A GOOD ONE FOR THE GREENIES

Antarctic disaster:

Certain moments stick in your head. Take, for example, the story of the Siberian ponies adrift on an Antarctic ice floe surrounded by killer whales. Something about the scene... lodged in the mind of Sidney Nolan, who painted a version of it when he returned from his own eight-day trip to Antarctica...

What had happened? Nolan explained it in a letter to Hal Missingham, director of the Art Gallery of NSW in Sydney.... "Once, five of the ponies, covered in green rugs, were lost on an ice floe which drifted out to sea surrounded by killer whales (these whales are beautiful, black with ivory breast and lethal to everything). (Henry) Bowers and his party, on the floe with the ponies, managed to save one of the ponies after some awful moments. The episode was witnessed from the shore by either Wilson or Scott (I have forgotten which) through field glasses and tears. Anyway, it is roughly this moment I have tried to paint."

You can see why the scene might have affected Nolan. For starters, it was horrible to contemplate; it would have affected anyone. But it also had a particular quality - surreal, deadly happenings in an extreme, implacable setting - that Nolan seemed to relish...

More here

The only pesky thing is that the above all happened in 1911




GREENIE PROTOCOLS CLASH WITH ONE-ANOTHER

Delegates at a U.N.-backed climate change conference have deferred a deal to allow new refrigerant plants in China and India to get lucrative funding under the Kyoto global warming pact, a U.N. official said. "China, Brazil, Argentina and the European Union could not reach agreement," the official said on Tuesday, adding the next conference in 2007 would take up the issue.

Existing refrigerant plants produce as a by-product the super greenhouse gas HFC 23, but under Kyoto carbon trading rules factory owners can sell lucrative carbon credits by destroying this gas. It was the extension of these rules to new plants that delegates at the 189-country climate change conference in Nairobi could not agree on. Kyoto sets rich countries limits on emissions of greenhouse gases, but allows them to meet these targets by funding cuts in developing countries, spawning a carbon trade worth $5 billion in the last 20 months.

The destruction of HFC 23 has been by far the most lucrative of such trades. For example, the World Bank pocketed some 25 million euros ($32 million) in management fees alone this summer for arranging two landmark HFC 23 deals in China, where factories pledged to destroy some 130 million tonnes of greenhouse gases in an 800 million euro deal.

The sticking point on a deal for new plants was that these factories also produce HCFC 22, a gas which damages the earth's ozone layer, something which a separate pact, the Montreal Protocol, is meant to stop. Some delegates believed that Kyoto should not effectively give factories incentives to produce HCFC 22 by funding HFC 23 destruction. "That goes against the Montreal Protocol," said the official.

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MILTON FRIEDMAN AND THE SCIENTIFIC CONSENSUS: A WARNING FROM HISTORY

My concern is with how "scientific consensus" is reached. In economics in the 1960's, there was a "scientific consensus," embedded in sophisticated macro-econometric models, that inflation reflected a competition over income shares, and that government policies to interfere with wage- and price-setting were the solution. Milton Friedman's contrary views were outside the "scientific consensus." By 1985 or so, the "scientific consensus" had shifted, in part because policies based on that consensus were tried in the 1970's, leading to the worst macroeconomic performance of the post-war period.

By the 1990's, large macro-econometric models had pretty much disappeared from the economics literature. The problem with macro-econometrics is that the models continually broke down out of sample. That is, a model estimated through 1969 would work terribly in predicting the early 1970's. A model estimated through 1975 would work terribly in predicting the late 1970's, and so on.

Milton Friedman's dissenting views of 1967 are close to the [global warming] consensus views today. I wish that climate-change models did not remind me so much of macro-econometric models. I wish that the contempt that the Left expresses for dissenting views in climate science did not remind me of the contempt that the Left expressed for Milton Friedman. And I wish that the debate over climate change were being waged over substance, rather than with type M arguments and on film. Movies are a propaganda medium, not an information medium.

I worry that the environmentalists are motivating themselves to stage a religious war over global warming. My guess is that mankind will not be well served by such a religious war.

