Wednesday, October 17, 2018

Climatologist: Florida’s Major Hurricane Hits – No Change In 118 Years

Roy Spencer

I’ve updated a plot of Florida major hurricane strikes since 1900 with Hurricane Michael, and the result is that there is still no trend in either intensity or frequency of strikes over the last 118 years:

This is based upon National Hurricane Center data. The trend line in intensity is flat, and the trend line in the number of storms (not shown) is insignificantly downward.

Nevertheless, the usual fearmongers are claiming Hurricane Michael is somehow tied to climate change.

After all, the Gulf of Mexico is unusually warm, right?

Yes, but if you look at the history of Jul-Aug-Sept average sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the eastern Gulf (available here, 25N-30N, 80W-90W), you will see that since 1860, this summer is only the 9th warmest in the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Even more astounding is that out of the top 10 warmest Gulf years since 1860, 7 occurred before 1970, which is before we experienced any significant warming.

So, all the “experts” can do is make vague claims about how major hurricanes like Michael are what we can expect more of in a warming world, but the data show that – so far at least – the data do not support the theory.

Major hurricanes are part of nature. As evidence of this, I will also remind people of the study of lake bottom sediments in Western Lake in the Florida panhandle, not far from where Michael made landfall.

It showed the last 1,000 years have been relatively quiet for Category 4 to 5 hurricanes, but the period from 1,000 to 3,400 years ago was a “hyperactive” period for intense landfalls at that location.

Hurricane strikes in the U.S. are notoriously variable, as evidenced by the recent (and unprecedented) 11+ year “drought” in major hurricane landfalls, which was finally broken in 2017.

Where were the claims that the hurricane drought was due to global warming?


Attributing the latest hurricane in any way to global warming is the ultimate in cherry-picking the data. In fact, they don’t even show the data.

I also included Michael in the count of ALL U.S. landfalling major hurricanes, again from NHC data. The marked downward trend since the 1930s, 40s, and 50s is quite evident:

Where is the news story about THAT? More crickets.


The BBC on meat

The elite are really coming after us normal folks.  Enjoy that T-bone while you can!

Just a week after scientists said huge cuts in carbon emissions were needed to protect the climate, a UK minister has shown just how hard that will be.

Scientists say we ought to eat much less meat because the meat industry causes so many carbon emissions.

But the climate minister Claire Perry has told BBC News it is not the government's job to advise people on a climate-friendly diet.  She would not even say whether she herself would eat less meat.

Ms Perry has been accused by Friends of the Earth of a dereliction of duty. They say ministers must show leadership on this difficult issue.

But the minister - who is personally convinced about the need to tackle climate change - is anxious to avoid accusations of finger-wagging. She said: "I like lots of local meat. I don't think we should be in the business of prescribing to people how they should run their diets."

When asked whether the Cabinet should set an example by eating less beef (which has most climate impact), she said: "I think you're describing the worst sort of Nanny State ever. "Who would I be to sit there advising people in the country coming home after a hard day of work to not have steak and chips?… Please…"

Ms Perry refused even to say whether she agreed with scientists' conclusions that meat consumption needed to fall.

A dereliction of duty?

Craig Bennett from Friends of the Earth responded: "The evidence is now very clear that eating less meat could be one of the quickest ways to reduce climate pollution.

"Reducing meat consumption will also be good for people's health and will free up agricultural land to make space for nature.

"It's a complete no-brainer, and it's a dereliction of duty for government to leave the job of persuading people to eat less meat to the green groups."

He said the government could launch information campaigns, change diets in schools and hospitals, or offer financial incentives.

Ms Perry said: "What I do think we need to do is look at the whole issue of agricultural emissions and do a lot more tree planting.

"But if you and I eat less meat, with all the flatulent sheep in Switzerland and flatulent cows in the Netherlands - that will just be wiped out in a moment. Let's work on the technology to solve these problems at scale."

