Don’t Believe the Hype About Antarctica’s Melting Glaciers
Alarming reports that the Antarctic ice sheet is shrinking misrepresent the science under way to understand a very complex situation. Antarctica has been ice-covered for at least 30 million years. The ice sheet holds about 26.5 million gigatons of water (a gigaton is a billion metric tons, or about 2.2 trillion pounds). If it were to melt completely, sea levels would rise 190 feet. Such a change is many millennia in the future, if it comes at all.
Much more modest ice loss is normal in Antarctica. Each year, some 2,200 gigatons (or 0.01%) of the ice is discharged in the form of melt and icebergs, while snowfall adds almost the same amount. The difference between the discharge and addition each year is the ice sheet’s annual loss. That figure has been increasing in recent decades, from 40 gigatons a year in the 1980s to 250 gigatons a year in the 2010s.
But the increase is a small change in a complex and highly variable process. For example, Greenland’s annual loss has fluctuated significantly over the past century. And while the Antarctic losses seem stupendously large, the recent annual losses amount to 0.001% of the total ice and, if they continued at that rate, would raise sea level by only 3 inches over 100 years.
Many fear that a warming globe could cause glaciers to retreat rapidly, increasing discharge and causing more rapid sea-level rise. To get beyond that simplistic picture, it is important to understand how glaciers have flowed in the past to predict better whether they might flow faster in the future.
Two recent studies reported in the media focus on the terminus of glaciers—i.e., where the ice, the ocean and the ground come together. One study used an underwater drone to map the seabed at a depth of 2,000 feet, about 35 miles from the terminus of the Thwaites Glacier in Antarctica. Detailed sonar scans showed a washboard pattern of ridges, most less than 8 inches high. The ridges are caused by daily tides and serve as a record of where ice touched the seabed in the past. Researchers could read that record to infer that at some time in the past the glacier retreated for half a year at more than twice the fastest rate observed between 2011 and 2019.
The cause of the specific event at the Thwaites Glacier remains unknown, in part because the time of the rapid retreat hasn’t yet been determined. It likely happened more than 70 years ago, if not several centuries ago. But the media goes with this angle: “A ‘doomsday glacier’ the size of Florida is disintegrating faster than thought.” A correct headline would read: “Thwaites Glacier retreating less than half as rapidly today as it did in the past.”
A second study tested the idea that freshwater from the melting of one glacier could be carried by currents along the shore to accelerate the discharge of nearby glaciers. Because global climate models are insufficiently detailed to describe the ocean near the coast, researchers constructed a special model to prove out their idea. If ocean currents can connect the discharges of distant glaciers, that would add to the complexity and variability of changes in the Antarctic ice sheet.
Under scenarios deemed likely by the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a connection between ocean currents and discharge would increase the overall discharge rate in one region of the continent by some 10% by the end of the century. But to emphasize the idea being tested, the modelers used human influences almost three times larger. Even though that fact is stated in the paper, reporters rarely catch such nuance, and the media goes with headlines such as “Antarctic Ice Melting Could Be 40 Percent Faster Than Thought” with the absurd statement that “a massive tsunami would swamp New York City and beyond, killing millions. London, Venice and Mumbai would also become aquariums.” A more accurate headline would read: “Ocean currents connecting antarctic glaciers might accelerate their melting.”
These two studies illustrate the progress being made in understanding a dauntingly complex mix of ice, ocean, land and weather, with clever methods to infer past conditions and sophisticated computer modeling to show potential future scenarios. These papers describe the science with appropriate precision and caveats, but it is a shame that the media misrepresents the research to raise alarm. That denies the public the right to make informed decisions about “climate action,” as well as the opportunity to marvel at the science itself.
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Biden's energy policies encourage global instability
When it comes to energy independence – a key component of global stability – the America of 2022 could learn a lot from the America of 1942.
