Saharan Expert Says Climate Tipping Points ‘Complete Nonsense’
Dr. Stefan Kröpelin is an award-winning geologist and climate researcher at the University of Cologne and specializes in studying the eastern Sahara desert and its climatic history
He’s been active out in the field there for more than 40 years.
In an AUF 1 video interview, Dr. Kröpelin contradicts the alarmist claims of growing deserts and rapidly approaching climate ‘tipping points’.
He says that already in the late 1980s rains had begun spreading into northern Sudan and have since indeed developed into a trend.
Since then, rains have increased and vegetation has spread northwards. “The desert is shrinking; it is not growing.”
Kröpelin confirms that when the last ice age ended some 12,000 years ago, the eastern Sahara turned green with vegetation, teemed with wildlife, and had numerous bodies of water 5000 – 10,000 years ago
Later in the interview, Kröpelin explains how the eastern Sahara climate was reconstructed using a vast multitude of sediment cores and the proxy data they yielded.
According to the German geology expert: “The most important studies that we conducted all show that after the ice age, when global temperatures rose, the Sahara greened”… “the monsoon rains increased, the groundwater rose.”
This all led to vegetation and wildlife taking hold over thousands of years. Then over the past few thousands of years, the region dried out. It didn’t happen all of a sudden like climate models suggest.
Modelers Don’t Understand Climate Complexity
When asked about dramatic ‘tipping points’ (8:00) such as those claimed to be approaching by the Potsdam Institute (PIK), Kröpelin says he’s very skeptical and doesn’t believe crisis scenarios such as those proposed by former PIK head, Hans-Joachim Schellnhuber.
He says people making such claims “never did any studies themselves in any climate zone on the earth and they don’t understand how complex the climate is.”
Except for catastrophic geological events, “it’s not how nature works,” Kröpelin says. “Things change gradually.”
The claim that “we have to be careful that things don’t get half a degree warmer, otherwise everything will collapse is, of course, complete nonsense.”
“I would say this concept [tipping points] is baseless. Much more [evidence] indicates that they won’t happen than that they will happen.”
Late last year in Munich, he called the notion of CO2-induced climate ‘tipping points’ scientifically outlandish.
He also called the prospect of the Sahara spreading into Europe preposterous.
https://principia-scientific.com/saharan-expert-says-climate-tipping-points-complete-nonsense/
******************************************FAIL: LA Times Botches the Difference Between “Average Temperature Anomaly” & “Absolute Maximum Temperature””
In the most recent LA Times article hyping “the hottest October on record” the Times can’t seem to get it right in understanding the critical differences between “average temperature anomaly” and “maximum absolute temperature” data.
The Times article references the global average temperature anomaly graphic noted below which shows the October 2023 global value.
NOAA has also released its October 2023 Contiguous U.S. average temperature anomaly outcome of 1.35 F (shown below – degrees F on the left hand scale) which climate alarmists have ignored and instead erroneously hyped the global wide October average temperature anomaly outcome as representing the maximum absolute temperature that applies to the Contiguous U.S. region.
The U.S. Contiguous average temperature anomaly value is defined using the USCRN temperature network of measurement stations that commenced operation in 2005 that are specifically determined to meet siting standards that preclude urban heat island impacts from distorting temperature measurements as occurs on the majority of USHCN temperature stations.
The NOAA October 2023 Contiguous U.S. average temperature anomaly value is only the 7th highest average anomaly value measured with prior year measurements for years 2016 (3.44 F), 2015 (2.72 F), 2021(2.29 F), 2014 (2.23 F), 2007 (1.85 F) and 2010 (1.46 F) all exceeding the October 2023 measured average temperature anomaly result.
The L A Times article shown below once again misunderstands and misuses (as discussed in a prior WUWT article found here) the critical difference (yet again) between average temperature anomaly data and absolute maximum temperature data by erroneously claiming that the October 2023 average temperature anomaly represents the “the hottest October on record” (note the Times articles photo caption) without understanding that such claims can only be determined by use of absolute maximum temperature data versus average temperature anomaly data.
Average temperature anomaly data represents a measure of the statistical difference between a specific month’s average temperature and the long-term average temperature of that same months’ prior measurements over a defined period of years.
Average temperature anomaly data does not represent maximum absolute temperature values with these latter measurements being required to support claims of “the hottest October on record” as hyped by climate alarmists.
The global wide average temperature anomaly data represent the combined average of hugely varying global regional average temperature anomaly values that cover the entire earth’s surface with about 70% of that surface being over the world’s oceans and about 30% being over the far-flung continents which are separated by tens of thousands of miles.
The land area of the contiguous U.S. region represents less than 1.9 % of the earth’s surface and lies between a specific and defined region of latitude (about 25.84 degrees N to 49.38 degrees N) and longitude (about 66.96 degrees W to 124.67 degrees W) in the northern hemisphere.