She said instead of cutting down on meat, we could use (hugely expensive) equipment that sucks CO2 out of the atmosphere.

Supper with the Perry family

Ms Perry said later that her own typical family meal is not steak and chips, but a stir-fry, which brings the taste and texture of meat into a dish dominated by vegetables. But she did not want to say this on camera.

She agreed it was appropriate for the government to advise people on healthy diets because the obesity epidemic is costing taxpayers more in health bills, but implied that this principle did not apply when considering the health of the planet.

Her fear of being condemned in the media as a bossy politician highlights the difficulty of the next phase of climate change reductions.

Until now, 75% of CO2 reductions in the UK have come from cleaning up the electricity sector. Many people have barely noticed the change.

Will the climate battle get personal?

Experts generally agree that for healthy lives and a healthy planet, the battle over climate change will have to get personal.

That could mean people driving smaller cars, walking and cycling more, flying less, buying less fast fashion, wearing a sweater in winter… and eating less meat.

People will still live good lives, they say, but they'll have to make a cultural shift.

If governments do not feel able to back those messages, they say, the near impossible task of holding global temperature rise to 1.5C will become even more difficult.

Ms Perry's comments came as she launched Green GB week, which aims to show how the UK can increase the economy while also cutting emissions. She will formally ask advisers how Britain can cut emissions to zero.


Trump Signs Bill to Clean Up Oceans from Trash Floating from Foreign Countries

Once again America has to shoulder the burden of problems created by others

President Donald Trump signed into law a bipartisan bill Thursday to clean up oceans from millions of tons of floating debris dumped into the ocean annually.

The president said foreign countries like China and Japan are to blame for dumping 8 million tons of debris each year into the world’s oceans, which then floats to the U.S. coast.

“Every year, over 8 million tons of garbage is dumped into our beautiful oceans by many countries of the world. That includes China, that includes Japan, and that includes many, many countries. This waste, trash, and debris harms not only marine life, but also fishermen, coastal economies along America’s vast stretches. The bad news is it floats toward us,” Trump said.

“I’ve seen pictures recently, and some of you have seen them, where there’s -- a vast, tremendous, unthinkable amount of garbage is floating right into our coast, in particular along the West Coast. And we’re charged with removing it, which is a very unfair situation. It comes from other countries very far away. It takes six months and a year to float over, but it gets here, and it’s a very unfair situation. It’s also unbelievably bad for the oceans,” he said.

The Save Our Seas Act “amends the Marine Debris Act to revise the Marine Debris Program to require the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to work with: (1) other agencies to address both land- and sea-based sources of marine debris, and (2) the Department of State and other agencies to promote international action to reduce the incidence of marine debris.”

The measure “also revises the program by allowing NOAA to make sums available for assisting in the cleanup and response required by severe marine debris events.”

“Every year, over 8 million tons of garbage is dumped into our beautiful oceans. And when you think of that number -- I mean, to think 8 million tons -- and I would say it's probably -- Senators, I think it’s probably more than that, based on what I’ve seen and based on the kind of work that I’ve seen being done,” the president said.

“This dumping has happened for years and even for decades. Previous administrations did absolutely nothing to take on the foreign countries responsible. We’ve already notified most of them and we’ve notified them very strongly,” he said.

According to Trump, the Marine Debris Program will be extended for five more years.

The bill also calls on the president to “support funding for research and development of bio-based and other alternatives or environmentally feasible improvements to materials that reduce municipal solid waste” and to “work with foreign countries that contribute the most to the global marine debris problem in order to find a solution to the problem.”

The bill also urges the president to “study issues related to marine debris, including the economic impacts of marine debris; and encourage the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative to consider the impact of marine debris in relevant future trade agreements.”

“We also are strengthening that up to improve waste management overseas and clean up our nation’s water. We will boost the federal government’s response to ocean waste by authorizing the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to declare severe marine debris events, which happen all the time. It’s incredible. It’s incredible when you look at it. People don’t realize it, but all the time we’re being inundated by debris from other countries,” Trump said.

