Tuesday, March 04, 2008

Global cooling predictions

An email to Marc Morano from Don Easterbrook below. Easterbrook is an emeritus professor of geology at Western Washington University. His bio is here. His email is dbunny@titan.cc.wwu.edu

What prompted me to send you some additional material was Revkin's NY Times article in which he

(1) quotes a bunch of CO2 dogmatists as saying the cooling is just a minor blip and we'll be back headed for toast very soon, and

(2) although he quotes you, he doesn't quote any scientists who have good data that what we're seeing is not just weather, but rather a fully expected change to a global cooling mode. So I sent you a bunch of data that I thought might be useful in responding to the global cooling deniers, namely:

1. We've been on a predicted cooling trend since 2002 (see above curve). The average of the four main temperature measuring methods is slightly cooler since 2002 (except for a brief el Nino interuption) and record breaking cooling this winter. The argument that this is too short a time period to be meanful would be valid were it not for the fact that this cooling exactly fits the pattern of timing of warm/cool cycles over the past 400 years and was predicted (see publications I sent earlier).

2. We are entering a solar cycle of much reduced sun spots, very similar to that which accompanied the change from the Medieval Warm Period to the Little Ice Age, which virtually all scientists agree was caused by solar variation. Thus, we seem to be headed for cooler temperatures as a result of reduced solar irradiance.

3. Sea surface temperatures in the NE Pacific mirror the atmospheric observations of cooling since 2002.

4. Some glaciers are slowing their rate of retreat in response to the past 6 years of cooling. (They aren't readvancing yet because it takes awhile for a turnaround.

So what is the significance of the present globally icy winter and slight cooling for the past 6 years? By itself, it's weather and arguably not statistically important. However, when considered in the light of the past 6-year cooling trend, the continuation of that pattern is important because if we are to believe the IPCC's prediction of a 1o F warming by 2011, that will require warming of almost 1o F in the next three years!

The IPCC recasts its predictions every year to match actual conditions so they appear to stay `on-track.' However, they made finite predictions some years ago and if IPCC is to remain credible, those predictions need to be accountable.

In a nutshell, in 2001, I put my reputation on the line and published my predictions for entering a global cooling cycle about 2007 (plus or minus 3-5 years), based on past glacial, ice core, and other data. As right now, my prediction seems to be right on target and what we would expect from the past climatic record, but the IPCC prediction is getting farther and farther off the mark.

With the apparent solar cooling cycle upon us, we have a ready explanation for global warming and cooling. If the present cooling trend continues, the IPCC reports will have been the biggest farce in the history of science. Anyway, I wanted to provide you with real data to substantiate the concept that we have entered a period of real global cooling, not just a cold winter.


A very recent Journal abstract below speaks for itself:

Use of U.S. Croplands for Biofuels Increases Greenhouse Gases Through Emissions from Land-Use Change

By: Timothy Searchinger et al.

Most prior studies have found that substituting biofuels for gasoline will reduce greenhouse gases because biofuels sequester carbon through the growth of the feedstock. These analyses have failed to count the carbon emissions that occur as farmers worldwide respond to higher prices and convert forest and grassland to new cropland to replace the grain (or cropland) diverted to biofuels. By using a worldwide agricultural model to estimate emissions from land-use change, we found that corn-based ethanol, instead of producing a 20% savings, nearly doubles greenhouse emissions over 30 years and increases greenhouse gases for 167 years. Biofuels from switchgrass, if grown on U.S. corn lands, increase emissions by 50%. This result raises concerns about large biofuel mandates and highlights the value of using waste products.

Science 29 February 2008: Vol. 319. no. 5867, pp. 1238 - 1240

Snow disaster leaves 1.6 mln people frostbitten in NW China province

Severe snow disasters have left 1.65 million people snowblind and frostbitten, 500,000 livestock and wildlife dead and 3.1 million others on verge of starvation in Tibetan prefectures of northwestern Qinghai Province. Since October last year, consecutive low temperature had gripped the province. The temperature plunged to minus 36.3 degrees centigrade, the record lowest in January in the province, said the provincial meteorological bureau.

In Yushu, Guoluo and Huangnan Tibet Autonomous Prefectures, most of the grassland was covered by snow, usually 16 to 32 cm thick, which had brought great losses to local animal husbandry.

In the disaster-stricken prefectures, 130,000 people had run out of fuels, 350,000 people in need of food and 110,000 others short of warm clothes or quilts, said the provincial government. Currently, the province's task was to evacuate 11,000 people of 2,000 herdsmen households for the local conditions were not fit to live any longer. Qinghai has allocated 16.85 million yuan for disaster relief but still in shortage of 134 million yuan.

