Monday, April 18, 2011

Another blow to Warmist theory: Decreasing radiation from greenhouse gases

It's not clear to me how they pick out "bounced" IR radiation from the flood of IR radiation coming from the sun but they are clearly operating within the Warmist frame of reference so one would think this to be a direct disproof of Warmism: CO2 just isn't doing what Warmists say it does. But Warmists will ignore it, of course. I guess it's not part of "The Science" -- JR

The anthropogenic global warming theory is based upon the notion that increasing 'greenhouse gases' will increase infrared 'back-radiation' to the earth to [supposedly] warm the planet. The theory also claims that increases in the minor 'greenhouse gas' carbon dioxide will cause increases in the major 'greenhouse gas' water vapor to amplify the infrared 'back-radiation' and global warming. A study published online yesterday in The Journal of Climate, however, finds that contrary to the global warming theory, infrared 'back-radiation' from greenhouse gases has declined over the past 14 years in the US Southern Great Plains in winter, summer, and autumn. If the anthropogenic global warming theory was correct, the infrared 'back-radiation' should have instead increased year-round over the past 14 years along with the steady rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide.
Journal of Climate 2011

Long-Term Trends in Downwelling Spectral Infrared Radiance over the U.S. Southern Great Plains

P. Jonathan Gero & David D. Turner


A trend analysis was applied to a 14-year time series of downwelling spectral infrared radiance observations from the Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer (AERI) located at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) site in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. The highly accurate calibration of the AERI instrument, performed every 10 minutes, ensures that any statistically significant trend in the observed data over this time can be attributed to changes in the atmospheric properties and composition, and not to changes in the sensitivity or responsivity of the instrument.

The measured infrared spectra, numbering over 800,000, were classified as clear-sky, thin cloud, and thick cloud scenes using a neural network method. The AERI data record demonstrates that the downwelling infrared radiance is decreasing over this 14-year time period in the winter, summer, and autumn seasons but is increasing in the spring; these trends are statistically significant and are primarily due to long-term change in the cloudiness above the site.

The AERI data also show many statistically significant trends on annual, seasonal, and diurnal time scales, with different trend signatures identified in the separate scene classifications. Given the decadal time span of the dataset, effects from natural variability should be considered in drawing broader conclusions.

Nevertheless, this data set has high value due to the ability to infer possible mechanisms for any trends from the observations themselves, and to test the performance of climate models.


A rather sweeping admission of ignorance

"The measurement of emissions has huge errors". Is that how the science got to be "settled"?

A better monitoring network for greenhouses gases is needed to warn of significant changes and to keep countries that have agreed to cut their emissions honest, scientists said in papers published Monday.

"What we're hoping to do is see if the warming is feeding the warming, particularly in the Arctic," said Euan Nisbet, a specialist in methane emissions at the University of London. "Our monitoring network is very, very limited. We feel more observation is needed."

Such measurement could warn of possible climate tipping points, scientists said in papers published by Britain's science academy, the Royal Society.

The data also could be used to verify countries' reporting of greenhouse gas emissions against targets under the present Kyoto Protocol and a possible successor after 2012.

The Earth's climate in the past has changed in a relatively short period of time, warming rapidly about 12,000 years ago at the end of the most recent glacial period.

Scientists are not sure why that happened, and have warned of possible climate tipping points from manmade emissions. They are concerned, for example, that as Arctic permafrost melts it would allow plant matter to rot and vent methane, a greenhouse gas which could trigger more warming.

Nisbet said the earth last came out of a glacial period "in a matter of a decade or so," referring to rapid warming followed by a more prolonged ice melt, and warned of serious consequences if that were to be repeated now.

A retreat of Arctic summer ice warming has been observed in recent years against a 30-year satellite record, shrinking to its lowest level in 2007 and coinciding with a spike in methane. "In 2007 the Arctic methane emissions appeared to increase very sharply, and then stabilized a bit later. The question is what were the causes of that," Nisbet said.


An extra benefit of wider measurement would be an independent test of national reporting of greenhouse gas emissions. Under the Kyoto Protocol, nearly 40 industrialized countries report their emissions against targets from 2008-2012.

A particularly thorny issue in negotiations to agree a successor pact from 2013 is how far international inspectors might oversee emissions reporting. A network of stations may provide a technical answer. "We're trying to verify the greenhouse gas emissions that are declared by the various countries," Nisbet said. "The measurement of emissions has huge errors."

One way to cross-check national reporting is to count all the sources of greenhouse gas emissions, from cars through power plant to cows. Another is to use an improved network of climate stations to measure greenhouse gases in the air and use prevailing winds to calculate where they come from.