“This legislation will release funds to states for cleanup and for response efforts, and we will be responding and very strongly. The legislation also encourages the executive branch to engage with those nations responsible for dumping garbage into our oceans. My administration is doing exactly that,” Trump said.

The president said the new trade agreement he brokered between the U.S., Mexico, and Canada is the first to address the issue.

“For example, the new United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement is the first U.S. trade agreement ever to include commitments by the parties to cooperate to address land- and sea-based pollution and improve waste management,” Trump said, adding that it will be put into other agreements as well.

“The United States has some of the most beautiful beaches and oceans in the world, and the coastlines are incredible. As president, I will continue to do everything I can to stop other nations from making our oceans into their landfills.That’s why I’m pleased -- very pleased, I must say -- to put my signature on this important legislation,” he said.


Tesla Buyers Lose $7500 Tax Credit

Tesla has reached the beginning of the end of the $7500 federal tax credit for buyers of the automaker's electric vehicles. The rules of the credit spell out that only the buyers of the first 200,000 electric vehicles sold by each manufacturer are eligible for the full amount; after that point, the credit begins to decrease over time. Tesla hit the 200,000 mark earlier this year, and its credit will expire at the end of 2018. Because of this, Tesla has set a deadline for vehicle orders to be eligible for the credit: October 15.

On Tesla's website, the automaker claims that all vehicle orders placed by that date will be delivered by December 31, 2018, meaning they'll qualify for the full $7500. Deliveries starting January 1, 2019, will only be eligible for a $3750 credit, while deliveries starting July 1, 2019, will drop down to a credit of just $1875. This applies to the Model S, Model X, and Model 3.

This deadline won't affect the typical ordering and delivery process for Tesla vehicles. According to Tesla, those who submit their orders, along with a $2500 deposit, by October 15 will be guaranteed delivery of the vehicle by the end of the year. Final delivery is contingent on the buyer's payment of the full purchase price of the vehicle through leasing, financing, or paying cash (the $2500 deposit is credited toward the final purchase).

We would assume that this deadline will lead to an uptick in orders over the next few days, but Tesla hasn't made any announcements about a plan to ramp up production to make sure all these vehicles get delivered in time to be eligible for the credit.


Former Australian conservative leader John Hewson (The man who lost an "unlosable" election) urges voters to dump conservatives  over climate inaction

Hewson is an embittered man and has drifted Left since he lost. One also wonders whether he is still Chairman of "Port Augusta Graphite Energy" which wants millions in government grants to build a solar thermal plant in SA?  Follow the money? Hewson in fact earns his living by promoting global warming schemes and policies  

Former Liberal leader John Hewson has urged voters to turn on the Liberals in the up-coming Wentworth by-election over climate change, saying it may serve as a wake up call.

Dr John Hewson, who led the Liberal party from 1990 to 1994, said most Australians were disgusted the government had failed to show leadership on climate change.

"It's irresponsible, it's grossly irresponsible - we have politicians playing short-term political games for short-term political gains when they should be delivering a decisive climate action plan," he told SBS News. "It's a national disgrace."

The former Liberal MP for Wentworth stressed he was not endorsing or advocating for any particular candidate but said a political party without a policy on tackling climate change had lost the mandate to form a government. "You lose the right to govern if you do not listen to the electorate on these issues," he said. "This is why the electorate is pissed off."

Independent Kerryn Phelps looks poised to take out Malcolm Turnbull's former seat, based on the latest polling - resulting in a minority federal parliament.




Preserving the graphics:  Most graphics on this site are hotlinked from elsewhere.  But hotlinked graphics sometimes have only a short life -- as little as a week in some cases.  After that they no longer come up.  From January 2011 on, therefore, I have posted a monthly copy of everything on this blog to a separate site where I can host text and graphics together -- which should make the graphics available even if they are no longer coming up on this site.  See  here or here


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