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The Baptist and the Bootlegger: An unlikely coalition for climate control



The carbon traders, brokers, and consultants, the companies seeking wealth transfers, the climate bureaucrats, and last, but not least, environmental lobbyists are crawling all over the UN's Gigiri complex on the outskirts of Nairobi. Several years ago, Clemson University economist Bruce Yandle predicted that a classic Baptist and Bootlegger climate coalition would emerge in the wake of the Kyoto Protocol. And so it has. The idea of a Baptist and Bootlegger coalition is that both Baptists and Bootleggers support blue laws forbidding the sale of liquor. The Baptists favor blue laws because they are against sin and the Bootleggers because it creates a profitable market for them.

The central focus of 12th Conference of the Parties of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change is carbon markets and how to expand them. All of the sessions that I attended here featured at least some talk about carbon markets by prominent bureaucrats, industry lobbyists and the environmental lobbyists. And according to them, carbon markets will whiten your teeth and freshen your breath, put a sparkle in your eye, a spring in your step, slim you down and vastly improve your sex life. Or at least fatten their bottom lines by saving the planet.

One Green "Baptist," Matthias Duwe, from the Climate Action Network, explained his group's support for carbon markets by saying, "Environmental effectiveness is what counts. What we want is absolute reductions in emissions. Sending signals to business is secondary." In other words, they are against environmental sin and they think that carbon markets will help stamp out the sin of emitting noxious greenhouse gases. Right beside him on the panel sat an earnest climate Bootlegger, Kate Hampton, a policy advisor to a British merchant bank that has established the $1 billion Climate Change Capital fund that invests in carbon markets. She thinks there's plenty of money to be made if the politicians and bureaucrats set stringent limits on how much carbon companies can emit. Hampton aptly described the European Union's Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) as a "policy-driven market."

And that's a pretty good description. After all, carbon trading came into existence solely as a result of the Kyoto Protocol. Carbon markets are created by imposing a cap on the emissions of greenhouse gases that are believed to contribute to recent global warming then allocating permits for the amount that can be emitted. A carbon market was selected as a way to manage carbon emissions instead of carbon taxes which Duwe pointed out the EU discussed for ten years and it got nowhere with them.

Carbon markets allow governments to set actual limits on emissions and then let the private sector figure out the most cost-effective ways to reduce emissions. This is done at the cost of some volatility-the price for emissions permits can go up and down steeply and quite rapidly. Carbon taxes, on the other hand, offer the possibility of a stable price, but at the cost of flexibility in figuring out the cheapest ways to cut emissions. Another downside for global warming activists like Duwe is that taxes do not specify actual reductions.

Although a climate Baptist, Duwe does appreciate that a carbon market sends the signal to business that "every unit of carbon dioxide that goes out the window is a unit that could be sold." In other words, if a company can reduce its emissions below its allocation, it can make money by selling its remaining allocation to another company. Of course, a company can also make windfall profits if the government allocates it more permits for emissions than it actually needs.

So are carbon markets here to stay? Here in Nairobi, climate Baptists and Bootleggers and their bureaucratic facilitators constantly repeat the mantra that no matter what, the European Union will have a carbon market after the Kyoto Protocol comes to an end in 2012. Really and truly it will, it will! To a cynic they begin to sound like they are whistling past the graveyard. In fact, activists began distributing a T-shirt today emblazoned with the slogan "Mind the Gap." The "gap" they fear is the one that might open up between 2012 when the Kyoto Protocol ends and whatever other climate treaty follows. Carbon investors and traders could fall into the "gap" never to emerge again, that is, they could lose faith that governments mean seriously to impose carbon limits and stop putting up money to abate carbon emissions. The "gap" is what carbon market advocates call the continuity problem.

Hampton pointed out that what happens after Kyoto matters because if emitters-especially big power and industrial companies--don't believe that carbon will have a price in the future, they will not invest in long term expensive low carbon infrastructure. According to Hampton, Germany is slated to replace 20 percent of its energy infrastructure by 2012. Power generators will not choose more costly lower carbon technologies unless they think that it will save them money in the long run. Hampton says, "It really is policy and regulation that drive investment. The lack of a long term carbon signal undermines business's ability make rational decisions on investment."

