Friday, March 02, 2018

Tell a big enough lie often enough...

There's nothing new in the guff below and a lot of lies instead.  He starts out claiming the ozone hole is dangereous to us but it has just fluctuated randomly since it was first observed.  It is neither increasing nor decreasing.  And the rest of his assertions are on a par with that.

A top climate scientist is warning that climate change will wipe out all of humanity unless we stop using fossil fuels over the next five years.

In a recent speech at the University of Chicago, James Anderson — a professor of atmospheric chemistry at Harvard University — warned that climate change is drastically pushing Earth back to the Eocene Epoch from 33 million BCE, when there was no ice on either pole. Anderson says current pollution levels have already catastrophically depleted atmospheric ozone levels, which absorb 98 percent of ultraviolet rays, to levels not seen in 12 million years.

Anderson’s assessment of humanity’s timeline for action is likely accurate, given that his diagnosis and discovery of Antarctica’s ozone holes led to the Montreal Protocol of 1987. Anderson’s research was recognized by the United Nations in September of 1997. He subsequently received the United Nations Vienna Convention Award for Protection of the Ozone Layer in 2005, and has been recognized by numerous universities and academic bodies for his research.

While some governments have made commitments to reduce carbon emissions (Germany has pledged to cut 95 percent of carbon emissions by 2050), Anderson warned that those measures were insufficient to stop the extinction of humanity by way of a rapidly changing climate. Instead, Anderson is calling for a Marshall Plan-style endeavor in which all of the world takes extreme measures to transition off of fossil fuels completely within the next five years.

Recovery is all but impossible, he argued, without a World War II-style transformation of industry—an acceleration of the effort to halt carbon pollution and remove it from the atmosphere, and a new effort to reflect sunlight away from the earth’s poles.


Why scientists have modelled climate change right up to the year 2300

This would be reasonable if their models showed some correspondence with reality.  But the models have predicted nothing of 21st century temperature movements so far so why should we accept any further predictions from them?

The seas will continue to rise for 300 years. That’s the conclusion of a new study, published in Nature Communications, which projects how much the sea level will rise under varying degrees of success in tackling climate change right up to the year 2300.

But 2300 is almost three centuries from now. Three centuries ago the industrial revolution hadn’t even started. This raises the question of whether, when considering present-day climate policy, there is any value at all in considering such distant futures.

After all, the Paris Agreement on climate change hasn’t set its global temperature rise targets beyond the end of the current century. And even this appears too remote a horizon to motivate emissions cuts in the near future. Therefore, Paris focuses on five-year climate policy cycles starting in 2018, which are more in line with typical political and business cycles, and in tune with our everyday concerns.

Nonetheless, multiple climate studies do consider projections of the far future. For instance, one paper estimated that, if we fail to tackle climate change, the Arctic Ocean could be ice-free all year round somewhere between 2150 and 2250. Another study looked at carbon emissions from thawing permafrost as far out as the year 2500.

The obvious criticism is that such work is mere fiction, driven by the intellectual curiosity of a small group of highly specialised scientists, rather than anything relevant to daily life. And in any case, critics might argue, won’t we figure something out in the next century or two that could tackle climate change and prove all the predictions of doom and gloom unfounded?

As is often the case, the truth is a little bit more complex.

The first thing to note is that a certain amount of climate change is already “locked in”. Our use of energy and other resources is not going to slow down any time soon, as poorer countries race to industrialise and catch up with the global leaders, while more affluent nations aim to maintain and further improve their living standards. Most people can relate to these aspirations, even if the upshot is they ensure that global emissions stay at their current high levels.

Solar and wind power will of course help, but the reality is that such technologies are still nowhere near enough to radically alter the link between emissions and economic expansion. Despite the renewables boom, 2017 saw a 2% rise in global emissions following a three-year plateau. Experts argue that making serious emissions cuts will require much more ambitious efforts across nearly all economic activities, including energy, urbanisation, infrastructure, transport, heavy industries and land use.

This brings us back to the very long-term scenarios used by climate scientists. These scenarios are actually based on credible assumptions about a large set of long-term socio-economic and technological drivers that define contrasting futures for the world as a whole. And it turns out that things which will affect future emissions and climate, like the rates of technological progress, or population and wealth growth, are likely going to be constrained within a reasonably predictable range. Even if one includes the possibility of “game-changing technologies”, for example a hypothetical new generation of much cheaper and more effective batteries for electric cars, the world is almost certainly going to stay within this range of scenarios.


A California Judge May Have Just Sunk All Those Climate Lawsuits Against Energy Companies

A California district court ruled Wednesday that two lawsuits to hold energy companies responsible for weather affected by climate change are more appropriate for federal court.

Judge William Alsup sent lawsuits from San Fransisco and Oakland into federal court, stating that the issue at hand was outside the state’s prevue. The move, sought by defendant fossil fuel companies, may spell disaster for the plaintiffs who argued the lawsuits should be judged under California common law.

