Some Scientists Admit Clouds Are Main Controller Of Climate
Modeling the main factors driving climate is riddled with and precluded by observational error. Some scientists now acknowledge this
Clouds are a main factor – even the most important factor – controlling changes in the Earth’s radiation budget, or climate (Sfîcă et al., 2021, Lenaerts et al., 2020), published by the International Journal of Climatology as shown below:
But as scientists acknowledge in a new study (Ademakinwa et al., 2024), substantial errors in calculating cloud effects on climate are inevitable because three-dimensional (3D, vertical and horizontal) cloud affects are reality, and current calculations only consider one-dimensional cloud properties (1D, vertical).
“Failed retrievals” in radiative property simulations of cloud effects occur over 40 percent of the time. This leads to biases, errors amounting to ±36 W/m².
Considering this error margin of 72 W/m² is 360 times larger than the (alleged – Ed) total forcing from CO2 over the span of 10 years (0.2 W/m²) for an imaginary clear-sky-only (cloudless) Earth (Feldman et al., 2015), it is not possible to detect the real-world effect of CO2 forcing in any radiative transfer calculation.
Summary:
“Since clouds in reality have three-dimensional (3D) structures, the simulation of radiative transfer (RT) in clouds should ideally consider the transport of radiation in both vertical and horizontal directions (referred to as ‘3D RT’).”
However, “operational bispectral cloud retrievals are almost exclusively based on the one-dimensional (1D) RT theory that considers only the vertical and ignores the net horizontal transport of radiation.”
Consequently, “the radiative properties of clouds under 3D RT are substantially different from those under 1D RT.”
https://principia-scientific.com/some-scientists-admit-clouds-are-main-controller-of-climate/
*******************************************Environmental Groups Seek to Shut Down Trans-Alaska Pipeline
Environmental activists have filed a legal petition with the federal government in hopes of shutting down the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System, which at its peak transported 25 percent of the oil produced in America.
The Trans-Alaska Pipeline “is approaching the end of its useful life due to mounting climate change-driven damages to both the aging pipeline infrastructure and the entire Arctic ecosystem, as well as the imperative for the United States to rapidly transition away from fossil fuel-based energy,” the petition states.
The coalition filing the petition includes the Center for Biological Diversity, Pacific Environment, Sovereign Iñupiat for a Living Arctic, Alaska Community Action on Toxics, Fairbanks Climate Action Coalition, and Public Employees for Environmental Responsibility. The petition was filed with Debra Haaland, Secretary of the U.S. Department of the Interior.
Stretching for 800 miles with a diameter of 48 inches, the Trans-Alaska Pipeline is among the world’s largest pipelines, delivering oil extracted in Alaska’s North Slope to Valdez, the northernmost ice-free port in North America. It was proposed after massive deposits of oil were discovered at Prudhoe Bay in 1968, and was completed in 1977 at a cost of $8 billion.
Today, the Trans-Alaska Pipeline is owned by a consortium of companies including BP, ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil, Unocal Pipeline Company, and Koch Alaska Pipeline Company.
Because of its size, the pipeline needed approval from the federal government granting it “right of way” through federal lands, which it received under the Trans-Alaska Pipeline Authorization Act, signed into law by President Richard Nixon in 1973.
The coalition of environmental groups now say the environmental analysis under which the pipeline was originally approved neither takes climate change issues into account nor does it “properly examine pipeline operations’ harm to caribou, polar bears, and other vulnerable wildlife and subsistence resources in Alaska,” Pacific Environment stated in a press release.
The group requested “the immediate initiation and completion of a new supplemental environmental impact statement” for the pipeline, adding that “because the only rational conclusion of that analysis will be a managed phasedown of the pipeline, drafting an updated Dismantlement, Removal, and Restoration plan should also promptly commence.”
Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy responded by calling the groups “anarchists” in a post on X, while saying their argument contains “glaring logical fallacies.”
Dan Kish, senior vice president of policy at the Institute for Energy Research and former chief of staff for the House of Representatives Resources Committee, said he expects the petition will be rejected by the Bureau of Land Management, the relevant authority within the Interior Department.
“There is a huge amount at stake, because if the pipeline gets closed, all of the energy on the North Slope of Alaska, and there’s enormous quantities of oil, gas, and coal, basically get cut off,” Mr. Kish told The Epoch Times.
But, he predicts the environmental coalition will take further action.
“When [the Bureau of Land Management] does reject it, they immediately go to court, and then they just go venue shopping for a federal judge. And there are plenty of them who would gladly shut this down,” he said.
