Sunday, April 18, 2010

The Fog of Climate ‘Science’

In 2009, environmentalists were sure global warming was the reason California’s Bay Area fog was increasing. Now they’re saying global warming is making the fog go away—indicating that the science may not be as “settled” as some seem to think.

Gateway Pundit noted that in 2009, The San Francisco Chronicle claimed that “The Bay Area just had its foggiest May in 50 years. And thanks to global warming, it’s about to get even foggier.” Yet, in 2010, The Telegraph has asserted that “the sight of Golden Gate Bridge towering above the fog will become increasing [sic] rare as climate change warms San Francisco bay.”

The first article was written in May of 2009; the second, February of 2010. When scientists start trying to explain how global warming is affecting our everyday life, their findings conflict drastically. Both papers and claims are under a year old. Which one do we trust?

The issue isn’t whether or not global warming is happening: the issue is how much scientists really can know about how new climates will effect us. There are far more variables involved with climate change than any scientist in today’s world could hope to understand. Given the constantly evolving stances of climate scientists, we ought to be more careful when it comes to what we believe about climate change.

As Heritage expert Dr. James Carafano explained in his 2009 testimony before the Environment and Public Works Committee, the global warming theory suffers the “folly of simplicity,” pointing out that in Jared Diamond’s study Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed, “Diamond lists a daunting 12 factors that historically contributed to the collapse of a society–and these are only the factors directly controlled by humans. It is worth noting,” Dr. Carafano went on, “that Diamond is able to detail how this myriad of forces and choices interacted with one another only through the hindsight gained through hundreds of years of historical and archeological research.”

In other words, the complexity of human-environment causal relationships is such that it typically takes many years—centuries, even—to fully understand what causes what when it comes to humans interacting with the environment:

History is in fact littered with case studies that suggest straight-line mapping of human-environment interaction is problematic,” Dr. Carafano testified. “Anticipating with certainty how climate change will affect human progress is a march of folly.

His points are only validated by the assumptions regarding the Bay Area’s fog today. We cannot anticipate anything regarding climate change with certainty—and the “new” research is proving it.


Greenies lose one

Greenies hate dams, period

A judge has overturned a decision that could have delayed construction of a huge Amazon dam opposed by environmentalists, Indians and James Cameron, the director of Avatar.

The judge in the capital of Brasilia reversed a decision to suspend contract bidding scheduled for next week and also overturned the suspension of the environmental license for the 11,000-megawatt Belo Monte dam, according to a statement from Brazil's solicitor general.

A spokesman for Brazil's electricity regulator, known as Aneel, said that plans were being made to hold the auction as planned for Tuesday but that the latest decision could be appealed. She spoke on condition of anonymity in keeping with policy.

Titanic director Cameron was in Brazil this week to protest the dam, and the decision to delay bidding came on Wednesday.

Environmentalists and indigenous groups say Belo Monte would devastate wildlife and the livelihoods of 40,000 people who live in the area to be flooded. They also argue that the energy generated by the dam will largely go to big mining operations, instead of benefiting most Brazilians.

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has repeatedly insisted that the dam is essential for Brazil's future energy needs.

Latin America's largest nation has a fragile energy grid that was hit last year by a blackout that darkened much of the nation. Belo Monte would supply 6 percent of the country's electricity needs by 2014, the same year Brazil will host soccer's World Cup and just two years before Rio de Janeiro holds the 2016 Olympics.

Cameron this week called the proposed dam a "pivotal battleground" because it will set the stage for development of more dams.

He took part in a protest against the dam in Brasilia and visited with Indians in the small Amazon city of Altamira near the proposed dam site.


What's Left if We Disregard Non-Peer-Reviewed Claims?

Does it matter that 1 in 3 sources cited by the climate bible aren't peer-reviewed? Yes it does. Because once you strike out all the statements that don't rest on peer-reviewed research there sometimes isn't much left.

Economist Richard Tol blogged about a particular section of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report in early March. When I took a look for myself, I discovered seven studies in total being used to support the IPCC's point-of-view on this page of the report.

That sounds like a reasonable basis for drawing conclusions. But checking the full entry for each of these studies in the list of references provided for that chapter reveals that only one out of seven is a peer-reviewed document.

* Bollen et al. (2004) was produced by an agency of the Dutch government

* Russ, Ciscar, and Szabo (2005) was published by the European Commission

* EEA (2006) is a European Union report

* the Stern Review (2006) was produced by the UK government

* Anderson (2006) was published by the Imperial College of London

* Barker et al. (2006a) is a working paper from the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research

Only Den Elzen et al. (2005) experienced the peer-review process prior to its publication in the academic journal Energy Policy.

