An email from Norm Kalmanovitch [email@example.com]
There is a very good case to be made for anthropogenic global cooling from CO2 emissions. The beginning of rapid increases in global CO2 emissions started in 1945 with the rapid increase in post war industrialization that has seen CO2 emissions rise from under 4gt/year in 1945, to over 31.5gt/year today. This increase in CO2 emissions over the past 63 years has resulted in over 40 years of global cooling. The only time that there was a decrease in emissions was from 1979 to 1982 when the world was warming.
This forms a positive correlation of sufficient statistical significance to make a reasonable case for this relationship to be valid. Although correlation is not causation, there is nothing in the current science literature database that demonstrates any contrary evidence so based solely on "peer reviewed" science literature (as is the case for AGW), this hypothesis could be taken as valid.
The original paper on this topic by Svante Arrhenius in 1896 can be shown to be in error because at the time quantum physics had not yet revealed the physical process of interaction between the Earth's radiative energy and atmospheric CO2.
The only part of the Earth's thermal radiative spectrum that is affected by CO2 is the 14.77micron band, but Arrhenius, unaware of this fact used measurements limited to only 9.7microns and therefore was not actually measuring the effect from CO2. He also used an experimental source for thermal radiation that was at 100°C, and the radiative spectrum from this source includes the 4.2micron wavelength band of CO2 that is not part of the Earth's radiative spectrum, so he was not measuring the actual effect from the thermal radiation from the Earth.
In 1970 the Nimbus 4 satellite measured the Earth's radiative spectrum showing that the spectral band affected by CO2 had a deep notch in it centred on 14.77microns. This deep notch demonstrated that well over 90% of the possible effect had already been achieved from just the 325ppmv atmospheric concentration of CO2, so further changes in concentration would have only minor effects, and increases in CO2 concentration could neither be responsible for either global warming or global cooling of any significant degree.
While CO2 concentration increases can be demonstrated to have little further effect on global temperatures, this has no bearing on CO2 emissions because there is no correlation between CO2 emissions and CO2 concentration, and CO2 emissions may alter the global temperature by processes other than changes to the greenhouse effect. It is easily demonstrated that there is no correlation between CO2 emissions and atmospheric CO2 concentration. Over the three years from 1979 to 1982 when CO2 emissions were decreasing due to the rapid increase in the price of oil that drastically reduced consumption, there was no change in the rate of increase in atmospheric concentration of CO2 proving that humans were not the primary source for the increase in concentration.
The science literature data base is filled with articles about global warming and CO2, but none of these articles actually relate CO2 emissions to global warming, and just falsely assume that emissions and concentration are interchangeable. All of the articles are based on projections from climate models, which also make this false assumption about emissions and concentration, and these models have yet to demonstrate a result that matches physical observation. This is because models use a contrived CO2 forcing parameter that was clearly not designed on any physical basis either experimental or empirical. In fact there is nothing in all the global warming literature, even the articles about polar bears and melting ice, that can refute the anthropogenic global cooling hypothesis.
Even though there is nothing in the literature data base that can refute the hypothesis of anthropogenic global cooling, the hypothesis can be clearly shown to be false by strict adherence to science protocol and the scientific method. There is clear observational evidence that the Earth warmed from 1975 to 1998 as emissions increased, so even though the world cooled for more years than it warmed with increasing CO2 emissions, these 23 years provide observations contrary to the hypothesis that can't be explained by the hypothesis, and therefore the hypothesis must be abandoned.
Another hypothesis that explains the current global cooling is based on solar cycles and their effect on solar output and changes to the Earth's albedo from cloud cover. The driving mechanism for this is not fully understood, but to date there is absolutely no contrary evidence to the overall hypothesis. There is in fact clear supportive evidence including observational evidence from a project called Earth Shine which measures the Earth's albedo by its reflection on the moon. The albedo measurements show reducing albedo concurrent with global warming, changing to increasing albedo concurrent with global cooling in 1998. (Figure 2 page 21). See here (PDF).
This is the way science is supposed to work, and while it is a simple matter to falsify the Anthropogenic Global Cooling hypothesis, it should be far easier to falsify the Anthropogenic Global Warming theory, because everything stated in the theory is contrary not only to observation, but contrary to established physical principles and physical laws as well. The fact that AGW still exists as a valid hypothesis seven years after the Earth started to cool in spite of the continued rapid increase in global CO2 emissions, is testament to how easy it is to misinform the public with well executed propaganda and media control.
