Wednesday, June 12, 2013

Prof. Murry Salby’s Presentation In Hamburg: Climate “Model World” Diverges Starkly From “Real World”

Die kalte Sonne website here has just posted the video presentation of Murry Salby in Hamburg in April. If anyone ever demolished the dubious CO2 AGW science, it’s Salby!

Most of the presentation is very mathematical and technical. But the last 10 minutes sums everything up very nicely for the laypersons.

Die kalte Sonne writes:

"Prof. Murry Salby, climate scientist at Macquarie University of Sydney, made a presentation in Hamburg on April 18th as part of a European tour. Prof. Salby is author of the textbook Physics of the Atmosphere and Climate (Cambridge University Press) and Fundamentals of Atmospheric Physics (Academic Press) and is renowned worldwide as an astrophysicist. He recently caused excitement with new findings on the relationship of the 12C- and 13C isotopes and the development of CO2-concentration. From the findings he concluded that the anthropogenic emissions only had a slight impact on the global CO2-concentrations. They are are mainly a consequence of temperature changes. This relationship is known up to now only from the warming phases after the last ice ages. Prof. Salby extends this relationship to our current climate development."

The video recording of the presentation, which was organised by the host Helmut Schmidt University, is now available at Youtube (above).”

Near the end (1:02:50) Salby on CO2 and temperature:

"Their divergence over the last decade and a half is now unequivocal. In the models global temperature tracks CO2 almost perfectly. In the real world it clearly doesn’t.”

At  1:04:05 mark he sums it up neatly:

"CO2 then evolves not like temperature, as it does in the model, but like the integral of temperature. In dotted blue is the integral of observed temperature. It closely tracks observed CO2 – even after the 1990s when the observed record of CO2 and temperature clearly diverged. If CO2 tracks the integral of temperature, which it clearly does, it cannot track temperature, which it clearly doesn’t.

In the model, CO2 and temperature are related directly. In the real world they are also related, but differently. The distinctly different relationship between CO2 and global temperature represents a fundamental difference in the global energy balance between its evolution in the model world and the real world. If the global energy balance is wrong, everything else is window dressing.”

The points of Salby’s presentation lead to the following implications:

- In the Real World global temperature is not controlled exclusively by CO2, as it is in the Model World.

- In significant part, however, CO2 is controlled by Global Temperature, as it is in the Proxy Record.”

At the end of the presentation, Salby implies, quoting Richard Feynman, that CO2 science today can be described as “Cult Science”.  He sums up quoting Feynman: “If it differs from observations, then it’s wrong. That’s all there is to it.”


Shale could fuel UK for 10 years, say experts

Britain can extract enough shale gas to meet its needs for almost a decade and can also produce shale oil, according to the most promising official estimate so far of the industry’s potential.

The US government's Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in a report that it now estimated Britain’s “technically recoverable shale resources” at 26 trillion cubic feet (tcf), compared with annual UK gas consumption of about 3 tcf.

The EIA also said for the first time that it believed Britain had shale oil, estimating that some 700m barrels could be extracted.

The figures indicate the volumes that the UK should be able to extract from the ground using current technology, but do not take into account whether or not it will be economic to do so.

The report warns of opposition to shale gas extraction in the UK and says fracking “got off to an abysmal start” after Cuadrilla caused earth tremors near Blackpool in 2011.

Fracking involves blasting water and chemicals into the ground to “hydraulically fracture” the rock, extracting the gas or oil trapped within it.

The official figures will nevertheless be a significant boon for the industry, which has seen rising optimism on the back of a series of estimates from shale gas drillers of the volume of gas “in place” – the total amount that could be in the ground. The volume of gas that can actually be extracted is invariably much smaller.

In a 2011 study, the EIA put Britain’s technically recoverable shale gas resources at a more modest 20 tcf, while a 2010 official estimate by the British Geological Survey (BGS) suggested recoverable reserves of 5.3 tcf. The BGS is working on a new study that could say there is as much as 1,800 tcf of gas in the ground.

In its report on Monday the EIA said its “unrisked” estimate of shale gas in Britain was 623 tcf, while its “risked” estimate was 134 tcf.

Fracking company Cuadrilla estimates there could be 200 tcf “in place” in the Bowland shale of Lancashire, while IGas recently increased its best estimate for gas in its licences in the north-west to 100 tcf.

The EIA report warned of a series of challenges that might face shale gas development in the UK.

“Compared with North America, the shale geology of the UK is considerably more complex, while drilling and completion costs for shale wells are substantially higher,” it said.

“While the UK’s shale resource base appears substantial, commercial levels of shale production are yet to be established.”

The EIA also noted that “political opposition to shale development is greater in the UK than in Poland”, which is seen as the leader in European shale gas exploration efforts.

“Hydraulic fracturing got off to an abysmal start,” it said, noting that “the UK’s first shale production test well triggered small local earthquakes”. This resulted in an 18-month government ban on fracking, which was lifted last year.