Winter storms have also plagued southern China since mid-January, leading to widespread traffic jams, structural collapses, blackouts and crop losses in 19 provinces, leaving 129 people dead and causing 151.65 billion yuan of losses, according to the Ministry of Civil Affairs.


Something else that is not in the "models"

Claiming to model earth's climate in our present state of ignorance about it is a vast conceit

CHICAGO: Biological organisms play a significant role in the formation of rain and snow, according to a study released yesterday by the journal Science. The discovery of these organisms and their importance in the water cycle could help researchers improve climate forecasts and better understand the relationship between the biosphere and climate, the authors concluded. They could also be used to bring rain to dry areas, said lead author Brent Christner of Louisiana State University.

Scientists have long known that the ice crystals in clouds that become rain or snow need to cling to some kind of particle, called ice nucleators, in order to form in temperatures above -40C. But they did not realise, until now, that the most active particles involved in this process were living ones, Dr Christner said. "Every snow and ice sample we've looked at, we found biological ice nucleators," he said. "Here's a component that has been completely ignored to date."

Biological ice nucleators were discovered about 40 years ago by researchers trying to determine why only some plants were damaged by frost. They discovered that the plants that froze were covered in bacterial plant pathogens that are able to capture moisture in the air and turn it into ice at temperatures as warm as -2C.

Ice nucleators such as dust and soot can capture and freeze the moisture only at temperatures below -10C.


Europe mandates wasteful fuel use by cars

So much for energy-saving!

Motorists will be hit by up to 160 British pounds more in fuel costs because of a "ludicrous" European directive forcing them to drive with their lights on all day. Campaigners say the new rules will make the roads more dangerous for motorcyclists and will lead to more deaths. Britain opposed the measure but was unable to block it because a majority of other EU nations were in favour.

Transport Minister Jim Fitzpatrick admitted this week that the rules, which will come into force in 2011 and relate to new cars, would lead to annual fuel consumption rising by 5 per cent. According to AA figures, for the average family-sized car, driving the average 8,770 miles a year, this would increase fuel costs by 68 pounds a year at today's prices. That is based on a car doing 31 miles per gallon. But some models do only 13mpg, meaning the increase could be as much as 160 a year. Heavy goods vehicles would see costs shoot up by 260 a year, based on the average 8.1mpg rate.

Campaigners say the ruling, which will be in force from Lapland in the north to Cyprus in the south, will harm the environment by wasting fuel. Britain opposed the directive but was unable to prevent European transport ministers approving it, because transport measures do not require unanimous backing by EU member states. Daytime-running lights were made compulsory in Scandinavian countries in the late 1970s - which is why Swedish-built Volvos always have their lights on. In 2006, Austria, Croatia and the Czech Republic became the first countries outside northern Europe to follow suit. Daytime lights are now used in 14 states. A study by Dutch researchers found they could save 5,500 deaths and 155,000 injuries across Europe.

Greg Knight, Tory MP for East Yorkshire, said: "This idea was being pushed by Scandinavian countries and it's absolutely ludicrous that it should be imposed in a blanket fashion across Europe. "The UK does not suffer from the short hours of daylight as in northern Europe, and places like Spain certainly don't. All the green groups are worried about the environment - surely this will make it worse. "There are also fears it will harm road safety."

The proposal was opposed by Stephen Ladyman, who was transport minister during earlier discussions on it in Europe. Last night Mr Ladyman, who is now a backbencher, said: "This directive will kill a lot of motorcyclists. They use daytime lights to make them easier to see, but if cars are using them as well, motorbikes will just blur into the background. "This is only being brought in because Germany and Austria don't want to have proper speed limits on autobahns, so they think this will be a good road safety measure."

It had been feared that all cars would be covered by the rules, meaning that those not fitted with daytime running lamps would have had to drive around with dipped headlights. But European ministers backed off from this proposal. Edmund King, president of the AA, said: "Daytime-running lights offer a significant safety advantage, particularly for pedestrians trying to spot moving cars through a line of parked vehicles. "However, motorcyclists are very worried that other motorists will no longer be able to pick them out from other traffic.

"The extra carbon dioxide emissions from all cars having to turn on their headlights during the day was a major concern when daytime-running lights were first suggested in Europe. "However, that threat has been diminished by restricting the measure to new cars only, many of which have energy-saving LED lights for driving in daylight."


A Total Crock of Doo-Doo!

