Friday, February 08, 2019

British Met Office: global warming could exceed 1.5C within five years

A 5 year forecast!  I thought they had given up on medium term forecasts after they got so many wrong. That was after they forecast a "BBQ summer", only to have it rain like Billy-O the whole time

Lowest Paris agreement target may temporarily be surpassed for first time between now and 2023

Global warming could temporarily hit 1.5C above pre-industrial levels for the first time between now and 2023, according to a long-term forecast by the Met Office.

Meteorologists said there was a 10% chance of a year in which the average temperature rise exceeds 1.5C, which is the lowest of the two Paris agreement targets set for the end of the century.

Until now, the hottest year on record was 2016, when the planet warmed 1.11C above pre-industrial levels, but the long-term trend is upward.

Man-made greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are adding 0.2C of warming each decade but the incline of temperature charts is jagged due to natural variation: hotter El Niño years zig above the average, while cooler La Ninã years zag below.

In the five-year forecast released on Wednesday, the Met Office highlights the first possibility of a natural El Niño combining with global warming to exceed the 1.5C mark.

Dr Doug Smith, Met Office research fellow, said: “A run of temperatures of 1C or above would increase the risk of a temporary excursion above the threshold of 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. Predictions now suggest around a 10% chance of at least one year between 2019 and 2023 temporarily exceeding 1.5C.”

Climatologists stressed this did not mean the world had broken the Paris agreement 80 years ahead of schedule because international temperature targets are based on 30-year averages.


2018 Was the Fourth-Hottest Year on Record

They somehow manage below to spin a steady DECLINE in temperature as confirming global warming.  Clearly, no evidence will count against their theory

This story was originally published by The Guardian and is reproduced here as part of the Climate Desk collaboration.

Global temperatures in 2018 were the fourth warmest on record, U.S. government scientists have confirmed, adding to a stretch of five years that are now collectively the hottest period since modern measurements began.

The world in 2018 was 1.5 degrees Fahrenheit (0.83 degrees Celsius) warmer than the average set between 1951 and 1980, said NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). This means 2018’s average global temperatures were the fourth warmest since 1880, placing it behind 2016, 2017, and 2015.


Head Of International Ski Federation is a skeptic

From an interview with Gian Franco-Kasper

"And then there is the so-called climate change.


There is no proof. We have snow, sometimes very much.

Also, because it gets warmer and snowing in places where it used to be too cool.

I was at Olympia in Pyeongchang, at the beginning it was minus 35 degrees. To anyone shivering toward me, I said: Welcome to the global warming.

No one has been freezing in Adelboden for a long time. There have always been cold and warmer winters.

Do you claim that it is not true that the temperature has been rising globally in the last 100 years?

It got colder every year in the 60s and 70s. But I believe in global warming, of course.

We hear that irony again.

It's like the bark beetle. If it were up to the media and public opinion, we should not have any forests left. 20 years ago, the bark beetle raged, it could no longer stand a tree.

Are you a friend of Trump?

Not at all, but a friend of scientists and green activists, who are looking for a bark beetle by all means and just can not find it"


White House officials join event mocking climate change science, renewable power

A report from the CBC, no less

Pumping carbon dioxide into the air makes the planet greener; the United Nations puts out fake science about climate change to control the global energy market; and wind and solar energy are simply "dumb."

These are among the messages that flowed from the America First Energy Conference in New Orleans this week, hosted by some of the country's most vocal climate change doubters and attended by a handful of Trump administration officials.

The second annual conference, organized by the conservative think tank the Heartland Institute, pulled together speakers from JunkScience, the Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow, and the Center For Industrial Progress, along with officials from the U.S. Department of Interior and the White House.

Panels at the event included: Carbon Taxes, Cap & Trade and Other Bad Ideas; Fiduciary Malpractice: The Sustainable Investment Movement; and Why CO2 Emissions Are Not Creating A Climate Crisis.

Ex-EPA chief Scott Pruitt attended 2017 event

The day-long conference reflected the political rise of global warming skeptics in Donald Trump's America that is occurring despite mounting scientific evidence, including from U.S. government agencies, that burning oil, coal, and natural gas is heating the planet and leading to drought, floods, wildfires and more frequent powerful storms.

A similar conference blasting the link between fossil fuels and climate change last year drew then-Environmental Protection Agency chief Scott Pruitt, who was appointed by Trump to reverse Obama-era climate initiatives and roll back regulation hindering drillers and miners but who has since resigned in a flurry of ethical controversies.