The EIA report said that shale oil and gas were “globally abundant”, estimating there were 345bn barrels of technically recoverable shale oil – 10pc of the world’s crude oil.


Repeal, Don't Expand, Ethanol Mandate

Sometimes, big government becomes so big that even good conservatives find themselves unwittingly advocating expansions of government in response to its failures. That's precisely what U. S. Rep. Pete Olson (R-Texas) is doing with the new "solution" he has offered to the egregious humanitarian and economic scandal “The Ethanol Mandate”, officially known at the Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS).

In the wake of rising food and feedstock prices caused by corn-based ethanol, Olson and several other members of Congress think the answer is to expand the RFS to include ethanol derived from natural gas. The result would be a spike in natural gas prices, hurting manufacturers and consumers.

The current ethanol mandate is a disaster and serves as a poster child of what happens when government attempts to pick winners and losers in the marketplace. It has already given us the embarrassment of EPA mandates for cellulosic biofuels that don't even exist, fraudulent trading of fake renewable credits, and approval of fuels with 15 percent ethanol that can damage engines (and which car warranties won't cover). We are It's now approaching a so-called "blend wall" where it will be physically impossible to blend the ever-increasing required volumes of renewable fuels into the total U.S. fuel supply.

The biggest scandal is the impact the RFS had on the food supply. Last year, 40 percent of the U.S. corn crop was burned as ethanol, a record high for our country. And combined with the drought conditions we experienced, livestock and poultry producers suffered.

Two Democratic governors — Bev Purdue of North Carolina and Mike Beebe of Arkansas — officially petitioned the EPA to grant a waiver from the RFS. They were joined by a bipartisan group of 26 senators and 156 House members.

A study by professors at Purdue University quantified the price impact, finding that a strong waiver could reduce the price of corn by as much as $1.30 per bushel.

Jose Graziano da Silva, the director-general of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization weighed in warning: "An immediate, temporary suspension of that mandate would give some respite to the market and allow more of the crop to be channeled towards food and feed uses."

But the EPA said no – so the food burning continues unchecked.

Rep. Olson deserves credit for supporting full repeal; however, he is unfortunately dividing his efforts by introducing legislation that actually expands the mandate. The Domestic Alternative Fuels Act (H.R. 1959), would expand the RFS by allowing natural gas to qualify as a renewable fuel.

That might relieve pressure on corn prices, but only by artificially boosting demand for natural gas — driving up the price of a vital feedstock and energy source that's powering the resurgence of American manufacturing.

It’s directly at cross-purposes with the idea of promoting "renewable fuels," which were supposed to be anything but fossil fuels like natural gas. The theory is that we’re running out of oil and gas domestically, and alternatives would displace imports. But American energy security is no longer in peril, with booming oil and gas production thanks to technological advances in hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling. We're leading the world in petroleum production already and projections show continued increases. So why convert natural gas to ethanol? Why mandate ethanol use at all? What's the point?

The motivation of some corporate supporters of H.R. 1959 may be to artificially increase natural gas prices that have fallen with the production boom. While low gas prices have been a huge boon to Americans paying their home heating bills and to manufacturers, some major natural gas producers aren't as appreciative of lower prices for their product.

They tried, and failed, to support massive direct subsidies through the so-called Nat Gas Act until it crashed into a brick-wall of principled opposition from limited government conservatives. Its lead sponsor, John Sullivan of Oklahoma, even lost in a primary over the issue. Olson's bill could, for some, represent a backdoor way to accomplish the same dubious goal of higher natural gas prices.

The bottom line is that government should not be imposing mandates on the fuel supply, and as long as it does, we'll face negative economic consequences. The RFS can't be fixed by being expanded; it must be repealed.


New Study: Polar Bear Population Growing Despite Declining Sea Ice

Exciting news about polar bears in eastern Canada: the peer-reviewed paper on the Davis Strait subpopulation study has finally been published (Peacock et al. 2013). It concludes that despite sea ice having declined since the 1970s, polar bear numbers in Davis Strait have not only increased to a greater density (bears per 1,000 km2) than other seasonal-ice subpopulations (like Western Hudson Bay), but it may now have reached its ‘carrying capacity.’

This is great news. But where is the shouting from the roof-tops? This peer-reviewed paper (with its juicy details of method and analysis results), considered by some to be the only legitimate format for communicating science, was published February 19, 2013. No press release was issued that I could find and consequently, there was no news coverage. Funny, that.

There was a bit of shouting back in 2007 when the study ended and the preliminary population count was released – polar bear biologist Mitch Taylor is quoted in the Telegraph (March 9 2007) as saying:

“There aren’t just a few more bears. There are a hell of a lot more bears.”

There was also a CBC news item in January 2007 and a Nunatsiaq|Online report in October 2009 when the official government report was completed. But these were all based on preliminary information and focused on the population increase only.

