Saturday, February 03, 2007


The latest IPCC report is not scary enough for the Greenies. It says that sea levels are unlikely to rise much!

Climate experts have lashed out at a UN report which they say puts forward an unreasonably optimistic view of the global warming associated climate change. The report is the first of the four major global warming reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and is due to be out for a debate in Paris on Friday. The experts have argued that the report's prediction of slowly rising sea levels is not justified since it has not taken into account the melt-off of big ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. They "don't take into account the gorillas - Greenland and Antarctica," Lonnie Thompson, a polar ice specialist and an earth sciences professor at Ohio State University told the AP. "I think there are unpleasant surprises as we move into the 21st century." While the advocates of the report believe that ice melt is temporary, others are calling it an underestimation of the looming danger. ....



So the IPCC report that's going to be released on Friday isn't gloomy enough, eh? It will find less projected temperature rise and less predicted sea level rise than it did in 2001. Good news, no? Not even close. That simply isn't good enough for those who want to break the back of the world's energy system, so they have to attack it. For years, global warming alarmists built up "the consensus of scientists" as the answer to legitimate concerns of climate skeptics. Now that they have seemingly successfully shut skeptical voices out of the debate on global warming, they have embarked on a process of delegitimization of that very consensus. It is too cautious, they argue, too bureaucratic. They, the alarmists, are the only voices of truth in the debate and anyone else is incompetent, a fraud or a denier. The "consensus" scientists who went along with the alarmists will now find themselves the targets of abuse, insinuation and ad hominem attacks. Welcome to the club.


MIT Climate Scientist Calls Fears of Global Warming 'Silly' - Equates Concern to `Little Kids' Attempting to "Scare Each Other"

MIT's Richard Lindzen called fears of manmade global warming `silly" and debated PBS's Bill Nye "The Science Guy" and the controversial Weather Channel host Heidi Cullen on last night's Larry King Live. At one point, CNN host Larry King cautioned Nye against making a bet with Lindzen over who was correct about the science of global warming. "[Lindzen's] from M.I.T. he knows what he's talking about," King warned Nye.

Lindzen mocked fears of global warming by comparing them to children's imaginations. "I think it's mainly just like little kids locking themselves in dark closets to see how much they can scare each other and themselves," Lindzen said.

Lindzen, a past UN IPCC contributor, also explained how only a dozen scientists were involved in writing the 2001 IPCC media-hyped "Summary For Policymakers" that purported to speak for thousands of scientists.

More here. Full CNN transcript here


From "Global and Planetary Change", Article in Press

Climate forced atmospheric CO2 variability in the early Holocene: A stomatal frequency reconstruction

C.A. Jessen et al.


The dynamic climate in the Northern Hemisphere during the early Holocene could be expected to have impacted on the global carbon cycle. Ice core studies however, show little variability in atmospheric CO2. Resolving any possible centennial to decadal CO2 changes is limited by gas diffusion through the firn layer during bubble enclosure. Here we apply the inverse relationship between stomatal index (measured on sub-fossil leaves) and atmospheric CO2 to complement ice core records between 11,230 and 10,330 cal. yr BP.

High-resolution sampling and radiocarbon dating of lake sediments from the Faroe Islands reconstruct a distinct CO2 decrease centred on ca. 11,050 cal. yr BP, a consistent and steady decline between ca. 10,900 and 10,600 cal. yr BP and an increased instability after ca. 10,550 cal. yr BP. The earliest decline lasting ca. 150 yr is probably associated with the Preboreal Oscillation, an abrupt climatic cooling affecting much of the Northern Hemisphere a few hundred years after the end of the Younger Dryas.

In the absence of known global climatic instability, the decline to ca. 10,600 cal. yr BP is possibly due to expanding vegetation in the Northern Hemisphere. The increasing instability in CO2 after 10,600 cal. yr BP occurs during a period of increasing cooling of surface waters in the North Atlantic and some increased variability in proxy climate indicators in the region.

The reconstructed CO2 changes also show a distinct similarity to indicators of changing solar activity. This may suggest that at least the Northern Hemisphere was particularly sensitive to changes in solar activity during this time and that atmospheric CO2 concentrations fluctuated via rapid responses in climate.

1. Introduction

On sub-millennial timescales, changes in global biomass and ocean temperatures/salinities control exchanges between the main global carbon reservoirs (oceans, terrestrial biosphere and atmosphere). In the Northern Hemisphere, the early Holocene (ca. 11,600 to 8000 cal. yr BP) was a climatically dynamic period with, for example, meltwater pulses, vegetational colonisation, soil formation and oceanic circulation reorganisations on decadal to centennial timescales. It is unlikely therefore, that atmospheric CO2 concentrations were stable during this period. However, ice core measurements of CO2 during the early Holocene show little variability (Monnin et al., 2001).

