Tuesday, May 06, 2008

No past, present or future anthropogenic global warming

Excerpt from an email from Dr. Miklos Zagoni, physicist, Budapest, Hungary [miklos.zagoni@gmail.com]

I stated at the New York Conference on Climate Change that it is the Miskolczi theory which is able to serve the proper scientific background for the lack of past, present and future anthropogenic global warming. In the meantime we continued checking the theory over and over and could not recognize any flaw in it. I have excerpts, shorter and longer written summaries and explanations too, digging into different depth of the physics behind the theory. I am ready to deliver it in detail for any expert or layman audiences, at workshops, hearings, public lectures, as far as science and not politics is concerned. Again, the original paper's link is at the official web site of the Quarterly Journal of the Hungarian Meteorological Service. [PDF -- in English]

I think the proper understanding of the new theory needs some further explanation, so I try to provide it in short: To put it in a language that IPCC will understand:

"Extra CO2 does not result extra 'radiative forcing' in the final account, as the energy constraint rules it back to its equilibrium value. Nature's regulatory instrument is water vapor: more carbon dioxide leads to less moisture in the air, keeping the overall GHG content in accord with the necessary balance conditions. So, contrary to the common wisdom, there is no positive H2O-temperature feedback on global scale: in Earth-type atmospheres uncontrolled runaway warming is not possible. This new theory seems to be only a little step forward in the two-hundred years old greenhouse science, but its consequences are revolutionary: actually it stops the possibility of man-made global warming."

I hope you start to feel how deep this work of Dr Miskolczi is. You may understand also why the mainstream does not want to learn it, and why I must help to distribute it in all possible ways.

Southern Hemisphere Sea Ice Reaches "Unprecedented" Levels

Four of the past 5 months are "all-time" records for Southern Hemisphere sea ice anomalies, "unprecedented" since the data set began in 1979 as shown below:

On a global basis, world sea ice in April 2008 reached levels that were "unprecedented" for the month of April in over 25 years. Levels are the third highest (for April) since the commencement of records in 1979, exceeded only by levels in 1979 and 1982. This continues a pattern established earlier in 2008, as global sea ice in March 2008 was also the third highest March on record, while January 2008 sea ice was the second highest January on record. It was also the second highest single month in the past 20 years (second only to Sept 1996).

The graph below shows the monthly anomaly (aggregating NH and SH), collating information from sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135.

As suggested by a reader, here's the same information with each monthly series plotted as a separate line (April-solid; January - dotted.) The surge in anomaly area in 2008 is not limited to a single month, but is consistent for all 4 months to date (and for the YTD average).

At Cryosphere Today, they provide the following "scientific" description of recent sea ice changes:
You've heard Al Gore comment that the "Earth has a fever"? It may also have major tooth decay.

They provide an animation showing declining sea ice to 2007 lows, but not the subsequent recovery in 2008:
Peruse an archive of map displays of the atmospheric and radiative climatic conditions leading up to the record setting Northern Hemisphere sea ice minimum of 2007: sea ice autopsy

Instead of perhaps celebrating the dramatic recent increase in sea ice, they complain that there has been a loss of "multiyear sea ice". I've uploaded my collation of the NOAA data to www.climateaudit.org/data/ice/seaice.dat .


Shock: Time Mag. does a fair and balanced global warming polar bear article!

Could it be? Time Mag. does journalistically fair and balanced article on global warming and polar bears? Perhaps some people at Time Mag. are feeling the heat from disintegrating man-made global warming fear campaign. Also see EPW Polar Bear Reports here

The cuddly polar bear has become global warming's favorite mascot. It's also become a political flash point: on one side, conservation groups say global warming threatens the bear by permanently damaging its Arctic habitat. On the other, conservative groups say the so-called plight of the polar bear is a gambit to intensify climate change hysteria. The battle flared up again last Monday, when a California federal district court judge ordered the Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS), the Interior Department agency that evaluates endangered species, to decide on the polar bear by May 15 (a four-month extension of the original due date of Jan. 9). If FWS lists the bear as endangered, it would be the first mammal to face extinction due to global warming.

The question is whether the polar bear is actually in enough danger to warrant official government protection. Last year, a survey by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) concluded that two-thirds of the world's polar bears could disappear in the next 50 years if Arctic sea ice continues to evaporate at its current rate - sea ice is essential for polar bears, serving as the platforms from which they hunt. Similar discussion is ongoing in Canada, where two-thirds of the world's estimated 20,000 to 25,000 polar bears reside. Last week, a Canadian scientific committee ruled that the bears should be considered a "special concern species," meaning there's reason for concern but not panic.

Pete Ewins, director of species conservation at World Wildlife Fund-Canada, says there's a general consensus in the scientific community that global warming inaction will result in reduced polar bear numbers, but admits that the data isn't entirely conclusive. "The problem comes when people start asking if we know everything we need to know about polar bears everywhere," he says. "The answer is, no. But a lack of scientific certainty hasn't been taken by the majority of polar ecologists as a reason to assume everything is O.K."

