Green Republicans lead GOP losses

Green Republicans who have supported higher energy prices and opposed protecting property rights suffered major losses in House and Senate elections, according to an initial analysis by the Competitive Enterprise Institute. There were also setbacks for consumers and private property owners in the mid-term elections. The biggest loss was the defeat of Representative Richard Pombo (Calif.) of California, Chairman of the House Resources Committee. Pombo had been the number one target of several environmental political action committees in this election.

In the Senate, green Republicans Lincoln Chafee (R.I.) and Mike DeWine (Ohio) were sent packing by voters. In the House, notable green Republicans who were defeated include Representatives Charles Bass (N.H.), Jeb Bradley (N.H.), Nancy Johnson (Conn.), and Jim Leach (Iowa). The re-election race of another green Republican, Rep. Rob Simmons (Conn.), was still undecided as of Wednesday morning. “Although many green Republicans, such as Senator Chafee stressed their environmental records, it didn’t seem to do them much good,” said Myron Ebell, CEI Director of Energy and Global Warming Policy. “It is also worth noting that groups such as the League of Conservation Voters and the Sierra Club didn’t spend any money to support their Republican allies in Congress.

“Rep. Richard Pombo’s defeat was clearly the biggest loss for those of us who support protecting property rights, reforming the Endangered Species Act, and lowering energy prices by increasing domestic energy production,” Ebell continued. “Although the environmental and energy agenda will now be set by Democrats in the House, the ideological makeup of the House and the Senate on these issues has not changed as much as the magnitude of Republican losses would suggest,” said Ebell. “Green Republicans were replaced by green Democrats, while conservative Republicans were mostly replaced by moderate Democrats,” Ebell said. “This means, most notably, that the prospects for enacting global warming legislation in the next Congress have not been significantly increased.”

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MORE ATTEMPTED GREENIE CENSORSHIP

Nicolas Copernicus was condemned for suggesting that the sun, rather than the earth, was the center of our universe. The Catholic Church feared such knowledge could undermine the belief that Man was God's most important creation, and ultimately, undermine Church authority. Giordano Bruno was persecuted and ultimately burned at the stake for arguing that space extended beyond our solar system. Again, the Church feared such knowledge would undermine its teachings and authority.

William Harvey was ridiculed by leading medical authorities of his day for suggesting that the heart was the center of the body's circulatory system. His critics knew this would mean the liver had no role in blood production and feared that such knowledge could undermine accepted therapeutics of the era, including bloodletting. (After all, if the same blood re-circulated throughout the body, the old rules about the correct placement of leeches would no longer apply.) Copernicus, Bruno and Harvey were persecuted out of fear. Each ultimately was proven to be correct.

Today Senators Olympia Snowe and John Rockefeller IV are engaging in persecution of their own, attempting to silence dissenting voices. Just what do they fear? Perhaps they fear the solutions they prescribe will eventually be revealed to be the modern day equivalent of applying leeches.

On October 27, Senators John (Jay) Rockefeller IV and Olympia Snowe sent a letter to ExxonMobil Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Rex W. Tillerson demanding that the company cease funding for two dozen or so organizations and individuals they call a "small cadre of global climate change skeptics." Although it is unclear which organizations Snowe and Rockefeller are seeking to defund, one thing is clear: This is an attempt to muzzle groups and individuals with whom the Senators disagree. It is an attempt to stifle free speech and, as such, should be condemned by Americans of all political persuasions - both left and right.

The Senators' letter is fundamentally inconsistent with both the process of scientific method and rational public policy formulation. Scientific method isn't about winning popularity contests. It's also not about being with the majority opinion. It isn't supposed be determined by politics. It is about attempting to limit bias or prejudice in the results. Unfortunately, by attempting to cut off some of the funding for those who contribute to the diversity of both the scientific and public policy debate, Senators Snowe and Rockefeller are attempting to bias the results.

They will fail, however, because funding from energy companies is not what is fueling the vigorous climate change debate. What is fueling the debate is a genuine, sincere difference of opinion. People of integrity will not change their views because Senators Rockefeller and Snowe or anyone else demands it. People of integrity will not change their views because their funding is threatened - or even cut off. People of integrity will not change their views because it is asserted that the "scientific debate is over." They won't even do so when they are equated with holocaust deniers. People of integrity will only change their views when they are convinced by the evidence.

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2003 EUROPEAN HEAT WAVE NOT THAT EXCEPTIONAL AFTER ALL?

