Thursday, November 04, 2021
Climate change will cause corn, wheat and soybeans crops to go haywire by 2030, DECADES sooner than expected, damning NASA study says
These modelling exercises are another case of GIGO. What you get out of them reflects what you put into them. The authors admit that wheat crops will increase -- as well they might. Canada already produces a huge wheat crop and warming would expand that.
As far as corn is concerned, there are already varieties in India that grow well in hot conditions.
And the guff below is based on CMIP6 assumptions, which posit extreme temperature rises, not the most probable ones
The world's crop staples, including corn, wheat and soybeans, are likely to be drastically impacted by climate change as soon as 2030, 'several decades sooner than estimated,' according to a newly published study.
The research — stemming from NASA scientists — notes that in a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario, corn crop yields will drop a staggering 24 percent.
Corn is considered 'the most important global crop in terms of total production and food security in many regions,' according to the study.
Soybeans and rice are also set to be negatively impacted, though the models created by the researchers give varying levels of impact, ranging from a decline of 2 percent to as low as 21 percent.
Rice could see a drop from 23 percent growth to 2 percent growth or as low as a 15 percent decline. However, wheat crops could grow 17 percent, the researchers concluded.
'We introduce the concept of climate impact emergence to the field of agriculture impacts, highlighting that major shifts in global crop productivity due to climate change are projected to occur within the next 20 [years], several decades sooner than estimates based on previous model projections,' the authors wrote in the study.
The researchers used advanced climate and agricultural modeling to look for changes in yields based on several factors, including projected increases in temperatures, changing rainfall patterns and a rise in carbon dioxide concentrations.
'We did not expect to see such a fundamental shift, as compared to crop yield projections from the previous generation of climate and crop models conducted in 2014,' said the study's lead author Jonas Jägermeyr, a crop modeler and climate scientist at NASA's Goddard Institute, in a statement.
Jägermeyr was especially concerned at the projected decline in corn, adding, 'a 20% decrease from current production levels could have severe implications worldwide.'
Although wheat crop yields will increase globally, it will be uneven and will not last forever, according to the study.
South Asia, the southern U.S., Mexico and parts of South America will be able to grow the crop longer, as will certain parts of the northern U.S., Canada and other East Africa.
However, the gains may start to 'level off mid-century,' NASA said in the statement.
'Even under optimistic climate change scenarios, where societies enact ambitious efforts to limit global temperature rise, global agriculture is facing a new climate reality,' Jägermeyr added.
'And with the interconnectedness of the global food system, impacts in even one region's breadbasket will be felt worldwide.'
The researchers used the climate model simulations from the International Climate Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 6 (CMIP6) and simulations for 12 crop models from Columbia University's Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) to come up with their findings.
*******************************************
Man-made Disaster for Ireland
Up to 1.3 million cattle would have to be culled in Ireland to reach anticipated government targets for reducing greenhouse gases in the agriculture sector, a new report has concluded.
Irish farmers are expecting the worst after taoiseach Micheál Martin described the report by KPMG, commissioned by weekly newspaper the Irish Farmers Journal, as “scaremongering”.
The debate over agriculture’s role in reducing carbon emissions is a hugely controversial topic in Ireland, pitting Dublin against rural communities.
The country, which does not have a significant manufacturing sector, has long relied on farming, alongside multinational investment, to drive its economy. Irish beef and dairy brands such as Kerrygold and Pilgrims Choice are among its most successful exports.
But Irish agriculture is under huge pressure: 35% of national greenhouse gases come from the sector, the highest level in Europe, where the average is 11%. And more than 60% of that comes from methane associated with belching by ruminant animals.
Ninety countries pledged to reduce methane emissions by 30% by 2030 in Glasgow on Tuesday in an initiative put forward by the US and the EU. Although methane breaks down relatively quickly in the atmosphere, it is a more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. Reducing these emissions has been touted as one of the most immediate opportunities to slow global heating.
Stephen Prendiville, head of sustainability at the EY consultancy in Dublin, said the debate about methane “had been lost” in the narrative about the climate emergency and this would help countries reliant on agriculture to focus on how to “operationalise” reductions.
The Irish government is due to unveil its sector-by-sector climate emergency plans on Thursday and is considering a 21% to 30% cut in carbon emissions from the agriculture sector.
KPMG looked at four scenarios, concluding that rural Ireland faced a €4bn hit to the economy and the loss of more than 56,000 jobs if the government opted for the 30% target.
It also warned that a 30% cut would require a 20% cut in cattle numbers, 22% of the beef herd and 18% of the dairy herd.
With 6.5 million cattle in the country according to official Central Statistics Office data this equates to a reduction of 1.3 million of the national herd.
The lower target of 21% would mean a reduction of about 5%, or 325,000 cattle, according to the KPMG analysis.
“Farmers desperately hope that it doesn’t come to this [culling],” said Phelim O’Neill, editor of the Irish Farmers Journal. “There is widespread acknowledgement that we need to reduce emissions”, he said but he had commissioned the report to put some facts back into the “heated debate” that is giving famers “climate anxiety” about their futures.
The debate has pitted Dublin versus rural Ireland, with farmers feeling they are being unfairly targeted without government assessments of the impact on their industry.
**************************************************
Uncertain future for battery metals
As the EV boom and the broader clean energy transition gathers pace, investors are monitoring the demand outlooks for key metals and rare earths that will play a central role in the shift.
On that front, a new report by the CSIRO this week offers some insights into the future of that supply and demand outlook.