So if we subtract all the verbiage associated with those six non-peer-reviewed papers how much remains?

Altogether, the four paragraphs on the page amount to 593 words. But only 98 of those words - 17 percent - are backed up by peer-reviewed research. And remember, according to the IPCC chairman, Rajendra Pachauri, all other research deserves to be thrown into the dustbin

More HERE (See the original for links, graphics etc.)

Not again: Yet another Warmist has to be rescued from Arctic cold

A Smithering idiot with a hunger for self-publicity

Tom Smitheringale's Record Breaking, Unaided North Pole Expedition
Part of the reason Tom’s One Man Epic is taking place now is because of the effect that global warming is having on the polar ice caps. Over the past 20 years, scientists have noticed that our world is heating up. As the great polar ice floes melt, sea levels are slowly rising and the huge glaciers are becoming weaker and weaker. Some scientists have even estimated that the polar ice cap will have entirely melted away by 2014!
April 5: Frostbite
Tom Smitheringale’s frostbitten thumbs caused him a lot of pain, so much so that he decided to ask for an evacuation. After several phone calls and some rest he cancelled his decision and is more than ever determined to carry on.
April 7: Smitheringale's frostbite setback - ABC Perth - Australian Broadcasting Corporation
Tom Smitheringale's One Man Epic trek across the Arctic has suffered a setback as agonising frostbite settles in.
April 16: Australian rescued by Canadian Forces after Arctic accident
Although the weather was favourable for the rescue mission, Smitheringale was about 460 kilometres northwest of Canadian Forces Station Alert — the edge of the operating range of the two twin otter search planes and civilian helicopter that were dispatched to the accident site, said Robert.

..... Smitheringale was picked up around 9 p.m. Thursday and transported to CFS Alert suffering from hypothermia and frostbite in his extremities, said Robert.

...... Smitheringale, who had already trekked nearly 300 kilometres and had endured temperatures as low as -50 degrees Celsius over the previous 46 days, is expected to be evacuated from CFS Alert to a civilian hospital on Friday.


Global warming enslaves African girls!

Since there has been NO global warming for at least the last 10 years, the problems noted below could not be caused by global warming

Lack of adequate education, extreme poverty and the encroaching fallout of climate change is now forcing Masaai parents in the Mar region of Kenya, Africa to ‘sell off’ their young underage daughters to a group of human traffickers who are posing as white foreign tourists.

Problems relating to extreme poverty are not new to the Maasai. As the incidence of human trafficking rises and the sex tourists flock to Kenya, frustration, fear and distrust among Maasai communities is also rising.

“Human trafficking is a serious problem in Kenya,” says a recent 2010 IOM – International Organisation for Migration factsheet. “Kenya has been recognized as a country of origin, destination and transit as well as a place for domestic trafficking. Women, men, girls and boys have been identified to be trafficked in Kenya, although most cases identified to date involve children, especially in cases of domestic trafficking.”

Tourists who come to the region with intentions to market the work labour of Maasai girls, whether for domestic work; street vending; factory or sex slavery; are now entering the country outside the radar of most standard reporting agencies.

“Victims are trafficked mainly for sexual exploitation and domestic labour but also for agriculture work, factory work and street work,” continues the report. “Victims from neighbouring countries have been identified in Kenya and Kenyan victims have been identified in Europe, South Africa, the Gulf States and North America.”

Some traffickers who are entering the Mara region come into Kenya as standard ‘tourists’ saying they are there to visit the nearby Masaai Mara National Park and view wildlife in the world renowned park. But the travel cover is a farce. For those who may not want to stay in high class hotels inside the Mara Game Reserve, they end up choosing lodges in Kajiado and Narok Townships, where they interact freely without sanction from the communities there.

“They are usually friendly and they shower us many times with some small pocket money,” says Hezbon Sarpur, a member of Narok Township, as he describes the general parade of tourists who come to the area legitimately.

Climate Change Impacts

“The Maasai historically have not worked outside their communities,” says Gáldu in a August 2008 report. “They have eschewed a Western style, currency-based economy, opting instead for a life based on nomadic pastoralism. Cattle are the central component of the society. But because of climate change, things are changing in the Maasai lands.”

As climate change intensifies, the impact for families to find food, brings desperate measures. Families are now seeking any solution to survive. The selling of daughters into slave markets is, one of the solutions, causing young women , girls to be swept away by what many guess are modern slave traders.

“In the past few years alone, because of droughts, we have seen a huge number of economic refugees targeted by human traffickers with a promise of better life elsewhere,” said Mr Abdullahi Hirsi, the executive director of Northern Heritage, a local aid agency in Garissa. “A spot-check in Garissa, Wajir and Mandera shows that the illegal business is conducted daily, final arrangements done in Nairobi,” he added.

