SOLAR ACTIVITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE

An email to Benny Peiser from Will Alexander (alexwjr@iafrica.com). WJR Alexander is Professor Emeritus, Department of Civil and Biosystems Engineering University of Pretoria, South Africa

I have watched recent developments with increasing alarm. What I completely fail to understand is the fundamental lack of knowledge of the most basic issue of climate change science - the influence of solar activity on global climate. Why do climate change scientists continue to ignore the wealth of literature stretching back for more than 100 years, relating to the multiyear anomalies in the hydrometeorological data and their linkage with solar activity? The following is a short memorandum on the subject. There are no abstract theories or hypotheses so it should not be too difficult for others to check its validity.

CLIMATE PREDICTION MODEL

The synchronous linkage between sunspot activity, floods, droughts and surface temperature has been recorded and published for more than 100 years in South Africa and elsewhere. My detailed analyses of a very large and comprehensive hydrometeorological database showed a statistically significant (95%) 21-year periodicity in the South African data during the past century. I found no statistically significant 11-year periodicity. I also found that the characteristics of the hydrometeorological data differed during the alternating 11 and 10-year periods that made up the 21-year periodicity. Other South African scientists have noted and published similar anomalies in the data.

I used the regular, periodic changes to develop a successful climate prediction model published in 1995 and updated in 2005. Although not part of the model, I demonstrated an unambiguous synchronous linkage with sunspot activity. This information was also published.

For the past four years F Bailey from the UK and I have carried out independent studies. I studied the hydrometeorological data and he studied solar activity. We made contact earlier this year and found a clear and unambiguous causal linkage between solar activity and the hydrometeorological responses.

CAUSAL LINKAGE

The solar system consists of the sun and the orbiting bodies, of which the four major planets Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune are the most important. The solar system has a centre of mass, (SSCM). All bodies in the solar system, including the sun, orbit around the SSCM. The SSCM has a constant velocity through galactic space. At times the four major planets are grouped together in their orbits and at other times they are scattered around the SSCM. When they are grouped together, their combined effect causes the sun to follow a weighted reciprocal path around the SSCM. The distance between the sun and the SSCM therefore varies. This creates a wobble in the sun's trajectory through space.

Our recent analyses demonstrate the following. The alternating grouping and dispersion of the four major planets occurs at regular intervals of about 21 years. This is synchronous with the 21-year periodicity in the hydrometeorological data.

During this period the solar system performs approximately one and three quarter rotations through galactic space. Starting with the sun's position trailing that of the SSCM, the sun accelerates to take up a balancing position ahead of the SSCM. This takes place during the first rotation of the solar system. The duration is typically 11 years. The sun continues rotating about the SSCM but its galactic velocity decelerates as it returns to the trailing position. The duration of this rotation is typically about 10 years. The 21-year solar cycle is then repeated.

Both the acceleration and deceleration processes result in an increase in sunspot numbers while the intervening sunspot minima occur when the sun is in the trailing and leading positions. The mechanism that produces the sunspots is unknown but several theories exist. This synchronous occurrence of sunspot activity with the sun's acceleration and deceleration as the solar system moves through galactic space is beyond doubt.

CHANGES IN THE RECEIPT OF SOLAR ENERGY

A consequence of the wobble in the sun's trajectory through galactic space is the ever-changing chord distance between the sun and earth. This in turn results in corresponding changes in the rate of solar energy received on earth. These changes are amenable to mathematical calculation. Our analyses show that the changes in the receipt of solar energy are appreciably greater than those generally quoted in the climate change literature.

VISUALISATION

The following example should help with the visualisation of the situation. Consider a ceiling fan mounted on the back of an open truck and tilted at a 45 degree upward angle facing the front of the vehicle. A marble is attached to the tip of one of the blades. The truck moves at a constant speed and the fan rotates at a constant speed. However, the road speed of the marble changes. At the 12 o'clock and 6 o'clock positions of the marble its road speed is the same as the truck speed. At the 3 o'clock position the marble is moving forward and its road speed is accelerating. Conversely, at the 9 o'clock position the marble is moving backwards and its road speed is decelerating.