Atmospheric CO2 is a well-mixed atmospheric trace gas responding to carbon flux variations in both the Southern and Northern hemispheres. Carbon exchanges are both directly and indirectly related to climate and many proxy records register abrupt climatic events during the early Holocene (Behre, 1978, Bjorck et al., 1997, Hald and Hagen, 1998, Bjorck et al., 2001 and Sejrup et al., 2001). One of the most widespread cooling events occurred a few hundred years after the end of the Younger Dryas (YD) cold event and is generally known as the Preboreal Oscillation (PBO) (Bjorck et al., 1996 and Bjorck et al., 1997). The PBO is difficult to 14C date reliably but most probably lies ca. 11,300 to 11,150 cal. yr BP (Bjorck et al., 1997) and has been recognized for a number of years.

Other events, however, of varying magnitude, spatial scale and timing are now emerging from ice cores (Johnsen et al., 1992 and O'Brien et al., 1995), terrestrial (Bjorck et al., 2001) and marine (Hald and Hagen, 1998) sediment proxies. Measurements of past atmospheric CO2, and therefore indications of changing fluxes, are obtained directly from air bubbles trapped in Antarctic ice cores and provide excellent records over long time periods (Fischer et al., 1999, Indermahle et al., 1999, Petit et al., 1999 and Monnin et al., 2001). The recognition of higher frequency changes in atmospheric CO2 is limited by the inherent smoothing of ice core gas records by diffusion (Trudinger et al., 2003). To obtain a better time resolution of CO2 changes it would be preferable to use the higher accumulation rates of Greenland sites but this is generally avoided due to the dust related in situ production of CO2 (Anklin et al., 1995 and Tschumi and Stauffer, 2000).

To investigate how strongly the records are smoothed, Spahni et al. (2003) applied a diffusion and enclosure model to a decrease in CH4 through the cooling event dated to ca. 8200 yr BP in both GRIP (Greenland) and Dome C (Antarctica) ice cores. The model estimated that only 34 to 59% of the original atmospheric amplitude shows up in the Dome C record for an event of ca. 100 to 200 yr and that only events of more than 500- (Dome C) and 62- (GRIP) year duration will register 95% of the actual atmospheric gas variation. Diffusion smoothing mechanisms affect CH4 and CO2 in the same way and it is therefore possible that any early Holocene short-term CO2 variations lasting less than 1 to 2 centuries are strongly dampened in the Antarctic ice core records. Dome C is generally considered the best resolved record of atmospheric CO2 over the early Holocene period (Monnin et al., 2004). However, it indicates maximum amplitude of variation of only 5 to 6 ppmv over this time period (i.e. similar to the modern annual variation). This limited variability is likely to partly reflect the relatively large age distribution per air sample (ca. 200 yr) for this ice core, and the difficulties in resolving changes on centennial or sub-centennial timescales create a need for other complementary methods.

Less direct, proxy reconstructions may therefore be the more sensitive archives when short-term, rapid changes are of interest. The relatively new method of stomatal frequency analysis applies the physiological response of certain C3 plants to changing concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere (Woodward, 1987). Rapidly accumulating lake sediments, if supplied with sufficient numbers of leaves from the surrounding vegetation, allow the reconstruction of atmospheric CO2 changes on centennial to decadal timescales by applying its inverse relationship to stomatal frequency. This paper presents a stomatal frequency reconstruction of atmospheric CO2 at decadal resolution over the time period 11,230 to 10,330 cal. yr BP, supported by a highly resolved AMS radiocarbon chronology from lake sediments of the Faroe Islands (situated in the North Atlantic between south west Norway and Iceland).

As our atmospheric CO2 estimates should reflect the global net effect of carbon transfers between reservoirs responsive on sub-millennial to decadal timescales, we also discuss possible causes for the changes in reconstructed CO2 in relation to evidence of climate variation and solar activity during the early Holocene. [...] 8. Conclusions By using a stomatal index based proxy for atmospheric CO2 concentration we have reconstructed changes during the early Holocene period (11,230 to 10,330). We have shown that to resolve changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration on timescales representative of its response rate, a proxy complementing ice core measurements is necessary. In contrast to ice core measurements, which cannot resolve CO2 variability on these timescales, our results indicate that the global carbon cycle was not in steady state during this period of the early Holocene. The main conclusions can be summarized thus:

* Stomatal index reconstructions of atmospheric CO2 concentrations can record variability and trends on decadal timescales, complementing the inherently smoothed ice core records. The trends of changing atmospheric CO2(SI) during the early Holocene can be accounted for by the dynamic climatic changes in the Northern Hemisphere at this time.

