Ever since I first started doing research into environmentalism over 30 years ago, it has seemed obvious to me that they are simply a revival of mankind's most primitive religion -- nature worship. Awe before nature is in fact probably so primitive and goes back so far that it has to an extent been hardwired into us.
But many religions are extremely destructive of human welfare -- with Islam being a rather obvious example -- and the plainly misanthropic (people-hating) nature of environmentalism was obviously always going to be a big problem. That problem was for many years obvious in only minor ways. An outright people-hating message was obviously never going to gain much traction so Greenies had to present their demands for change under the old Leftist label: "It is for your own good". And convincing people that something is for your own good when it is actually bad for you is a hard sell. As a result, the nature-worshippers DID inadvertently do us some good in that some of the things they pushed for -- such as cleaner air and water -- really were good for us.
Of late, however, Greenies have really hit the jackpot. They have finally found something that is REALLY bad for us that they can push to the credulous as being good for them. I refer, of course to the global warming craze. It has for some time seemed to me that the vast economic destruction that this craze has already got underway establishes environmentalism as a really evil religion.
But, while there is no doubt that environmentalism is a misanthropic religion, I have come to doubt that that the environmentalists are really most to blame for their excesses. I think there is another force at work which is doing most of the damage. And it is the same force that underlies most Leftism: Excess ego. But it is not ego in politics that is the problem. It is ego in science. It is dishonest science that gives the global warming scare its legs. The average Greenie is just part of a Greek chorus in the background.
But am I not being absurd? How can I say that scientists are on a large scale ego-filled to the point of dishonesty? And how does ego come into science?
Let me initially make clear what I am saying: I am saying that scientists pump up the global warming scare not because they are subscribers to the Greenie religion (though they may well be) but because it inflates their egos. And the clearest proof that ego inflation is a hugely distorting influence on science comes from an area of science that has very little to do with environmentalism and which is arguably the most respected area of scientific research: The medical literature.
So am I now REALLY descending into absurdity? I wish I was. If we cannot trust the academic literature of medicine for an objective view of reality, whom can we trust? I will not attempt to answer that question but I do want to point out that it is crystal clear that we CANNOT trust the academic medical literature. Anyone who knows anything about that literature will know how subject to fashion it is and how what is proclaimed as bad for you in one era is in a later era proclaimed as good for you (e.g. alcohol).
There is more than fashion at work, however. As I document daily on my Food & Health Skeptic blog, there is a constant flood of absurdities appearing in the medical literature. There needs to be more than fashion behind that. And what is behind it is simply attention-seeking. Every scientist wants to be seen as someone who has "discovered" something. But real discoveries are rare so the slightest hint that a scientist has observed something going on will be trumpeted worldwide. And because real discoveries are rare, any purported discovery will be piled onto by lots of other scientists who want to be in on the glory of having made a contribution to the elucidation of this new phenomenon.
The clearest example of this is the cholesterol and polyunsaturated fats obsession. To cut a long story short, there is NO evidence that a low cholesterol diet lowers the amount of cholesterol in your blood nor is there any evidence that saturated fats in your diet are bad for you. In fact, some studies have shown that people on a diet low in saturated fats die SOONER. I have a research review up on today's issue of my Food & Health Skeptic blog that sets out in detail the evidence concerned. Yet we are still bombarded with messages about the desirability of a diet low in cholesterol and low in saturated fats. Our supermarkets are full of products that prominently and proudly proclaim that they are "low" in those constituents.
So why have the research findings not got through to the general public? Because scientists themselves ignore research that does not suit them. Let me tell you why:
The "easy" area of medical research is epidemiology: Take a large group of patients. Get reports from them on where they stand on a variety of attributes (e.g. how fat they are or how much fat they eat) and then wait to see who dies. Once you have got a large enough group of dead patients you then look through your files to see if there is something that the dead patients tend to have more of. Very often you find something, as you would on chance alone. Real scientists refer to such a procedure as "data dredging" and discount it but real scientists are a rare breed. Attention-seeking scientists are far more common and it is their reports of such rubbish findings that fill the medical literature.
But such rubbish findings are a godsend to other scientists. They can then put in for big funding to study this new finding. There is a new bandwagon that they can leap onto. But the only really conclusive way of verifying or falsifying the new "finding" is a longditudinal double-blind study -- i.e. you have to get a large and representative group of people and get half of them to change their ways in some respect (e.g. eat less fat). You then wait for years and see which group dies soonest. And at the end of that time what do you find? You typically find that the epidemiological hypothesis is not confirmed. The intervention (change) you have done to people's habits is just as likely to have done harm as good but most often it has done nothing at all. And that is where the cholesterol and saturated fat research has arrived at after all the years during which the "evil fat" gospel has been rammed down people's throats.
So where do you go from there? Do you admit that the theory you have built your career on (and which has delivered to you a cornucopia of research dollars) was all wrong? I think you can guess the answer to that. What you say is: "More research is needed" -- and carry on as before. And the poor old mug taxpayer coughs up more dollars to keep the nonsense alive.