The same happens as the sun orbits around the SSCM. It is the galactic velocity that accelerates and decelerates. This results in increases in sunspot activity. The sunspot minima occur when the sun's galactic velocity equals that of the SSCM. This movement is amenable to mathematical calculation. Confirmation is the synchronous behaviour of multiyear changes in rainfall, river flow and flood peak maxima.

OUTSTANDING ISSUES

The two main outstanding issues are the physical mechanism that causes sunspot production resulting from the changes in the sun's galactic velocity, and the mechanism that links these changes with global climate. These do not negate the underlying processes. Our findings open a whole new field of research related to present and past climatic processes.

REPRODUCIBILITY

Our findings are based on readily available data published by the responsible national authorities. Our calculations are reproducible by anybody with sufficient knowledge in these fields. Despite a diligent search I was unable to detect any sustained changes in the hydrometeorological data that could be attributed to climate change, against the background of the statistically significant changes associated with solar activity.

Neither of us has received any financial or other support from any source. Our sole motivations were the advancement of science.




EUROPEAN EMISSIONS TRADING SCHEME DOOMED TO FAILURE?

(From Energy Policy. Volume 34, Issue 17 , November 2006, Pages 2615-2629. The Doi (permanent) address for the full article excerpted below is here)

Policy-making under uncertainty: Commentary upon the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme

By: Laura N. Haar and Lawrence Haar

Abstract

The authors undertake a critical assessment of the intellectual foundations supporting the new European Union (EU) Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS, or the Scheme), the cornerstone of polices designed to achieve the targets of the Kyoto Agreement of reducing emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). Despite its considerable scope, the authors found that officially sponsored research and academic efforts in support of ETS were surprisingly limited. Importantly, in advance of implementation, a definitive consensus on both the potential economic impact and the usefulness of the Scheme in reducing the GHG emissions had not been reached. Reviewing the literature, the authors encountered varying and, at times, conflicting viewpoints, officially and in academic research, on the potential economic impact of the Scheme. These included attempts to quantify its benefits and costs, raising concern that this huge and encompassing multi-national policy initiative may have been launched with inadequate intellectual ground-work. According to the authors consistency between the ETS and other EU policies, such as those relating to energy, should have been a key concern, but such aspects have received only minimal attention in both official and academic research. The European Commission has promoted open and competitive markets for gas and power across member states, but the record in achieving such conditions is relatively poor and the authors argue that, as a result, the environmental objectives of the EU Scheme may not be thwarted. In addition, continuing disagreement over the Kyoto Agreement itself-especially with regard to its potential costs and benefits-further frustrates efforts to rigorously justify a policy in support of reducing GHG emissions. The authors argue that, given the scope of the EU Scheme, the paucity of research evidencing that it is likely to succeed in reducing GHG emissions in the form of CO2 is surprising and should be of concern to those affected by it along with environmental campaigners, many of whom are enthusiastic supporters.

1. Introduction

In January 2005 began one of the most ambitious multi-national policy programmes in history, known as the European Union (EU) Emissions Trading Scheme (or ETS). The ETS is the vanguard for achieving compliance with the Kyoto Agreement on greenhouse gases (GHG) and involves 25 nations acting in a coordinated manner with regard to hydrocarbon emissions arising from combustion and chemical processes from over 9000 installations across the EU. The Scheme involves the allocation and trading of CO2 allowances to energy-using installations across Europe and has been conceived as a means of internalising the external social costs arising from CO2 emissions. Overcoming the disadvantages of quota constraints or a per unit tax on carbon emitted, the EU ETS is designed to minimise the overall cost of reducing GHG emissions by recognising that abatement costs are not uniform and that, through trading of allowances, the compliance costs may be reduced.1

