PESKY INDIAN RAINFALL

As the journal article abstracted below notes, it is a "puzzle" that Indian rainfall has not increased with global warming

Increasing Trend of Extreme Rain Events Over India in a Warming Environment

By: B. N. Goswami et al.

Against a backdrop of rising global surface temperature, the stability of the Indian monsoon rainfall over the past century has been a puzzle. By using a daily rainfall data set, we show (i) significant rising trends in the frequency and the magnitude of extreme rain events and (ii) a significant decreasing trend in the frequency of moderate events over central India during the monsoon seasons from 1951 to 2000. The seasonal mean rainfall does not show a significant trend, because the contribution from increasing heavy events is offset by decreasing moderate events. A substantial increase in hazards related to heavy rain is expected over central India in the future.

Source





Russian scientists predict new Ice Age in 50 years

Researchers with the Russian Academy of Sciences warned Wednesday that the Earth could be headed for a 60-year cooldown, the news agency Interfax reported. Scientists based at the academy's Pulkovskaya Observatory in St Petersburg, Russia, said they expected a gradual decrease in global temperatures in 2012-15, followed by a more dramatic, 60-year period of cold to come in 2055-60. Khabibullo Abdusamatov, chief researcher at the observatory, said the predictions were based on solar cycles, and that after the 60-year glimpse of the Ice Ages warmer weather could be expected. Abdusamatov did not say how much cooler the Earth would get.

Little is known about long-term weather patterns. Evidence that the globe's surface temperature has warmed by about a half-degree Celsius in recent years has livened debate about whether a buildup of greenhouse gases is to blame for global warming, or if it is part of a naturally occurring cycle. The United States' National Academy of Sciences has reported it cannot say with any certainty what has caused the current warming. Scientists have noted a warming of the surface temperature appeared to have occurred between the 1890s and 1940s, and that a 30-year period of cooler temperatures followed.

What is clear is that a little warming goes a long way: During the most recent ice age, which ended 10,000 years ago, much of North America, including New York, is thought to have been covered in glaciers. The global surface temperature then was some 4 to 5 degrees colder than it currently is.

The Russian academy, meanwhile, did not use its predictions to weigh in on whether greenhouse gases will lead to catastrophic global warming. Abdusamatov, the researcher, did add that his colleagues had prepared instruments to monitor changes in the Earth's temperature from outer space. The technology is hoped to be installed on the International Space Station in 2008, with observations to begin in 2009. 'Such a highly accurate apparatus does not yet exist anywhere in the world,' Abdusamatov said without specifying what exactly the apparatus was.

He said the Russian government had contributed 20 million rubles (7.5 million US dollars) to cover half the project's costs. The scientists, Abdusamatov added, are hoping to find sponsors to provide the other half.

Source

More on the Russian prediction below:

About 87 percent of Russians believe that the weather in January of 2006 was colder than usual in their regions. More than one-fourth of the polled Russian citizens said that they experienced health problems because of the cold. Therefore, pessimistic forecasts predicting even colder times on the planet sound quite trustworthy against such a background.

Many media outlets both in Russia and abroad have already exposed their forecasts about the new Ice Age. Journalists paid special attention to the statements released by the chief of the Space Exploration Department of the Central Astronomical Observatory of the Russian Academy of Sciences, the supervisor of the Astrometria project of the Russian part of the International Space Station, Doctor of Physical Sciences, Khabibullo Abdusamatov.

The scientist particularly said that a global reduction of temperatures would hit planet Earth in the middle of the 21st century because of receding solar radiation. Mr. Abdusamatov told Pravda.Ru that the new Ice Age will start very slowly. According to the scientist, the process will gather pace in 2050-55.

Abdusamatov compares the imminent reduction of temperatures with Maunder's minimum of solar activity registered in 1645-1715 (named so in honour of the English astronomer of the 19th century, Walter Maunder), when all canals froze in Holland and severe cold forced many people to leave their settlements. "The coldest years of the middle of the 21st century will be warmer than at the end of the 17th century," the scientist clarified.