All of the climate coalition members were eager to explain the precipitous drop in carbon prices in the ETS in May as growing pains. It turns out that most European governments allocated more emission permits than there were actual emissions. When the actual level of emissions was verified in May and it turned out that companies emitted 66 million tons of carbon less than allowed in 2005. This provoked, as they say, a correction of about 50 percent. Of course, both the climate Baptists and Bootleggers are keen to get climate bureaucrats to more strongly restrict the number of permits that are issued in the future. That would give the climate Baptists lower emissions they want and the climate Bootleggers the higher prices they crave. A win/win for everyone, except for perhaps the hapless consumers who have to pay more for the energy and products they buy.

If Europe does go it alone with its carbon market, Europe's manufacturers will argue that they can't compete with foreign companies that don't have to pay for their carbon. Already the European Commission has convened a High Level Group to consider imposing border taxes to level the playing field. Hampton warned, "What signal does this send--that carbon markets are so onerous that you have to build a fortress around yourself." Nevertheless, she did note that such countervailing CO2 import tariffs could be compatible with World Trade Organization rules. She pointed out that after the United States banned ozone depleting chemicals in the 1970s, it began imposing tariffs on such imports and no one objected that it violated free trade rules.

All of the participants on the UN conference side panels are impatient to get the United States to join the carbon market. However, the World Resource Institute's Jonathan Pershing said, "I don't think that there will be a common integrated market in the next commitment period." The next commitment period means between 2012 and 2020.

On the other hand, Hampton declared, "This is the decade in which we will find out if the world is capable of setting and reaching goals that will keep the rise in average temperatures below 2 degrees Celsius." And if that happens, the planet may benefit, but the climate Baptists and Bootleggers certainly will.

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Australia's sardine trains: How to get people out of their cars?

Almost 22,000 additional passengers a day are squeezing on to southeast Queensland Citytrains compared with four years ago. The burgeoning passenger numbers - the equivalent of almost eight million extra trips a year - comes despite the fact no extra train carriages have hit the tracks since 2001. Transport Minister Paul Lucas yesterday played down the increasingly crowded train services, saying the Government was well advanced with its plans to address booming demand. Mr Lucas said more than $500 million was being spent building an additional 44 three-car train sets which would be rolled out over the next three years.

He said from the initial 24 trains, eight would service the Gold Coast, three the Sunshine Coast while the remaining 13 would go into service across Brisbane. "The Beattie Government has invested massively in rolling stock on the Citytrain network," Mr Lucas said.

However, Coalition transport spokesman Vaughan Johnson said the extra trains were "too little, too late". "The Government knows the population has been exploding in the southeast corner," he said. "They should have been delivering between four and six three-car sets every year to meet demand."

Queensland Rail's annual report for 2005-06 reveals only four additional train carriages in total were added to the statewide network last financial year, taking the total rolling stock to 666. However, none of the extra trains was built for the Citytrain network. Two of the carriages went into service on the company's heritage excursions while the other two were added to Traveltrain services where passenger numbers are plummeting.

Queensland Rail figures show the Citytrain network had 144 three-car trains sets and eight four-car sets in 2001-02. In 2005-06, the only change has been the loss of one of the three-car sets to an accident several years ago. Over the same period, the number of Citytrain passenger trips increased from 45 million to 53 million following a jump in trip numbers of 4.5 million over the next 12 months.

However, Mr Lucas said the growth in Citytrain had not just come in peak times. "That growth in passenger trips has come from a number of sectors including free travel to and from major sporting events, new late night and early morning services, off-peak trips made easier through integrated ticketing under TransLink, as well as increased trips to and from work," Mr Lucas said.

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Many people would like to be kind to others so Leftists exploit that with their nonsense about equality. Most people want a clean, green environment so Greenies exploit that by inventing all sorts of far-fetched threats to the environment. But for both, the real motive is to promote themselves as wiser and better than everyone else, truth regardless.

Global warming has taken the place of Communism as an absurdity that "liberals" will defend to the death regardless of the evidence showing its folly. Evidence never has mattered to real Leftists

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