Reflecting the scope and magnitude of the EU Scheme, considerable debate has arisen over its direct impact upon regulated utilities and indirect impact upon consumers and users of energy. Questions such as the following have been raised: Will the Scheme reduce GHG emissions? Will the Scheme promote energy efficiency on the part of energy-intensive sectors? Will the costs of compliance under the Scheme, as reflected in the price of CO2 allowances, be sufficient to promote energy conservation and reduce reliance upon carbon-based technologies? Will the Scheme encourage power generators in the immediate term to alter running regimes and the scheduling of plant merit order towards less carbon-intensive energy sources (and, in the longer term, away from carbon-based technologies) such as renewables? How will the burden of compliance under the Scheme rest between consumers and businesses? Will switching away from coal in favour of natural gas create upward pressure on hydrocarbon prices? Will the international competitiveness of energy-intensive sectors, e.g. bulk chemicals or aluminium sheet, be adversely affected? Will there be a long-term macro-economic impact occurring from transition and structural readjustment costs under the Scheme? These and many other questions in relation to the EU ETS are frequently mentioned in recent business and financial press and various policy forums.2

In the present research, as we examine the intellectual background for the EU ETS, we point out three main concerns. Firstly that, given the scope of the Scheme, it is somewhat surprising that research, both academic and official, into the potential impact has not been exhaustive. To that effect, in Section 2.1, we survey existing efforts and the extent to which a received view has emerged. We also analyse the context in which such research has been undertaken and examine whether its remit was appropriate and its objectives sufficiently ambitious. Secondly, the authors maintain that existing research has overlooked some critical aspects for the Scheme to function properly. Therefore, turning to the gaps in existing research, in Section 2.2, we look at the inter-action between the ETS and present EU energy policy, examining whether the two areas are consistent and compatible with one another. This subject raises a host of new questions on how the structure and behaviour of energy markets relates to the pursuit of environmental policies, such as the reduction of GHG through the EU Emissions Scheme. Thirdly, in Section 2.3, we focus upon the challenges of applying cost-benefit analysis to the ETS within the context of the Kyoto Agreement. We ask to what extent objective quantification of such benefits and costs are possible, and how helpful they might be in validating the EU Scheme. In Section 3, through exploring the intellectual foundations upon which the EU Scheme currently stands, we will examine the extent to which this ambitious policy is intellectually well-supported and the grounds for believing that it will achieve its objectives of reducing GHG emissions.

[...]

3. Conclusions

Summarising the above observations and remarks together, several themes may be distilled. Firstly, that the market structure and behaviour required for any such ETS to function as designed may demand a competitive market structure which is not what we have in place nor are likely to have in the future. Research therefore needs to be undertaken into the likely impact of the Scheme given the existing and future energy market structure and conduct in the EU, and, conversely, into how we can achieve environmental objectives given the conditions in place. Both the UK and European energy policy has not been successful in fostering an open and competitive, pan-European market in power and gas and, hence, there is a return to administered prices. The market structure throughout Europe today is highly vertically integrated with several regional cartels. Power, as a traded market on various exchanges, functions largely as day-ahead and within-day balancing and shaping market for power supply, with very limited liquidity along the forward curve. As such it reduces the scope for pure financial participants, critical to a liquid market for power capable of providing investment signals. Recognising such market structure and the potential to exercise market power, the probability remains that the cost of CO2 emissions allowances, as an output tax, will, in varying degrees and depending upon local conditions, be passed forward to industry, businesses and consumers. In such local conditions, the willingness of local regulators to selectively modify the behaviour, through price administration, of power generators figures strongly. In light of the above, the possibility of the second outcome-i.e. combining higher power prices to consumers and businesses but without any measurable benefit in reducing GHG emissions-is a distinct possibility and should be of major worry to environmental advocates.40 Creating simulations, as performed by various consulting organisations and as sponsored by various official organisations, while intellectually interesting, does not answer the questions necessary to rigorously complete the assessment of regulatory impact, address the broader economic impact concerns, and establish if the Scheme will help in reducing atmospheric GHG. Judgemental assumptions on the degree of pass-forward costs, as have been undertaken by consultants and as the DTI has entertained, are only informed opinions. The academic literature, meanwhile, though intriguing, has yet not evolved a received consensus on methods, model specifications and assumptions to be usable for applied policy analysis and research.

