The State of the Climate 2023

In his annual review of the state of the global climate, Professor Ole Humlum reviews last year’s key data and observations in the context of long-term climate trends.

The review covers a wide range of temperature measurements in both ocean and atmosphere, alongside reviews of oceanic oscillations, sea level, snow and ice measurements and storms.

Professor Humlum draws attention to two oceanographic events that are likely to have driven up global temperatures in 2023:

“While global average surface air temperatures in 2023 were at record highs relative to long instrumental records (since 1850), they were driven up as a result of the still ongoing El Niño warming episode. In contrast, the two previous years, 2021 and 2022, were influenced by a cold La Niña in the Pacific Ocean. Thus the global surface air temperature record in 2023 continues to be significantly influenced by oceanographic phenomena.”

The influence of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai eruption on 2023 meteorological conditions is still uncertain. The eruption, which occurred in the southern Pacific Ocean in January 2022, released an enormous plume of water vapour into the Stratosphere, but there is still uncertainty whether this event had any influence on atmospheric temperatures.

Professor Humlum said:

“The global climate system represents a multifaceted system, involving sun, planets, atmosphere, oceans, land, geological processes, biological life, and complex interactions between them. Many components and their mutual coupling are still not fully understood or perhaps not even recognised.

Believing that one minor constituent of the atmosphere (CO2) controls nearly all aspects of climate is naïve and entirely unrealistic. The global climate has remained in a quasi-stable condition within certain limits for millions of years, although with important variations playing out over periods ranging from years to centuries, or more, but the global climate has never been in a fully stable state without change. Modern observations show that this normal behaviour is also characterising recent years, including 2023, and there is no observational evidence for any global climate crisis.”

https://mailchi.mp/82c3fc2cd96c/the-state-of-the-climate-201516?e=cc88839e92

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Joel Kotkin: Joe Biden’s climate plan is a threat to democracy

In the future, people could find themselves in violation of the law if, for example, their cars report too much mileage, while their energy use will be both closely monitored and rationed. Such policies would require a permanent mobilisation of executive power, making democracy necessary roadkill on the road to an imagined green utopia.

For a policy that requires sacrifice, at least for the masses, the climate agenda lacks one critical element: public support. Even in ultra-green Europe, there is a growing resistance among politicians and the public towards extreme climate policies. In America, too, climate scepticism is growing. Given that Joe Biden rolled out new pollution standards for non-electric cars last week, this public shift should provide discomfort among the Democratic establishment.

While most Americans concede that climate change is real, it’s not much of a priority: only 2% rate it as their major concern, according to Gallup, well below the figures for immigration, inflation, government competence and reducing poverty. These sentiments are even more pronounced among working-class voters: even as the Biden administration expends hundreds of billions in taxpayer funds to ‘green projects’, the average American doesn’t want to spend more than $2.50 a week to combat climate change.

Now, instead of mobilising the masses, the climate lobby increasingly rejects the idea of popular consent. In the EU, the US and individual states such as California, vague legislative goals are left to ‘experts’ for implementation. Aware they are unlikely to get public backing for such things as electric car mandates, consistently higher energy prices or the removal of gas stoves, the climate lobby seeks to employ the bureaucracy — in concert with academics and nonprofits — to impose policies which lack public support.

Some climate activists see the Covid-19 lockdowns as a ‘dry run’ for future action. Officials at the United Nations endorse this concept, embracing the pandemic as a ‘fire drill’ for what must happen to meet climate goals.

But perhaps the more relevant model may be that of the ‘corporate state’, most associated with the fascist regime of Benito Mussolini. Some might see Donald Trump as the poor man’s Il Duce, but the powerful alliance of the executive branch with a handful of ultra-rich, ultra-powerful companies is more reminiscent of the corporate state.

In 2020, Biden raised record sums from the corporate elite, notably the tech oligarchs and their Wall Street allies. This year will likely bring unprecedented financial support from these same players to the President’s campaign. This interplay between big corporate interests and activist bureaucracies now constitutes what Bjørn Lomborg has labelled the ‘climate-industrial complex’.

Once re-elected, Biden (or his advisers) may try to push this agenda without much concern for public opinion. He could implement what Eric Heymann, a senior executive at Deutsche Bank, calls ‘a certain degree of eco-dictatorship’. This reflects a change in elite opinion towards what two German observers describe as a ‘political ideology that questions the foundations of pluralism and democracy’, and which instead favours a post-national ‘politics of identity and minority entitlements’ and a global green regime.

To achieve their goal, climate activists can employ technological weapons not available to Mussolini in his failed efforts to get Italians in line with his appetite for war. Already some websites censor or discredit even the most credentialed and moderate climate sceptics, who question the climate change narrative much as they did during the pandemic. Climate activists, funded by billionaires, are even pressuring television stations to censor ads criticising Biden’s electric car mandate.