In that year, American energy dominance powered the Allied war effort of World War II, making production substantially cheaper and producing an abundance of war material: aviation fuel, gasoline, synthetic rubber and more. America would produce seven times as much aviation fuel as all the other major belligerents combined. She outproduced Japan in coal by more than a 10-to-1 margin and pumped 700 times as much oil.
In short, American energy was a cornerstone of Allied victory.
More recently, renewed American energy independence, which was becoming energy dominance, was a pillar of geopolitical stability. Increased American production created lower prices, which acted like a choke collar on hostile nations that rely on energy exports to fund their war machines. Simply put, Russia did not invade its neighbors when oil and natural gas prices were low and American energy exports were increasing.
People often underestimate the degree to which energy markets impact military exercises and excursions, something that the Greatest Generation knew intimately.
The Nazi war machine and the Imperial Japanese juggernaut were starved for energy by the Allies, who themselves were backstopped by a burgeoning American energy industry. Fast forward 80 years, and Germany is again being strangled by losing energy imports, while the rest of Europe is being threatened by the Soviet Union’s hostile descendant.
When America is producing affordable and abundant energy not only for herself but for her allies around the globe, then Columbia’s enemies think twice before stepping out of line. American energy dominance is not only pro-American but pro-peace. Inexpensive American energy is a key pillar to geopolitical stability.
But that pillar was knocked down and the subsequent stability rent asunder by President Joe Biden’s “green” energy boondoggles and anti-energy policies. Canceling pipelines, imposing additional taxes and regulations on coal, oil, and natural gas, promising to end these three industries in just a few years, and stonewalling new leases for drilling are just some of the ways he has hamstrung one of America’s greatest strategic assets.
America cannot even keep the lights on here at home, with multiple states experiencing severe energy shortages in recent days. That projects weakness, not strength.
By abdicating the global energy throne, America has left a power vacuum, which China, Russia, Iran and others are thrilled to fill. This has left our supposed European allies in a bind, as Russia's Vladimir Putin now has them over an oil barrel, with the ability to shut off the continent’s energy until sanctions are lifted. Germany, the largest economy in Europe, is facing a catastrophic shortage of modern fuels, and Germans are searching online for firewood at a rate that is a multiple of previous records.
German industry will be brought to a grinding halt from this energy shortage and the economy forced to its knees. The industrial incapacitation that took years of American and British bombing campaigns and millions of Soviet casualties is now being accomplished much faster and less bloodily by simply shutting off Russian energy exports.
Energy is not just a domestic policy issue, but a foreign policy requirement. Nations that are energy reliant are vulnerable while those that are energy dominant control spheres of influence. America would likely not be sending arms to Europe if she had already been sending tankers and freighters of affordable, reliable energy. But such exports presume a robust domestic energy industry capable of exceeding demand at home and projecting power abroad.
Biden clearly never learned this lesson from history. Now would be a good time to start.
https://www.arcamax.com/politics/opeds/s-2725272
**********************************************EV Owners Sick and Tired of Allegedly Being Lied to About Their Cars: Massive Lawsuit Filed Against Tesla
Tesla has been slapped with a class-action lawsuit. The suit claims the electric car company has misled the public regarding its Autopilot and Full Self-Driving technology.
The law firm filing the suit issued a news release on Wednesday stating that many customers paid thousands of dollars for the software believing that it would make their vehicles fully autonomous.
However, “Tesla has yet to produce anything even remotely approaching a fully self-driving car,” said Briggs Matsko, the suit’s named plaintiff, according to Reuters.
“Since at least 2016, Tesla has misleadingly and deceptively marketed its supposed autopilot and full self-driving technology as either already fully functional or just around the corner,” the news release said.
The law firm pointed to a video demonstration published on Tesla’s website back in 2016, which declared that “the person in the driver’s seat is only there for legal reasons. He is not doing anything. The car is driving itself.”
The New York Times later reported that the demonstration wasn’t a realistic representation of real-world use and that the car had crashed into a barrier during the making of the video.
The release also said Tesla’s “self-driving” technology has caused people to lose their lives and suffer serious injuries.
