Tuesday, October 07, 2008


An email from Dr Muriel Newman, of the New Zealand Centre for Political Research [muriel@newman.co.nz]

You might be interested in a research paper by Professor Zbigniew Jaworowski "Sun Warms and Cools the Earth" that has been published by the New Zealand Centre for Political Research. You can read a summary of the points made in the paper here. A link to the comprehensive research paper can be found there as well.

Essentially Professor Jaworowski claims that some of the key scientific evidence on ice core data, that has been used by the IPCC to justify human causation of global warming, is wrong: "During the past 16 years I presented data demonstrating that polar ice does not fulfil the close-system criteria, essential for reconstruction of chemical composition of the ancient atmosphere. This had practically no effect on a worldwide acceptance of the false, ice core based, dogma on the human causation of the Modern Warm Period".

Furthermore, he has been outspoken on the political agenda that is driving global warming scaremongering, quoting a leading United Nations proponent:

"What if a small group of world leaders were to conclude that the principal risk to the Earth comes from the actions of rich countries? And if the world is to survive, those rich countries would have to sign an agreement reducing their impact on the environment. Will they do it? The group's conclusion is "no." The rich countries won't do it. They won't change. So, in order to save the planet, the group decides: Isn't the only hope for the planet that the industrialized civilizations collapse? Isn't it our responsibility to bring that about? This group of world leaders form a secret society to bring about an economic collapse."

Professor Jaworowski also points out, that contrary to what the global warming alarmists keep telling us, the climate is getting cooler. He explains that the sun, not humans, is the major driver of climate change and that the absence of normal sunspot activity could be signalling the start of a cycle of serious global cooling not warming: "Sun activity is reflected in the number of sunspots, which normally shows an 11-year periodicity. The unusually long low activity of Sun suggests that we may be entering a next Maunder Minimum, a period from 1645 to 1715, when almost no sunspots were visible. This was the coldest part of the Little Ice Age (1250-1900), when rivers in Europe and America were often frozen, and the Baltic Sea was crossed on ice by armies and travellers".


The slowing economy and financial crisis are testing Europe's goal of becoming a world leader in greenhouse gas reduction. Industry has seized on the slowdown to lobby for delayed or watered down regulations, arguing that directives set out by the European Commission earlier this year would force them to cut jobs or relocate factories outside the European Union.

Some politicians also acknowledge that the financial crisis could hinder efforts to forge international agreements on reducing emissions. "This crisis changes priorities," Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the German foreign minister, last week told a conference on transatlantic climate and energy cooperation in Berlin. "One cannot rule out that interest in protecting the climate will change because of such a crisis."

On Tuesday the European Parliament's environmental committee is to vote on measures at the heart of the EU's commitment to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 20 per cent by 2020. Among the proposals are plans to expand emissions trading, accelerate the development of carbon capture and storage and a measure that would ban the construction of power plants that emit more than 350 grams of carbon dioxide per kilowatt hour - essentially ruling out coal-fired plants.

The results of the vote, on what is dubbed "Super Tuesday," will form the basis for negotiations with the EU's 27 member states. With members of parliament facing re-election in the spring, it is seen as a last chance for Europe to pass meaningful climate legislation before an international summit to renegotiate the Kyoto treaty next year. "It is very important that the EU is ambitious because the EU will have to be a leader if we want to have an international deal that means something," said Delia Villagrasa, the EU climate project co-ordinator at the World Wildlife Fund.

However, the economic environment has deteriorated since the Commission first spelled out its climate change proposals in January. Just last week, France confirmed that it had fallen into recession and Spain reported that unemployment had surged past 11 per cent, while governments were forced to bail out banks amid a growing financial crisis.

More here


How many times in this election have you heard a "green" party leader -- say Elizabeth May, Stephane Dion or Jack Layton argue: It's time Canada followed Europe's example in fighting global warming?

But what "example" do they mean? It would be helpful if they would tell Canadians, whose votes they're seeking Oct. 14, about what's really going on in Europe with regard to attempts there to reduce carbon emissions.

For starters, how about referencing the article "A changed climate" in the Oct. 2 edition of The Economist? Among other things, it reveals:

- The 27-member European Union's proclamation of 18 months ago "to save the world from climate change" is in huge trouble, with many countries in danger of missing their Kyoto targets and soaring energy prices hammering their economies.

- German Chancellor Angela Merkel, once regarded as Europe's "green champion," "today ... sounds like a lobbyist for German business, listing the industries that must be shielded from the full costs of her (climate) package."

- Indeed, notes the Economist, "the heroic mood" of the EU last year is long gone while "almost every country has found reasons why the climate change promises may be impossible to meet in their current form."