Nisbet's paper was one of more than 15 published in a special issue of Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society Monday, setting out key research questions to better understand the impact of greenhouse gases on the climate.

A replacement satellite is planned for 2013 after the previous "orbiting carbon observatory" crashed on launch in 2009.


Volcanoes Have Little Impact On Atmospheric CO2 – And Also A Huge Impact

The volcano/CO2 story flip-flops depending on what the agenda for the day is. Some days it is convenient to blame past climate change on volcanic CO2.
Multiple phases of carbon cycle disturbance from large igneous province formation at the Triassic-Jurassic transition

M. Ruhl and W.M. Kurschner, Palaeoecology, Laboratory of Palaeobotany and Palynology, Institute of Environmental Biology, Faculty of Science, Utrecht University, Budapestlaan 4, NL-3584 CD Utrecht, Netherlands; doi: 10.1130/G31680.1.

The end-Triassic mass extinction event (~200 million years ago) is one of the Big Five mass extinction events in earth history. It is marked by global extinction of up to 50% of all species living in the oceans and by large changes in ecosystems on the continents. The cause for the extinction event is related to strongly intensified volcanic activity and deposition of the largest basalt deposit on Earth, the Central Atlantic Magmatic Province. Recent studies show that the end-Triassic mass extinction event directly coincided with the onset of this volcanic period that lasted for ~600,000 years.

The release of massive amounts of carbon dioxide from volcanism triggered a strong change in the global carbon cycle and likely had a strong impact on global climate. M. Ruhl and W.M. Kurschner of Utrecht University show, however, that a strong increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide of up to 1000 parts per million (today’s values are ~350 parts per million) and a strong change in the global carbon cycle already occurred ~100,000 years before the onset of intense volcanism. This suggests that large amounts of carbon dioxide were already released by the thermal heating of organic-rich sediments by intrusion of magma bodies from the mantle on their way to Earth’s surface.

On other days, they want to prove that volcanoes aren’t major contributors of CO2.
The burning of fossil fuels and changes in land use results in the emission into the atmosphere of approximately 30 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide per year worldwide, according to the EIA. The fossil fuels emissions numbers are about 100 times bigger than even the maximum estimated volcanic CO2 fluxes. Our understanding of volcanic discharges would have to be shown to be very mistaken before volcanic CO2 discharges could be considered anything but a bit player in contributing to the recent changes observed in the concentration of CO2 in the Earth’s atmosphere.

SOURCE (See the original for links)

Preachy Germany’s Black Coal Consumption Skyrockets 15.4% in 2010 – Due To Cold!

Face it, Germany’s elitst leaders think that by righteously adopting positions of “protecting the climate” and the “responsible” use of energy, they’ll be able to assume the role as the world’s moral leaders.

The pious, like Chancellor Angela Merkel and all the leaders of all other parties, media, etc., all insist they have truly learned the lessons of history and are now ready to take on moral leadership of the world and exercise the authority to admonish the rest of the world for its wasteful energy use.

Almost daily does the German public hear of a new energy-savings plan announced by these annoyingly pious and wise leaders on how to be even more responsible, and demands to make even more energy sacrifices, e.g. like shutting down power plants, installing more solar and wind farms, eliminating light bulbs, imposing tougher auto emissions standards, mandating ethanol, regulating people’s fireplaces, plans to increase tax on energy, and even master plans for the great transformation of world society. The list is endless.

Readers here would think that Germany surely will soon be a carbon-free paradise, an island of nature and morality. Well, think again. According to the Swiss online ee-news, Germany’s primary energy consumption spiked 4.6% in 2010 - due to the “economic rebound and cooler weather“. EE-News writes:

"The higher energy consumption led to an increase in energy-dependent CO2 emissions. According to the calculations of the AG Energy Management, there were very little changes in the energy mix as a whole and about two thirds of the energy increase came from carbon-based energy sources. The increase in energy-dependent CO2 emissions was at about 4%.”

While Germany’s leaders demand other countries reduce their carbon footprints and be more responsible with the use of energy, they have no qualms about their own growing consumption. Especially burning anthracite coal, which James Hansen compared to death trains, shot up 15.4%. The use of anthracite coal increased even much more than the “booming” renewable energies, which increased only a relatively weak 9.9%.

Yet, let’s not blame the average citizen’s desire to stay warm, and to work and use more energy to fill customer orders. I say be happy they are burning more and not less. German products are solutions that make other people’s lives easier all over the world. So hopefully Germans will consume even more in the future, and so continue producing more technology, machinery and solutions to fulfill human needs for comfort and dignity. Indeed, using more energy to help others is arguably a moral obligation.

