Friday, September 09, 2022

Earth barrelling towards multiple ‘irreversible’ climate tipping points under current warming rate, study says

What a joke! This analysis was not an analysis of any facts. It was a digest of previous Warmist articles. It found that previous articles from Warmists predicted various disasters. Anybody could have told them that without the need for an "analysis"

The Earth’s current warming rate due to greenhouse gas emissions could lead to the planet crossing several “irreversible” and “dangerous” climate tipping points by the 2030s, a new study warned.

The research, published on Friday in the journal Science in advance of a major conference at the University of Exeter, calls for limiting additional warming “as much as possible” as risks of irreversible damage to the planet increase with each tenth of a degree of further warming.

“Our new work provides compelling evidence that the world must radically accelerate decarbonising the economy to limit the risk of crossing climate tipping points,” Tim Lenton, director of the Global Systems Institute at the University of Exeter, said in a statement.

Climate tipping points, researchers say, are threshold conditions on the planet beyond which climate change becomes irreversible and “self-perpetuating.”

“These changes may lead to abrupt, irreversible, and dangerous impacts with serious implications for humanity,” scientists warned in the study.

In the new research, scientists conducted a comprehensive review of over 200 papers published since 2008, and developed an updated assessment of the most important climate tipping points, including their temperature thresholds, time scales, as well as impacts.

These include the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, widespread abrupt permafrost thaw, and massive die-off of tropical coral reefs.

The research found that 16 major systems involved in regulating the planet’s climate – so-called “tipping elements” – “have the potential” to cross tipping points where their changes can become self-sustaining and likely irreversible.

It suggested that even if the global temperature stopped rising, once the ice sheet, ocean, or rainforest passed a tipping point, it would carry on changing to a new state.

Five of the sixteen known tipping points may be triggered even at today’s temperatures, scientists say.

They say four of these move from “possible events” to “likely” at a global warming scenario of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and five more become possible around this level of heating.

“We can see signs of destabilisation already in parts of the West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, in permafrost regions, the Amazon rainforest, and potentially the Atlantic overturning circulation as well,” study lead author David Armstrong McKay from the University of Exeter says. “The world is already at risk of some tipping points. As global temperatures rise further, more tipping points become possible.” Dr McKay adds.

Limiting warming to well below 2°C and preferably 1.5°C, a goal that nations agreed to at the Paris Climate Agreement in 2015, is not enough to fully avoid dangerous climate change, scientists warn.

The new research finds that the risks of tipping point increase markedly in the ”Paris range” of 1.5-2°C warming, with even higher risks beyond 2°C.


Japan’s nuclear reactor’s may be restarting sooner than expected

Since Japan took its nuclear fleet offline following the 2011 earthquake and subsequent Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident, the country has experienced issues with the provision of adequate electricity supplies, especially at times of extreme heat or cold.

In March, the country experienced energy supply problems following an earthquake. At one point on March 22nd, the consumption rate in the country was 106 percent, meaning that demand had significantly outpaced supply. Nearly 3 million households in the country faced the threat of blackouts, and urgent measures were taken to curtail consumption as lights were dimmed and air conditioners turned down or off. Crisis was averted, but the scare and the litany of similar if more minor incidents that have occured in recent months and years have prompted the country to take a hard look at its energy infrastructure. It has been found wanting.

This has only been escalated by Japan’s sanctions on Russian coal. It hopes to sanction Russian oil and gas as well, but relied on the country for nearly 10 percent of its LNG last year.

In the wake of the assassination of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, and the reelection of his Liberal Democratic Party’s government, maintaining Fumio Kishida as Prime Minister, the country’s pro-nuclear party is looking at its old nuclear plants as a solution to the current power supply crisis.

In July, Prime Minister Kishida said during a press conference that, “For this winter, I have directed [Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Koichi Hagiuda] to proceed with the operation of up to nine nuclear reactors, which are equivalent to roughly 10% of Japan’s total electricity consumption volumes.” Japan currently has five operating reactors (ten have been restarted,” but only five were producing power at the time of his comments; that number has now risen to seven), so this promise would require bringing four additional reactors that were shuttered after Fukushima was brought back online.

Even more remarkably, on Wednesday Prime Minister Kishida announced that in addition to the restarting of formerly closed reactors, the country would look toward investing in next generation nuclear technology in order to meet its energy needs and meet its climate goals. If this occurred, it would be a major change in the country’s nuclear policy after more than a decade of post Fukushima nuclear skepticism.

Although there has certainly been opposition, the shift back toward a pro-nuclear public opinion in Japan has been caused in large part by rising electricity prices and tightening electricity supplies. As energy concerns mount, and energy conservation alerts abound, the public has become much more open to any available option to meet demand than they had been in the immediate wake of the accident.