“The scope of the worldwide predicament demands the most comprehensive view available, which in our American court system means our federal courts and our federal common law,” the ruling states, according to a Manufacturers Accountability Project (MAP) press release. “A patchwork of 50 different answers to the same fundamental global issue would be unworkable.”

The venue of three other lawsuits against energy companies are currently being considered by California District Court Judge Vince Chhabria. No indication of when Chhabria’s ruling should be expected has been given. Defendant companies have indicated they will appeal a decision that places the lawsuits in state court, however, according to Climate Liability News.

MAP, an industry initiative to uncover ties between environmental activists, lawyers and public and political figures against fossil fuels, said Alsup’s ruling “is a significant setback” to the plaintiffs and a sign that the lawsuits are “a legal dead end.”

“Precedent shows that similar cases heard in federal court have been unsuccessful for plaintiffs looking to pin the global challenge of climate change on manufacturers,” MAP Executive Director Lindsey de la Torre said in a statement.


National Grid warns UK is 'running out of gas' as England is put on snow red alert - Britain's highest ever weather warning - for the first time as South West faces almost TWO FEET of snow and thousands of travellers in Scotland are stranded

National Grid has warned it may not have enough gas to meet demand in Britain today, as sub-zero temperatures, icy blasts and 'blizzard-like' conditions left drivers stranded for more than 13 hours and airport passengers stuck.

The Met Office has put England under a red weather warning for snow for the first time ever, amid concerns that up to 1ft 8in could fall in the South West along with very strong winds leading to severe drifting.

Storm Emma, rolling in from the Atlantic, is meeting the Beast from the East's chilly Russia air - causing further widespread snowfall and bitter temperatures after the mercury fell as low as -16C (3F) last night.

On the first day of meteorological spring today, temperatures will drop to -11C (12F) during the day as Scotland also remains under a 'red alert' - and London Paddington train station was closed due to 'severe weather'.

British Red Cross workers provided blankets for people stranded at Glasgow Airport, which has cancelled all flights until at least 3pm today, and conditions could worsen with 60mph gusts bringing 'blizzard-like' weather.

Drivers on the M80 near Glasgow were stranded for up to 13 hours as others abandoned their vehicles, while police said 'most roads' in Lincolnshire were impassable and even snowploughs could not get through.

British Red Cross emergency response volunteers have been at Glasgow Airport supplying bedding for up to 100 people

Virgin Trains East Coast warns anyone travelling north of Newcastle should defer their journey.

TfL Rail cancels or amends services.

Northern says severe weather has left routes blocked, with delays and cancellations across whole network.

East Midlands Trains also reported alterations and cancellations.

Scottish airports have been hit by the heavy snow, with no flights to and from Glasgow Airport until 3pm.

Edinburgh Airport tweeted that most airlines had cancelled services until lunchtime.

London Gatwick Airport said it was expecting a 'large number' of cancellations and delays

London Heathrow Airport urged passengers to check with their airline before travelling

Southern trains said that due to an 8ft icicle in a tunnel at Balcolmbe, services between Brighton and Gatwick Airport were subject to delay, although engineers were working to remove it.

Major UK airports saw many flights cancelled, including Glasgow which halted all routes until 3pm today. British Red Cross emergency response volunteers were at the airport supplying bedding for up to 100 people.

Lincolnshire Police have warned people that 'most roads' in the county are impassable, and urged people not to make journeys 'unless absolutely necessary'.

The force's control room tweeted that the weather was especially bad in rural areas, adding: 'We are receiving reports that remote villages are totally cut off under 2ft of snow.'

Ten RAF vehicles are going to be used to try to take nurses and doctors to vulnerable patients in the county.

Collisions on both the north and southbound carriageways of the A34 near Tothill Services have left the road closed in both directions, South Central Ambulance Service said.

Hampshire Police urged drivers to avoid the area as the closure would be 'in place for some time'.


Australian Greens call for their own by-election candidate to be axed

She is behaving like a typical far-Leftist. She's a snake and snakes bite

The Greens candidate attempting to win the seat of Batman and end a century of Labor representation in Melbourne’s north is accused by members of her party of intimidation, bullying, branch stacking, spreading “reckless false statements’’ and cultivating ALP-style factionalism within the party’s largest branch.

A complaint lodged by 18 Greens campaign volunteers, office-holders and elected representatives calls on the party’s state executive to disendorse Alex Bhathal as the Batman candidate and expel her from the party, warning that her election to federal parliament would pose a serious risk to the party’s future growth and unity.

The party said the complaint had been considered and dealt with.

The complainants are current or former members of Ms Bhathal’s Darebin branch, which controls preselections for the Darebin council, the state seats of Northcote and Preston, and the now winnable federal seat of Batman.