Ireland wants special protection for its farming industry. Poland and several other former Soviet satellites are worried they may have to import natural gas from Russia to meet their EU targets, especially in light of Russia's war with Georgia.

Meanwhile, in the U.K., the Daily Mail reported Friday, skyrocketing energy prices and fears of increasing instability of supply have created a rapidly growing class of citizens (estimated at 3.5 million to 5.5 million households) living in "fuel poverty," meaning they spend more than 10% of their disposable income on household energy alone.

In light of all this, perhaps our leaders, whenever they talk in future about following Europe's lead in fighting global warming, should at least put out a warning to stop short of the cliff.



The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has stated that: Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations, mainly carbon dioxide. This conclusion is based on output from global climate computer models known as General Circulation Models (GCM).

David Douglass and John Christy, in a paper recently accepted for publication and already available on the internet, have come to a different conclusion. By considering observed, as opposed to modelled, temperature changes and at different latitude bands they conclude that:

1. El Nino and La Nina effects in the tropics have a more significant affect on global temperature anomalies than carbon dioxide, in particular it was an El Nino event that drove the 1998 global temperature maximum.

2. Variations in global temperatures since 1978 have mostly been due to climate effects in the northern hemisphere (northern extratropics) and these effects cannot be attributed to carbon dioxide.

3. Carbon dioxide has contributed a small amount to an increase in global temperatures but without what is commonly referred to as feed-back.

David Douglas and John Christy are practicing climate scientists from the Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Rochester, and Department of Atmospheric Science and Earth System Science Center, University of Alabama, respectively. Their paper entitled `Limits on CO2 Climate Forcing from Recent Temperature Data of Earth', was recently accepted for publication in Energy and Environment.

A regular at this blog, Cohenite, comments on the Douglass-Christy paper in a fairly technical note already posted at the community webpage of this blog, and entitled `Temperature Trends and Carbon Dioxide', suggests that there is no evidence for a contribution from carbon dioxide to global temperatures and that the role of the sun has been underestimated.

Source (See the original for links)

Greenie professor at UC-Berkeley endorses 'exaggeration and distortion'

Author and physicist Richard A. Muller chats with Grist;

My house is lit by compact fluorescent light bulbs. Let me just tell you, though: Suppose I drove an SUV and lit my house with the worst kind of light -- I could still be an environmentalist. Al Gore flies around in a jet plane -- absolutely fine with me. The important thing is not getting Al Gore out of his jet plane; the important thing is solving the world's problem. What we really need are policies around the world that address the problem, not feel-good measures. If [Al Gore] reaches more people and convinces the world that global warming is real, even if he does it through exaggeration and distortion -- which he does, but he's very effective at it -- then let him fly any plane he wants.


Proposed Warmist laws will cost a million Australian jobs

BIG business will put more pressure on the Rudd Government to delay its emissions trading scheme - predicting a million jobs may be lost if it goes ahead. The Australian Industry Group's formal response to the Government's green paper has recommended a "gentle start" to an emissions trading scheme, with low administration costs.

In a move that was likely to fuel Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull's assault on the Government's intention to start an ETS by 2010, the Ai Group warned that industries such as smelters, manufacturers and cement makers could be forced to move offshore. Its submission warned of dire consequences and comes just weeks after the Business Council of Australia predicted many businesses would go bankrupt and others would lose up to 63 per cent of their earnings under the proposed ETS.

"Ai Group believes the advantages of starting in 2010 are, as yet, ill-defined," the report said. "Ai Group's consultations suggest the benefits of taking an extra year to improve the design of the scheme could easily exceed the cost of delaying the start by a year. "Businesses accounting for well over 10 per cent of national production and around a million jobs will be affected by significant cost increases and will be at risk of carbon leakage (where companies move to countries without an ETS)." Ai Group also argued the Government shouldn't help motorists cope with rising petrol prices when an ETS started.

The Government has said it would cut the fuel excise for every cent it rose under an ETS. But the Ai Group has joined other critics who argued the burden should be shared across all sectors. "The proposal to reduce fuel excise ... should be withdrawn, and after providing appropriate additional funds for low-income households, the surplus funds should be channelled into more farsighted measures, including in support of abatement," it said.

It demanded the Government come clean about its ETS review and release the findings. The review has determined whether existing green incentives are complementary to an ETS or will cost consumers extra.

Climate Change Minister Penny Wong meanwhile warned Australia's $2.1 billion commercial fishing industry was at risk from climate change. Her warnings came after the CSIRO released a report which found prawns, mud crabs and barramundi in Queensland and the Northern Territory could be affected by changing rainfall patterns.



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