The U.S. officials who joined this year included White House special assistant Brooke Rollins, Interior Department Assistant Secretary Joe Balash, and Jason Funes, an assistant in the office of external affairs at Interior. They praised the administration's moves to clear the way for oil industry activity and steered clear of commenting on climate change.

But their presence gave climate change doubters at the conference a boost.

"It's a step in the right direction," said self-described climate change doubter Roy Spencer, a principal research scientist at the University of Alabama, referring to the U.S. officials in attendance.

Sea level rise claims 'overblown': Heartland Institute
In an email, Interior Department spokeswoman Heather Swift said department officials "speak at thousands of conferences every year and share ideas with a diverse group of individuals." A White House spokesperson did not immediately comment.

Tim Huelskamp, president and CEO of the Heartland Institute, said the views presented at the conference "once on the fringes of U.S. politics" would be proven right.

"The leftist claims about sea level rise are overblown, overstated or frankly just wrong," he said in an interview.​ Huelskamp dismissed United Nations findings on climate change as "fake science" motivated by a desire for "power and control."

"It's a nice world they live in," said Steve Cochran, campaign director of Restore the Mississippi River Delta, an  environmental consortium involved in coastal restoration programs, referring to the attendees of the America First Energy Conference. "It's not the world we live in."

In the conference exhibit hall, the words "Coming Soon!" in big orange letters framed a Heartland Institute advertisement for the fifth volume in its "Climate Change Reconsidered" series. Attendees also passed around a book titled Dumb Energy: A Rant Against Wind and Solar Energy.

The more than 40 speakers praised Trump for withdrawing from the Paris climate accords, a global agreement to fight climate change mainly by cutting carbon emissions; and for rolling back regulations to allow oil companies to lead the biggest energy surge in the nation's history.

But they warned that proponents of the U.S. oil and gas boom are still locked in an epic struggle with climate activists in  academia and within federal agencies.

"The deep state is real," said Congressman Clay Higgins, a Louisiana Republican, addressing the conference. "They're  certainly anti-fossil fuel."

Funes of the Interior Department spoke on a panel called The Future of Coal, Oil, and Natural Gas, alongside Joe  Leimkuhler, vice president of drilling at LLOG Exploration Co. and Fred Palmer, who joined Heartland in 2016 after retiring from coal company Peabody Energy.

"Oil production under President Trump has increased two million barrels per day since the beginning of his administration," Funes said. "The U.S. is exporting four times as much oil as it exported a decade ago."


AOC Goes Off The Deep End, Offers INSANE Ideas To Save Planet; ‘Eat Peanut Butter, Skip…’

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has gone off the deep end with “ideas” to “save” the planet. The New York lawmaker took to Twitter on Tuesday to highlight a trip she made to Queens, New York, earlier this week to visit with teenagers.

The 29-year-old socialist said she informed the group that switching razors, replacing meat and dairy meals once a day, and eating peanut butter was the key to addressing climate change.

“Yesterday I visited a school assembly w/ teens in Queens. One of them asked, “What can WE do to combat climate change?” 2 recs: – Skip disposable razors+switch to safety razors – Give your tummy a break! Skip meat/dairy for a meal (easiest is bfast, I do banana & peanut butter),” Ocasio-Cortez wrote.

She added in a follow-up tweet: “My other tips: – Start incorporating thrift, consignment & second-hand clothes in your wardrobe (host a clothing swap w/ friends for a no-spend option) – Walk, bike, & use public transit more often – Bring your own bag/coffee mug. It’s okay if you forget, 1x/week is still a win.”

Ocasio-Cortez’s “tips” for addressing climate change is part of her socialist “Green New Deal,” which will cost trillions of dollars and require the U.S. to completely get off fossil fuels within 10 years.

A new study reveals the price tag for Ocasio-Cortez’s “Green New Deal” and it’s absolutely mind-boggling. The 29-year-old New York socialist has promised that her plan will provide “free” healthcare, education, and even jobs. However, taxpayers will be stuck footing the bill, which comes out to $7 trillion.

Her plan also calls for a guarantee that every American will “get” a job, pledging to “provide all members of our society, across all regions and all communities, the opportunity, training and education to be a full and equal participant in the transition, including through a job guarantee program to assure a living wage job to every person who wants one.”

A recent study from PJ Media found that the estimated $7 trillion projected cost is painfully low, and that it could actually cost nearly $50 trillion, which would be roughly seven — SEVEN — times more than that.

According to an eye-popping PJ Media analysis based on a new report from Power the Future, the “Green New Deal” proposed by democratic socialist Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) would cost more than 8,000 times as much as President Donald Trump’s border wall.

All that “free” stuff Ocasio-Cortez keeps promising sure is expensive.



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