But those who oppose listing the polar bear, including several western senators, say that the species does in fact appear to be O.K. Oklahoma Senator James Inhofe, the ranking Republican member of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, calls sea ice studies such as the one run by USGS a "classic case of reality versus unproven computer models." In fact, he says, the number of polar bears has increased over the past half-century as a result of initiatives like the 1973 Agreement on the Conservation of Polar Bears, which sharply curtailed bear hunting; he thinks declaring the animal endangered would be a purely political move, a way to achieve global warming policy that eschews the legislative process. It's a classic bait-and-switch maneuver, he says, that would effectively turn the Endangered Species Act into a climate change law.

"The implications of such a policy would lead to drastic increases in litigation and eager lawyers ready to find ways to shut down energy production," says Inhofe, who has held two hearings this year for which he rounded up a retinue of doubtful experts. "These special interest groups believe no oil and gas leases should be allowed until the bear is listed, its critical habitat designated and a recovery plan put in place. That could be a very long time."

Those oil and gas-drilling leases include the $2 billion February sale of rights to 30 million acres of the Chukchi Sea off Alaska's northwest coast, home to about a fifth of the world's remaining polar bears. Kassie Siegel of the Center for Biological Diversity and the author of the initial petition to list the polar bear takes the opposite view; she figures the FWS decision was delayed to allow the sale to go through in the first place. Not surprising coming from an administration Siegel calls rabidly "anti-wildlife." The scarcity of animals that have been listed endangered during the Bush years is undeniable: 59 in seven years. Bill Clinton added 521 during his two terms and George H.W. Bush listed 231 during his four years. Siegel's group has filed petitions on behalf of a number of other species, including the ribbon seal and a dozen different types of penguins. She's willing to file more lawsuits and ready to fight for her charges. Sort of like an angry polar bear.


Why Let The Facts Get in The Way of a Good Story?

Poor silly "science writer" Sharon Begley shows her ignorance of even the basics again

In the May 5, 2008 edition of Newsweek, there is an article by science writer Sharon Begley trying to convince us that "global warming isn't good for crops after all". Her first example is that a glacier in the Himalayas called the Gangotri glacier. She writes that over the last 25 years the glacier has shrunk about half a mile, "a rate three times the historical norm". The implication is, of course, that this was caused by increasing atmospheric CO2 produced by human activities. Since this glacier supplies 70% of the flow to India's Ganges River during the dry season, loss of the glacier would cause great harm to India's crop irrigation. However, this article in the Times of India, contains the following quote:
According to Geological Survey of India data, between 1935 and 1996, Gangotri glacier receded at an average 18.80 metres per year. Studies by other institutions show that yearly recession dropped to 17.5 metres during 1971-2004 and further to 12.10 metres in 2004-05.

The river flow may be falling and the glacier retreating, but is it really three times the historical norm? The Indian government calls it a "natural phenomena" that may have been exacerbated by the building of four dams.

Her second example is that in a human induced greenhouse world there would be more heat waves. She then lists many agricultural problems caused by the European heat wave of 2003 but she is apparently unfamiliar with this study by Roger Pielke Sr. and others stating that:
It therefore appears that the heat wave 2003 in south-central Europe was the unfortunate consequence of a combination of largely unrelated climate drivers, superimposed on an underlying warming trend, rather than as a direct result of lower tropospheric global warming.

Her next example is that of a diminishing snowpack in the United States, particularly in the Pacific Northwest. Was she out of the country this winter? Take a look at these snow depth comparisons from the Northwest Weather and Avalanche Center in Seattle, Washington.You can see that this year's snow pack in the Northwest was between 133% and 330% above normal. In many locations in the central Rockies, the midwest and northern New England, the highest snowfall amounts of any year were recorded. Of course, one year does not make a trend, but since the Pacific Decadal Oscillation has gone negative, this may indeed be the beginning of a trend.

In this last example, she quotes a Linda Mearns from the National Center for Atmospheric Research who says in reference to climate zones moving north that "the sun will not move with the climate". That is true, but she then says "the Dakotas will always have less daylight than Kansas." How can anyone who knows anything about climate make that statement? During the growing season, which is what she is talking about, the Dakotas do indeed have more daylight than Kansas. Between the spring equinox and the fall equinox, there is more daylight the farther north you go. Assuming you could find the correct temperatures, you could never grow apples at the Equator because there are only 12 hours of daylight in that location. At the Summer Solstice, Bismarck, North Dakota has almost 16 hours of daylight, which is over an hour more than Wichita, Kansas. You can easily find the sunrise/sunset times for any city at this web site, but why let the facts get in the way of a good story?


Global Warming? Northeast Skies Through a Snowy Season

Amid increasing concerns about the warming of the planet, ski resorts across the Northeast are reporting some of the best snowfall levels in recorded history. Waterville Valley in New Hampshire had a top-five year in terms of snow accumulation, with 192 inches having fallen to the slopes so far, the mountain's director of marketing, Deborah Moore, said. A recent snowstorm on Mt. Mansfield, the home of Stowe Mountain Resort in Vermont, boosted the season snow total to 367 inches, making this ski season the snowiest in the last 10 years. "We're still expecting at least one more dump of snow," the communications director at Stowe, Jeff Wise, said.