Here are some of consumption increase statistics (%):

Petroleum: +1.3%
Natural gas: + 4.2%
Anthracite coal: + 15.4%
Brown coal: +0.2
Renewables: + 9.9%


GOP: EPA ‘evaporating’ from hearings

House Republicans aren’t happy that top EPA officials are skipping hearings on efforts to roll back the agency’s regulations. “We could call them the Evaporating Personnel Administration, I guess,” Texas Republican Rep. Joe Barton said Friday. “They don’t seem to ever show up and be accountable.”

Of three Energy and Commerce Committee hearings held this week on controversial EPA rules, the agency sent an administration witness to just one.

Rep. Henry Waxman of California, the top Democrat on the panel, sent a letter Tuesday to top committee Republicans saying the EPA couldn’t make it because the majority didn’t give either the EPA or the Democrats enough advance notice. He asked Republicans to make “greater efforts in the future to ensure that the committee is able to hear from administration witnesses by providing adequate notice.”

But Barton said EPA chief Lisa Jackson should have cleared her schedule for Friday’s hearing on air toxics standards, or so-called “MACT” rules. “I do find it troubling once again that Lisa Jackson once again is a no show at a very important hearing that she’s had every opportunity to be in attendance,” Barton said. “The MACT truck is about to run us over all and she’s not even here to comment on those regulations.”

Rep. Ed Whitfield, chairman of the Energy and Power Subcommittee, said the committee is planning another hearing on air toxics rules after the congressional recess so EPA can attend. “It’s imperative that we have testimony from EPA,” he said.

EPA air chief Gina McCarthy wrote a letter to Whitfield Thursday saying she regretted her absence. "Unfortunately I have long standing obligations that I was unable to change on such short notice," McCarthy said. "I assure you that I am not taking this invitation or any invitation to testify before Congress lightly." She's giving two speeches Friday in California, according to her public schedule.

The flap comes a little more than two months after E&C Democrats complained they “had to kick and scream and scratch” to get Jackson invited to testify at a February hearing on EPA’s climate regulations.

For Friday’s hearing, “There was agreement from both sides that EPA should be invited, but the Republicans did not invite them until well after the hearings were publicly noticed,” a spokeswoman for the E&C Democrats wrote to POLITICO.



Three current articles below

Carbon guilt trip just won't wash

Julia Thornton

FROM time to time, when governments realise they're not getting anywhere with us, they turn to the politics of guilt to get us to support their pet projects or policies. The latest is the carbon tax.

Climate Change Minister Greg Combet addressed the National Press Club this week and gave six key arguments that summarise the Gillard Government's response to the climate change challenge.

The first one was Australia is one of the world's top 20 polluters and we release more pollution per person than any other country in the developed world, more than the United States even.

I used to think Americans had the monopoly on big cars and icemakers, but apparently we are worse. This explains why so many Hummer drivers have been tailgating me lately.

The first thing that came to mind is we must have a garbage island similar to that of the great toxic plastic garbage island the Americans have floating in the Pacific between Hawaii and Japan. Apparently it's twice the size of Texas.

But I know we don't have a great big toxic garbage island and being told that, as an Australian, I produce more pollution than an American annoys me.

Australia emits per capita the most carbon emissions because of our mining industry. The mere fact we open the ground up and take stuff out of it creates carbon emissions. The use of the coal in electricity produces carbon emissions.

And these are factoids which go into the statistic which says Australia is one of the world's top 20 polluters and we're worse than the Americans.

It hasn't bothered me that the Government has used guilt from time to time to get us to toe the line. We've reduced deaths on the road by reducing the incidence of drink driving and speeding, for example. But now it's getting very personal.

For all those people who have conscientiously recycled and composted, it's a statistic which doesn't do them justice. There is enough anecdotal and actual evidence in the media and on opinion pages to show Australians are highly aware of their waste and their pollution and they want to do their bit to reduce it.

Shortly after the carbon tax was announced by Prime Minister Gillard, Mr Combet offered us advice as to how to reduce the cost of a carbon tax. He suggested we avoid using airconditioning and change our high-energy lightbulbs to low-energy ones.

Minister Combet is a Victorian who spends a lot of time in Canberra. He doesn't really get Queensland, does he? Those of us who were not in the thick of flood clean-up or in the middle of a cyclone, were experiencing the usual late summer temperatures which make airconditioning not so much a luxury, but a cool relief.