This new paper (Peacock et al. 2013) reveals that the story in Davis Strait is about more than simple population growth. Small wonder no one is drawing attention to it.

Davis Strait is most southerly subpopulation of polar bears (Fig. 1), because some bears move down as far as southern Newfoundland (470N) when sea ice is at its maximum in the spring. Davis Strait, in total area, is almost as large as the three Hudson Bay subpopulations together – Western Hudson Bay, Southern Hudson Bay and Foxe Basin – according to area data given by Vongraven and Peacock (2011). However, a lot of that area is land and not all of the water is ice-covered, even in late spring. The actual “suitable ice habitat in spring” (determined by Taylor and Lee 1995) averages only 420,100 km2, which is about 16% of the total area.

[Note that Davis Strait is one of the subpopulations heavily impacted by whalers between the 1890s and the 1930s (see previous post here), so bears in this region have probably been recovering since then (discussed previously here).]

The new study, by Lily Peacock, Mitch Taylor and two other colleagues, compared data from mark-recapture studies done in 1974-1979 to those undertaken in 2005- 2007. They state that in Davis Strait, “the overall amount of sea ice declined and breakup has become progressively earlier” since the 1970s.

However, in spite of this decline in sea ice, they estimated the number of bears at about 2,158, a substantial increase over the estimate of about 1,400 bears in 1993 (Derocher et al. 1998:27 – see previous discussion here).

Peacock et al. note that the density of bears in Davis Strait comes out to 5.1 bears/1,000 km2 of sea ice habitat, which is “greater than polar bear densities in other seasonal-ice subpopulations, which are approximately 3.5 bears/1,000 km2 (Taylor and Lee 1995).” Bears in Hudson Bay, for example, also live in a ‘seasonal-ice’ habitat.


RSS Close To 30-Year Average

I did a quick post yesterday on the May numbers on RSS, which fell sharply to 0.139C. The RSS figures are anomalies from the 1979-98 baseline, and I pointed out that, against a baseline of 1981-2010, current temperatures are now only 0.039C higher.

I also mentioned that the 1981-2010 average had been artificially depressed by the two eruptions, El Chichon in 1982 and Pinatubo in 1991.

The above graph illustrates the effect these eruptions had. It is also worth pointing out that El Chichon coincided with the large El Nino of 1982/3. A paper by Alan Robock found :-

The eruption took place just as the largest El Nino of the century so far was beginning. (In fact the volcanic cloud in the stratosphere fooled the satellite sensors which monitor ocean temperatures into thinking ocean temperatures were normal, whereas they had warmed substantially. Thus, scientists were not aware of the El Nino until months after it had started.

As the MEI graph below shows, the 1982 El Nino was comparable to the 1998 one. Therefore, without the El Chichon eruption, the temperatures for 1982 & 83 would have been much higher than average.

Take the two volcanoes out of the equation, and it is clear that there is nothing unusual about current temperatures.


Australian lake sees little change in 7,500 years

Looks like "climate change" is not very global (or not very great) after all.  Politics aside, however, it really is a beautiful lake

Scientists in Australia say they've found a unique lake that appears to be exactly as it was 7,500 years ago, untouched by climate change for thousands of years.

Blue Lake -- one of the largest of a number of lakes inside Blue Lake National Park on North Stradbroke Island off the coast of Queensland, Australia -- has remained relatively stable and resilient for millennia.

A group of researchers from the University of Adelaide studied the lake's water discharge and quality, and its fossil pollen and algae, to complete a historical record of the lake over the past several thousand years. They also compared photos of the lake over the past 117 years and published their findings in the academic journal Freshwater Biology.

The lake is so clear that even though it's more than 10 metres deep, you can see clear to the bottom, the study's lead resarcher Cameron Barr.  "It's like God's bathtub," Barr said in an interview. "It's beautiful. It's absolutely beautiful."

The island where the lake lies is a sand island, and Blue Lake's water is continuously replenished every 35 days, he added.

"We know that there have been variations in climate in the region including North Stradbroke Island over recent decades, but during that time the depth, shoreline and water chemistry of Blue Lake has displayed little variation," Dr Barr told the newspaper.

It has remained in its current state even as the rest of the region has shifted toward a drier climate, he added.

"It appears that Blue Lake has been an important climate 'refuge' for the freshwater biota of the region, and is in the same condition now as it was 7,500 years ago," Dr Barr said. "With appropriate management, the lake could continue relatively unchanged for hundreds, possibly thousands of years to come."




Preserving the graphics:  Graphics hotlinked to this site sometimes have only a short life and if I host graphics with blogspot, the graphics sometimes get shrunk down to illegibility.  From January 2011 on, therefore, I have posted a monthly copy of everything on this blog to a separate site where I can host text and graphics together -- which should make the graphics available even if they are no longer coming up on this site.  See  here and here


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