Turning to how we justify policy, we have highlighted briefly some of the varied opinions on the benefits of avoiding global warming and GHG emissions and the costs of implementing the Scheme. The absence of consensus in of itself points to the intellectually unstable grounds on which the EU Scheme in service to Kyoto has been pursued: an auto-de-fe. Although taking the lead on GHG emissions as the EU has done may encourage others to join, it is equally probable that almost half the world, driven by growing populations and committed to economic development, will not. The RIA undertaken by the UK Government, as supported by the efforts of consultants, along with other published research sponsored by the EU Commission and other official bodies, does not begin to come to grips with the huge uncertainties of the EU ETS, of whether it is quantitatively justified from a cost and benefits perspective and whether, given the state of energy markets and the behaviour of other countries outside the EU, has any hope of promoting the objectives of the Kyoto Agreement. In sum, we have a massive policy initiative - directly regulating over nine thousand of energy-using installations across the EU and, indirectly, millions of businesses and hundreds of millions of consumers - standing upon weak intellectual foundations. This should be of fundamental concern to individuals and to organisations committed to controlling the growth in GHG. Pursuing and supporting the EU Scheme under circumstances of manifest uncertainty with regard to its success, would seem difficult to defend.

Note: An "auto da fe" ("act of faith") was what the Spanish Inquisition called the burning of heretics. In using the term above, the authors are saying that the EU emissions scheme is a fanatical and destructive act motivated solely by religion. That rather defames the Inquisition. The Inquisition proceeded in a more judicial manner than the prophets of global warming do.





Unprecedented global warming?

One of the most contentious issues of the day is global warming. Those who openly discuss the subject fall into one of two camps. First, there are the environmental alarmists who only see the world in terms of urban sprawl, deforestation, and pollution. For this group, global warming provides the much-needed justification to curtail, or reverse, our current level of earth-unfriendly economic activity. The other group sees no evidence of harmful global warming. They view the draconian anti-business remedies as both unjustified and misguided.

Given the high stakes (from both a monetary and an emotional perspective), it should come as no surprise that there is a temptation for the first group to play fast and loose with the available scientific data. Findings that support global warming are highlighted, and those that do not are downplayed, omitted, or politicized. Global-warming computer models are frequently little more than high-tech "crystal balls." With the multitude of variables and assumptions that come into play, these computer models become highly suspect. In deciding which model to use, the critical question becomes: "How scary do you want the future to be?"

Ground zero in the global warming debate is the 1997 Kyoto Protocol Agreement. This treaty, yet to be ratified by the United States, calls for a reduction in greenhouse gases and fossil-fuel emissions to a level 5 to 7 percent below the 1990-benchmark year by 2012.1 The estimated compliance cost for the United States will be $300 billion a year.2 But the global solidarity to end global warming had a temporary setback last November at The Hague. Participating countries were unable to work out the details.

The Kyoto Protocol seems to be built on the following two assumptions: First, global warming is a function of human activity (with the biggest villains being automobiles, factories, and power plants), and second, we are currently experiencing unprecedented levels of global warming. However, a review of the earth's most recent "geological history" brings into question both assumptions and puts the entire subject in a different light.

For over a million years, the earth has undergone a succession of glacial and interglacial periods. Each glacial period lasted anywhere from 70,000 to 100,000 years. In the most recent one, ice covered all of what is now Canada and the northern third of the United States.3 To date, each glacial period has been followed by a very warm, yet much shorter, interglacial period of 10,000 to 30,000 years. In some of these interglacial periods, ice covered less area than today.

