Tuesday, April 23, 2013

New Scafetta sea level paper separates and recognizes the natural oscillations behind background acceleration in tide gauge records

The result is that the real sea level accelerations are very small.  Some of the major papers claiming catastrophic sea level rise for the 21 century are strongly rebutted

Multi-scale dynamical analysis (MSDA) of sea level records versus PDO, AMO, and NAO indexes

N. Scafetta


Herein I propose a multi-scale dynamical analysis to facilitate the physical interpretation of tide gauge records. The technique uses graphical diagrams. It is applied to six secular-long tide gauge records representative of the world oceans: Sydney, Pacific coast of Australia; Fremantle, Indian Ocean coast of Australia; New York City, Atlantic coast of USA; Honolulu, US state of Hawaii; San Diego, US state of California; and Venice, Mediterranean Sea, Italy. For comparison, an equivalent analysis is applied to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index and to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index. Finally, a global reconstruction of sea level (Jevrejeva et al. in Geophys Res Lett 35:L08715, 2008) and a reconstruction of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index (Luterbacher et al. in Geophys Res Lett 26:2745–2748, 1999) are analyzed and compared: both sequences cover about three centuries from 1700 to 2000. The proposed methodology quickly highlights oscillations and teleconnections among the records at the decadal and multidecadal scales. At the secular time scales tide gauge records present relatively small (positive or negative) accelerations, as found in other studies (Houston and Dean in J Coast Res 27:409–417, 2011). On the contrary, from the decadal to the secular scales (up to 110-year intervals) the tide gauge accelerations oscillate significantly from positive to negative values mostly following the PDO, AMO and NAO oscillations. In particular, the influence of a large quasi 60–70 year natural oscillation is clearly demonstrated in these records. The multiscale dynamical evolutions of the rate and of the amplitude of the annual seasonal cycle of the chosen six tide gauge records are also studied.

Climate Dynamics, April 2013.

Glorious Lenin's birthday Earth Day, comrades

From Oleg the Armenian

A day of action to save the earth from farmers, ranchers, mining, timber, oil, chemical companies, and anyone else who seeks to utilize the planet's resources to enhance, enrich, and extend the lives of people worldwide.

Characterized by the media's massive awareness drive to (a) remind the world that U.S. capitalists are raping the earth, stealing its riches, and causing environmental problems; (b) advocate a greater government control of land, resources, and industries; and (c) increase the ever growing white male guilt levels. A great way to hijack spring cleaning and politicize the rebirth of nature.


The hate is never far beneath the surface with the Green/Left

Ira Einhorn was on stage hosting the first Earth Day event at the Fairmount Park in Philadelphia on April 22, 1970. Seven years later, police raided his closet and found the "composted" body of his ex-girlfriend inside a trunk.

A self-proclaimed environmental activist, Einhorn made a name for himself among ecological groups during the 1960s and '70s by taking on the role of a tie-dye-wearing ecological guru and Philadelphia’s head hippie. With his long beard and gap-toothed smile, Einhorn — who nicknamed himself "Unicorn" because his German-Jewish last name translates to "one horn" —advocated flower power, peace and free love to his fellow students at the University of Pennsylvania. He also claimed to have helped found Earth Day.

But the charismatic spokesman who helped bring awareness to environmental issues and preached against the Vietnam War — and any violence — had a secret dark side. When his girlfriend of five years, Helen "Holly" Maddux, moved to New York and broke up with him, Einhorn threatened that he would throw her left-behind personal belongings onto the street if she didn't come back to pick them up.

And so on Sept. 9, 1977, Maddux went back to the apartment that she and Einhorn had shared in Philadelphia to collect her things, and was never seen again. When Philadelphia police questioned Einhorn about her mysterious disappearance several weeks later, he claimed that she had gone out to the neighborhood co-op to buy some tofu and sprouts and never returned.

It wasn't until 18 months later that investigators searched Einhorn's apartment after one of his neighbors complained that a reddish-brown, foul-smelling liquid was leaking from the ceiling directly below Einhorn's bedroom closet. Inside the closet, police found Maddux's beaten and partially mummified body stuffed into a trunk that had also been packed with Styrofoam, air fresheners and newspapers.

After his arrest, Einhorn jumped bail and spent decades evading authorities by hiding out in Ireland, Sweden, the United Kingdom and France. After 23 years, he was finally extradited to the United States from France and put on trial. Taking the stand in his own defense, Einhorn claimed that his ex-girlfriend had been killed by CIA agents who framed him for the crime because he knew too much about the agency's paranormal military research. He was convicted of murdering Maddux and is currently serving a life sentence.


Stop Me Before I Buy Food

There is no problem too flimsy for California's nanny lawmakers, as witnessed by the many laws that state solons have proposed to keep constituents from getting free plastic bags at the grocery. Those teensy plastic bags are cheap. They're lightweight. They're energy-efficient. People use them a lot, which means that they can end up as litter. That can be ugly. So Sacramento Democrats keep concocting bills to outlaw their idea of blight -- not the homeless and not unemployment but bags. When Sacramento lawmakers see an opportunity to stick it to employed people who buy things, nothing can stop them.
State Sen. Alex Padilla has a bill similar to a bill by Assemblyman Marc Levine that would ban grocers and big retailers from giving away single-use plastic bags but would allow them to charge for recycled paper bags.

"The goal and purpose behind the legislation is to wean us off of single-use bags period," Padilla told me. Single-use bags, he explained, create litter and drive up recycling costs for local governments.

As if to prove that the law is aimed at working stiffs who pay taxes, Padilla's SB 405 even exempts participants in California's Women, Infants and Children supplemental food program by requiring stores to provide reusable grocery bags or recycled paper bags to WIC participants.

