Fewer hurricanes are hitting New England
With Hurricane Lee churning off the New England coast this past weekend; the mainstream media is now filled with articles claiming climate change will cause more hurricanes to strike New England. In reality, the objective data show New England is experiencing a dramatic and ongoing decline in hurricanes as the climate modestly warms. There is also no indication that the beneficial trend will reverse itself anytime in the foreseeable future.
The Associated Press, USA Today, and ABC News are among the many media entities exploiting the recent offshore storm to make alarmist New England hurricane claims. “Climate change could bring more monster storms like Hurricane Lee to New England,” reads the title of the Associated Press article. “Hurricanes almost never hit New England. That could change as the Earth gets hotter,” reads the USA Today title.
The media articles reference a 2021 paper in which the authors claim they devised a computer model that predicts a warming climate will bring more hurricanes to places like New England. The planet has been modestly warming since the end of the Little Ice Age approximately 150 years ago, so if the computer model is accurate, we should already be seeing a longstanding increase in the frequency of New England hurricanes. The objective data, however, show a dramatic decline in New England hurricanes.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) keeps meticulous data on hurricanes and hurricane strikes. On the NOAA webpage, “NOAA Historical Hurricane Tracks,” one can see the storm-by-storm path and strength of all U.S.-impacting hurricanes since 1851. One can also focus specifically on hurricanes that have struck New England.
Since 1851, 14 storms have struck or moved over New England at hurricane strength. From the 1850s through the 1950s, New England experienced an average of exactly one hurricane per decade. Since 1960, however, New England is experiencing just 0.65 hurricanes per decade. Moreover, it has now been 32 years and counting since the last New England hurricane, which is the second-longest period without a hurricane in New England history.
It’s not just that New England hurricane frequency is declining. The strength of New England hurricanes is declining, too. The hurricanes from the 1850s through the 1950s had an average maximum strength of 1.8 while over New England. The hurricanes since 1960 have had an average maximum strength of 1.6 while over New England.
Climate alarmists and their media allies try to indoctrinate the public to believe that warmer temperatures directly lead to more frequent and stronger hurricanes. However, many factors determine hurricane formation and strength. Wind shear, for example, rips hurricanes apart before they form and weakens hurricanes after hurricane formation. Scientists have long reported that warming global temperatures may increase wind shear, and that such an increase in wind shear may outweigh any impact of warmer temperatures on hurricanes. In New England, throughout the United States, and throughout the world as a whole, real-world evidence supports that theory.
Ultimately, real-world scientific data trump “expert’” speculation and faulty computer models. Rather than scaring the public into believing climate change is or will make New England hurricanes more frequent and deadlier, the media should report the welcome facts that New England hurricanes are becoming rarer and less deadly as the planet modestly warms.
https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2023/09/fewer_hurricanes_are_hitting_new_england_.html
******************************************************Wind power industry drifts off course
A perfect storm of supply chain delays, design flaws and higher costs in the offshore wind industry has put dozens of projects at risk of not being delivered in time for countries to meet climate goals, industry executives, investors and analysts said.
The race to reduce reliance on fossil fuels is putting pressure on manufacturers and supply chains to keep pace with demand for more clean energy, especially in the European Union which is finalising a legally binding goal to produce 42.5% of energy from renewables by 2030.
Up from 32% now, the new target would require 420 gigawatts (GW) of wind energy including 103 GW offshore, more than double current capacity of 205 GW of which just 17 GW is offshore, according to industry group WindEurope.
But so far this year, projects off Britain, the Netherlands and Norway have been delayed or shelved due to rising costs and supply chain constraints while Britain's renewable energy auction this month failed to attract any bids from offshore wind developers, also because of high industry costs.
"If this turns into a prolonged pause of projects then without a doubt a lot of the 2030 renewables goals will be under pressure," said Jon Wallace, an investment manager at Jupiter Asset Management.
Even before the EU agreed its new renewables target this year, companies including Orsted (ORSTED.CO), Shell (SHEL.L), Equinor (EQNR.OL), wind turbine manufacturer Siemens Gamesa and WindEurope had warned that the offshore wind industry was not big enough to deliver on climate targets.
Supply chain disruptions which started during the global pandemic have been exacerbated by the Ukraine war while higher shipping rates, raw material costs, interest rates and inflation have dented profits for some wind developers.