‘Sue and Settle’
The efforts to shut down the Trans-Alaska Pipeline may proceed to a phase known as “sue and settle,” he said, in which plaintiffs bring suit against the federal government and the government reaches a settlement with plaintiffs, giving in to their demands.
“It’s one of the biggest loopholes around the Constitution that’s out there, where the government can have some friends sue them and then settle and give them what they wanted,” Mr. Kish said.
The Epoch Times reached out to the Department of Interior for a response to the petition, but the department declined to comment.
According to Alaska’s Department of Natural Resources, “Northern Alaska is a world-class petroleum province that includes some of the most prospective onshore regions remaining in North America. Despite this potential, the North Slope remains underexplored.”
While the pipeline at its peak moved more than 2 million barrels of oil per day in 1988, throughput fell to fewer than 500,000 barrels per day as of April 2024.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration reports that Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge likely holds 10.4 billion barrels of crude oil. In January 2021, however, the Biden administration issued an executive order to place a temporary moratorium on federal oil and natural gas leasing in the wildlife refuge.
According to Trans-Alaska Pipeline System owners, the pipeline spends $60 million annually and has dedicated 300 professionals to prevent oil spills through the the Ship Escort Response Vessel System, which escorts oil tankers through the Prince William Sound to the Gulf of Alaska. This includes response vessels if a tanker becomes distressed and pre-stationed oil spill-response equipment for rapid response, as well as personnel and equipment stationed along the pipeline to respond to issues.
In addition to the oil pipeline, there are also efforts to build a natural gas pipeline to transport trillions of cubic feet of natural gas from Alaska’s North Slope, and these efforts may also cease if the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System were to be shut down.
The Alaska Gasline Development Corp., a public corporation of the State of Alaska that seeks to develop Alaska’s infrastructure for natural gas distribution, estimates that the North Slope contains about 35 trillion cubic feet of proven natural gas reserves, but could contain more than 200 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, making it one of the largest natural gas reserves in the world.
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UK: Green candidate advocates ‘Climate Nuremberg’
The Greens like to portray themselves as the party of hope and change. But what exactly does that entail? An enlightening answer perhaps comes from Joe Taylor, the Green candidate for Battersea. In his zeal to save the planet, he advocates using legal action against those whom he holds responsible for climate change. But not just any ordinary legal action – Taylor has previously argued that ‘Conservative politicians’ have ‘already cast their die and booked their places at the climate Nuremberg.’ Quite the incendiary claim, given that the Nuremberg trials obviously concerned the atrocities committed by the Nazi regime before and during the Second World War…
Having previously tweeted about a ‘climate Nuremberg’, Taylor then allegedly made a similar claim at a hustings on Sunday night. When Mr S got in touch with Taylor to confirm that this was correct, he responded on Twitter/X with a 17-long tweet thread on the subject. He argued that ‘there are several groups who are using international criminal law to seek the prosecution of those who cause mass death, mass suffering and annihilation of low-lying states through climate destruction’ and that ‘It must surely be only a matter of time before some of them are successful.’ ‘What I said at the hustings,’ he added ‘is that we could also be talking about newspapers and magazines who have consistently lied about climate science.’
Cheery stuff – and, er, crucially not a denial of the claim that he specifically referenced Nuremberg at the aforementioned hustings. The Green party press office declined to tell Steerpike whether they supported Taylor’s comments but confirmed that they were investigating the matter. Is this the ‘real hope, real change’ that the party is promising on 4 July?
https://www.spectator.com.au/2024/06/green-candidate-advocates-climate-nuremberg/
*******************************************************Gas plant building boom to fuel renewable revolution, says energy grid chief
Craziness: Greenies don't like coal because it is a fossil fuel. But natural gas is a fossil fuel too! It's a theology that's beyond me. I don't agree that either are "fossil" fuels but that's what Greenies call hydrocarbons
The east coast of Australia will need 13 gigawatts of new gas fired electricity generation - the equivalent of building 26 new gas plants - within the next 25 years to back up the rollout of renewables.
The Australian Energy Market Operator’s (AEMO) finding that an extra 13 gigawatts would be needed was contained in its latest energy grid road map, released last week. It also warns that eastern Australia’s gas supply is running so low that emergency diesel fuel supplies would need to be built next to each new gas plant.
AEMO’s warning is a high stakes challenge to the Albanese government and Peter Dutton’s opposition given just one gas plant was completed in the past 10 years, with one more in development at Kurri Kurri in NSW.
With 10 months before the election, neither major party has detailed their plans to build crucial energy infrastructure or boost gas supplies.
AEMO said new gas powered capacity must be constructed between now and 2050 so the fuel source can continue to produce 5 per cent of the total energy mix in the grid. These plants will be needed in addition to a huge boost in batteries and pumped hydro.