Khabibullo Abdusamatov also explained the structure of solar activity cycles that last for 11 and 100 years. The scientist said that 11-year cycles do not affect the Earth's climate. Eighty-year cycles do not have much influence either, although 200-year cycles are much more powerful. The theory, the scientist told Pravda.Ru, was not considered a common scientific theory in the world. "The whole world has recognized the global warming theory, which pictures catastrophic situations in the future. I do not march in step with the world at this point. However, my theory has raised a certain interest in other countries. Hardly had I made a statement to RIA Novosti when I received several messages from scientists living in the USA, Iceland and other countries. They wanted to know more of my theory. They also want to know if I have delivered a detailed report on the matter and where it was published," the scientist said.

More here






HAS GLOBAL COOLING ARRIVED ALREADY?

Post below lifted from Lubos Motl

Four days ago, the daily cold records were set in most of the South Florida.

Yesterday, i.e. on Monday, the Yukon territory in Canada has seen its coldest November day on record: in -41 Celsius degrees which also happens to be around -41 Fahrenheit degrees, they could test some kinds of superconductors. Congratulations! ;-)



In Calgary, Canada, they're just approaching the record chill in the 110-year history. Nanaimo, British Columbia had a record daily snow for November and 56 cm for the weekend, and they are expecting a deep freeze.

In Vancouver, Canada where they broke the precipitation records two weeks ago, 30 centimeters of snow caused outages, a death, and flight cancellations. With an update, British Columbia that broke the snowfall record has seen four people killed by the cold so far.

Victoria, Canada has seen its record two-day snowfall on Monday and now it's time for a big chill.

Juneau, Alaska has broken the record low from 1985.

Oregon and Washington where they improved the record for the monthly rain in November are preparing for a winter storm and, together with Idaho, a deep freeze. Seattle has broken cold records for 11/29 by four degrees.



Sliding down icy SW 164th Street in Burien, WA, on Tuesday, before the cold really came to the town...

Monterey, California has near-record and near-freezing conditions on Wednesday and a real "freeze warming" is in effect for the interior valleys of San Francisco and Monterey Bay Areas for Thursday morning. Sacramento is forecast to match or beat the 1880 record low of 30 degrees F overnight.

Winter chill will hit Arizona soon, too. Utah has seen its record low afternoon temperature and received it first snow. Salt Lake City broke its previous record cold temperature by 5 degrees and Nevada is not far from the record either. Most of the fresh seven Northwestern storm casualties died in Colorado. In Texas, they learn that temperatures can plummet by 30-40 degrees F in less than one day.

What was happening on the opposite hemisphere yesterday, for example in Antarctica? Employees from New Zealand are responsible for maintaining Scott's sleeping bag in the historic Antarctic hut. The four guys had to shovel 85 tons of snow which improved the previous record for a snowdrift by 33%.



When you read these comments, you must be almost certain that the researchers from the Russian Academy of Sciences must be right when they predict a new ice age for the next 60 years. Before you make this conclusion, notice that here in New England, people only go skiing on artificial snow. ;-) At the end of November, Massachusetts has normal temperatures but Norway and Finland have a kind of summer in November.

Some places often get warm and other places often get cold. It has been like that for billions of years even though this is not the conclusion you would make after reading most of the newspapers these days. ;-)

Note that the DPA article under the previous "new ice age" link says that the U.S. National Academy of Sciences reported that it couldn't be said with any certainty what caused the recent warming: the long-term weather pattern remain largely unknown, they correctly write.

The only clear thing is that most of Northern America, including Manhattan, was covered by a mile-thick glacier in the period that ended 10,000 years ago, they argue. We will see whether the advocates of the action against the global warming can return the Earth to these natural and nice conditions before the evil capitalist species called homo sapiens (together with corrupt Mother Nature) started to ruin the planet. ;-)

The previous posting about record cold temperatures was focusing on Australia





Australia: No substitute for new dams

As any engineer will tell you, when it comes to water infrastructure, Sydney cannot avoid building a new dam indefinitely. Everything else - desalination, recycling, stormwater retention, rainwater tanks, reducing demand, water trading, ruining irrigators - is tinkering at the edges, buying time until the inevitability of a new dam sinks in, as a growing population outstrips supply. Yet for 30 years politicians of all stripes have been loath to utter the "D" word, for fear of antagonising the green vote.

