Monday, June 10, 2024
Thanks To Wind And Solar, Texas’ Power Grid Risks Blackouts Again This Summer
No spare capacity
A power grid system serving nearly 30 million Americans could again approach failure this summer, a local utility executive told the San Antonio Express-News. [emphasis, links added]
Rudy Garza, CEO of the San Antonio-owned utility company CPS Energy, anticipates that Texans will elevate power demand on the state’s grid system above and beyond last year’s record numbers, according to the Express-News.
The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), the state’s power system manager, had to issue several energy rationing alerts last summer as the state’s grid nearly faltered, and those conservation appeals are likely to be made again throughout this summer.
“I have learned in this business that it’s hard to make guarantees on anything,” Garza told the outlet. “If we lose a big nuclear unit, for instance, in the middle of a peak season, that could be enough to throw the grid off into some level of emergency. All we can do is prepare and keep our plants going.”
Garza predicts that Texans will exceed 100,000 megawatts of demand this summer, a level of power use that would be more than 15,000 megawatts greater than last summer’s record-setting demand, according to the Express-News.
Major factors driving demand in Texas include a growing population, a hot economy, cryptocurrency mining operations, and new power-hungry data centers.
“We’re building houses in every direction,” Garza told the Express-News. “We’ve seen an influx of some really large users coming into Texas, but they’re not driving the entirety of it. The state just continues to grow.”
Texas produces the most energy from wind and solar of any state in the country, according to Texas Monthly.
This leaves the ERCOT grid vulnerable to supply shortfalls in specific circumstances, especially the late afternoon and early evening hours of hot summer days with little or no wind blowing, according to the Express-News.
In those circumstances, power generation tails off right when Texans are driving up demand by cranking up their air conditioners and other appliances to stay cool in their homes, according to the Express-News.
To compensate for lost wind capacity in those situations, operators turn to older coal- and natural-gas-fired generation facilities to avoid blackouts.
A similar situation played out in the summer of 2023 when a prolonged heat wave pushed the grid to the brink and prompted ERCOT — which oversees the flow of power to approximately 27 million customers — to briefly issue an emergency notice on Sept. 6, according to the Express-News.
ERCOT put out a record [total] of 11 conservation appeals last summer, and the North American Energy Reliability Corporation (NERC) — an organization that monitors grid conditions in the U.S. — flagged ERCOT in a recently published outlook report for facing “elevated” blackout risks this summer if weather conditions are stronger than normal.
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Virginia Gov. Youngkin Announces California EV Mandate to End in the Commonwealth
On June 5, Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) revealed that the state would cease to adhere to vehicle emission standards set by the California Air Resources Board (CARB) and will revert to less strict federal standards beginning in 2025.
Legislation previously signed into law by Gov. Ralph Northam (D) in 2021, required Virginia to adopt CARB’s then-existing standards, Advanced Clean Cars (ACC) I, which had been adopted by 13 other states and the District of Columbia. Subsequently, CARB released new standards, ACC II, requiring all new cars sold in California to be electric by model year 2035.
Youngkin requested an opinion from state Attorney General Jason Miyares as to whether Virginia was bound to comply with ACCII. Miyares issued an official opinion on June 4 confirming that state law does not require Virginia to follow the updated standards.
‘Virginia Is Declaring Independence’
With the AG’s opinion in hand, Youngkin announced that Virginians will once again have the freedom to choose their own vehicles based on their families’ and businesses’ needs, in a press release.
“Once again, Virginia is declaring independence—this time from a misguided electric vehicle mandate imposed by unelected leaders nearly 3,000 miles away from the Commonwealth,” said Youngkin. “The idea that government should tell people what kind of car they can or can’t purchase is fundamentally wrong.”
The federal Clean Air Act includes a waiver for emissions standards adopted by CARB, which other states can choose to follow in lieu of the national standards.
‘EV Mandates Are … Unworkable’
The Virginia Air Pollution Control Board (Board) implemented Virginia’s law adopting the CARB standards with regulations permitting the governor to order them, but it did not require the state to adopt any updated standards, Miyares’ opinion states.
“Although the Board chose to adopt ACC I’s model year standards, which are now set to expire at the end of 2024, it has not chosen to adopt ACC II’s,” Miyares wrote.
The ACC II standards require 35 percent of cars sold beginning in model year 2026, less than two years away, to be electric. Youngkin’s press release pointed out that in 2023 only 9 percent of vehicles sold in Virginia were electric. That means the state would have to more than triple current EV sales in two years to remain in compliance with CARB’s new rules.
These kinds of mandates are wishful thinking and are about control more than they are reasonable, said Miyares in the press release.