Meeting energy demand is a problem across the world right now, as decades of poor energy policy and planning in Europe and Asia as well as the United States are beginning to come to a head. When it comes to how countries react to these policy failures though, there is significant variation.

Germany is resisting keeping nuclear plants running, preferring to reopen mothballed coal plants despite a serious need for every spare megawatt of capacity that the country has, while France is reaping the rewards of chronic underinvestment in its heretofore reliable nuclear fleet, and everyone is feeling the supply pressures resulting from geopolitical uncertainty regarding Russian gas.

Within this landscape, the moves that countries take now to secure their grids will have important implications for both the heatwaves that come next, and the upcoming winter. As such, it’s good to see Japan take another step back toward utilizing its nuclear fleet. ?


Green and Woke California Forced to Activate 4 Gas Generators for the First Time as Electric Grid Suffers Major Meltdown

With California’s energy grid unable to meet demand, four emergency gas-powered generators have been called on to ease the strain on the state’s power grid.

California is facing a heat wave with triple-digit temperatures breaking records, according to CBS, which noted Livermore — in the Golden State’s Alameda County — set a new record Monday at 116 degrees.

“We have now entered the most intense phase of this heat wave,” said Elliot Mainzer, president and chief executive of the California Independent System Operator, according to The Sacramento Bee. “The potential for rotating outages has increased significantly.”

He added that the grid faced “energy deficits of 2,000 to 4,000 megawatts, which is as much as 10 percent of normal electricity demand.”

To avert that, the California Independent System Operator on Monday called on the Department of Water Resources to activate four emergency generators, according to KMPH-TV. The generators were installed in 2021, two each in the Sacramento-area cities of Roseville and Yuba City.

The generators can provide up to 120 megawatts of power through natural gas. That’s enough to power about 120,000 homes, according to a Department of Water Resources news release.

The situation facing California was described by The Sacramento Bee this way: “California’s increasing reliance on solar power and other renewable sources has made the grid susceptible to blackouts in the early evening, when solar panels go dark but the weather stays hot.”

“We are on razor-thin margins,” said Siva Gunda, vice chairman of the California Energy Commission, according to the Bee.

On Monday, the California Independent System Operator, which manages the state’s electricity flow, put out a statement in which Mainzer said demand reduction was essential.

“We need a reduction in energy use that is two or three times greater than what we’ve seen so far as this historic heat wave continues to intensify,” he said.

Jack Brouwer, a professor of mechanical and aerospace engineering at the University of California at Irvine, told CBS in late August that the state’s energy infrastructure grid cannot provide what is being expected of it.

“The grid does not currently have the capability to add millions of battery electric or even fuel-cell electric vehicles today,” he said, according to CBS.

Ram Rajagopal, an associate professor of civil and environmental engineering at Stanford University, has said the strain EVs will place on the power grid will be devastating.

“Let’s say we were to have a substantial number of [electric] vehicles charging at home as everybody dreams,” he said, according to a Yahoo report in May. “Today’s grid may not be able to support it. It all boils down to: Are you charging during the time solar power is on?”

Rajagopal led a study that showed that peak charging demand could more than double by 2030 if EV owners charge vehicles after work at their homes.


Dutch city bans adverts for holiday flights amid climate crisis

A Dutch city has announced it will ban advertising for holiday flights as part of a range of measures to tackle the climate crisis.

Haarlem will be the second city in the world after Amsterdam to impose such a ban.

The city in the northwest of the Netherlands will enforce the prohibition on adverts for air travel, fossil fuels, and non-electric cars from 2024.

It will also be the first city in the world to ban adverts for meat.

When the ban is enacted, Haarlem’s population of about 160,000 will no longer see adverts for fossil fuel-related products and services, or meat, on public buses, shelters and screens.

The ban is delayed until 2024 due to existing contracts with companies that sell the aforementioned products.

Haarlem seeks to follow in the footsteps of the neighbouring Dutch capital of Amsterdam – which last year was the first city in the world to ban adverts for recreational air travel and fossil fuels.

Ziggy Klazes, a councillor from the GroenLinks (‘Green Left’) party, drafted the motion banning adverts for meat in Haarlem.

She reportedly told the Haarlem105 radio channel: “We are not about what people are baking and roasting in their own kitchen.

“If people wanted to continue eating meat, fine ... We can’t tell people there’s a climate crisis and encourage them to buy products that are part of the cause.

“Of course, there are a lot of people who find the decision outrageous and patronising, but there are also a lot of people who think it’s fine.”

Critics of the ban have argued that it restricts the freedom of expression.

Sander van den Raadt, leader of the conservative-liberal Trots Haarlem group, said: “It’s remarkable that the municipality of Haarlem is holding a large poster campaign that you can be yourself in Haarlem and love whoever you want, but if you like meat instead of soft grass, ‘the patronising brigade’ will come and tell you that you are completely wrong.”




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