The report ‘Known Unknowns: the devil in the details of energy metal demand’ uses the Physical Stocks and Flows Framework (PSFF) tool to look at three EV battery metals (cobalt, lithium and nickel) under three different EV uptake scenarios.
Among the key questions for users to explore, is how technological change and recycling recovery rates will impact the demand and supply of metals.
It suggests that metals used in electric vehicles may be more complicated than what is currently accepted.
CSIRO’s critical energy metals mission-in-development lead, Dr Jerad Ford, said the PSFF tool uses factors not currently accounted for in traditional forecasts to test the demand and supply assumptions.
“We know that demand for many metals will increase substantially as the world transitions to a low carbon economy,” Dr Ford said.
However, unsophisticated models based on current supply levels and recycling levels could lead to “many mischaracterisations of the real opportunities in both metal mining and recycling”.
“They ignore the dynamics of materials flows on a global scale, and the expected changes in underlying technologies,” Ford said.
Cobalt and nickel could have an extremely short demand cycle
Ford and his team framed their research with scenario-based analysis for three different supply/demand projections, based on the variables outlined above.
For instance, it is commonly assumed that demand for newly-mined metals like cobalt and nickel will continue to increase for the foreseeable future, as they are essential for high performance lithium-ion batteries used in EVs.
However, by “Accounting for additional factors such as changes in battery chemistry, quicker EV uptake, and higher levels of recycling, the PSFF tool suggests that cobalt demand may have a short demand window before an extended glut”, Ford said.
The CSIRO’s model also calculated a scenario where nickel demand also peaks early before falling back, while lithium remains “stronger for longer before also trailing off in the out-years”.
“This challenges conventional wisdom that the demand for these battery metals will mirror each other,” Ford said.
***********************************************
'First Victim' of Build Back Better Agenda Torches Biden for Killing Energy Jobs
"It's definitely not something that I'm proud of, but I may have been the first casualty of the 'Build Back Better' plan," explained Neal Crabtree, a pipeline welder and union member who testified before the House Oversight Committee on Thursday.
"Three hours after President Biden's inauguration, I lost my job on the construction of the Keystone Pipeline," Crabtree explained. "Now I realize this was only one project, but what I really feared was the consequences the decisions would have on my future. And now I see those fears being realized. Not only did I lose an opportunity for employment on the Keystone, but I'm losing employment opportunities."
"All this is happening while the demand for energy is rising — Build Back Better shouldn't mean the total neglect and destruction of our energy infrastructure as we know it," Crabtree said. "Instead of being built or being in service they're now canceled," he added of pipelines and other fossil fuel infrastructure projects. "They were canceled because of overregulation and in a push for a green new energy sector that just isn't capable or reliable enough to provide the energy that we need right now."
Crabtree, who's worked on pipelines for decades, stated how he too is feeling the price crunch brought on by growing inflation that's hitting Americans at the gas pump and in their utility bills.
"People from coast to coast are feeling the pain of rising energy prices and there seems to be no thought given to the hundreds of thousands of workers in this industry or the millions of products that we use every single day that, you know, are provided by fossil fuels," he said. "There shouldn't be a fear of a heating shortage in the northeast this coming winter, yet here we are."
"Rising prices are a direct result of the lack of infrastructure that it takes to get the products moved to where they're needed most and it's mainly pipeline construction," Crabtree said, highlighting the problems that are driving up fossil fuel costs — a similar situation to the supply chain crisis playing out at several American ports.
"Every penny in the increase of energy on Americans takes about a billion dollars out of the pockets of Americans over a year's time and I can't see how that's a popular decision right now," explained Crabtree. If the root causes of increased fossil fuel prices aren't addressed, "I believe that elections in the coming years are going to prove that point," he stated.
"The disruption of the Colonial Pipeline earlier this year should've proven just how important the work that myself and these companies do really is," Crabtree pointed out. "We took one pipeline that was down for one week and we saw the panic it caused. Why do we only have one pipeline servicing such an important part of this country," Crabtree asked rhetorically before giving the answer: "It costs more to permit and plan a new pipeline than it does to actually build one."
Crabtree isn't anti-green energy, though. He said he believes "it's going to take an all-of-the-above approach for our energy future" but that future doesn't mean demonizing the fossil fuel industry, something that is "only going to hurt the economy and the country."
On a more personal note, Crabtree also explained what the Biden administration's anti-fossil fuel energy agenda means to him and those in similar situations. "I belong to a union that specializes in pipeline construction and I've spent over 25 years developing the skills that I have and I'm compensated well for it," he explained. "The government's idea of shutting down my industry and retraining me in another career is not realistic — I'm too far in life to be starting over at an entry level position."
"There's a whole generation of workers coming up that if they want to pursue careers in green energy then I support that just like I support private companies' rights to develop green energy," he said again proving he's not anti-green energy. "What I don't support is the government limiting my employment opportunities in my chosen field, especially when the product is in huge demand."
***************************************
My other blogs. Main ones below
http://dissectleft.blogspot.com (DISSECTING LEFTISM )
http://edwatch.blogspot.com (EDUCATION WATCH)
http://pcwatch.blogspot.com (POLITICAL CORRECTNESS WATCH)
http://australian-politics.blogspot.com (AUSTRALIAN POLITICS)
http://snorphty.blogspot.com/ (TONGUE-TIED)
*****************************************
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Jim Hansen and his twin
No comments:
Post a Comment