Thursday, March 20, 2008

Russian scientists disown global warming

The report in Russian English below was originally headed: "Global Warming to Serve Politicians". It refers only briefly to a Russian language website and appears to be a response to the Russian site. It would be nice to get a proper translation of the Russian site but I append the Babelfish translation below.

Babelfish translations always have their lighter moments and I like the way "Kyoto" is referred to as "Kiotskiy". Sounds fair to me! "Albert gor" sounds an improvement on Al Gore too! The Russian spokesman seems to be saying at one point that they are fortunate in Russia not to have the computing power which would enable them to waste their time on "models".

I rather agree with that. I have often noted that poor raw data is commonly associated with very complex statistics in published research reports in my own field. I have never been much persuaded by such reports. It's usually a case of putting lipstick on a pig -- with apologies to my providers of bacon.

I would be cautious of the word "officially" in the article below. Nothing is official in Russia until Vlad says so. But the great skepticism of Russian scientists in the matter is well-known. If it is confirmed that the Russian Academy of Sciences officially rejects the IPCC conclusions, it would be a real blow to the IPCC. Regardless of what is true of Russia's government, there is nothing wrong with Russia's scientists

Russian Academy of Sciences officially claims main reasons of global warming are totally different from that announced by UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Experts of IPCC's working group concluded that main reason of global climate warming was emission of various greenhouse gases. Such a conclusion was reported during a press-conference by one of the research supervisors, who based his words on numerous research results and mathematical modeling of climate changes.

IPCC's report describes in detail possible effects of climatic changes on environment, human beings and society and predicts further changes, as well as suggests some mitigation measures. The essence of suggested "therapy" is lowering greenhouse gases' emissions. IPCC experts calculated that as little as 0.5% of world GDP (Gross Domestic Product) would be enough for development and assimilation of technologies, allowing decrease of gaseous emissions in 2030 (reaching figures of 1990).

Experts claim reducing greenhouse gases' emissions is not very difficult: Russian emissions lost 37% compared to emissions of 1990. However, UN officials forget to mention that new technologies have nothing to do with such an abrupt emission drop - this effect was due to steep fall of total production and long-term economic stagnation. Some experts admit that developing countries, e.g. China and India, can develop their economy and at the same time reduce greenhouse gases' emissions only when receiving funds from abroad. IPCC's working group expresses confidence that energy-saving technologies allow Russian industry to put down the use of natural gas for 230 million cubic meters per year. As for funds for such technological breakthrough, experts suggest to withdraw them from housing and public utilities by canceling some state subsidies.

IPCC's experts emphasize that Kyoto Protocol promotes introduction of energy-saving technologies and development of alternative power engineering, however they fail to explain how fulfilling the protocol can reduce greenhouse gases' emissions, since only 161 countries, responsible for 61% of world emissions, ratified Kyoto Protocol as of February 2006. Other scientists claim this share of 61% would reduce due to rapid development of China, India and other countries, which do not participate in Kyoto Protocol.

UN experts commented nonconcurrence of their conclusions with point of view of researchers from Russian Academy of Sciences, who tend to think that main reasons of global warming lie in natural factors. IPCC's working group said they have done an enormous work on mathematical modeling, considering many climatic parameters, and Russian Academy of Sciences had neither computers, nor models to make right conclusions.

We would like to remind our readers that UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize 2007 together with former US vice-president Albert Gore "for their efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change".


Babelfish translation of the Russian language website follows:

Global warming on the service of the politicians

The conclusions about the basic reason for the global warming of climate, made an intergovernmental appraisal group for climate variation with THE UNITED NATIONS (MGEIK), do not coincide with the official position in this question of the Russian academy of sciences.

The experts of working group MGEIK (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - IPCC) came to the conclusion that the basic reason for global warming - emission of greenhouse gases. On this Igor bashmakov reported at the press conference in RIA- news one of the authors of report. According to him, this conclusion is based on the results of the studies, carry ouied by hundred scientific different countries of peace, and the analysis of the mathematical models of climate variation.

