Saturday, February 25, 2006


But cooling is a sign of warming, of course. I reproduce below the popular summary as given in "Science" magazine and follow that by the journal Abstract

Observations reveal that the substantial cooling of the global lower stratosphere over 1979-2003 occurred in two pronounced steplike transitions. These arose in the aftermath of two major volcanic eruptions, with each cooling transition being followed by a period of relatively steady temperatures. Climate model simulations indicate that the space-time structure of the observed cooling is largely attributable to the combined effect of changes in both anthropogenic factors (ozone depletion and increases in well-mixed greenhouse gases) and natural factors (solar irradiance variation and volcanic aerosols). The anthropogenic factors drove the overall cooling during the period, and the natural ones modulated the evolution of the cooling.


Anthropogenic and Natural Influences in the Evolution of Lower Stratospheric Cooling

V. Ramaswamy, M. D. Schwarzkopf, W. J. Randel, B. D. Santer, B. J. Soden, G. L. Stenchikov

Since 1980, the lower stratosphere has cooled significantly. This cooling trend has been ascribed to the influence of anthropogenic effects--mainly stratospheric ozone depletion and the buildup of greenhouse gases. However, this process occurred in two major steps. Ramaswamy et al. (p. 1138) investigated the temporal structure of the trend using simulations with a climate model, in order to delineate the roles of natural and anthropogenic forcings. Although the overall downward trend in temperature is the result of anthropogenic factors, natural forcing by changes in solar irradiance and volcanic aerosols have superimposed on the gradual longer term decrease the shorter time-scale structure recorded in the observations. Thus, while anthropogenic factors are responsible for the 25-year-long stratospheric cooling trend, the steps were caused by natural forcing.

From: "Science" 24 February 2006: Vol. 311. no. 5764, pp. 1138 - 1141 DOI: 10.1126/science.1122587


Global warming of course warms the oceans up and thus produces more evaporation -- which comes down again as rain or snow (precipitation). Global cooling, of course, reduces precipitation. So which are we seeing? The latest news from the U.K. below:

Hosepipe bans must be ordered within weeks to avoid the threat of standpipes and rationing this summer, the head of the Environment Agency said yesterday. Despite steady rainfall during the past fortnight the South East is facing its worst water shortages since the drought of 1976. Over the past 15 months rainfall has been below average for virtually the whole of England and Wales with southern and central regions being the driest. The position has been worsened by the fifth-driest winter since 1964, with the whole of Britain receiving below-average rainfall, and rivers and water tables are now at alarmingly low levels.

Baroness Young of Old Scone, the chief executive of the agency, said that the South East was facing its worst drought in a century and water shortages would be seen across England and Wales. The threat, she said, was so severe that hosepipe bans must be ordered by water companies by the end of next month or householders would face the prospect of having to queue at standpipes for water as they had done in 1976.

Lady Young also called for all non-essential water use, including washing windows, cleaning cars and watering gardens, to be banned. “If water companies delay introducing hosepipe bans now, extreme steps to manage water supplies over summer may be needed, such as standpipes and rota cuts,” she said. “We’re in a serious situation now, where both the environment and our water supplies are at risk. Water companies shouldn’t just hope for rain – they must act now in case the weather stays dry.” Water rationing, with supplies cut off for several hours at a time, may also be required unless rainfall levels for the next three months rise to 20 per cent above average.

The Met Office, cautioning that long-range rain forecasts were unreliable, said yesterday that there was only a one in five chance of there being sufficient rain to bring water levels back to normal by the end of spring. Kent and Sussex are likely to see the worst shortages with Southern Water and Mid Kent Water already having sprinkler and hosepipe bans in place. Further restrictions being considered include limiting crop irrigation. London, the Thames Valley, East Anglia and South Coast counties face bans on non- essential uses of water in homes and businesses, including crop watering, and localised shortages are expected to cause environmental damage in the rest of England and Wales. Plants and animals are expected to suffer with drought causing heathland, grass and forest fires, and many species, including birch and beech trees, being killed through dehydration.

The agency plans to introduce closer monitoring of water companies to ensure that they do eveything to minimise the impact of drought, including the reduction of leakage from pipes. Britain has endured long, hot summers in recent years — most notably in 2003, when much of Europe suffered water shortages



An environmentalist faces federal charges of teaching others how to start an arson fire during a 2003 lecture in San Diego, where the costliest act of ecoterrorism in U.S. history had just occurred. In an indictment unsealed Wednesday, prosecutors said Rodney A. Coronado gave the lecture 15 hours after a $50 million fire destroyed a massive apartment complex in a north San Diego neighborhood. The indictment, however, does not link Coronado to that fire. Coronado, 39, was arrested Wednesday in Tucson, Ariz., on a charge of distribution of information relating to explosives, destructive devices and weapons of mass destruction. He will be arraigned there Thursday. Defense attorney R. Antonio Felix of Tucson, Ariz., did not return a message left seeking comment.