“EV mandates like California’s are unworkable and out of touch with reality, and thankfully the law does not bind us to their regulations,” Miyares said. “California does not control which cars Virginians buy and any thoughts that automobile manufacturers should face millions of dollars in civil penalties rather than allowing our citizens to choose their own vehicles is completely absurd.”
Were ACC II followed in Virginia, auto manufacturers that sold a noncompliant vehicle past the 2035 deadline could be forced to pay fines of more than $20,000 per vehicle, which could be devastating for car dealers and consumers.
Legal Challenges and the Road Ahead
Miyares’ opinion states that the Board could choose to adopt ACC II’s standards, in which case compliance would be mandatory; however, the board is not required to do so.
The first set of standards should never have been mandated in the first place, says H. Sterling Burnett, Ph.D., director of the Arthur B. Robinson Center on Climate and Environmental Policy at The Heartland Institute.
“Let’s hope this decision sticks and holds up in court and in the face of legislative challenges I expect to come,” Burnett said. “The previous democratic administration never should have forced California’s emission standards/EV mandates down the throats of VA residents and drivers.”
Other states that adopted California’s standards include most of New England, with the exception of Vermont, in addition to Colorado, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, and Washington. Now that Virginia is exiting the plan, one hopes others will follow, says Burnett.
“It’s good that the VA government is getting out of the business of dictating people’s vehicle choices; consumers alone should choose what they want to drive based on the characteristics they care about,” Burnett said. “Let’s hope other states follow suit and that sometime in the future California’s waiver will be withdrawn so it can no longer dictate to the nation its car fleet.”
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On Extreme Weather, the More We Learn, the More We Know How Little We Knew Before (and Still Don’t Know)
In contrast to many climate scientists and writers with the mainstream media covering climate change, who in their hubris claim the science is settled, Albert Einstein expressed modesty with regard to his knowledge, reportedly saying, “The more I learn, the more I realize how much I don’t know.”
Eistein, a genius by any measure, was not the first to express such wisdom. Socrates, nearly 2,400 years ago, reputedly stated, “The only true wisdom is in knowing you know nothing,” and Aristotle expressed a similar sentiment, saying, “The only true wisdom is in knowing you know nothing.” Would that contemporary climate researchers displayed such a cautious, honest assessment of the state of knowledge in their field about the causes and consequences of contemporary climate change—but they rarely do.
Still, research comes out daily suggesting that far more remains unknown about climate change and the extent to which it drives extreme weather than is known by climate scientists and their journalist sycophants, and is assumed, and built into, climate models. Two recent studies provide examples showing this.
One recent study, published in the peer-reviewed journal Geophysical Research Letters, examines the correlations of tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the Atlantic and Pacific hurricane basins to multi-decadal variations in sea-surface temperatures tied to shifts in Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV). In analyzing two sets of climate model simulations, adding and subtracting AMV anomalies, researchers found the Atlantic and Pacific respond differently to warm AMV phases, which produce warmer temperatures:
Relative to cold or negative AMV anomalies, a warm AMV:
produces much more frequent TCs (including those making landfalls) over the North Atlantic. This is because AMV+ offers favorable conditions for TC development, including warmer SSTs, higher relative humidity, increased relative vorticity, and weaker vertical wind shear.
By contrast, AMV+ causes less frequent TCs across the western North Pacific and South Pacific due to unfavorable conditions for TC occurrence (stronger vertical wind shear and less moist air). The contrasts in TC environment are due to increased zonal flow between the Atlantic and Pacific basins with AMV+.
What they didn’t find to be a factor in hurricane strength or formation was long-term global climate change. Rather, climate models suggest shifts in the Atlantic Ocean current oscillations are the forcing factor for tropical cyclones, or their absence. This study lends credence to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) most recent AR6 physical science report, which confirms that there is no detection or attribution of any trend for either the number or strength of tropical cyclones tied to climate change.
The IPCC’s assessment suggested that even under the most extreme emission scenarios, it could find no evidence climate change had or would affect tropical cyclones through 2100.
Despite the IPCC’s clear statements and the findings in this new research, I’d bet money that this year when tropical storms and hurricanes form, especially when one or the other makes landfall and causes damage, mainstream media outlets will publish stories claiming climate change is to blame, citing “studies” from bogus climate science outfits like World Weather Attribution as evidence supporting their claim.
And, of course, hurricanes are only one type of extreme weather event we are only beginning to understand, and, as a result, show how little we know about their formation and cause. Tornados are another such type of event.
Every year, some scientists and reporters in the mainstream media try to tie climate change to the frequency or strength of tornados. Climate Realism has debunked such claims on dozens of occasions, citing research demonstrating there is no trend in increasing numbers or strength of hurricanes. Now the UPI is reporting the same fact.