Can't WIC participants recycle? I asked Padilla. "That's done out of a concern, which some have raised, on the impact on low-income families," he explained.

When making laws, California's lawmakers often ignore the most abiding of all laws, the law of unintended consequences.

The American Progressive Bag Alliance, which represents makers of plastic bags, held a conference call Tuesday to warn of adverse consequences to the state's effort to combat global warming. (I like how the group calls itself "progressive" as if they were a bunch of San Francisco supervisors.) Paper bags require more water to make than plastic bags, Chairman Mark Daniels argued. Reusable bags save energy only if people wash and reuse them. Then there's the California jobs issue.

Padilla is confident that Californians will use reusable bags. Hence, his bill would help the environment.

A California Senate Environmental Quality Committee analysis of Padilla's SB 405 discusses the possible "public health implications," as reusable bags "can harbor bacteria such as coliform bacteria." Washing bags can help, the analysis noted; alas, a study found that 97 percent of Californians and Arizonans said they never wash their bags.

No worries. SB 405 would require reusable bags to include cleaning care instructions. Because people always read the many warnings and instructions mandated by state law -- yes, that was sarcasm -- the Padilla warning just might reduce the number of consumers who don't wash their bags so that -- what? -- maybe only 96 percent of consumers will be at risk of getting sick from their unwashed reused bags.

That's why the Romans cooked up the term "caveat emptor" (let the buyer beware).

It may well be that in another 10 years, Sacramento will have to come up with a new law to deal with a glut of unused reusable bags.

I look around California and see serious problems -- undereducated children, one of the country's highest unemployment rates, homeless people and violent crime. In San Francisco, the sidewalks often smell, and it's not because of single-use plastic bags.

To sum up, the Padilla bill probably would reduce litter, but it could increase greenhouse gases and could make people sick. And it most definitely would inconvenience consumers.

But in this state, if there's one group Sacramento can push around, it's not people who make the streets unseemly, and it's not the menaces to society; it's hardworking taxpayers who buy things. They are the softest target.


Electric car sales lose their spark: Just 3,600 are sold in Britain under scheme to give motorists £5,000 subsidy if they buy one

Electric car sales are set to slump below expectations despite efforts to support them with taxpayer subsidies, a report concludes today.

The report says motorists still find 'zero-emission' vehicles too expensive, less efficient and less practical than conventional petrol and diesel vehicles.

Only 3,600 electric vehicles have so far been sold under a scheme that gives buyers a £5,000 taxpayer subsidy. The Government has also allocated £300million to boost public charging points.

The report was commissioned jointly by the RAC Foundation and the UK Petroleum Industry Association.

It says: 'Sales of electric cars are set to fall far short of official expectations. Electric vehicles remain a controversial subject.'

Predictions for the future are also dismal despite official encouragement by Prime Minster David Cameron, Labour opposition and environmental groups.

The 154-page report called 'Powering Ahead - the future of low-carbon cars and fuels', added: 'Battery electric vehicles face major challenges in gaining market share because of their high prices and limited range.

'Breakthroughs in technology, particularly in the cost and performance of batteries are required before plug-in hybrid and battery electric vehicles can achieve significant market share.'

The report concedes 'Advocates will say that their market share has increased by hundreds of percentage points over the last years, and that this trend will continue.

'Critics will reply that this still only represents a small fraction of the market.'

But the RAC report highlights how the Goverment's advisory Committee on Climate Change has said it would be 'feasible and desirable' to have up to 1.7million fully electric and plug-in hybrid cars on the road by 2020.

'But most industry analysts predict the number will be significantly lower', it notes.

'Even the more positive assessments foresee only 200,000 plug-in hybrid and pure battery powered cars being sold each year in the UK by 2020.

'Some experts think sales of these types of vehicle will actually be as low as 40,000,' it says citing a review for them by consultants Ricardo-AEA of authoritative market forecasts .

'To put these numbers in perspective, just over 2 million new cars were sold in the UK in 2012. In total there are about 29million cars on the road in the UK. '

Professor Stephen Glaister, director of the RAC Foundation, said: 'It is more than two years since the Government introduced the plug-in car grant.

'Yet even with subsidies of £5,000 per vehicle available only 3,600 cars have been purchased through the scheme.

'This report concludes that the key to making electric cars a commercial success is a major advance in battery technology.

'Until then these vehicles are likely to remain too expensive and too impractical to penetrate the mass market.'

The subsidy scheme rises to more than £8,000 for vans. The 11 vehicles eligible for the subsidy include the Nissan Leaf and Vauxhall Ampera.


Australia:  Controversy over gas exploration

A FAILURE to embrace coal seam gas has prompted the Federal Opposition to accuse the New South Wales Government of destroying its major economic hope.

Speaking to an energy conference in Sydney on Thursday, Opposition spokesman for resources Ian Macfarlane said the state had to follow Queensland's lead in building up the industry.

Mr Macfarlane also criticised NSW for imposing too many restrictions on the gas sector.

He reportedly told the conference how NSW had dithered while Queensland had thrived.

"Instead of drilling 1000 wells each year, (NSW) built just one well in two years," he said.

Mr Macfarlane said the NSW government needed to spruik the industry and warn the public of potential job losses.

NSW has imposed stringent restrictions on the emerging CSG sector in the state after fierce opposition, particularly along its northern coastline.

CSG opponents claimed victory after two major gas companies Metgasco and Dart Energy stalled plans to develop in the region.




Preserving the graphics:  Graphics hotlinked to this site sometimes have only a short life and if I host graphics with blogspot, the graphics sometimes get shrunk down to illegibility.  From January 2011 on, therefore, I have posted a monthly copy of everything on this blog to a separate site where I can host text and graphics together -- which should make the graphics available even if they are no longer coming up on this site.  See  here and here


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