Markus Krebber, CEO of Germany's RWE (RWEG.DE), posted on LinkedIn that a combination of issues, all coming at time when the offshore industry was expected to expand quickly, called into question the achievement of climate protection goals.
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British PM sees popularity surge after watering down Net Zero targets
Rishi Sunak’s popularity among Tory members has surged in the wake of his watering down of net zero targets, a survey has found.
The Prime Minister’s satisfaction rating among the Conservative grassroots has risen out of negative territory to become the eighth-most popular member of Cabinet.
He had placed seventh from bottom last month, having sunk to his lowest approval rating among the membership since taking office.
Mr Sunak was polling at -3.8 ahead of Parliament returning from summer recess, but now sits at +25.8 points.
His popularity bounce comes after he announced a delay to a raft of net zero targets, including pushing back the ban on new petrol car sales to 2035.
He still remains behind Suella Braverman, the Home Secretary, Penny Mordaunt, the Commons leader, and James Cleverly, the Foreign Secretary. They have all remained in the top five Cabinet members for the party’s grassroots.
Kemi Badenoch, the Trade Secretary, came top of the ConservativeHome website’s Cabinet League Table for the second time in a month, leading with a net satisfaction score of +59 percentage points.
Sunak’s ‘brave new approach’ garners favour
The Prime Minister’s popularity had previously rebounded following the Conservative victory in Uxbridge in July, a by-election widely seen as a referendum on the expansion of the ultra-low emission zone (Ulez) to outer London.
Mr Sunak also watered down the ban on new oil boiler sales from 2026 to 2035 during his net zero speech last Wednesday, in which he promised a “brave new approach to politics”.
He also increased heat pump grants and promised not to introduce taxes to discourage meat eating or flying.
The latest Cabinet rankings come ahead of the Conservative Party Conference taking place this weekend, the first that Mr Sunak will attend as Prime Minister.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/09/29/rishi-sunak-net-zero-targets-delay-popularity-surge/
******************************************************UK: Marshals are brought in to police 'charge rage' rows between electric vehicle drivers at motorway power points
Marshals have been brought in to police 'charge rage' between drivers of electric vehicles at motorway services.
The boss of Britain's largest motorway services provider said long waits for plug-in points were making drivers 'very angry and stressed'.
Moto chief executive Ken McMeikan warned that the UK's motorway service stations are facing growing 'public disorder' due to a lack of grid connections preventing him from installing enough car chargers to meet surging demand.
He said angry drivers were confronting staff and each other, and warned of the growing risk of 'charge rage' on motorways.
Drivers in the United States have already been involved in heated disputes as they compete over a shortage of electrical points – dubbed 'charge rage' by US media.
A typical electric car will take at least half an hour to charge, compared to just minutes to fill up a petrol or diesel one. Electric vehicle (EV) drivers were forced to queue for up to six hours at some service stations across the UK last Christmas.
Moto has already introduced marshals at Exeter, Rugby and Wetherby to prevent conflict at busy times.
Mr McMeikan said he had told the Government of the problem and warned ministers that public disorder incidents would grow.
He told the Sunday Telegraph: 'I've been saying to them that the grid does not have sufficient capacity right now to deliver the power we need at the time we need it.
'If we don't get that amount of power guaranteed, then in coming years every Christmas, every Easter, every summer holiday and peak bank holiday will be the equivalent of when we have a fuel crisis on petrol and diesel.' Mr McMeikan said he had repeatedly told Jesse Norman, the minister for decarbonisation, that making EV motorists queue would put his staff and motorists at risk of 'charge rage'.
He added: 'There is a view in Government that, rather than provide the power to guarantee sufficient numbers of chargers, we should be thinking about how we manage queues.'
Last month, Toddington Harper, CEO at EV specialists GridServe, warned that rural areas could be 'left behind' in the transition to EVs, saying they may not see the same investment in charging bays as inner cities. Department for Transport data shows that remote areas have the fewest charging bays.
There are about 850,000 EVs on UK roads and two in ten of the new cars registered in August were EVs.
The Department for Transport said: 'Around 96 per cent of motorway service areas already have charging available. The Government has put more than £2 billion into the transition to electric vehicles, with the number of public charge points across the country increasing by 43 per cent since last year.'
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Jim Hansen and his twin
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