In the future, people could find themselves in violation of the law if, for example, their cars report too much mileage, while their energy use will be both closely monitored and rationed. Such policies would require a permanent mobilisation of executive power, making democracy necessary roadkill on the road to an imagined green utopia.

https://unherd.com/newsroom/joe-bidens-climate-plan-is-a-threat-to-democracy/

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UK: The smart meters scandal is about to explode

It would not be much of a surprise if Ed Miliband, as energy minister, introduces some form of energy rationing

The technology doesn’t work as planned. The numbers don’t add up. And ordinary people may have their lives ruined by a system that barely even recognises they exist. If ITV is looking for a follow-up to it’s hit drama about the Post Office scandal its producers and script writers do not have to look very far. It is playing out in real-time right now. In reality, the smart meter fiasco risks turning into the next Horizon scandal.

Like so many government-backed technologies, it was sold as a way of making the system more efficient, with the added benefit of helping us hit our net zero targets. Smart meters installed in our homes would give us more accurate readings of how much electricity we were using, while the little monitors in the corner might gently nudge us towards consuming a little less (which would be helpful, given that the Government has woefully failed to make sure we have enough power to keep the lights switched on).

What’s not to like about that?

Well, quite a lot as it turns out. According to the latest figures from the Department for Energy, Security and Net Zero, of the 30 million meters installed in British homes, almost four million are not working properly. The estimate was 2.7 million in June last year, but has now been revised dramatically upwards.

The results of that can often be painful. Households may well have been overcharged for the energy use, and at a time when many are already struggling to pay their energy bills. Some households might now have to go back to manual readings if they want to question their bill, but the technology can make that difficult, too.

There is a depressingly familiar pattern starting to emerge. The computer system doesn’t work as it should. There is plenty of buck passing, with people initially denying there is anything to worry about, then blaming someone else for the problems, and finally denying that anything can ever be done to fix the problem. It seems that no one has learned anything from the Post Office scandal. Instead, ministers will grimly press ahead with a technology that clearly doesn’t work, and if people are forced to pay an inflated sum, then it will simply be brushed under the carpet.

Even more terrifyingly, the meters may eventually be used for ‘time-of-day’ charging. It would not be much of a surprise if Ed Miliband, as energy minister in a government led by Sir Keir Starmer, introduces some form of energy rationing. After all, there seems to be little hope of ever hitting our net zero targets without it. Your smart meter might then decide when you can and can’t boil the kettle, regardless of whether it works properly – and if it doesn’t work well enough, that’s tough.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/03/27/the-smart-meters-scandal-is-about-to-explode-in-our-faces/

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Car makers losing $6000 on every electric car they sell

Car manufacturers are losing $6000 on every electric car they sell, according to a new report from the United States.

The study, undertaken by the Boston Consulting Group study, found that motorists toying with the idea of going electric for their next vehicle purchase want three main things: short charging times, a 560km-plus driving range, and to pay roughly $US50,000 ($AU76,000).

On that basis, the Group estimates most automakers lose around $US6000 ($AU9000) on each electric vehicle they sell for $US50,000, after accounting for customer tax credits.

Using US pricing, only one electric model available today is ticking most consumers' boxes – the Hyundai Ioniq 6, which starts from $US42,450 before on-road costs. The Tesla Model 3 runs a close second.

The Boston Consulting Group warns if manufacturers can’t turn a profit from this generation of electric vehicles (EVs) then there will be trouble ahead.

"If [original equipment manufacturers] can't make money in this next generation [of EVs] … something's going to have to change," senior partner Andrew Loh told Automotive News.

There are, of course, some exceptions to this rule. Tesla has been profitable for many years, and even Chinese newcomer BYD is making money now.

According to Inside EVs, historically the average level of profitability from mass-market internal combustion-engined vehicles (ICE) is around 10 per cent, but add in other costs such as an EV’s battery, the e-powertrain and additional electronics and upgrading factories and quickly that number starts to fall into the red.

In other words, high capital costs in the early stages of EV development, being built at operations that aren't yet fully at scale, are to blame, and to survive partnerships across automakers and suppliers to split costs are critical for EV profitability.

“There's too much upfront investment, and there's too much individual model risk for both vehicle manufacturers and suppliers to incur on their own," Brian Collie, global leader for Boston Consulting Group's automotive and mobility practice, told Automotive News.

"Partnerships and joint ventures are the way to drive greater scale."

Automakers can also close half of the cost gap with effective technology choices, such as higher-density batteries, more efficient electric motors and better battery management software. They should also identify efficiencies in EV and internal combustion vehicle production, Boston Consulting Group said.

Even so, the study revealed carmakers are still likely to lose about $US3000 on every $50,000 EV they sell.

In the US last year, many car firms predicted a 70 per cent sales growth based on sales virtually doubling from 2020 to 2022, however growth in fact only reached around 50 per cent in 2023.

https://www.drive.com.au/news/car-makers-losing-6000-on-every-electric-car-they-sell-report/

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My other blogs. Main ones below

http://dissectleft.blogspot.com (DISSECTING LEFTISM )

http://edwatch.blogspot.com (EDUCATION WATCH)

http://pcwatch.blogspot.com (POLITICAL CORRECTNESS WATCH)

http://australian-politics.blogspot.com (AUSTRALIAN POLITICS)

http://snorphty.blogspot.com/ (TONGUE-TIED)

http://jonjayray.com/blogall.html More blogs

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