (John Ray) here.  

Preserving the graphics:  Most graphics on this site are hotlinked from elsewhere.  But hotlinked graphics sometimes have only a short life -- as little as a week in some cases.  After that they no longer come up.  From January 2011 on, therefore, I have posted a monthly copy of everything on this blog to a separate site where I can host text and graphics together -- which should make the graphics available even if they are no longer coming up on this site.  See  here or here


1 comment:

opit said...

Illustrations can be a bitch - and posting elsewhere is only a partial solution. I have had DMCA blues for years. Chilling Effects seems to be working ( finally ) but I still have no luck identifying which photos, etc. are the cause of dissent. Happily, Blogger seems content with putting the post back to Draft status. That way, if your entries are for 1 item you should be good for a fix.