Debnam [NSW conservative leader] is no exception, refusing to mention dam building as part of any water strategy. Morrison confirmed yesterday that Debnam's shadow cabinet this week ruled out building a dam at Welcome Reef, the Shoalhaven River location identified by water planners of a previous generation. "It is definitely not on the Liberal agenda." By deleting Welcome Reef as an option, Debnam has endorsed a ploy of the former premier Bob Carr to lock up 6000 hectares of land that had been set aside for the dam by our more foresighted forebears. Rather than promising to reverse that shameful decision, Debnam has legitimised easily contested green propaganda which claims Welcome Reef is in a hopeless rain shadow and would destroy endangered species.

The Queensland Premier, Peter Beattie, has shown that advocating a new dam, or even two, does not have to be the electoral poison of conventional wisdom. This week he began to make good his election promise by selling the power retailer Energex to raise $300 million towards the cost of new dams.

Even the NSW Premier, Morris Iemma, bowed to the inevitable last month when he announced the first big dam in 20 years would be built at Tillegra, north of Dungog. Existing dams serving the rapidly growing Central Coast are down to a critical 15 per cent. Debnam's response was to dismiss the dam as a diversionary bluff.

At a national level, the Prime Minister, John Howard, and his water tsar, Malcolm Turnbull, have given the appearance of taking water management seriously, with a new Office of Water Resources and the $2 billion Water Fund to deliver infrastructure. But, again, policy appears to be heavily influenced by the Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists, which was founded and funded by the green group WWF (formerly the World Wide Fund for Nature) and is opposed to dam building. While Turnbull has stressed "no option should be pre-censored", last month he released a discussion paper, Securing Australia's Urban Water Supplies, which effectively ruled out dams as an option.

The paper, prepared by the financial and economic consultancy Marsden Jacob Associates, cites the Wentworth Group as its authority, talking at length about why the construction of major dams is "unlikely in the future". It cites environmental damage and cost, claims the "best sites are taken" and says climate change makes dams less reliable. Meanwhile, dissenting voices in water management are being ignored.

Take Peter Millington, who was the director-general of the NSW Department of Water Resources from 1986 to 1995 and now works as a consultant on water management with the World Bank. While not billing himself as a dam fanatic, he says governments need to acknowledge that "probably" dams have to be part of the solution. "We don't want to stuff up the rivers but people want balance . Sooner or later we will have to build Welcome Reef Dam." Millington spends time in developing countries advising on long-term water planning and then despairs when he comes home "and we're doing nothing". He says there has been "no long-term rational water planning here for at least 15 years". The policy he sees is "Band-Aid, ad hoc stuff".

Then there are the Tamworth engineers and dam advocates Michael Firth and Colin Joyce, who managed to get a meeting with the Prime Minister earlier this year to present their ideas for vast projects across Australia, including more than 10 dams, pipelines, weirs, river diversions and recycled water schemes. Buoyed by what they saw as his enthusiastic response, they travelled around the country at their own expense surveying sites for water infrastructure projects - from the Welcome Reef Dam to an ambitious and probably impossibly controversial inland diversion of the Clarence River. The result is an 83-page document they hope will be taken seriously. They say private companies are keen to get involved in building the infrastructure. All it would take is someone in government to acknowledge dam building as part of the solution to Australia's water problems. "There is plenty of water," Joyce says. "We just need to catch the floodwaters and store them. No one has yet found a better way than a dam."

With an election looming, Debnam had a chance to be bold like Beattie, to show real leadership on the state's most pressing problem. But it seems he has squibbed it, and no amount of clever strategy from Morrison will hide that fact.

Source

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Many people would like to be kind to others so Leftists exploit that with their nonsense about equality. Most people want a clean, green environment so Greenies exploit that by inventing all sorts of far-fetched threats to the environment. But for both, the real motive is to promote themselves as wiser and better than everyone else, truth regardless.

Global warming has taken the place of Communism as an absurdity that "liberals" will defend to the death regardless of the evidence showing its folly. Evidence never has mattered to real Leftists

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