Monday, January 10, 2011

There is zero predictive skill in Warmism -- just hysterical assertions

See below


Romm: 0.7C Warming Causing Total Ecosystem Collapse

Yes. Less than one degree Celsius -- a change so small that you wouldn't even notice it yourself without instrumentation

Never mind that corals evolved during the Cambrian with temperatures 10C higher and CO2 levels 20X higher. Romm apparently has not heard of the new concepts - migration and adaptation.


The Warmists were still getting it wrong just one year ago

The report below is from Jan. 2010

Severe winter freezes, like the one gripping parts of Europe over the last few weeks, will become increasingly rare because of the warming effect of climate change, the UK's official forecaster said on Tuesday.

Europe's deep winter freeze, partly due to the El Nino weather phenomenon, has shocked parts of northwest Europe that usually escape the coldest winter temperatures, driving heating gas demand to records in Britain and disrupting supplies of the fuel when it was most needed.

The winter so far has been one of the coldest for nearly 30 years in Britain, but such icy weather was more common in centuries past and should become even rarer going forward.

"Winters like this are likely to become less of a feature as we head through the 21st century," John Hammond, a meteorologist at the UK Met Office said on Tuesday. "Colder winters become less likely because overall the background warming will reduce the severity of them, certainly for our part of the world."

The Met Office expects Britain's already relatively mild and damp, on average, winters to become increasingly warm and wet as a result of climate change, with the effect particularly pronounced in the latter part of the century.


This Map Is Impossible, according to the Warmists

So who are the deniers now?

Blue and purple indicate anomalously cold temperatures

The map above combines the NOAA temperature anomaly map with the UNISYS SST anomaly map. There is a lot of anomalously cold air and water right now. But we know this is impossible for the following reasons:

* Hansen tells us that the oceans have been gaining heat at an unprecedented rate for the last 50 years. This raises the humidity and amplifies the greenhouse effect.

* The Arctic has warmed 4-8 degrees. As a result, incursions of Arctic air are much warmer than they used to be.

* Arctic Sea ice is at the lowest level in a million years. This further amplifies Arctic warming.

* Snow cover has been declining for 40 years. This allows sunlight to warm the ground and further aggravate global warming.

* The Antarctic Peninsula is the fastest warming place on the planet, due to all the hot water in the Southern Oceans.
This leaves only two options.

You are imagining all the cold.

Climate science is defined by a spectacular disinformation campaign, needed to maintain the $2.5 billion in funding.

SOURCE (See the original for links)

Court Orders Secretive University to Surrender Global Warming Records

By John O'Sullivan

Skeptics of man-made global warming claim victory after legal battle sees a U.S. university forced to produce disputed "global warming" records.

The University of Virginia (U.Va.) had stalled since last year in handing over its record relating to accusations against a former academic employee implicated in the Climategate controversy of November 2009.

The researcher in the hot seat is global warming doomsayer, Professor Michael Mann who now works at Penn. State University. Mann, a Lead Author for the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been under increasing scrutiny since the climate fraud scandal hit the headlines over a year ago.

The latest story appears on the SPPI website which reports, “Court records reveal that counsel for the University has indicated instead that the Mann-related records do in fact exist, on a backup server. To avoid University delay or claims for huge search fees, today’s request specifically directs the school to search that server.”

According to Horner U.Va. has offered "a series of twists" on a novel defense of 'academic freedom.' It has spent half a million dollars on legal fees trying to prevent Virginia’s Attorney General, Ken Cuccinelli acquiring any access to the records. Cuccinelli filed his petition for access on behalf of the state’s taxpayers last year.

Horner writes, “Virginia's transparency statute FOIA gives the school one week to produce the documents, and offers no exemption for claims U.Va. is using to block Cuccinelli's inquiry.”

Of most interest to Cuccinelli will likely be Mann's emails that may provide the smoking gun to ignite a new storm on a par with that created after the email leaks from the University of East Anglia, England which was the hub of the Climategate scandal. British police recently announced they are stilll pursuing inquiries into alleged crimes that took place their in November 2009.

Mann worked as a researcher in the university's department of environmental sciences. He went on to be credited with creating the iconic ‘hockey stick’ graph that supposedly confirmed unprecedented human influence over Earth’s climate due to the omission of so-called ‘greenhouse gases.’ Both the man-made global warming and greenhouse gas theories are now claimed to have been refuted by independent scientists.

Horner asks his readers to contrast and compare how differently Uv.a treats such FOIA requests despite similar circumstances. He cites the case of environmentalist advocacy group, Greenpeace which in 2009, sought and obtained from Uv.a records of Patrick Michaels, who also formerly worked in the same university department. Uv.a showed no such reticence in promptly complying with the Greenpeace demand.


Warmist admits warming not problem for us now!

T. J. Blasing of Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center spoke to the League of Women Voters of Oak Ridge on Tuesday

Scientists have been warning us of this problem for years: The levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in Earth's atmosphere are increasing because of humans, and the planet is heating up due in large part to the increased gas levels.