We have a new paper accepted in Geophysical Research Letters by T. N. Chase, K. Wolter, R.A. Pielke Sr., and Ichtiaque Rasool entitled "Was the 2003 European summer heat wave unusual in a global context?" This heat wave has been attributed to human caused global warming (e.g. see and see). Our paper finds that this conclusion is not supported by an assessment of the global climate data. The abstract reads,

"We place the European summer heat wave of 2003 in the context of other extreme temperature events since 1979 in terms of standard deviations (SD) exceeded and correlations between regional extremes and temperatures at larger spatial scales. As previously reported the heat wave was statistically unusual and was a deep tropospheric phenomenon. We find additionally that: 1) extreme warm and cold anomalies both occur regularly and occasionally exceed the magnitude of the 2003 warm anomaly. 2) There is a correlation between global and hemispheric average temperature and the presence of warm or cold regional anomalies of the same sign. 3) Natural variability in the form of El Nino and volcanic eruptions appear to be of much greater importance in causing extreme regional temperature anomalies than a simple upward trend in time. 4) Regression analyses do not support the idea that regional heat waves are increasing with time."

As we state in our conclusion, "We compared extreme tropospheric temperature events from 22oN to 80oN in JJA and globally using annual averages to the European summer heat wave of 2003 in terms of standard deviations exceeded and correlations between regional extremes and temperatures at larger spatial scales. As pointed out previously by Schaar et al. (2004) and Beniston (2004) the European warm anomaly during the summer of 2003 at 3.0 standard deviations was statistically unusual and was a deep tropospheric phenomenon....." However, we find that using the observed atmospheric data that, "Regression analyses do not provide strong support for the idea that regional heat or cold waves are significantly increasing or decreasing with time during the period considered here (1979-2003)."

We caveat our findings in that: "As with all analyses based on short time series, the above conclusions should be viewed with caution. However, our analysis does not support the contention that similar anomalies as seen in summer 2003 are unlikely to recur without invoking a non-stationary statistical regime (Schar et al., 2004; Beniston, 2004) with a higher average temperature and increased variability." The answer to our question, based on the time period that we had available to analyze, "was the 2003 European summer heat wave unusual in a global context?" is NO.

(From Roger Pielke)




EU carbon trade charade

More than 50 European economists and the Worldwide Fund for Nature have warned that European Union governments risk undermining the bloc's innovative emissions trading scheme by handing out too many permits to pollute. The trading system, under which industrial polluters can buy and sell emissions quotas, is supposed to be the cornerstone of the EU's efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions under the Kyoto Protocol.

But the credibility of the scheme, which is still in its infancy, has taken a beating recently because member states are allotting more licences to pollute than industrial plants need. "Our analysis shows that the allocations proposed at present are too lax, so they will not create adequate incentives either to cut back emissions or to fund investment that helps developing country emission reductions," said Cambridge University professor Michael Grubb.

The European Commission found most of the EU member states that have filed their allocation plans for the 2008-2012 period have again handed out more emissions quotas than polluters could use, as they did last year. The EU's executive arm has already taken the first step towards legal action against eight of the bloc's 25 members -- Austria, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Hungary, Italy, Portugal, Slovenia and Spain -- for ignoring the June deadline to submit their national allocation plans. The commission is due to rule on the national allocation plans later this month and could reject those it considers too lax. "The commission cannot allow the credibility of this crucial and innovative policy instrument to be undermined," EU Environment Commissioner Stavros Dimas said. "We will have to be tough in our assessment of the national plans."

And Worldwide Fund for Nature climate change expert Stephan Singer said: "It is vital that bad national allocation plans are rejected for the EU to maintain a high standing in the fight against climate change." A statement signed by the European economists and Mr Dimas said governments needed to respect the basic economic principle of scarcity of supply for the system to work. "Emission trading creates a price and therefore a cost to CO2 (carbon dioxide) emissions. When smartly constructed, this policy instrument provides clear incentives for changes in business practices and technology investments," the statement says. "However, fundamental to the functioning of ETS (emissions trading scheme) is for the market to deliver a meaningful price for carbon. "This requires scarcity in supply which must be presented by emissions caps set at a level that represents a significant departure from business-as-usual practices."