A few weeks back I noted in my column that when times get tough, Americans will stop worrying about whether polar bears have enough ice and start asking whether those white, furry critters are edible. That comment caused quite a stir, and I would like to thank everyone, in particular the folks from Alaska, for the great recipes they forwarded-"Bear Claw Cordon Bleu" for instance.

A smaller number of folks were offended by my bear remarks. They considered them a veiled swipe at their fellow global warming zealots. My only regret is that they thought my swipe was . . . veiled. I guess I should have taken a cue from General Motors Vice Chairman Bob Lutz who recently told a group of reporters that, in his opinion, global warming is a "total crock of ****." Nothing veiled about that.

And, despite efforts by the climate change mob to silence Mr. Lutz, the man from Detroit refused to back down. News coverage of Mr. Lutz's politically incorrect "crock-of-doo-doo" declaration caused me to wonder just how many American business executives harbor the same opinion about global warming, but are too cowardly to utter the words in public? How many parrot the environmental slogans du jour and spout platitudes about corporate social responsibility because they would rather appease the activists than fight to protect their companies and shareholders from the scourge of eco-socialism?

I will be keen to watch these corporate Neville Chamberlains squirm when man-made global warming takes its place in the Guinness Book of World Records under the category "Biggest Fraud Perpetrated on Mankind." The squirming may commence sooner than later. Apparently Mother Nature hasn't been influenced by the "we're-all-going-to-fry" doomsayers. According to a column published this week in Canada's National Post,

* Snow cover over North America, much of Siberia, Mongolia and China is greater than at any time since 1966;

* The average temperature in January was -0.3 F cooler than the 1901-2000 (20th century) average;

* China is surviving its most brutal winter in a century;

* The Artic Sea ice that had melted to its lowest levels on record . . . is back and, according to the Canadian Ice Service, "is actually 10 to 20 cm thicker in many places than at this time last year;"

* Respected scientists from Canada and Russia are now predicting a long period of severely cold weather if sunspot activity does not pick up soon.

The author of the National Post column, Lorne Gunter, noted, "It would be premature to claim an Ice Age is looming just because we have had one of our most brutal winters in decades. But if environmentalists and environmental reporters can run around shrieking about the manmade destruction of the natural order every time a robin shows up on Georgian Bay two weeks early, then it is at least fair game to use this winter's weather stories to wonder whether the alarmists are being a tad premature."

The alarmists are likely to become really alarmed when they read about the International Conference On Climate Change that will begin deliberations in New York City tomorrow. More than 400 scientists, economists and experts are scheduled to attend the three-day event organized by the Heartland Institute for the purpose of challenging the claim that global warming is a "crisis." According to the sponsors, some 19,000 American scientists have signed a petition saying global warming is probably natural and not a crisis-so much for the often touted consensus that the global warming lobby keeps yapping about.

It's time for some business group to create a petition for skeptical corporate executives to sign if they question the validity of manmade global warming. The petition could be called the Crock of Doo-Doo Declaration in honor of Bob Lutz. I would bet good money that someday signatories to the petition will be hailed as business leaders who had the intestinal fortitude to stand up to the eco-evangelists and reject their sermon that to save the planet the economy must be destroyed.

If the global warming juggernaut isn't sidetracked soon, I fear we will all be feasting on Bear Claw Cordon Bleu.



For more postings from me, see TONGUE-TIED, EDUCATION WATCH INTERNATIONAL, POLITICAL CORRECTNESS WATCH, FOOD & HEALTH SKEPTIC, GUN WATCH, SOCIALIZED MEDICINE, AUSTRALIAN POLITICS, DISSECTING LEFTISM, IMMIGRATION WATCH INTERNATIONAL and EYE ON BRITAIN. My Home Pages are here or here or here. Email me (John Ray) here. For times when blogger.com is playing up, there are mirrors of this site here and here.


1 comment:

Anonymous said...

"If the global warming juggernaut isn't sidetracked soon, I fear we will all be feasting on Bear Claw Cordon Bleu."

You may not be aware, but one of the major economic specialties on American Indian Reservations (besides casinos) is silverworked jewelry. I'm not sure American Indians even invented the wheel or the number zero, back in the day, but they have their gas welders now. And besides red coral and blue turquoise, up to four black bear claws are standard issue "set jewels" in $400 belt buckles.

About Coron Blue, the conference which is just down the street from me cost $300 a head just to attend (twice that if you want to attend the dinners). This must keep out hoards of idle student protesters but I'm not spending my romance money on a few talking heads when I could spend it instead on a bear claw buckle!