Atmosphere of Uncertainty?

By S. Fred Singer

To support the conclusion of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that current warming is anthropogenic, William Collins, Robert Colman, James Haywood, Martin R. Manning and Philip Mote assert in "The Physical Science behind Climate Change" that the mismatch between surface and tropospheric warming rates has now been resolved.

This claim is not supported by actual observations. According to the April 2006 Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) report, considerable disparity exists between the observed warming-rate patterns and those calculated by greenhouse models. Although the models predict that temperature trends will increase with altitude by 200 to 300 percent, the data from both weather balloons and satellites show the opposite. This result does not deny the existence of a greenhouse effect from the considerable increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gases. But it does suggest that present models greatly overestimate the effect's magnitude and significance.

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Collins et al. have replied to Singer with the claim that the discrepancies observed are just random errors (or "significant nonclimatic influences", as they put it). Anything that does not fit the theory is just a random error, apparently. The old "Deus ex machina" of Elizabethan theatre has now moved on -- to be found these days in climate science -- where it is called a "significant nonclimatic influence". Forgive me while I laugh!





Congress decides to kill a lot more Americans

Bigger, heavier vehicles are generally safer but they use more fuel. The fuel economy mandates will tend to make all vehicles light and flimsy

The groundbreaking deal in Congress to raise miles-per-gallon standards will compel the auto industry to churn out more fuel-efficient vehicles on a faster timeline than the companies wanted, though with flexibility to get the job done. The auto industry's fleet of new cars, SUVs, pickups and vans will have to average 35 mpg by 2020, according to the agreement that congressional negotiators announced late Friday. That compares with the 2008 requirement of 27.5 mpg average for cars and 22.5 mpg for light trucks. It would be first increase ordered by Congress in three decades.

Majority Democrats plan to include the requirement in broader energy legislation to be debated in the context of $90-per-barrel oil, $3-plus gas pump prices and growing concerns about climate change. The House plans to begin debate this week.

The energy bill will help accelerate plans by automakers to bring more fuel-efficient technologies to conventional engines and alternatives such as gas-electric hybrids and vehicles running on ethanol blends. For the first time, for example, manufacturers will receive credits for building vehicles that run on biodiesel fuel.

Domestic automakers and Toyota opposed a Senate bill approved in June that contained the same mileage requirements and timeline. They warned the measure would limit the choice of vehicles, threaten jobs and drive up costs. The compromise worked out by Rep. John Dingell, D-Mich., House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and Senate leaders maintains a significant boost in mileage standards while giving the industry more flexibility and certainty as they plan new vehicles.

The proposal would continue separate standards for cars and trucks, extend credits for producing vehicles that run on ethanol blends, and allow automakers to receive separate credits for exceeding the standards and then apply those credits to other model years.

Michigan lawmakers secured an extension of the current 1.2 mpg credit for the production of each "flexible fuel" vehicle, capable of running on ethanol blends of 15% gasoline and 85% ethanol. Without the extension, the credits might have run out by 2010, but under the deal, they will be phased out by 2020. The United Auto Workers union also won a provision intended to prevent companies from shifting production of less-profitable small cars to foreign plants. At stake are an estimated 17,000 jobs.

General Motors CEO Rick Wagoner said the new rules would "pose a significant technical and economic challenge to the industry." He said GM would tackle the changes "with an array of engineering, research and development resources." Environmental groups estimate the deal could save the country 1.2 million barrels of oil per day by 2020 while helping motorists save at the pump. "Cars are going to be more attractive to consumers because they won't cost as much to own and operate," said David Doniger, director of the climate center for the Natural Resources Defense Council.

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BALI, DAY 1: CHINA, INDIA GO ON THE OFFENSIVE: WEST DIVIDED AND FEEBLE

At Bali, where 190 countries are debating on how to safeguard the future of the Earth, India finds itself under siege. But battling for its right to development, India has found its best friends across the borders - China and Pakistan. On the first day of the Bali meet, it was clear that officials of the developed world were working on a script - piling on the pressure on India and China to bring them into the tent of emission cuts. But, in a rare demonstration of solidarity, India and China have teamed up and officials of both countries are working together on every issue - from emission reductions to setting targets for energy intensity.

At the ad-hoc working group meeting on Monday, India was told, "You have the largest number of billionaires. Why can't you accept cuts and targets." The riposte from Indian and Chinese officials was almost instantaneous. "We are large countries. Our poverty is just as large," they said.

The border dispute and other troubles seem far away for officials at the climate change frontlines - their only brief is to ensure that India and China have the space and opportunity to grow unhindered by cuts and targets. So, anybody expecting India and China to play differently were disappointed - through the day there was a frantic to-ing and fro-ing between the officials to make sure the two countries were on the same page. And they have help - from Pakistan. Pakistan is now the chairman of the G-77 and in that role, has been providing valuable back-up support to the two Asian biggies.

Climate change has now become a huge security issue for the developed and developing worlds, but in vastly different ways. The threat to western lifestyles as a result of emission cuts is becoming difficult politically. So while Australia, under new PM Kevin Rudd, took a U-turn by ratifying Kyoto, Canada, under conservative Stephen Harper, took a different turn.

For the developing world, India's battle is to push the idea of per capita emissions as a unit of measurement. That's not yet acceptable across the pond. The battle is now fairly joined. It continues...

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WAS "ENSO" THE CULPRIT?

Did a normal climate cycle account for the short period of warming up to 1998?

ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) is the technical name given to the most prominent source of inter-annual variability in weather and climate around the world. Its ocean temperature signatures, the more widely-known La Nina and El Nino, corresponding to different phases of the oscillation, are officially defined as sustained sea surface temperature anomalies of magnitude greater than 0.5øC across the central tropical Pacific Ocean.

When ENSO is in the phase known as La Nina, the Pacific trade winds blow true and strong causing sun warmed surface water to pile up against Australia and Indonesia. Cool subsurface water rises in the east. In an El Nino, the trade winds falter and warm water spreads out eastwards across the Pacific Ocean. La Nina and El Nino are the poles of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

ENSO has a influence on global surface temperatures, Australian, American, Indian and African rainfall and Atlantic cyclones. ENSO varies between La Nina and El Nino states over 3 to 7 years but also over periods of decades to centuries. One mode of ENSO variation involves changes in both the frequency and intensity of La Nina and El Nino over at least a few decades.

The Pacific Ocean trade winds set up cloud and rainfall patterns globally with enormous energies transferred between ocean and atmosphere. La Nina conditions see colder water rising in the eastern Pacific and warm, moist air rising over Australia and Indonesia. El Nino conditions see warm water spread across the Pacific. See here

A simple process of heat transfer from the ocean to the atmosphere occurs. The heat transfer is enhanced in the El Nino state by the enormous area of warm water. Conversely, heat is gained by the Pacific Ocean during cooler La Nina conditions and global surface temperatures dip. This is reflected in the CRU surface temperature anomalies shown below for the period 1990 to 2006. 1997 and 1998 are hot. By contrast, 2000 was relatively cool.

The recent surface temperature record shows rising temperatures in the 1990's -- a period of sustained and intense El Nino peaking in 1997. The temperature period since certainly reflects less intense El Nino and cooling sea surface temperatures. The planet will remain cooler, certainly through 2007 and into 2008, as cooler La Nina influences prevail.

Superimposed on the alternation of La Nina and El Nino are longer term variations in the frequency and intensity of El Nino and La Nina. A period of more frequent and intense La Nina between the mid forties and 1975 followed by more frequent and intense El Nino between 1976 and 1998. The pattern appears in centuries of proxy data - that is in tree and coral rings, sedimentation and rainfall and flood records. Global surface temperatures have a similar trajectory. Falling from 1946 to 1975, rising between 1976 and 1998 and declining since.

ENSO determines rainfall in Australia, Asia and America, and influences rainfall in Africa and the Indian monsoon. The beginning of the hydrological cycle here appears to be the vast heat sink over the Pacific during an El Nino and warm, moist air rising in the western Pacific in a La Nina.

The longer term variation of ENSO in frequency and intensity has not been explained either as a result of internal feedback or external forcing. Even so, it is difficult to explain how ENSO variations have been neglected by so many for so long. ENSO involves 97% of greenhouse gases. The surface temperature impacts are significant. Note the 0.25 0C difference between 1998 and 2000.

ENSO variation goes in both directions. The indications are that ENSO variation added to global surface temperatures between 1976 and 1998. It has been almost 10 years since temperatures peaked in1998. The planet may continue to be cooler over the next few decades as a cool La Nina phase of ENSO emerges.

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Australian Environment Minister Peter Garrett gagged on climate change

Former Greenie gets no respect from his colleagues. The signal clearly is that the new government will be only light green, with tokenism being its main Green feature

First Peter Garrett had the crucial issue of climate change yanked from his new environment portfolio, now the new minister has been sidelined from answering questions on the matter in parliament. In a further embarrassment for Mr Garrett, it was yesterday revealed he will not represent Climate Change Minister Senator Penny Wong during Question Time in the Lower House. Questions in the House of Representatives about Senator Wong's role will instead be fielded by Treasurer Wayne Swan.

Opposition Leader Brendan Nelson said the extraordinary move showed Prime Minister Kevin Rudd had no confidence in the gaffe-prone Mr Garrett's ability as a minister. "I fail to understand why in fact Prime Minister Rudd does not have the confidence in Mr Garrett to be taking questions on climate change," Mr Nelson said. "It was always very interesting to see Mr Garrett attempt to answer questions."

Ms Wong leapt to Mr Garrett's defence, saying he had not been gagged: "Peter has a very clear voice in government, he is a Cabinet minister." She argued that climate change was as much an economic issue as an environmental one. "I think it's quite a good thing, if we reflect that in our representing arrangements - but I wouldn't read too much into it."

The Government yesterday defended sending a quarter of its Cabinet to the climate conference in Bali. Mr Rudd and a record four frontbenchers will attend the UN conference, which will attract delegates from around 190 nations and is designed to establish a road map for international climate change action. Ms Wong said the large Australian delegation highlighted the nation's moment in the sun on global climate politics following the Government's historic decision to ratify the Kyoto Protocol. "That gives us a leadership position and we intend to use that," she said. "There are meetings specifically for the trade and finance ministers of the world."

Mr Rudd will lead Australia's delegation. He will be joined by Ms Wong as well as Mr Garrett, Mr Swan and Trade Minister Simon Crean, who will attend separate trade and finance meetings over the next fortnight. "We recognise this as an extremely important conference - Australia has signalled its intention to play a leadership role," Ms Wong said. "That really reflects the fact the world is coming to the view that this is an issue of international economic significance." The new Government has also committed to introducing a green car fleet.

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