Telling us we're more wasteful than Americans isn't fair. And it isn't right. Just as an example, if you've ever been to a restaurant in America, you'll be given a frosted glass full of ice with a little bit of water. At the turn of the 1900s, New York went through a heatwave unlike any before. Ice became a sign of prosperity and it remains a habit. Visit any American hotel and they have ice makers in the hallways and an ice bucket in the room.

Here in Brisbane, in high summer, I've asked for a glass of water and got a tiny little glass with a dying ice cube. And that's ok, because I am an Australian with sensitive teeth.

We need the full facts on how a carbon price will affect us and how much it will cost. We don't need the politics of guilt on this one.


Greens' wilting appeal

Miranda Devine

NOW we know that the meddling ideological extremism of the Greens cost them the inner-city seat of Marrickville in the NSW election last month. What should have been a shoo-in in one of the most barmy left electorates in the country resulted in more than one-in-three voters rejecting the Greens because of Marrickville Council's Israel boycott, according to a poll by a Jewish group.

This is a boycott that, by the Green-controlled council's own figures, will cost it as much as $4 million to stop using Israeli-linked products such as Hewlett-Packard computers (apparently used at Israeli checkpoints) and Motorola telephones.

The voters were first to show some backbone, after abiding years of Green dabbling in Middle East politics. But last week Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd slammed the boycott as "nuts" and NSW Premier Barry O'Farrell threatened to sack the council if it doesn't reverse its stance.

Sensing the end of his dream run, even the Greens' supreme leader, Bob Brown, rejected the boycott and distanced himself from his failed state candidate, Marrickville mayor Fiona Byrne, although he can't help offloading blame onto what he calls the "hate media" for costing his party the seat. But he should look a little closer to home for the culprit.

Jake, a 55-year-old Jewish health professional with friends in Marrickville, was so incensed by the council's Israel boycott that he took three weeks off work to wage a guerrilla campaign against the Greens, plastering the suburb with posters late at night, accusing them of homophobia for boycotting gay-friendly Israel.

"I felt so angry," says Jake, who wants to remain anonymous. "I couldn't sleep at night, so I organised the posters, hired some utes and ladders" and enlisted the help of his son and his friends. Greens supporters harassed them, ripped down the posters, called police, and tried to intimidate Jake's young helpers, posting footage of them on YouTube.

Two nights before the election, a "black sports car with neon high beams and a pseudo photographer kept flashing his camera right up on our eyes . . . It slowed us right down."

Another night "cowboy" greenies in a Toyota Camry started following them home, until Jake confronted the driver at a roundabout. "It was like something out of a movie".

On election day, Jake and his son organised 10 friends wearing T-shirts with "Boycott the Greens" logos to visit polling booths, prompting "Zionist pigs" abuse from greenies.

"The Greens knew we were the enemy, but the Labor people all nodded and smiled and gave us the thumbs up. Anthony Albanese [whose wife Carmel Tebbutt was ALP candidate] shook my hand and thanked me. We must have had quite an effect.

"On Sunday I took the boys out to dinner. It's not often in life a private citizen can make a difference." And make a difference he did. The Greens lost to Labor by fewer than 700 votes, in a seat they were favourites to snare.

The backlash was quite a shock to the Greens, whose extremist ideological baggage is at last costing them votes.

After all, as Jake points out, if they actually cared about the environment or human rights they would realise Israel is the only democracy in the Middle East, and the only country in the region where people can be openly and proudly gay. Israel's neighbours, meantime, routinely stone homosexuals to death.

Israel is also the Middle East's Eden, having greened the desert with millions of trees, eco friendly exports, and superior water conservation.

And if anti-Israel Greens are so concerned about children in the Middle East why haven't they lamented the fate of the Fogel children of Samaria -- 11-year-old Yoav, four-year-old Elad and three-month-old Hadas, murdered in their beds by Palestinian terrorists just two weeks before the NSW election.

The Middle East conflict is not a game. Yet it has somehow become a vehicle for moral preening half a world way and a badge of belonging for lazy leftists whose talents are best suited to fixing potholes, which, by the way, abound in Marrickville.


Coldest March On Record In Australia, says BOM

Is this why we need a carbon tax?

Maximum temperatures nationally were the coldest on record with a national anomaly of -2.19°C. Most of Australia recorded below average mean maxima with parts of the north and south of the country recording their coldest March on record.

This was partly due to increased cloudiness across most of the country associated with the above average rainfall recorded throughout the month. March 2011 included some contrasts between the majority of Australia and the west and east coasts, which were the only areas that experienced above average daytime temperatures.

Temperatures were coolest in the central part of Australia where rainfall was most abnormal, with maximum temperatures more than 3°C below average Similarly, drier conditions matched up with areas of above-normal maxima in western WA.



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