Attempting to utilize a global wide average temperature anomaly value to determine what absolute maximum temperature outcomes occurred in various defined regional global areas is absurd and invalid.
If the L A Times wants to address “the hottest October on record” it needs to use absolute maximum temperature data records instead of average temperature anomaly data.
NOAA’s Contiguous U.S. October maximum temperature data for the period 1895 to 2023 (shown below ) clearly establishes that October 2023 was only the 94th highest October maximum temperature out of 129 recorded maximum temperatures with the highest ever measured October valueoccurring in 1963.
Looking at NOAA’s Contiguous U.S. maximum temperature data for all months between 1895 and 2023, as shown below, establishes that the October 2023 maximum temperature was only the 867th maximum temperature month out of 1546 recorded maximum temperature months.
If the L A Times wants to make claims of “the hottest month on record” then it must use absolute maximum temperature data to do so and stop erroneously using invalid global average temperature anomaly data to falsely support its flawed “the hottest month on record” claims.
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US Appeals Court Orders Biden Admin to Conduct Gulf Oil, Gas Auction Within 37 Days
A federal appeals court in New Orleans gave the Biden administration 37 days to move forward with the sale of oil and gas leases in the Gulf of Mexico, dismissing challenges from environmental groups in a ruling on Tuesday.
The decision comes after a series of legal battles, primarily citing concerns over endangered whale species.
The three-judge panel of the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals rejected the attempts by environmental groups to block the leases, which had been delayed due to legal challenges related to whale protections.
The pending sale, initially announced in March, faced delays from its original date on Sept. 27, extending to Nov. 8 amid ongoing legal disputes. In late October, the appeals court further postponed the sale pending arguments specifically addressing endangered whale species, scheduled for Nov. 13.
President Joe Biden had temporarily suspended federal drilling auctions early in his term as part of his climate agenda. However, the lease sales were compelled by the Inflation Reduction Act, mandating their occurrence in September.
In August, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) sought to modify the leases, reducing the available area by 6 million acres from the original 73 million acres to 67 million acres.
The changes also included restrictions on vessel speeds and additional requirements for personnel on industry vessels within certain leased areas. These alterations resulted from an agreement reached between federal agencies and environmental groups that sued in 2020, citing insufficient safeguards for whales.
The state of Louisiana, along with industry giants such as the American Petroleum Institute, Chevron, and Shell, filed a lawsuit aiming to reverse the acreage reduction and block the inclusion of whale-protective measures in the lease sale provisions. They argued that these actions by the administration violated the Inflation Reduction Act, which not only incentivized green energy but also promoted new drilling opportunities in the Gulf.
A lower court had ruled in favor of the industry groups, directing the Biden administration to proceed with the sale promptly. The administration and environmental groups both appealed, with the former seeking additional time and the latter advocating for the whale-protection measures.
The appeals court granted the administration a 37-day extension to carry out the sale.
However, the court dismissed the environmental groups' challenge on Tuesday, asserting that they lacked standing in the case as they did not demonstrate a "certainly impending" injury or the likelihood of the court resolving such issues.
Environmental groups expressed disappointment and concern over the ruling, warning of potential consequences for the endangered Rice's whale.
“This disappointing and unjustified ruling could be the death knell for the nearly extinct Rice’s whale,” said George Torgun, an attorney with Earthjustice, in a written statement.
“The oil industry fought tooth and nail to tear up basic measures to save one of the most endangered marine mammals in the world. This could be the difference between doing the bare minimum to save this species, and allowing it to vanish,” he added.
On the other hand, the American Petroleum Institute hailed the decision as a victory, emphasizing the importance of the Gulf of Mexico in maintaining affordable and reliable American energy production.
"Today’s decision creates greater certainty for the essential energy workforce and the entire Gulf Coast economy," Ryan Meyers, the group’s senior vice president and general counsel, said in a written statement.
The Biden administration has declared that it will sell only three offshore oil and gas leases over the next five years as part of its climate agenda.
In a Sept. 29 statement, the Department of the Interior said that between 2024 and 2029, it would engage in "a maximum of three potential oil and gas lease sales” in the Gulf of Mexico region, scheduled for 2025, 2027, and 2029.
The three sales represent “the fewest oil and gas lease sales in history,” the department claims.
Meanwhile, no oil and gas lease sales will happen in the Atlantic, Pacific, or Alaskan waters during this period, according to the statement.
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The electric dreams of the Australian Left are running on empty as new car sales tank
Australia must be running out of elitists with money to burn
Chris Bowen’s electric vehicle strategy is on track to fail after government department officials predicted fewer than a third of new car sales would be battery-operated by 2030, casting doubt on Labor’s modelling underpinning its green agenda.
The latest estimates from the federal transport department are that electric cars will make up 27 per cent of new car sales by 2030, well below the 89 per cent forecast in Labor’s pre-election modelling that helped boost its 43 per cent emissions reduction target.