For those who reject the popular consensus that the world is on the brink of a global warming crisis, the mass snowfall provides a form of validation. "The reports of global warming have been extremely overblown. It shouldn't be any surprise that we're going to have years with temperatures lower than average and snowfall higher than average," a senior fellow for environmental policy at the Heartland Institute, James Taylor, said.

While a majority of the Northeast has witnessed higher than average snowfalls this year, some areas in New Hampshire are on the brink of recording unprecedented numbers. In Concord, N.H., one more snowstorm could depose of a 134-year-old record. So far this winter, 115.8 inches of snow have hit the sidewalks of the city, the second greatest amount of snowfall ever recorded - and just a few inches short of the record of 122 inches recorded in the winter of 1873-74, a local meteorologist with the National Weather Service, James Hayes, said.

More here

No true consensus on global warming

By CLAUDETTE A. AZAR-KENYON -- A genuine Massachusetts Greenie sees the light

Responding to John Bullard's April 24 view, although I am not the president of a Sea Education Association, I am indeed an environmental conservationist. My automobile (endorsed by the Sierra Club) and my home stand as my evidence. My trash consists of one small bag weekly, often bi-weekly, but my recycling bins are always full. While this doesn't make me a scientist, it does show I care for our environment.

Not being a scientist and caring for our environment doesn't preclude an average person from being able to think or know when they are being deceived. As stated previously, I believe we should take care of the environment because it's the right thing to do.

I believe that climate change science is driven by ideology and not the study of long-term cycles. Mr. Bullard repeated my claim that global warming is based on 20 years of data and that warming and cooling is cyclical, but he omitted my "due to human action," which is an important clarifier. The question about global warming is if human-created carbons are at fault. Mr. Bullard says, "Mauna Loa records of CO2 concentrations go back over 50 years; ice cores go back about a million." If his claim is true, then what caused the cyclical behavior he admits is evident in the ice cores over the past million years - humans?

The global warming (due to the human-created carbons) issue and "scientific censorship" is claimed by many global authorities. To comply with Mr. Bullard's request for evidence, I put it forth here, albeit there are far too many to note them all.

As to the ice cores going back a million years, they may go back even further. However, it's important to note that the ice cores are not the vital factor, rather the records for measuring ice core lengths and the conclusions drawn on those samples are what is important, and these records are fairly recent. Various ice cores of varying depths have been drilled only since 1956, and the first ice core to reach bedrock was drilled in 1966.

Many respected scientists around the globe claim that until 1985, published CO2 readings were published correctly, but after 1985 certain readings disappeared from publication. That's 23 years of censorship and skewed study.

In fact, Dr. Roy W. Spencer, principal research scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, formerly a senior scientist for climate studies at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center, says, "For those scientists who value their scientific reputations, I would advise that they distance themselves from politically motivated claims of a 'scientific consensus' on the causes of global warming. ... Don't let five Norwegians on the Nobel Prize committee be the arbiters of what is good science." Good science is exactly what I am promoting!

Likewise, Zbigniew Jaworowski, Ph.D., chairman of the Scientific Council of the Central Laboratory for Radiological Protection in Poland, who spoke to the U.S. Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation in 2004 said, "Attempts to support the global warming thesis with analyses of the carbon dioxide content in glacial ice samples are based on fudged data and ignorance of the physical processes of glacial ice formation."

The point here is that there are too many reliable scientific sources claiming censorship in climate science for us to say with any confidence that humans are responsible. In fact, even those scientists who claim global warming as fact have admitted the data isn't challenged in peer-reviewed scientific literature. I have a problem with that, and you should too.

If we are living in a climate that is unprecedented in all of human history and, as Mr. Bullard says, "the wonderful thing about science is the more we expand knowledge, the greater the area between the known and unknown," then shouldn't the debate include all the data so we are not acting on conclusions that are based on ideology and politics?

Mr. Bullard says "prudent people wouldn't delay acting," and on this we can agree. Prudent people should indeed act responsibly by demanding fair and full consideration of all the facts, using a healthy measure of scientific skepticism, and not reacting on fears created by a false scientific consensus.



For more postings from me, see TONGUE-TIED, EDUCATION WATCH INTERNATIONAL, POLITICAL CORRECTNESS WATCH, FOOD & HEALTH SKEPTIC, GUN WATCH, SOCIALIZED MEDICINE, AUSTRALIAN POLITICS, DISSECTING LEFTISM, IMMIGRATION WATCH INTERNATIONAL and EYE ON BRITAIN. My Home Pages are here or here or here. Email me (John Ray) here. For times when blogger.com is playing up, there are mirrors of this site here and here.


1 comment:

jsquarek said...

I do not see that the rotational kinetic
energy of the
atmosphere is fully incorporated
into Miskolczi's
theory. Am I
overlooking something?