Thursday, February 18, 2021

Sea level data confirms climate modeling projections were right

Ya gotta laugh. The journal article is "Reconciling global mean and regional sea level change in projections and observations" by Wang et al.

The key sentence in it is "The central values of the observed GMSL (1993–2018) and regional weighted mean (1970–2018) accelerations are larger than projections for RCP2.6 and lie between (or even above) those for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 over 2007–2032, but are not yet statistically different from any scenario"

In other words the data is consistent with even extreme scenarios, implying that no specific scenario predicted it. ALL of the projections were "right". That's a remarkably loose definition of "right". As the showman said: "You pays your money and you takes your choice"

Projections of rising sea levels this century are on the money when tested against satellite and tide-gauge observations, scientists find.

Climate model projections of sea-level rises in the early 21st century are in good agreement with sea level data recorded in the corresponding period, a recent analysis has found.

And the scientists who crunched the numbers say the finding does not bode well for sea level impacts over coming decades if greenhouse gas emissions are not reined in.

In an article published recently in Nature Communications, the scientists from Chinese and Australian institutions including UNSW Sydney examined the global and regional sea level projections of two reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC).

They compared the reports’ projections with the observed global and coastal sea level data gathered from satellites and a network of 177 tide-gauges from the start of the projections in 2007 up to to 2018. The scientists found that the trends of the AR5 and SROCC sea level projections under three different scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions “agree well with satellite and tide-gauge observations over the common period 2007–2018, within the 90 per cent confidence level”.

Study co-author and leading sea-level expert, Professor John Church, says while he thought the projections from modelling would be accurate at the global level, he was pleasantly surprised that they were as accurate at the regional and local level.

“Our analysis implies that the models are close to observations and builds confidence in the current projections for the next several decades,” says Prof. Church, who is part of UNSW’s Climate Change Research Centre.

But he adds a caveat that because the available comparison period is short, at just 11 years, he would be hesitant to extend the same degree of confidence over the longer term – from the end of this century and beyond – where acceleration of ice-sheet contribution to sea-level rise is less understood and could lead to larger rises.

“There remains a potential for larger sea level rises, particularly beyond 2100 for high emission scenarios. Therefore, it is urgent that we still try to meet the commitments of the Paris Agreement by significantly reducing emissions,” Prof. Church says.

The analysis looked at the three different emissions scenarios in the IPCC’s reports that corresponded to three different climate futures depending on what greenhouse gas mitigation strategies were adopted – known as Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios.

The lowest scenario (RCP2.6) examined is for strong mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions, about in line with 2oC of global warming by 2100 but still larger than what is required to meet the Paris Agreement of well below 2oC.

The middle scenario (RCP4.5) requires stabilisation of radiative forcing in the latter half of this century and results in warming well above the Paris Target.

And the highest scenario (RCP8.5) is for large greenhouse gas emissions resulting in ongoing rapid warming and implies a commitment to large sea level rises.

“The analysis of the recent sea level data indicate the world is tracking between RCP4.5 and the worst case scenario of RCP8.5,” Professor Church says.

“If we continue with large ongoing emissions as we are at present, we will commit the world to metres of sea level rise over coming centuries.”

Next the group will attempt to gain a greater understanding of the processes determining regional sea level rise.

Press release from Uni NSW.


Winter Storm Causes Frozen Turbines, Massive Blackouts In Texas

So much for "sustainable" power from windmills. No power at all for many Texans. A coal-fired generator would have none of these problems

A large portion of wind turbines in Texas are frozen due to the historic winter storm conditions in the area.

The freezing wind and ice storms have rendered the turbines inoperable as a contributing source of energy, according to Dallas Morning News. This has led to peak record levels of demand for energy in the state.

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) has asked residents and businesses to conserve energy and limit their electricity use in order to help lower the stress on the compromised electrical grid.

“We are experiencing record-breaking electric demand due to the extreme cold temperatures that have gripped Texas,” said ERCOT President and CEO Bill Magness in the press release.

“At the same time, we are dealing with higher-than-normal generation outages due to frozen wind turbines and limited natural gas supplies available to generating units. We are asking Texans to take some simple, safe steps to lower their energy use during this time,” Magness continued.

President Biden issued a federal state of emergency for Texas on Sunday at the request of Republican Texas Gov. Greg Abbott. Most of the current weather warnings for Texas will stay in place until Tuesday at noon according to

The unusual winter storm has also left millions of Texans without power as of Sunday, with rotating blackouts still ongoing as of Monday morning.

In 2019, wind surpassed coal as an energy source in Texas, ranking just below natural gas, according to CNN. Wind power contributes to 22% of the state’s energy production. Texas continues to lead the nation as the top producer of wind power in the United States.


Expert: Gas Prices Have Surged Since Election, Here's How Much Americans Could Pay Under Biden

Energy industry executives are sounding the alarm on President Joe Biden’s disastrous policies and warning that they will force Americans to pay higher prices for gas and other utilities.

Steven Kopits is a longtime oil industry executive who’s currently the managing director of Princeton Energy Advisors. He’s horrified that since Election Day, gas prices have soared 18 percent, while the price of oil has rocketed almost 50 percent, the Washington Examiner reported Thursday.

Kopits said Biden’s reckless embrace of expensive, ineffective “green-energy” initiatives will hurt all Americans financially and could also damage the president politically.

“Biden has substantial political risk heading in the 2022 midterms,” he told the Examiner.