They are Greens who supported her previous campaigns, who ­attended branch meetings and party functions with her and who, since the 2016 federal election when she ran and lost in Batman for a fifth time, are concerned at her “increasingly malicious’’ ­behaviour towards anyone she perceives as disloyal.

The 101-page complaint and covering letter, seen by The Australian, depicts a power-hungry, perennial candidate who ruthlessly uses proxies to stifle debate, manipulate internal party procedures and undermine fellow members. It accuses her of ­“serious, repeated, often wilful misconduct’’ and demands the ­allegations be fully investigated.

“This misconduct has included systematic intimidation, and ­malicious and reckless false statements about members and party decisions,’’ the complaint reads.

“The attached statements ­include instances of direct ­intimidation and victimisation on the part of Alex, as well as the wider, more systematic operation of her political machine, which has been used to undermine ­consensus decision-making ­processes, attack and harass members considered to be ‘in the way’ and we believe, to recruit members for the purpose of swaying preselection results.

Alex’s behaviour has escalated markedly in the past year. Her tactics have become more aggressive and ruthless, her breaches of the code of conduct more flagrant and brazen, her ­behaviour many magnitudes more destructive. We believe she must be held to account and cannot be allowed to continue on as a representative and member of the Victorian Greens.’’

The complaint was made to the party’s state executive on January 15, two weeks before Labor’s David Feeney retired from the parliament and triggered the Batman by-election — a knife-edge contest in which early voting began this week.

The complainants, who ­requested their identities be concealed from Ms Bhathal, say the party’s interests would be better served by the Greens losing ­Batman than Ms Bhathal winning it. This would enable the party to preselect a new candidate for the next federal election.

It is understood Ms Bhathal has not been shown the full complaint. She declined to respond to the allegations and invited Batman voters to make their own judgment.

“The people of Batman have over 30 years experience of my character and I have faith that my community will rely on their first hand knowledge of me over the decades,’’ she said last night.

Ms Bhathal was strongly backed by the three Victorian Greens in federal parliament: Adam Bandt, Richard Di Natale and Janet Rice.

“Alex convincingly won the preselection,’’ they said in a joint statement to The Australian. “She is held in the highest regard by members and supporters within the broader community.

“It is disappointing that ­despite this support and the party resolving this matter, someone who is unhappy with the outcome has taken it to the media.’’

The co-convener of the Victorian Greens, Colin Jacobs, said the complaint had been considered and dealt with. “We take all allegations of this nature seriously,” he said. “The party considered these matters and found the ­material presented lacked sufficient evidence to reconsider Alex’s preselection.’’

This is disputed by the complainants. They say the allegations raised against Ms Bhathal prompted a review of her endorsement for Batman by a three-­person committee but were not properly investigated by the party.

Ms Bhathal is a Tampa Green: the cohort of political activists who joined the Greens in the lead-up to the 2001 election motivated less by environmental concerns than ­opposition to immigration and border protection policies.

When she first ran for the Greens in Batman in 2001 it was an unwinnable, “dead-red’’ seat. In every election she has stood as a candidate, she has eroded Labor’s hold on it.

In 2016, after Mr Feeney ran a train-wreck campaign, Ms Bhathal got to within 1853 votes of ­entering federal parliament. She works as a social worker, lives in Preston, is a mother of two and is well known in the electorate.

Some of the allegations raised against her appear frivolous. She is accused of standing in front of ­another Greens representative at a media doorstop so she wouldn’t appear on TV, of passive aggression, of “unfriending’’ a party member on Facebook and in typical Greens-speak, of projecting, triggering and making the Darebin branch an unsafe space. The more serious allegations are:

● That she recruited a dramatic influx of new members to the Darebin branch early last year to stack the numbers in favour of her own preselection and marginalise perceived political opponents.

● That she orchestrated a campaign to undermine the preselection chances of City of Darebin councillor Susanne Newton in the state seat of Preston.

● That she waged a ruthless, intercine war against four Greens members of the Darebin council and used her social media accounts to support non-Greens candidates running against them.

The complaint does not contain grievous instances of bullying or harassment but documents a corrosive pattern of alleged behaviour including late-night phone calls, incessant text messaging and malicious backgrounding, reducing party members to tears and creating a bitterly divided Darebin branch. None of the allegations has been proven.`

The Greens state executive and its federal leadership have backed Ms Bhathal as the party’s best chance of securing a second lower-house seat in the federal parliament.

Labor has preselected Ged Kearney, the president of the ACTU, in an attempt to hold the seat. The Batman by-election will be held on March 17.




Preserving the graphics:  Most graphics on this site are hotlinked from elsewhere.  But hotlinked graphics sometimes have only a short life -- as little as a week in some cases.  After that they no longer come up.  From January 2011 on, therefore, I have posted a monthly copy of everything on this blog to a separate site where I can host text and graphics together -- which should make the graphics available even if they are no longer coming up on this site.  See  here or here


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