And much the same applies to global warming theory. It initially looked good but, as more and more evidence accumulates, the holes in it get bigger and bigger. You can see that in the IPCC reports. They have progressively scaled down their predictions of what sea-level rise we are to expect. But there is NO WAY that they can admit that the whole thing is a crock so, as the evidence turns against them, they ratchet up the hysteria to keep those research dollars flowing. And it works. "More research is needed" has become the mantra of many politicians too.
But it leaves the average person totally betrayed. Attention-seeking medical scientists have led him towards useless lifestyle changes that may even harm him and attention-seeking climate scientists have led him to support political programs that will certainly impoverish him. So dishonest science is in fact a far greater evil than the rather wacky tribe of kneejerk nature-lovers.
Clinging to disproven theories is also rampant in my own field of academic specialization -- psychology -- but, fortunately, nobody takes much notice of psychologists.
For more on the poor track record of epidemiological "findings", see the sad caution from a medical researcher that I reproduced as part of my post about the latest vitamin D nonsense. Note also another review article on cholesterol and fat myths that I have linked to before.
"BEIJING NEEDS COAL TO FUEL ECONOMIC GROWTH - AND GUARANTEE ITS VERY SURVIVAL"
Wu Gui has been a coal miner for 34 years. He says coal is a key to China's economic success. China's manufacturing juggernaut is largely fueled by coal-fired power stations, like this one in Datong, Shanxi province. Seventy percent of China's energy comes from coal, the dirtiest of all fuels to produce energy. Coal is literally powering China's seemingly unstoppable rise to superpower status, but not without costs to people and the environment. Coal miner Wu Gui, who has been working the mines for 34 years, describes his role in China's economy as "a glorious job." "I am making a contribution to the country," he says. "If we couldn't find coal, China couldn't get richer and more powerful, and we wouldn't be able to improve people's living standards."
Beijing is relying on men like Wu to power its future, says Yang Fuqiang of the global Energy Foundation. He notes that China is the world's leading consumer of coal. China will build 500 coal-fired power plants in the next decade, at the rate of almost one a week. This massive appetite for coal means equally huge greenhouse gas emissions. But Xu Dingming, one of the men in charge of China's energy policy, says coal-fired power plants are the quickest solution to its urgent need for more power.
China has more than 10 million people who still don't have electricity. In rural areas, many children have never seen an electric light. Coal-fired power plants are not just bringing light to rural villages. They're also powering the factories that make up China's exploding manufacturing base. In the past year, China has added generating capacity that is equal to the whole of France's electricity grid.
But this ravenous demand for electricity is putting pressure on the coal mines - and there's a terrible price to be paid. In the village of Xishui, 69-year-old Tou Deyue scrambles over the rubble outside his front gate. "Look how it's all collapsed here," he says. "You can imagine how much worse it was underground." Each day when he sees the rubble, he's reminded of his loss - his son died inside the coal mine, along with 71 others, in a gas explosion two years ago.
Tou says that the rising price of coal blinded the mine boss to everything. Three days before the explosion, someone had reported a gas leak in the mine. But the boss ignored it and ordered miners to keep working, Tou says. He says the boss only cared about production and profit - not the safety of workers. China has 5 million coal miners and the search for coal kills thousands of them each year.
But there's another price that the whole world will pay in terms of the effects on climate. Beijing needs coal to fuel economic growth - and guarantee its very survival. Yet its coal habit means it will soon overtake the United States as the biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, some say as early as this year. How much money and effort Beijing chooses to put into controlling the emissions will be a critical factor in global warming. If China doesn't act aggressively, its addiction to coal will have a profound effect, not just domestically but on the rest of the world as well.
Source
EU BURDEN SHARING: WILL EASTERN EUROPE PAY THE PRICE?
The European Commission told Estonia on Friday to slash its proposed cap on 2008-2012 industrial carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by nearly 50 percent in its latest move to shore up the emissions trading scheme. The European Union executive demanded Estonia limit emissions from companies covered by the scheme to 12.7 million tonnes annually, a 47.8 percent reduction from the country's original proposal.
The EU scheme sets limits on the amount of CO2 factories such as power stations and oil refineries may emit. Companies sell permits to emit if they come in below their caps or buy them if they produce more CO2 than allowed.
Preliminary data from 2006 showed Estonian companies covered by the scheme emitted 12.04 million tonnes of CO2 that year, far below a government allocation of more than 18 million tonnes. Estonia is a small player in the overall EU scheme. Roughly 40 installations in the country were covered in the 2005-2007 period, accounting for less than 1 percent of the total number of allowances issued EU-wide. Germany, by comparison, had some 1,850 installations in that period, accounting for about 23 percent of CO2 allowances.
But the Commission's action is significant in sending a consistent signal to the carbon market that it wants to create scarcity in the number of permits available in the second phase. Carbon prices for 2008 delivery rose 15 cents to 19.25 euros per CO2 tonne on the European Climate Exchange after the Commission decision, reversing an earlier fall.