The 89 per cent prediction in Labor’s modelling conducted by RepuTex was based on Anthony Albanese’s pre-election policies that have been implemented since the government was elected, including exempting electric cars from import tariffs and fringe benefit taxes.
The department also estimates electric cars will account for 5 per cent of nation’s small vehicle fleet by 2030, a third below Labor’s pre-election modelling of 15 per cent.
Mr Bowen, the Climate Change and Energy Minister, waited until after the election to unveil plans to implement vehicle efficiency standards but this was not part of the modelling that formed the basis of Labor’s targets that are now Australia’s international commitments.
The RepuTex modelling predicted Labor’s policies would lead to 82 per cent of Australia’s electricity being powered by renewables by the end of the decade and a $275 reduction in household energy bills by 2025, with analysts arguing Australia is not on track to meet these forecasts halfway through the government’s term.
Energy experts cast doubt over Labor’s electric car projections before the election but Mr Bowen refused to release the detailed modelling that underpinned the assumption.
RepuTex head of research Bret Harper told The Australian that the government’s electric car sales forecast “seems about right”, despite being less than half predicted by his company ahead of the election.
Mr Harper said his modelling included plug-in hybrid sales in its figures – but federal Labor agreed to end tax breaks for all hybrid cars by 2025 under a deal struck with the Greens.
“A few years ago plug-in hybrids would have been considered a green vehicle but since then it has been ruled out because it has a combustion engine and runs on fossil fuels,” Mr Harper said.
“The department figures sound perfectly plausible, anything in between the 20 to 30 per cent range seems about right.”
Ahead of the election, the Prime Minister said Labor did not make a political decision about landing on an emissions reduction target of 43 per cent by 2030, despite it being marginally below the uncosted 45 per cent target that hurt the party in regional areas in the 2019 election. Instead, Mr Albanese said RepuTex modelled the party’s policies announced in opposition and that figure came out as 43 per cent.
“What we didn’t do was adopt a target and then work back,” Mr Albanese said after announcing Labor’s 43 per cent target in 2021. “What we did was work through what are the good policy mechanisms … and then see where that came up through the modelling.”
Mr Harper revealed Labor workshopped its policies with the modelling agency and “settled” on a suite of measures that would lead to an emissions target the party was confident of taking to an election.
He said the ALP were interested in “the outcome of each of the models individually” with some having a larger impact on emissions reductions than others.
“They gave us the policies and we gave them the outcomes, there were lots of different iterations and then we settled on one,” Mr Harper said.
“Lots of different policies were considered and they were making decisions about which ones would be worth it for them.
“In an election campaign they wanted to keep their policies focused and wanted to get good bang for their buck in terms of what they committed.”
In a Senate estimates hearing last month, officials from the Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development, Communications and the Arts revealed their latest forecasts found electric vehicles were on track to make up 27 per cent of new vehicle sales by 2030.
“In 2030, it’s forecast that electric vehicles will make up (5 per cent) of the total vehicles on roads and 27 per cent of new car sales,” Surface Transport Emissions and Policy first assistant secretary Paula Stagg told estimates.
When Greens senator Janet Rice noted this was “way short of 89”, Ms Stagg said: “Yes it is”.
A spokesman for Mr Bowen said Labor’s electric vehicle strategy was “off to a flying start” with EVs jumping from 2 per cent of new car sales in May last year to almost 9 per cent.
The spokesman said the department’s forecasts did not take into account “all policies under the National Electric Vehicle Strategy, including the government’s decision to introduce fuel-efficiency standards to improve Australians access to cleaner, cheaper-to-run cars”.
The ALP is expected to introduce fuel efficiency standards – which set obligations for car suppliers to lower the total emissions of their stock to meet a national goal — by the end of the year.
Opposition climate change and energy spokesman Ted O’Brien seized on the modelling discrepancies between RepuTex and the government, saying Labor had “failed to deliver against its own targets and promises”.
“This is what happens when you pluck arbitrary political targets out of thin air and then refuse to have Treasury or the Department assess them,” Mr O’Brien said.
“Its 43 per cent emissions reduction target, 82 per cent renewable energy target, 89 per cent electric vehicle target and the all-important $275 reduction in power bills are all set to fail.”
The opposition last year raised concern a key plank of Labor’s plan to wave import tariffs on electric cars was redundant, with more than 70 per cent of car imports being exempt from tariffs under free trade deals.
Grattan Institute energy director Tony Wood warned Labor would be unable to meet its target without stronger policy levers including fuel efficiency standards.
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My other blogs. Main ones below
http://dissectleft.blogspot.com (DISSECTING LEFTISM )
http://edwatch.blogspot.com (EDUCATION WATCH)
http://pcwatch.blogspot.com (POLITICAL CORRECTNESS WATCH)
http://australian-politics.blogspot.com (AUSTRALIAN POLITICS)
http://snorphty.blogspot.com/ (TONGUE-TIED)
http://jonjayray.com/blogall.html More blogs
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Jim Hansen and his twin
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