For decades human trafficking in Nairobi has been relatively ignored. Only within the last ten years has attention to this growing plight been given more notice. Political strife in Kenya, added to climate change stress on the economy has made the area an easy target for international crime cartels.

“They even give us lots more money ($2000 Kenyan Shillings, which equals approx $27 USD) for them to take our daughters, nieces, cousins, and younger sisters for a better life for the girls,” continued Sarpur, explaining the selling of girls.

More bulldust HERE

Poll: Most Nevadans Skeptical of Global Warming

A statewide poll shows 55 percent of Nevadans think global warming is unproven and subject to debate.

The Las Vegas Review-Journal survey found that 35 percent of those surveyed consider global warming a scientifically established reality. The newspaper reported that the percentage of skeptics is up 11 percentage points from a similar survey in 2008.

The poll also found that 55 percent of respondents oppose legislation to restrict carbon gas emissions while 37 percent support it.

Pollster Brad Coker says he thinks there has been a political shift on the issue because of the ailing economy.

The poll of 625 registered Nevada voters was conducted Tuesday and Wednesday by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.


More history: Who's who on climate fraud

In 1912, a respected paleontologist at the British Museum confirmed that bones found in a Piltdown quarry came from the “missing link” between apes and humans. Forty years later, the so-called Piltdown Man was proved to be a hoax. Thanks to purloined e-mails from the University of East Anglia’s Climate Research Unit (CRU), global warming is turning out to be the 21st-century equivalent of Piltdown Man.

E-mails between a small group of highly influential climate scientists at the center of the worldwide panic over global warming exposed multiple discussions among them concerning their manipulation of data and using various evasive tactics to avoid releasing the facts behind their ginned-up numbers to the public via Freedom of Information Act requests. Here’s a rogue’s gallery of five major perpetrators of what’s turning out to be the biggest scientific hoax in modern history:

Geoff Jenkins, chairman of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s first scientific group and self-described “frontman explaining climate change.” Jenkins admitted in 1996 to a “cunning plan” to feed fake temperature information to Nick Nuttall, head of media for the United Nations Environment program. At the time, Jenkins predicted temperatures in London would hit 113 degrees Fahrenheit and the Thames River would rise three feet even though 1996 was, in fact, cooler than 1995.

Phil Jones, director of the CRU, controlled two key databases that are the primary sources underlying claims by the United Nations and others of a global scientific “consensus” that catastrophic consequences will result from man-made global warming unless trillions of dollars are spent now to prevent it. Jones e-mailed instructions to colleagues to “hide the decline” in temperatures and to pressure editors of academic journals to blackball the work of “climate skeptics.” After claiming that the original climate data had been destroyed in the 1980s, Jones was caught urging his CRU colleagues to “delete as appropriate” data requested under Britain’s freedom of information laws.

Michael Mann, director of Penn State University’s Earth System Science Center, is one of the lead authors of the U.N.’s Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change report. Mann was the originator of the “hockey stick” graph that supposedly proved that the Earth’s temperature was at the highest level in recorded history. However, it also appeared to eliminate both the Medieval Warm Period, in which surface temperatures were higher than they are today, and Europe’s “Little Ice Age.”

In 2003, Canadian statistician Steve McIntyre exposed the flawed methodology behind Mann’s hockey stick. The recent e-mail leak led another scientist to quip: “Dr. Mann is in transition from Penn State to State Pen. We can only hope he does a better job with license plates.”

Mann has been a committee chairman for the National Academy of Sciences and a member of multiple NAS panels and committees.

James Hansen, head of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, whose records were also cited as evidence, second only to the CRU data, of incontrovertible man-made global warming. McIntyre also caught Hansen engaging in the same sort of statistical manipulation in which past temperatures were lowered and recent ones “adjusted” to convey the false impression that the nonexistent warming trend was accelerating. After trying to block McIntyre’s IP address, NASA was forced to back down from its claim that 1998 was the hottest year in U.S. history.

Al Gore, Former Vice President Al Gore is the author of “An Inconvenient Truth,” star of the 2006 Oscar-winning movie of the same name and winner of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize for his tireless efforts to limit economic development in industrialized countries with a cap-and-trade scheme. Many experts agree that such a system would increase food and energy prices, while wasting trillions of dollars on alternative energy sources (in which Gore is heavily invested). Gore’s case rests on the now-discredited theory that carbon dioxide emissions (which are increasing) are heating up the Earth’s atmosphere, even though actual global temperatures have been declining for at least a decade.

These five, though far from being the only ones, are among the top perpetrators of the Great Global Warming Hoax. They should never be taken seriously again.



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