The scheme is the 27-nation EU's key tool to fight climate change and meet commitments to cut emissions agreed under the Kyoto Protocol. Brussels has now issued decisions on 20 plans. Of those, only three countries -- Britain, France and Slovenia -- have not been forced to adjust their proposed caps.
The Commission demanded big cuts after 2005 data showed EU governments gave away more emissions rights to industry than needed, leading to a crash in CO2 allowance prices. In addition to cutting its cap, the Commission said Estonia must provide more information on how companies that enter the scheme at a later stage will be treated.
Source
MORE PERSPECTIVE ON RECENT HURRICANE ACTIVITY
A few months ago I referenced a talk given by the National Hurricane Center's Chris Landsea on hurricanes and climate change, and whether the recent upsurge in activity is due to global warming or changes in the way we monitor hurricanes. Landsea's argument, in contrast to the likes of Kerry Emanuel, Greg Holland, Judith Curry and others, is that observers missed so many storms during the pre-satellite era that a re-analysis of past data might explain why hurricanes seem to have become more common and destructive in the last 30 years. We missed so many past storms, in fact, that Landsea's research suggests historical Atlantic storm totals should be inflated by 3.2 named storms a year between the period of 1900-1965, and 1 storm between 1966 and 2002, to match the modern era.
He has now published this work in the American Geophysical Union's peer-reviewed EOS Transactions, but, so far, I've been unable to find so much as an abstract online. Landsea sent me a copy of his paper, however, and it includes the intriguing graphic below, which goes a long way toward making his point.
The point made by the graphic is pretty simple -- three-quarters of known hurricanes struck land in the pre-satellite era, whereas only 59 percent do so in the modern era. I think we all know the reason for this discrepancy is that, without satellites, past observers were missing sea-only hurricanes, or "fish storms." The critical question is how much of an artifact all the new observational equipment has inserted into the Atlantic hurricane dataset.
Landsea argues it's rather large, writing in the paper: "Thus large, long-term 'trends' in tropical cyclone frequency are primarily manifestations of increased monitoring capabilities and likely not related to any real change in the climate in which they develop. Obviously, better monitoring in recent decades will also increase our ability to accurately measure tropical cyclone intensity and duration, though these are beyond the scope of this article."
Others, such as Holland, say the "observational artifact" in past hurricane data is much smaller. But if Landsea is right, the present hurricane activity we've seen in the Atlantic is consistent with storm activity during the last century. What is becoming clear with Landsea's new work, along with this recent article in Geophysical Research Letters, is that the debate over global warming and hurricane activity remains very far from being settled. Anyone who tells you otherwise is ignoring the scientific literature.
Source
THE LITTLE ICE AGE: UPDATED NOTE ON THE WEB
An email to Benny Peiser from Syun-Ichi Akasofu [sakasofu@iarc.uaf.edu], Director International Arctic Research Center P.O. Box 757340 930 Koyukuk Drive Fairbanks, Alaska
Thank you very much for including my contribution "Is the Earth still recovering from the 'Little Ice Age'?" in your information system. There have been a number of responses, but none of them has so far found any flaw. It appears that the Little Ice Age is forgotten. I gave several talks to professional groups on the contents, but they cannot find any fundamental error. Therefore, I decided to update my contribution. My conclusion is based on what many people agree on. I would very much appreciate it if you would kindly include the updated version. Here is the link
A REAL danger (unlike all the Greenie scares): "Altogether it is thought -though it is really only a guess, based on extrapolating from cratering rates on the Moon-that some two thousand asteroids big enough to imperil civilized existence regularly cross our orbit. But even a small asteroid -the size of a house, say-could destroy a city. The number of these relative tiddlers in Earth-crossing orbits is almost certainly in the hundreds of thousands and possibly in the millions, and they are nearly impossible to track. The first one wasn't spotted until 1991, and that was after it had already gone by. Named 1991 BA, it was noticed as it sailed past us at a distance of 170,000 kilometres -in cosmic terms the equivalent of a bullet passing through one's sleeve without touching the arm. Two years later, another, somewhat larger asteroid missed us by just 145,000 kilometers -the closest pass yet recorded. It, too, was not seen until it had passed and would have arrived without warning."
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Many people would like to be kind to others so Leftists exploit that with their nonsense about equality. Most people want a clean, green environment so Greenies exploit that by inventing all sorts of far-fetched threats to the environment. But for both, the real motive is generally to promote themselves as wiser and better than everyone else, truth regardless.
Global warming has taken the place of Communism as an absurdity that "liberals" will defend to the death regardless of the evidence showing its folly. Evidence never has mattered to real Leftists
For more postings from me, see TONGUE-TIED, EDUCATION WATCH, POLITICAL CORRECTNESS WATCH, FOOD & HEALTH SKEPTIC, GUN WATCH, SOCIALIZED MEDICINE, AUSTRALIAN POLITICS, DISSECTING LEFTISM, IMMIGRATION WATCH and EYE ON BRITAIN. My Home Pages are here or here or here. Email me (John Ray) here. For times when blogger.com is playing up, there are mirrors of this site here and here.
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Jim Hansen and his twin
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