In the report, prepared BY MGEIK to 2007, are in detail described the possible consequences of climate variation - for nature, man and society as a whole, the forecast of its further change is made and measures for the softening of its consequences are proposed. Essence of these measures - reduction in the ejections of greenhouse gases. As it reported another author of the report Of kirsten Of khalsnes (Denmark), according to the calculations of group, it will be required only by 0,5% world VLADIMIR PUTIN for development and introducing the technologies, which make it possible to 2030 to attain reduction in the ejections to the level of 1990.

Igor bashmakov noted that stated problem of attaining not too it is difficult: "today in Russia the emission of greenhouse gases they decreased by 37% in comparison with 1990", he said. However, it did not refine that this decrease occurred not due to the introduction of new technologies, but due to sharp drop in the total volume of production in our country and prolonged economic stagnation. Kirsten Of khalsnes recognized that the developing countries, such as China and India, can develop their economy, simultaneously decreasing the ejections of greenhouse gases only with the condition of financing their economy because of the boundary.

Igor bashmakov expressed confidence that in Russia it is possible to reduce the consumption of natural gas on 230 million cu. m per year due to the energy-saving technologies. Where to take money for the introduction of these technologies, explained one additional author of report, the economist Aleksandr Novikov based on the example ZHKKH. In its opinion, this it would be possible to make due to the means, isolated today by state on the subsidy.

Igor bashmakov emphasized that to the introduction of energy-saving technologies and to the development of alternative power engineering contributes The kiotskiy protocol; however, I could not explain, as its fulfillment will make it possible to dostich' the stated goals on reduction in the emission of greenhouse gases, if one considers that as of on 14 February, 2006, the protocol was ratified by 161 country of peace, which are together critical approximately only for 61% of world-wide ejections. And this portion, apparently, will decrease, takeing into account the high rates of the development of such countries as China and India, which are not participants In the kiotskogo protocol.

"Kiotskiy protocol - this is the trial step, which will help us to understand that they can make several states, and such countries as China, they will pass to the energy-saving technologies and without The kiotskogo protocol", he said.

With it did not agree Kirsten Of khalsnes, which noted that The kiotskiy protocol "created many economic initiatives and allowed many countries to improve economic indices".

Relative to the noncoincidence of conclusions for the basic reason for global climate variation in the working group MGEIK and the scientific Russian academies of sciences, which consider that the present warming up bears natural nature, Igor bashmakov he said that "experts MGEIK they made many calculations they built the mathematical models, which consider many climatic parameters... in our academy of sciences there is neither such models nor such computers, on which them it was possible to cheat in counting".

Let us recall that the intergovernmental appraisal group for climate variation was honored the Nobel Peace Prize of 2007, which it subdivided with the former Vice President OF THE USA Albert gor. As said in the official communication of Nobel committee, so high award MGEIK it was honored "for the efforts and the work for the propagation of knowledge about climate variations and the adoption of measures for purposes of the suppression of the propagation of negative processes".


One estimate of the cost of the 18 new green taxes announced by Alistair Darling to save the planet was 3 billion pounds a year. But this is only the start of it. We already pay out 3 billion a year through our electricity bills, for the EU's Emissions Trading Scheme and the "renewables obligation", which obliges us to pay a 100 per cent subsidy to wind turbine companies for the derisory amount of electricity they produce (and all to save not a milligram of CO2 emissions, which continue to rise EU-wide almost as fast as our taxes).

This 6 billion may seem peanuts compared with Mr Darling's terrifying 43 billion budget deficit, but it still amounts to 255 for every household in the country.

Throw in such other items as airline taxes and those fatuous Home Information Packs (required by yet another EU directive aimed at global warming), and the price we are to pay for "fighting climate change" seems set to rise as exponentially as talk about CO2 emissions. It is just as well that the last two months have shown one of the sharpest drops in global temperatures ever recorded.