The last ice age ended approximately 10,000 years ago. This was followed by a period of significant global warming that lasted -5,000 years. The average temperature in this time frame was 2 to 3 degrees Celsius higher than we find today. This caused the sea level to rise over 100 feet. The warmer climate also made it possible for broad-leafed forests to grow in latitudes much farther north than they do currently. In the most recent 5,000-year period, there have been numerous periods of distinct global warming and global cooling.4 However, the overall long-term climatic trend indicates that the earth has been getting cooler, not warmer.

Agriculture Flourishes

There was a very pronounced medieval warm period from 700 AD to 1400 AD. Indirect evidence suggests that the average temperature was as much as 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer than today. In Europe, agriculture flourished at latitudes farther north and at higher elevations than today. Vineyards, which require sunny and warm conditions, existed in areas 300 miles north of the present limits. The cultivation of grapes for wine-making was extensive throughout the southern portions of England from about 1100 to around 1300. The amount of English wine produced was enough to provide significant competition with the French. As further evidence of a much warmer climate, the tree line in the Alps was 300 meters higher than we find today.5

This warm period made it possible for the Vikings to establish colonies in Greenland and Iceland. Greenland, which could honestly be called a green land, was settled near the end of the tenth century. The colony flourished with between 5,000 and 6,000 residents.6 Sheep and dairy cattle were able to graze in areas that are today-icebound.7

By about 1400 the climate had cooled to temperatures that approximate what we see today. However, evidence from a number of sources-glacial sediments, tree rings, and written records-show that from the beginning of the fifteenth century until the mid-nineteenth century major cooling continued to take place in most parts of the world. This period came to be known as the "Little Ice Age." Glaciers around the globe in Europe, New Zealand, North America, and Greenland advanced and have only recently started to recede. The freezing of the Baltic Sea and the Thames River in England became a regular occurrence. London had its first "Frost Fair" on the river in 1607. This winter festival was an annual event until it was discontinued in the 1800s with the return of warmer winters.

The settlements in Iceland and Greenland were especially hard hit by this period of global cooling. Iceland lost half its population. In Greenland, farms were abandoned as the permafrost level rose and glaciers advanced. We do not know exactly how the Greenland colonies came to an end because growing sea ice cut off all contact with the outside world in 1410.

More Global Warming

During the last 150 years there has been another fairly sustained period of global warming amounting to an increase of about 0.7 degree Celsius. In spite of rhetoric to the contrary, the majority of this warming took place naturally before 1940. This warming trend was interrupted by a 35-year cooling period from 1940 to 1975. This caused many climatologists to actually predict that we were entering another ice age.8 At that time the public was obsessed with "global cooling." Today, our obsession is "global warming."

This review of the post-ice-age epoch shows that global warming is, in reality, both common and natural. In fact, for most of this period, the temperatures were much warmer than we see today. While our current level of industrial activity probably contributes to global warming to some degree, the increases that we have seen in the last 25 years are by no means unprecedented.

After viewing global warming from this alternative perspective, it is hard to justify the strong medicine prescribed by the Kyoto Protocol. Ironically, given the fact that the long-term climatic trend suggests global cooling, rather than global warming, our industrial/economic activity may actually serve to impede the natural cooling process. Under these circumstances, the environmental alarmists may want to adopt a new warning label: Enjoy the warm weather, while it lasts!

Source

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Many people would like to be kind to others so Leftists exploit that with their nonsense about equality. Most people want a clean, green environment so Greenies exploit that by inventing all sorts of far-fetched threats to the environment. But for both, the real motive is to promote themselves as wiser and better than everyone else, truth regardless.

Global warming has taken the place of Communism as an absurdity that "liberals" will defend to the death regardless of the evidence showing its folly. Evidence never has mattered to real Leftists

Comments? Email me here. My Home Page is here or here. For times when blogger.com is playing up, there are mirrors of this site here and here.

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