Still, reports on global warming -- it's frequently referred to as climate change now -- bring out the skeptics. The skepticism often comes from special interest groups, such as the oil industry and electric utilities, or people with strong political opinions, said T.J. Blasing, a climatologist at Oak Ridge National Laboratory.

"This is a controversial issue," said Blasing, who has been a climate scientist for 40 years.

He said there is scientific consensus that greenhouse gases, which also include methane and nitrous oxide, are the primary cause of the global warming in the past century.

It looks like the warming will continue, with some interruptions due to other influences, such as oceanic influences, Blasing said. "So, we are a little bit concerned about this," he said.

Blasing, who has a doctorate in meteorology and a minor in statistics, said there are separate heating and cooling cycles -- or glacial cycles -- that last hundreds of thousands of years. But the present warming trend is compressed into a much shorter time period.

He said climate change discussions ought to be put into a larger social context that includes food, water, energy, petroleum, and economics. "We should consider all this stuff in the context of issues important to everybody, like food, water, etc.," Blasing said.

Global warming might not be too bad for a few years, but it will likely be a problem for our children and grandchildren, Blasing said. Some parts of the world could benefit, while others will be hurt. Experts predict that so-called grain belts in the United States and Europe will do well through 2050, Blasing said.

"It's probably going to hurt the poor more," he said. "It'll be the rich that come out ahead."


British electricity customers face huge bill for wind farms that don't work in the cold

The failure of Britain’s wind farms to produce electricity in the extreme cold will cost billions of pounds, create an economic crisis and lead to blackouts, leading industrialists have warned.

To cover up the ineffectiveness of wind farms the Government will be forced to build emergency back-up power plants, the cost of which will be paid by industry and consumers.

Jeremy Nicholson, director of the Energy Intensive Users Group, which represents major companies employing hundreds of thousands of workers in the steel, glass, pottery, paper and chemical industries, said the failure of wind power had profound implications. He was speaking after new figures showed that during the latest cold snap wind turbines produced less than two per cent of the nation’s electricity.

Now Mr Nicholson predicts that the Government will encourage power companies to build billions of pounds worth of standby power stations in case of further prolonged wind failures. And the cost of the standby generation will be paid for by industry and households through higher bills – which could double by 2020.

Industry regulator Ofgem has already calculated that the cost of achieving sustainable energy targets – set by Brussels but backed by the British Government – will amount to £200 billion, which will mean that annual household fuel bills will double to about £2,400 on average within the next ten years.

In the last quarter ending December 23, wind turbines produced on average 8.6 per cent of our electricity, but the moment the latest bad weather arrived with snow and freezing temperatures, this figure fell to as low as 1.8 per cent. The slack was immediately taken up by efficient, but dirty, coal-fired power stations and oil-fired plants.

‘What is so worrying is that these sort of figures are not a one off,’ said Mr Nicholson. ‘It was exactly the same last January and February when high pressure brought freezing cold temperatures, snow and no wind.’ In fact last year, the failure of wind power to produce electricity was even more profound. Then, over a few days, the lack of wind meant that only 0.2 per cent of a possible five per cent of the UK’s energy was generated by wind turbines.

So little energy was generated then that the National Grid, which is responsible for balancing supply and demand of energy in the UK, was forced to ask its biggest users – industry – to ration supplies.

What really concerns industrial users is that it is Government policy to put wind power at the centre of its efforts to ensure that 30 per cent of electricity is generated by renewable resources by 2020. This means that the number of turbines now running – 3,140 – will have to be massively increased to well over 6,000 in ten years time.

But this huge surge in wind farm activity will come at the same time as an EU Directive will insist that we close down our coal-fired and oil-fired power stations.

Mr Nicholson said: ‘We can cope at the moment because there is still not that much power generated from wind. But all this will change. What happens when we are dependent on wind turbines for 30 per cent of our power and there is suddenly a period when the wind does not blow and there is high demand? ‘We will be forced to switch off the gas and it could even lead to power cuts.’

The Government is aware of the dangers of relying on intermittent power sources and is working on plans to encourage energy companies through financial inducements to have stand-by generation. Mr Nicholson said: ‘At least the Government is aware of the problem, but it will cost billions to put these measures in place and we will have to pick up the tab.

A Department of Energy and Climate Change spokesman said: ‘Wind power provides a home-grown source of electricity that doesn’t produce carbon dioxide. ‘The electricity system always has more generating capacity available than the expected demand. By having a diverse energy mix, we can manage the fact that some technologies are intermittent.’

The National Grid is also aware of the problem and has set up a team to look at solving the problem of erratic energy supplies. One of the solutions being considered is changing demand at times of crisis. For example, setting up systems to stop electricity supplies to millions of fridges for an hour or so. This would be possible by having ‘smart’ meters and would save massive amounts of energy.



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