But if the warming panic does turn out to be no more than a colossal scare, what justification will Darling and Co find for hoicking our taxes still higher in the future - just as the global economy seems about to plunge into its deepest recession for 70 years?



An email from Jeremy Nicholson [], Director - Energy Intensive Users Group

Readers might be interested to see this consultant's report, comissioned by the UK government, which estimates the cost of attempting to meet the EU target for 20% of energy consumption to be met by renewables by 2020. Their conclusions are sobering:

"The Central Case least cost scenario estimates the efficient annual incremental cost of meeting the target in 2020 to be EUR18.8bn, with the lifetime cost of the policy (the 'lifetime costs') being EUR259bn."

"The incremental abatement cost in 2020 is EUR49/tCO2 and EUR82/tCO2 in the UK, with the incremental cost in the transport sector being an order of magnitude higher (EUR276/tCO2 for the EU and EUR259/tCO2)"


BRITAIN'S greenhouse gas emissions are 12% higher than claimed by Labour, according to an investigation by the National Audit Office (NAO). The report could undermine Gordon Brown's claims to be creating a low-carbon economy.

The NAO analysis, published this weekend, says Labour's figures exclude aviation, shipping, British businesses operating abroad and emissions caused by Britons holidaying overseas. This makes Britain's emission figures seem artificially low. It also warns taxpayers face a 5 billion pound bill from 2010 to 2020 because government failures in meeting greenhouse emissions reduction targets mean it will have to buy carbon credits from overseas.

The government has claimed that in 2005 Britain generated greenhouse gases equivalent to 656m tons of carbon dioxide (CO2). The NAO report suggests the real figure is closer to 733m tonnes. It also contradicts Labour's claims that CO2 emissions have fallen 6.4% since 1990.

This weekend Peter Ainsworth, the Conservative shadow environment secretary, accused the government of "Enron-style accounting" and said he would raise the issue during debates on the Climate Change Bill in parliament this week.

The NAO conducted the probe following concern over the way in which the government maintains two sets of accounts to measure changes in greenhouse gas emissions. The figures quoted publicly by Brown and other ministers are all drawn from the so-called Kyoto accounting system, allowing the government to claim the lower emissions figure. The term "equivalent" is used because the figure include CO2 plus five other greenhouse gases such as methane and nitrous oxide. They are all added together and expressed in terms of CO2 equivalents for the sake of convenience.

Since CO2 is the most important greenhouse gas, the government often focuses on it alone. The NAO report points out, however, that the Office for National Statistics (ONS) maintains its own environmental accounts which measure the same gases but use stricter Treasury accounting rules. The NAO report states: "For 2005 the environmental accounts reported total greenhouse gas emissions equivalent to 733m tonnes of CO2." Referring to CO2 alone, it added: "Our figures demonstrate that there have been no reductions in UK CO2 emissions if measured on the basis of the environmental accounts."

Dieter Helm, professor of energy policy at Oxford University, said: "It makes no sense to exclude shipping and aviation from the figures for Britain's emissions. They are vital parts of the British economy which are growing fast."

The NAO is particularly concerned about the government's decision to abandon targets for cutting domestic emissions and to rely instead on carbon credits purchased from overseas.

Last week the House of Lords passed an amendment to the Climate Change Bill to prevent the government using carbon credits to meet more than 30% of its carbon reduction targets. The government plans to reverse this amendment.


Rabbit fish key to saving Australia's Great Barrier Reef

What? We don't have to stop global warming after all?

A RAVENOUS weed-eating fish might be the key to saving large sections of the Great Barrier Reef from destruction, scientists say. Australian Research Council (ARC) Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies and James Cook University researcher Professor David Bellwood said new research had shown the herbivorous rabbit fish - capable of stripping an area of vegetation - could fight coral-stifling weeds. "When a coral reef is weakened or damaged through human activity such as climate change or pollution or by a natural disaster like a cyclone, the coral will usually recover provided it is not choked by fast-growing marine algae," Prof Bellwood said.