“He would do well to articulate a more balanced energy package because we may well see gasoline prices above $4 a gallon, and Republicans will not hesitate to finger the moratorium on leasing as the cause,” Kopits said.

Dan Naatz is a senior vice president at the Petroleum Association of America. He said Biden has shown that he doesn’t care about American workers based on his destructive move to cancel the Keystone XL Pipeline, resulting in the loss of 11,000 jobs.

“The Biden administration’s plan to obliterate the jobs of American oil and gas explorers and producers has been on clear display with cancellation of the Keystone XL Pipeline, the initial announcement of a 60-day freeze on federal leasing and permitting,” Naatz told the Examiner.

Another industry expert who chose to remain anonymous said Biden’s epic incompetence has dramatically set the country back and made it less competitive on the world stage.

“In four years [under President Donald Trump], we had made the U.S. energy-independent and denied the bad guys the ability to control global oil prices,” he said. “The Democrats undo it in two weeks. Just incredible.”

Last month, Biden came under fire after he halted new drilling permits on federal lands on his second day in office.

In the lead-up to the election, the career politician had flip-flopped on fracking depending on which audience he addressed.

Biden opposed fracking when pandering to the far-left faction of the Democratic Party, which claims fracking is bad for the environment. However, he supported fracking when pandering to moderates.

Once he got installed as president, Biden blocked oil and gas drilling on public lands, freezing such leases for at least 60 days.

Energy experts have repeatedly warned that a ban on fracking would dramatically increase energy costs and decimate millions of jobs.

Last month, Marty Durbin of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s Global Energy Institute issued a statement warning that Biden’s move to “impose an indefinite ban on new energy production on federal lands and waters is bad policy and counterproductive to the goals of supporting the economy and combatting climate change.”

Other GEI executives said banning fracking will erode America’s competitive edge, compromise national security and cause energy prices to soar.

“By 2022, 14.8 million jobs could be lost, gasoline prices and electricity prices could almost double, and each American family could see their cost of living increase by almost $4,000,” the Global Energy Institute warned.

Karen Harbert, a former GEI executive, is the CEO of the American Gas Association. She said a ban on fracking is a dangerous slippery slope on multiple fronts.

“It’s easy for politicians and activists to call for an end to hydraulic fracturing, but now we know what the consequences could be,” Harbert said.

“Without fracking, the U.S. would surrender our status as a global energy superpower. … Beyond that, banning fracking would make America much more reliant on foreign sources of energy, weakening our national security.”

Harbert warned: “Every American family could face higher prices for the energy they consume and the products and services they buy, and almost 15 million Americans could be out of work. These extreme and irresponsible proposals should not be considered.”


A new $20m hydrogen plant in Australia is part of an ambitious green agenda

We read: "LAVO™ is a solar sponge, using patented hydride to store hydrogen in metal alloy to enable the world’s first, long term capture, hydrogen battery within a secure vessel."

From what I can gather this is an extremely inefficient way to store low voltage DC current. Who would want that? It's a clever way to bypass the need for a massive pressure vessel but the "battery" is a massive object too and it would be hard to use the output

An Aussie firm that has pioneered one of the world’s first hydrogen energy storage systems plans to establish a foothold just outside Brisbane.

We learned on Monday that Sydney-based tech outfit LAVO expects to start production next year at a $20 million plant at Springfield.

Work on the facility, which will kick off later this year and create about 200 jobs, is just one part of a larger and highly ambitious green agenda promoted by Springfield City Group co-founder and boss Maha Sinnathamby.

Costing nearly $35,000, LAVO’s batteries are about the size of a big refrigerator, last up to 30 years and can be connected to solar panels, using the power to create hydrogen from water. The company also makes hydrogen-powered household goods.

They are part of a fast-growing global shift to renewable power, with the current $US150 billion a year spent on hydrogen expected to soar to $US2.5 trillion by 2050.

LAVO’s new outpost will be based at Springfield’s 40ha Vicinity business park and help the city achieve the lofty goal of producing more energy than it consumes by 2038.

“LAVO has the first and only commercial-ready hydrogen energy storage system in the world designed for everyday use by residential homes and businesses,’’ Sinnathamby said.

“We will work closely with LAVO to identify co-development opportunities, including the integration of LAVO technology into utility scale solar farms developed in Springfield City.”

Late last year Sinnathamby, in collaboration with French power group ENGIE, vowed to commit $3.1 billion to make Springfield “the world’s greenest city’’.

That means the current population of 46,000—which is expected to triple over the next 20 years—will all get their power from renewable sources and have access to electric vehicle charging stations.

Hydrogen-powered buses will provide public transport, solar panels are set to proliferate and at least a third of the city should remain as green space.

Meanwhile, Sinnathamby is also ramping up pressure on the federal government to help fund a range of initiatives that could create 20,000 jobs and help kickstart the post-COVID recovery.

He lobbied deputy PM Michael McCormack in person late last week for Commonwealth financial backing for at least a dozen shovel-ready projects in a planned new 120ha “knowledge and innovation district’’ expected to pump around $12 billion in to the economy by 2026.

McCormack, the Minister Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Development, toured Springfield for the first time and pored over a model of the city with Sinnathamby and his colleagues.

Accompanied by Senator Paul Scarr, he also met with a group of two dozen players in the health, education, defence and IT spaces across Queensland.

McCormack seemed pretty impressed with what he called the “national and internationally significant development going on in Greater Springfield’’.



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