One recent article published by UPI noted that no EF5 tornado, “one of the most catastrophic weather events on Earth … [which can] grow to be more than a mile wide and pack winds over 200 mph—stronger than any Category 5 hurricane on record across the Atlantic basin,” has struck the United States in more than 11 years—the longest such EF5 drought since consistent records have been maintained. And this is despite billions of additional tons of carbon dioxide being emitted into the atmosphere over that 13-year period. Commenting on this blessed severe tornado drought, UPI writes:
On May 20, 2013, an extremely powerful tornado destroyed a huge part of Moore, Okla. Eleven years later, it remains the most recent tornado to be rated EF5, the strongest possible rating on the Enhanced Fujita Scale. The 11-year gap is the longest since official U.S. records began in 1950.
Before the Moore tornado, the blockbuster tornado season in 2011 led to the confirmation of five EF5 twisters, including the Joplin, Missouri, EF5 that killed 161 people. A total of 50 tornadoes have been rated F5/EF5 since records began in the United States in 1950.
Meteorologist Bob Henson said in 2023 that the current EF5 “drought” is hard to explain since damage estimates can be subjective. Damage to a “well-constructed building” is the most common factor that helps the National Weather Service (NWS) confirm an EF5, yet many homes in the U.S. do not meet that criteria.
During this busy tornado season, think back to how many stories you’ve already seen that mentioned climate change as a factor—modifying their timing, number, behavior, and power. Then, remember mainstream media column inches and broadcast air-time to the contrary, there is no evidence whatsoever that climate change has, will, or can, even in climate models, impact tornados.
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The anti-windfarm 'odd couple' joining forces to fight the renewable energy projects Australia's already failing to build
Deep in coal country, a lifelong environmentalist and one-time Greens candidate is feeling the applause.
It's Thursday night at a Gladstone pub and Steven Nowakowski has won over sceptical locals.
His message is a simple one; he believes a wave of new windfarm developments threatens to smash hilltops and turn koala habitat into "industrial zones".
The green movement, he says, are in "la-la land" over windfarms, a comment that draws nods and knowing smiles from the audience.
Nowakowski won over much of the crowd at the Central Queensland community meeting.(Four Corners: Nick Wiggins)
But its only when one local suggests building a new coal-fired power station does the crowd erupt in spontaneous applause.
This is the front line of Australia's latest climate war.
Nowakowski, a nature lover who says he's been arrested fighting for forests, shares the stage with ultra-conservative federal MP Colin Boyce, a man who claims burning fossil fuels creates "plant food".
"We're an odd couple," Nowakowski admits. "I shake my head in disbelief. I cannot believe that I'm in this situation."
It's an alliance at the more extreme end of the political spectrum. But it's being replicated right across the country as vocal groups mobilise to frustrate Australia's already slow rollout of renewables.
It's estimated Australia needs to build one new wind turbine every day for the next six years to reach its 2030 emissions target. But it's a target that's proving difficult, and the next leg towards net zero by 2050 is even more challenging.
"Wind's a really important source of new electricity generation," says Simon Corbell, who's just stepped down as CEO of the Clean Energy Investor Group.
Wind, he says, is not only one of the cheapest forms of new electricity generation, but it complements solar as the wind often picks up as the sun goes down.
It's a fact that appears to hold little sway with the growing number of community groups opposed to windfarms.
At Gladstone's Grand Hotel, Nowakowski enlists a few more opponents.
He argues Queensland's streamlined approvals process will further erode koala habitat, bird sanctuaries and the states' last remaining wild places.
"We're going down the wrong path," he says. "We can't destroy biodiversity to save the planet."
But as his presentation wraps up and the acclamation grows, Nowakowski shuffles awkwardly and looks towards the carpet.
There's a hint that his anti-windfarm pitch may be providing cover for those wishing to halt action on climate change.
An audience member urges Steven to look into whether there really is a link between carbon dioxide and changes in the climate.
"I'm just saying we could be on this whole train to nowhere for no reason at all," the man says.
Nowakowski allows the comment to remain unchallenged, saying he's "not going to talk about climate change", but does later concede it is a concern.
"I've got to grapple with this every day," he says.
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My other blogs. Main ones below
http://dissectleft.blogspot.com (DISSECTING LEFTISM )
http://edwatch.blogspot.com (EDUCATION WATCH)
http://pcwatch.blogspot.com (POLITICAL CORRECTNESS WATCH)
http://australian-politics.blogspot.com (AUSTRALIAN POLITICS)
http://snorphty.blogspot.com/ (TONGUE-TIED)
https://immigwatch.blogspot.com (IMMIGRATION WATCH)
https://awesternheart.blogspot.com (THE PSYCHOLOGIST)
http://jonjayray.com/blogall.html More blogs
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