Coronado previously served four years in federal prison for a 1992 blaze at a Michigan animal research facility. Daniel Dzwilewski, special agent in charge of the San Diego FBI office, alleged that Coronado was a national leader of the radical Earth Liberation Front. ELF is an underground movement with no public leadership, membership or spokesperson, according to its Web site. An e-mail sent to the Web site didn't elicit an immediate response.

The 2003 fire destroyed a five-story, 206-unit apartment complex, an underground parking garage and a construction crane in the University City area of San Diego. No one was injured. A 12-foot banner found at the scene read "If you build it, we will burn it" with the initials of the ELF. The group, which only communicates with the news media by e-mail, issued a brief statement in response to media inquiries, saying the banner "is a legitimate claim of responsibility by the Earth Liberation Front."

Coronado's subsequent talk covered animal rights and militant environmental activism. According to an account and photos of the speech posted on the Internet, Coronado demonstrated how to build a crude ignition device using a plastic jug filled with gasoline and oil. Three animal rights activists who attended the lecture were ordered jailed for contempt for their refusal to testify before a grand jury investigating the fire.

While he repeatedly insisted that he had no role in the arson, Coronado has said he sympathized with the arsonists. Describing himself as an unofficial ELF spokesman, Coronado told The Associated Press at the time that young activists are "doing the only thing they know to do and that is strike a match and draw a whole lot of attention to their dissatisfaction with protecting the environment."

Authorities said the charge on which Coronado was indicted has only been used four times since it was written in 1997, most recently in an Ohio case unsealed Tuesday against three men charged with attempting to wage terror attacks against the United States. The charge carries a maximum penalty of 20 years in prison.

Coronado was previously sentenced to nearly five years in prison for a crime in which he said he did not participate: the 1992 firebombing of a Michigan State University laboratory and the offices of two animal researchers that caused $1.2 million in damage.

In December, a federal jury in Tucson, Ariz., convicted Coronado of illegally entering the Sabino Canyon Recreation Area to interfere with efforts to trap and relocate mountain lions following public sightings. He faces up to 7 1/2 years in prison when he's sentenced in March. That indictment called Coronado a member of Earth First!, perhaps best known for forest protests aimed at halting logging.



But Greenies are stranger than fiction

"The next time you reach for bottled water stacked on the supermarket shelf, spare a thought for the planet. You may think that it is better for you to buy such water, but better for the environment it certainly is not.

Despite its pure image, bottled water is making a significant contribution to climate change. The industry produces as much greenhouse gas as the electricity consumption of about 20,000 homes in a year, according to research by The Times.

To supply the more than two billion litres of bottled water that is consumed by Britons every year, a quarter of which comes from abroad, bottled-water companies produce 33,200 tonnes of CO2 emissions, just less than the electricity consumption of 20,000 households, and the equivalent of the energy needs of 6,000 households.

The principal environmental cost comes from transport - about a fifth of bottles come from southeast France, about 600 miles (1,000km) away - but there are also costs involved in the manufacture and disposal of bottles. Evian transports its water about 930km from Lake Geneva, producing about 14,000 tonnes of CO2 in the process. Volvic, whose water comes from Auvergne, produces about 9,000 tonnes.

British suppliers, with smaller distances to travel, are less environmentally costly. Highland Spring, whose plant is in Blackford, Perthshire, produces about 5,500 tonnes each year, while Powwow produces an estimated 3,000 tonnes.

Most water bottles are made from PET plastic, a crude-oil extract that accounts for about 0.25 per cent of the world's annual oil consumption. The majority end up in landfill sites, where they take about 450 years to break down, or are incinerated. Of the 10 per cent of bottles that are recycled, more than half are shipped to countries such as China, 13,000km away, to be processed, and produce around half a million kilos of CO2 emissions getting there...."

Excerpt from "The Times". Tim Worstall has certainly had some fun with it.


Many people would like to be kind to others so Leftists exploit that with their nonsense about equality. Most people want a clean, green environment so Greenies exploit that by inventing all sorts of far-fetched threats to the environment. But for both, the real motive is to promote themselves as wiser and better than everyone else, truth regardless.

Global warming has taken the place of Communism as an absurdity that "liberals" will defend to the death regardless of the evidence showing its folly. Evidence never has mattered to real Leftists

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