In fact, there have been enough deaths and injuries that the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, the National Transportation Safety Board and other regulating bodies have opened investigations into the matter, the release said.
In addition, the California Department of Motor Vehicles has filed a complaint against Tesla accusing the company of making false and misleading statements about its Autopilot and FSD technology.
If the state DMV’s claims are found to be valid, Tesla’s vehicle dealer and manufacturing licenses could be revoked and the company required to pay restitution.
Matsko said Tesla’s motive for misrepresenting its technology was to “generate excitement” about its vehicles.
It was also allegedly intended to draw investors, increase sales, avert bankruptcy and inflate Tesla’s stock price so that the company would appear to be a “dominant player” in the electric vehicle industry.
Additional problems that Tesla owners have reported in connection to the “self-driving” software include vehicles failing to make routine turns, running red lights and veering into oncoming traffic.
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Australia has become a nation ruled by fools
We have surrendered power over every aspect of our lives and industry to fifteen debating chambers in eight ruling cities. These assemblies are controlled by lawyers, unionists, centralists, green dreamers, power seekers, and tax consumers.
Their direct cost alone is horrendous.
There are 837 politicians (ignoring local government). Each has a salary (say $200,000), travel and office costs (say $150,000 per year), and staff costs (say $200,000) – a billion here, plus a billion there and pretty soon you’re talking real money.
Now add all the state and federal governors, the cabinets with their limos and press corps, eight armies of tax collectors, and the accountants and lawyers trying to protect taxpayers from them. Then there are the building costs with each citadel probably getting its red-and-black flag (the NSW version flag cost $25 million).
But salaries and perks are a minor part of their real cost. The killer costs are incurred when they use direct investments or fiddle the rules on taxes and subsidies to chase impossible green dreams.
Most of our 837 politicians and their servants are obsessed with Net Zero and, learning from the Covid lockdowns, they now dream of Climate lockdowns.
Devoid of engineering talent or economic common sense they presume to design our electricity network (but they ban emissions-free nuclear power while planning the destruction of the old reliables, coal, gas, and hydro). Although the green-infected electricity grid is struggling to meet current demands, they ‘plan’ to add even greater loads to turn water into hydrogen, push water uphill, charge giant batteries and power subsidised fleets of electric vehicles.
Pretending to save the bush, their green mandates and subsidies are replacing useful grasslands and valuable resources of hardwood, softwood, mulga, and saltbush with bird slicers, roads, poles, wires, plastic, metal, concrete, and glass as the new green energy landscapes. Then they plan to use this intermittent low-density green energy to produce hydrogen which can never recover the energy used to produce it, and also consumes nine tonnes of fresh water for every tonne of hydrogen produced.
Ignorant of the realities of food production, they turn grasslands into havens for weeds and pests, and lock-the-gates to explorers, farmers, foresters, and fishermen. They think we can have drought and flood mitigation without dams, timber without foresters, minerals without mines, and food without farmers and fishermen.
They reward people who won’t work and tax those who do. Ignorant of the benefits of federalism, they strive to destroy federalism by inventing a ‘National Cabinet’, and run endless centralising summits, enquiries, and talkfests. Soon, the veto of The Voice could make anything and everything impossible!
A cold hungry winter is about to show Europe the deadly dangers of listening to green dreamers. It is surely time for Australia to withdraw from foreign entanglements like the Paris treaty, and chop Canberra’s green tentacles, limiting its duties to defence, foreign affairs, and maintenance of free trade (exactly as our founders intended).
https://www.spectator.com.au/2022/09/ruled-by-fools
***************************************My other blogs. Main ones below
http://dissectleft.blogspot.com (DISSECTING LEFTISM )
http://edwatch.blogspot.com (EDUCATION WATCH)
http://pcwatch.blogspot.com (POLITICAL CORRECTNESS WATCH)
http://australian-politics.blogspot.com (AUSTRALIAN POLITICS)
http://snorphty.blogspot.com/ (TONGUE-TIED)
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Jim Hansen and his twin
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