Climate change has recently climbed high on the international political agenda in the wake of a report from former World Bank chief economist Nicholas Stern warning of looming environmental catastrophe and a key UN climate conference in Nairobi. Even before that, the EU's trading system was under close scrutiny abroad. California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, for one, is interested in setting up a similar market in the US, along with a handful of east coast states. The US has refused to ratify the Kyoto Protocol, the UN treaty that requires the industrialised nations to curb their emissions of the gases blamed for global warming. The target is to bring national emissions down to about 5 per cent below their 1990 levels by a deadline of 2008-2012.

In Brussels for talks with Mr Dimas, Professor Stern said the success of the EU emissions trading scheme "will make it much easier over the near future to bring other countries like China and India into the carbon trade". The British economist insisted the smooth functioning of the emissions market would be vital in promoting new carbon-reducing technologies. "What the emission trading scheme does is to establish a price for carbon so there's an incentive for technologies that are low on carbon to come through," Professor Stern said. "That incentive is absolutely vital."

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AUSTRALIAN DROUGHT NOT UNUSUAL

The Murray-Darling basin is in the midst of a long-term drought similar to that experienced at Federation - not the worst in 1000 years. River and climate experts disagree with the one-in-1000-years call by South Australian Premier Mike Rann this week. Murray-Darling Basin Commission general manager David Dreverman told the water summit hosted by John Howard on Tuesday that the inflow into the Murray last month was so low as to be classed as a one-in-1000-year event.

National Climate Centre meteorologist Blair Trewin said the current drought was "in a similar ball park to the Federation drought" of 1895-1903. He said 2006, as an individual drought year, was the second-lowest year for rainfall in the basin. "One of the things that intrigues me is that by and large 1914 was a worse year for rainfall than 2006, but the inflows are lower this year," Dr Trewin said. The low inflows could be due to more farm dams, increased use of groundwater, tree plantations and even regeneration after bushfire.

Water Co-operative Research Centre chief executive Gary Jones said drought was part of the natural cycle of the river. "But this is a pretty big drought and we do have to expect there will be some die-offs," Professor Jones said. He said wetlands and billabongs were important drought refuges for native fish, plants and animals, and there would be severe consequences if, as the Prime Minister suggested at the summit, they were drained. "If it gets to the point where people are desperate for drinking water, of course we are going to give them the drinking water, but we have to understand the consequences," he said.

Droughts earlier this century regularly stopped the Murray River flowing, with current flows only sustained by modern management and a network of water storages. Murray-Darling Basin Commission water resources manager Andrew Close said if the Murray still had its natural flow, it would have probably stopped flowing this year, as it did in 1914, 1915 and 1923, while the Darling River dries up more frequently. "It stopped all three of those times in Swan Hill," he said. "It would have stopped in 82-83 and probably would have stopped this year." Between 1885 and 1960, the Darling River stopped flowing at Menindee 48 times. In 1902-03, during the Federation drought, it stopped flowing for 364 days.

The summit commissioned the CSIRO to look at the contentious issue of sustainable yield. Professor Jones personally believes two-thirds of the natural flow should be maintained. "Once you start to get below two-thirds, you are really getting significant stress, and at one-third you are into severe stress," he said. Under the current water allocations in the Murray, in an average year the river's mouth gets 27per cent of its natural flow. The mouth has only been kept open for the past five years by constant dredging. More than 90 major storages have been built along the Murray. They hold back water when it naturally flows in later winter and spring, and release it in summer and autumn when it is required by irrigators, and year-round for towns.

Basin commission chief executive Wendy Craik said the Murray had record low inflows this year. "The long-term average inflow into the Murray is about 11,200 gigalitres. The last decade, inflows have been averaging about 4500-5000GL. Our previous minimum-inflow year to date was 1000GL and this year, it has been 550GL." More than 4000GL are licensed for irrigation, but only half will have water this year.

A member of the Wentworth Group of concerned scientists, Peter Cullen, argues it could be a return to the 1900 to 1950s period "which was significantly drier than the 1950s to the 1990s". Professor Cullen said he preferred to call it a drying climate, rather than a drought. "As soon as you talk drought, they say it is going to break, and I think Australia has got to get used to using less water."

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Many people would like to be kind to others so Leftists exploit that with their nonsense about equality. Most people want a clean, green environment so Greenies exploit that by inventing all sorts of far-fetched threats to the environment. But for both, the real motive is to promote themselves as wiser and better than everyone else, truth regardless.

Global warming has taken the place of Communism as an absurdity that "liberals" will defend to the death regardless of the evidence showing its folly. Evidence never has mattered to real Leftists

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