Another comment on "OCEANS WARMEST ON RECORD"
An email from James H. Rust [firstname.lastname@example.org]
In the August 21, 2009 issue of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, on page A9 appeared an article "Oceans warmest on record" by Associated Press writer Seth Borenstein.
The article stated the July 2009 average ocean temperature was 62.6 degrees as reported by the National Climate Data Center and the hottest since record-keeping began in 1880. The article contained statements by Canadian climate scientist Andrew Weaver of the University of Victoria in British Columbia. He stated that breaking ocean temperature records were more ominous than breaking land temperature records because water takes longer to heat up and cool. Weaver said, "This is another yet really important indicator of the change that's occurring."
Consulting the internet showed that Mr. Borenstein and Prof. Weaver have long been advocates that catastrophic events will occur due to carbon dioxide being added to the atmosphere from burning fossil fuels. One of the sites mentioned that a democratic society should have a well-informed public. This I agree with. However, that statement was followed with the public should not be informed about science disagreeing with carbon dioxide have significant effects on climate because that is misleading the public. So much for open debate in a democracy.
Further examining the data from the National Climate Data Center showed the 62.6 degrees was a global surface sea temperature which was 1.06 degrees warmer than the twentieth century average of 61.5 degrees. For the twentieth century, about half the time temperatures were increasing and the other half of the time temperatures were decreasing. If one compared the July 2009 sea surface temperature with the average for the last twenty five years of the twentieth century, the new record temperature would have been a few tenths of a degree higher.
We are presently in a period with an active El Nino in the central Pacific Ocean which should raise global surface sea temperatures. Surface sea temperatures should be a far cry from global ocean temperatures because of stratification of temperatures. Those who swim in the ocean can be quite comfortable on the surface and have cold feet six feet below. Warming from the sun only penetrates a few feet into water.
For several years we have been told that climate cooling is taking place because of reduced sunspot activity. In addition, I have read that ARGOS buoys planted throughout the oceans have indicated stable ocean temperatures or a slight decrease in temperature. This data has only existed since 2003. This information seems to contradict the findings reported by the Associated Press.
AFRICAN LEADERS DEMAND $70 BN P.A. FROM WEST FOR CLIMATE COMPENSATION
How are the Warmist politicians going to wriggle out of this one?
The leaders of 10 African countries are gathering in Ethiopia to try to agree a common position on climate change. The summit comes ahead of crucial UN talks in Copenhagen in December. Under the auspices of the African Union, the meeting will underline the chief African demand for compensation for damages caused by global warming. The move to agree a common negotiating platform for Africa is a recognition of the failure of the continent to make its voice heard to date.
One of the documents prepared for the meeting talks about the "dismal co-ordination" of the African negotiation process. So far, delegations from individual countries have had limited success in making the case that Africa needs special help as it has the lowest emissions of carbon dioxide on the planet, but is set to suffer the worst impacts.
In an attempt to change this, the African Union is bringing together the leaders of 10 countries under the chairmanship of Libya's Muammar Gaddafi. The objective is to agree a set of key ideas on the way forward on climate for Africa so that the continent can be represented by one delegation at the global negotiations in Copenhagen in December.
Proposals for discussion include the suggestion that developed countries should cut their emissions by at least 40% by 2020, and that the richer nations should provide funds of $67bn (£40bn) a year to help the least well off cope with the impacts of rising temperatures.
The reality of the UN climate negotiations is that the US, China, India and the European Union have the greatest sway. The African leaders will be hoping that speaking with one voice at Copenhagen will significantly enhance their negotiating position.
TREE COVER FAR BIGGER THAN EXPECTED ON FARMS: STUDY
Almost half of the world's farmland has at least 10 percent tree cover, according to a study on Monday indicating that farmers are far less destructive to carbon-storing forests than previously believed. "The area revealed in this study is twice the size of the Amazon, and shows that farmers are protecting and planting trees spontaneously," Dennis Garrity, Director General of the World Agroforestry Center in Nairobi, said in a statement.
The Centre's report, based on satellite images and the first to estimate tree cover on the world's farms, showed tree canopies exceeded 10 percent on farmland of 10 million square kms (3.9 million sq miles) -- 46 percent of all agricultural land and an area the size of Canada or China.