"The problem is that over the years we have fished down the populations of fish that normally feed on the young weed to such a degree that the weed is no longer kept in check - it can now smother the young corals and take over." He said the chances of coral re-establishing itself after such an event were small.

But in a video study in which different fish were observed grazing in overgrown areas of the reef, schools of rabbit fish (Siganus canaliculatus) were seen chomping away at 10 times the rate of other weed-eaters. "To our surprise and disappointment, the fish that usually mow the reef - parrot fish and surgeon fish - were of little help ... then, to our even greater surprise, a fish we had never seen in this area before was observed grazing on the weed," Prof Bellwood said. He said the brown, bland-looking fish had been overlooked in the past but could be an important protector of the reef.

But he said it was important other herbivores were protected so they could work alongside the rabbit fish. "In Australia these herbivore fish populations are still in fairly good shape, but around the world as the big predators are fished out, local fishermen are targeting the herbivores," he said. "In Hawaii, the Caribbean, Indonesia, Micronesia and French Polynesia there are reports of serious declines in herbivore numbers of up to 90 per cent. "By killing them, we may be unwittingly eliminating the very thing which enables coral reefs to bounce back from the sort of shocks which human activity exposes them to."



An email from Maggie Thauerskold []

You might want to take a look on my blog - The Climate Scam. A Swedish version of it (since I am Swedish) has existed for over a year, but I recently decided to go international. I would be very happy if you could forward this link.


For more postings from me, see TONGUE-TIED, EDUCATION WATCH INTERNATIONAL, POLITICAL CORRECTNESS WATCH, FOOD & HEALTH SKEPTIC, GUN WATCH, SOCIALIZED MEDICINE, AUSTRALIAN POLITICS, DISSECTING LEFTISM, IMMIGRATION WATCH INTERNATIONAL and EYE ON BRITAIN. My Home Pages are here or here or here. Email me (John Ray) here. For times when is playing up, there are mirrors of this site here and here.



colson said...

The format of this blog makes it really hard to differentiate between what you write and what you are quoting from other sources. It would be nice to see your thoughts using the full margin while quoted text using a narrower margin such as using the blockquote (indent) tag (button).

One suggestion, that I use and love is a little Firefox browser plugin called "ClipMarks" which allows you to quote up to 1000 characters and post it to your blog. It will link-back and ping the source for you. I'm not affiliated with clip-marks but you and I do a lot of heavy quoting and it serves me very well.

Otherwise, I like the blog.

Anonymous said...

That's actually a pretty cool fish. Unlike "global warming" the current MASSIVE increase in "invasive" species really is a big deal, since some beasts are meaner than others, so what do governments try to do? STOP IT. I say, OPEN the floodgates. Let's allow evolution to finally stop diddling around locally. As soon as house cats tool over much of Australia, it was open hunting season on them, right? Well, good luck on that one, since besides humans, cats are the *second* most adaptable species on earth, discounting microorganisms.

The point I'm really making (despite pointing out a flaw or two) is that species *want* to compete, meaning they want to evolve. Oh, how inconvenient for humans. How awful we are for letting our nastly little house cats go, or let vines take over Florida. It's OUR FAULT!!! Let's spend a gazillion dollars sending the Army Corps of Engineers out to kill, not malaria, but some fish that, oh wait, seems to save coral, due to a BUILT-IN flexibility of an ecosystem that has survived asteroids the size of texas.

My real reason for writing is to get you to note something I discovered today. A SOCIETY for "environmental journalist" talking points. I have not looked at it yet, except to note that it looks like a tacky union site for the scare mongers themselves, the real people who write real headlines based on junk science:

JR said...

I normally put my comments in Italics here