* During the period ca. 11,230ƒ_"10,330 cal. yr BP, stomatal frequency-inferred atmospheric CO2 concentrations demonstrate variability on centennial timescales. This could indicate that the global carbon cycle was not in steady state as is suggested by ice core CO2 measurements, which cannot resolve changes on these scales.

* During a climatically stable Southern Hemisphere in the early Holocene, the regional dynamic climate of the Northern Hemisphere is reflected in global CO2 as reconstructed from stomatal frequency and is therefore a major contributor to changes in the global carbon cycle.

* The CO2(SI) reconstruction through the early Holocene bears a striking similarity to reconstructed solar activity changes. This may suggest a rapid response of climate to minor changes in solar activity during this dynamic period, which in turn impacted the global carbon cycle. This can, to some extent, also be seen in the climatic responses associated with the Maunder Minimum in the mid-17th to early 18th centuries. [i.e. Changes in the output of the sun came first and that caused changing CO2 levels -- so the same could be happening today. SUVs off the hook!]


Australia's "drought"

When it didn't rain for a short while in much of Australia, it was all due to global warming. Now there is flooding over much of Northern Australia and the dams are full to overflowing. So what caused that? Global cooling? Note that in the report below it is said that it is not raining in Southeast Queensland (where I live). I guess I must have imagined all the downpours of the last few days

North Queensland and the Northern Territory are on cyclone watch today amid concerns a tropical low on the Gulf of Carpentaria may develop into the season's first cyclone. The warning comes after heavy rains have already left dams overflowing, stranded airline passengers, and cut highways and railway lines. The Bureau of Meteorology in Darwin today issued a cyclone warning for Cape York and areas of the Northern Territory and will continue to monitor the area.

The low has already caused torrential downpours across much of Queensland's north with flood waters blocking roads and rail lines between Cairns and Mackay. Some areas have reported more than 400mm [15 inches] of rain.

About 230 people spent the night at Whitsunday airport, north of Mackay, after being stranded by flood waters. The passengers were due to board a flight about 8pm (AEST) yesterday but extreme weather caused the flight to be cancelled as water flooded over Lascelles Avenue, which runs from the Bruce Highway to the airport. More than 280mm has fallen at nearby Proserpine since 9am yesterday and rain is expected to continue over the next 48 hours. Meanwhile, Ingham, north of Townsville is isolated after flood waters blocked access roads. Flood warnings have been issued for rivers between Cooktown and Mackay and the Bruce Highway has been blocked in several places. The Bruce Highway is cut between Mackay and Townsville and north of Ingham, as more than 400mm of rainfall was recorded in parts of the state's north over a 24-hour period.

Queensland Rail has cancelled passenger and freight services until at least Saturday with flood damage to the rail network in a number of locations. The weather also affected schools, with ABC radio reporting some teachers had to spend the night in their classrooms. "And it is still raining," said senior bureau of meteorology forecaster Geoff Doueal.

Heavy rain from a monsoonal low is likely to continue for at least another two days. But the question everyone is asking "Can we send it down south?" is not likely to be answered anytime soon. "It is not expected to come down to southeast Queensland," Mr Doueal said. "We can expect mostly fine weather around Brisbane over the weekend and into early next week."

Less than a week ago, Townsville residents faced level 3 water restrictions and today the dam is full to its existing capacity (75,000 megalitres) and flooding 2m over the spillway. "We were as concerned as Brisbane a week ago," said NQ Water chairman Ian Hamilton. "But luckily we have now got rain and enough water reserves to last us for another year and a bit more."

Retired Townsville couple Merv and Wendy Newnham were among hundreds to witness the flooding over Aplins Weir in the lower reaches of Ross River. "It's been at least seven years since we have seen it so high," Mr Newnham said. "It is truly a sight to see."

Severe weather senior forecaster David Alexander said the tropical low in the Gulf could develop into a cyclone sometime today. "We are expecting it to re-curve through the Gulf and probably, if it goes ashore anywhere, it is likely to do so on the Northern Territory side of the border," Mr Alexander said.



Many people would like to be kind to others so Leftists exploit that with their nonsense about equality. Most people want a clean, green environment so Greenies exploit that by inventing all sorts of far-fetched threats to the environment. But for both, the real motive is generally to promote themselves as wiser and better than everyone else, truth regardless.

Global warming has taken the place of Communism as an absurdity that "liberals" will defend to the death regardless of the evidence showing its folly. Evidence never has mattered to real Leftists

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