By one yardstick used by the U.N.'s Food and Agricultural Organization, a "forest" is an area in which tree canopies cover at least 10 percent of an area. The definition excludes, however, farmland or urban areas.
The report said that farmers keep or plant trees for uses such as production of fruit, nuts, medicines, fuel, building materials, gums or resins. Trees also provide shade for crops, work as windbreaks, boundary markers or to help avert erosion. And trees are often hardier than crops or livestock so can be a backup for farmers on marginal land in hard times.
Previous estimates of the area of farmland used in agroforestry had ranged up to only about 3 million sq kms. Farms are often portrayed as enemies of forests -- homes to a wide diversity of animals and plants. Forests are also giant stores of heat-trapping carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas. "We're pleasantly surprised -- it quantifies an under-appreciated resource," Tony Simons, deputy director general of the World Agroforestry Center, told Reuters.
The environmental dark ages
To hear some environmentalists speak you would think that we are currently in the environmental dark ages. The ever expanding economy (current hiccup exempted) means that we are using up ever more resources, spewing out ever more pollution and generally leading the way to Hell in a handcart.
That they say this when the air and the waters are cleaner than they have been for many centuries, when resources, judged by their price, are cheaper and thus more abundant than ever, causes no little amusement.
However, it is their next step which is so dangerous. We must localise all production, not eat food from outside our own region: depending upon who you talk to it might be from outside your own garden, town, county or bioregion but international trade is certainly very naughty indeed. In fact, we shouldn't be getting anything at all from other countries, let alone the other side of the world.
Localism in government is to be admired, localism in production and consumption rather less so.
A new book on the end of the Roman Empire points to this as the defining economic mark of that age:
An emphasis on "localization" as the fundamental change following the fall of the Roman Empire, and numerous micro-studies of exactly how that localization occurred. Cities shrank, trade networks dried up, etc.
Not for nothing do we decribe that time as The Dark Ages. Last time around it came about because of the collapse (for whatever reasons) of a political power. Let's not inflict it upon ourselves in the name of environmentalism, eh?
Bring on global warming: Diabetes 'most likely to occur among children in winter'
Warmists are always claiming that warming is bad for your health despite all evidence to the contrary. Below is just one example of such contrary evidence
Children under 15 are more likely to develop diabetes in winter, a large international study suggests. Analysis of data of 31,000 children from 105 diabetes centres in 53 countries found a correlation between the season and the onset of Type 1 diabetes. Of the 42 centres that exhibited this seasonal trend, 28 centres had peaks of diagnosis in winter and 33 had troughs in summer. This winter trend was more prevalent in boys as well as in both sexes from the older age groups (5 to 14 years old).
The study, published in the journal Diabetic Medicine, also found that diabetes centres further away from the equator were more likely to have greater numbers of new cases in winter.
A total of 23,000 children in Britain have been diagnosed with Type 1 diabetes, the fourth-highest incidence in Europe, but the exact causes of the condition are unclear.
In contrast to Type 2 diabetes, which is associated with obesity and more likely to develop in middle age, the Type 1 form typically arises in childhood and requires lifelong supplements of insulin. The condition develops when the insulin-producing cells in the pancreas have been destroyed. It is not known for sure why these cells have been damaged but the most likely cause is an abnormal reaction of the body to the cells. This may be triggered by a viral or other infection.
Elena Moltchanova, who led the study at the National Institute for Health and Welfare, Helsinki, said: “Numerous reasons have been suggested for the apparent seasonality of the onset of Type 1 diabetes. “These include a seasonal variation in people’s levels of blood glucose and insulin, seasonal viral infections, the fact that young people tend to eat more and do less physical activity during winter months and, similarly, that summer holidays provide a rest from school stress and more opportunity to play outdoors.”
Victoria King, research manager at the charity Diabetes UK said that previous studies had shown conflicting results, “but this larger study shows a stronger correlation which is interesting, especially as we still don’t know exactly why Type 1 diabetes develops. “Investigating why we might be seeing this pattern could tell us more about what may be triggering the development of Type 1 diabetes”, she added. “Despite this, the study looked at correlations over a relatively short period of time and not all centres that took part in the study showed the correlation between seasonality and diagnosis of Type 1 diabetes so more data are needed before more definite conclusions can be drawn.”
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