The figure of 26 gas plants is extrapolated from AEMO’s report. Assuming that each plant can generate about 0.5 gigawatts, a total of 26 plants is needed to deliver 13 gigawatts of capacity – a tenfold increase on the current rate of construction given only gas plant to be built in the past decade.
The number of gas plants is a conservative figure, given the only plant built in the past 10 years, EnergyAustralia’s Tallawarra B gas plant, was 0.3 gigawatts.
AEMO’s Integrated System Plan found the “optimal development pathway” for the lowest-cost energy grid would be powered almost completely by renewables and backed with gas, batteries and pumped hydro.
The road map said gas would continue to play a small but crucial role. It will back up the vast bulk of renewable electricity under the Albanese government’s ambitious target to more than double the proportion of renewable electricity in the grid to 82 per cent by 2030.
Gas peaking plants can respond almost instantly when needed during periods of extreme demand or periods of low renewable generation, especially in winter when low wind and sunshine coincide with cold weather, and households switch their heaters on all at once.
However, AEMO is warning supplies of the fuel are running out – driven by dwindling reserves from Bass Strait fields, which have been the mainstay of the east coast gas market for decades.
AEMO said in March that the entire east coast gas market would be in annual deficit by 2028 unless new supplies are tapped, forecasting the supply gap to increase over time.
That is why AEMO said new gas plants should be built with onsite storage for extra diesel or hydrogen fuel to keep the turbines running if gas runs out – although it noted that hydrogen was likely to be too expensive in the coming decades.
“A typical gas generator may generate just 5 per cent of its annual potential, but will be critical when it runs. Most of that will be needed to support some winter days of low renewable energy output,” AEMO said.
A spokesperson for the Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen said the government was aiming to boost gas supply under its future gas strategy and that gas power would play a small but significant role in an energy grid dominated by renewables.
“AEMO estimates just 1.4 per cent of our 2050 demand will be met through flexible gas or hydrogen generation to support the transformation to reliable renewables that’s underway,” they said.
Former prime minister Scott Morrison’s “gas-fired recovery” policy vowed to open up new gas fields, including the Beetaloo Basin in the Northern Territory, but no new gas field was developed during that term of government.
Dutton must convince industry and voters he can reverse the record of the Morrison government, when four gigawatts of generation capacity left the grid and only one gigawatt was added.
Opposition energy spokesman Ted O’Brien has promised to release a gas policy before the election. He was contacted for comment.
Not everyone agrees that more gas is needed. Renewable and climate advocates argue that pumped hydro dams coupled with batteries can provide the storage needed to back up renewables, coupled with policies to reduce energy demand with increased energy efficiency.
“A national support program for home batteries will ease the power bill shocks in people’s homes, further stabilise the grid, and cut pollution,” the Smart Energy Council said last week.
‘No shortage’: Producers reject minister’s gas supply claim
Grattan Institute energy and climate policy expert Tony Wood said the government’s policy to encourage more renewables, known as the Capacity Investment Scheme, risked leaving the grid in a mess because gas was excluded.
Wood warned the opposition’s nuclear policy, a plan announced earlier this month to use public funds to build reactors on seven sites across the country, could leave the taxpayer on the hook for inefficient technology that private investors wouldn’t back.
“What we should be saying is we want to design a market with a reliable, low emissions mix and leave it to the market to solve the problem,” he said.
“But we seem to have got ourselves in a situation where the Labor government is arguing more for the private sector and the Coalition is arguing for the public sector investment. How weird is that?
“If the government’s going to decide what the mixture of technology is then we’re in a really bad place.”
The Albanese government approved last week Senex Energy’s long-delayed $1 billion Atlas project in Queensland’s Surat Basin gained federal environmental approval and is set to supply 60 petajoules a year from the end of 2025.
Renewables are driving coal plants out of business at a rapid rate with 90 per cent of the grid’s coal plants expected to be gone by 2035 and all of them shut by 2040. These plants currently supply 60 per cent of electricity.
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My other blogs. Main ones below
http://dissectleft.blogspot.com (DISSECTING LEFTISM )
http://edwatch.blogspot.com (EDUCATION WATCH)
http://pcwatch.blogspot.com (POLITICAL CORRECTNESS WATCH)
http://australian-politics.blogspot.com (AUSTRALIAN POLITICS)
http://snorphty.blogspot.com/ (TONGUE-TIED)
https://immigwatch.blogspot.com (IMMIGRATION WATCH)
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http://jonjayray.com/blogall.html More blogs
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Jim Hansen and his twin
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