DUBIOUS REASONING

The research abstracted below shows that decreased snow cover is a major CAUSE of regional warming in the Arctic. But what causes the decreased snow cover? The authors assert, of course, that it is our old villain, global warming. But, in very cold climates, the amount of precipitation is the major influence on what builds up on the ground so it seems likely that the reduced snow cover is the effect of reduced precipitation (snowfall) rather than anything else. And since global warming should INCREASE precipitation, that effect can hardly be traceable to global warming -- so is most probably traceable to more local climate cycles

Role of Land-Surface Changes in Arctic Summer Warming

By F. S. Chapin, III et al

A major challenge in predicting Earth's future climate state is to understand feedbacks that alter greenhouse-gas forcing. Here we synthesize field data from arctic Alaska, showing that terrestrial changes in summer albedo contribute substantially to recent high-latitude warming trends. Pronounced terrestrial summer warming in arctic Alaska correlates with a lengthening of the snow-free season that has increased atmospheric heating locally by about 3 watts per square meter per decade (similar in magnitude to the regional heating expected over multiple decades from a doubling of atmospheric CO2). The continuation of current trends in shrub and tree expansion could further amplify this atmospheric heating by two to seven times.





HARD CHOICE ON NUCLEAR POWER

Some realism about the inevitability of nuclear power from an editorial in "The Scotsman"

There were floods in Hawick this week. Not quite Hurricane Katrina, but with basking sharks invading Scottish waters we all know our climate is doing funny things. A consensus has emerged over the past couple of decades that it is best to be safe rather than sorry in this situation. So public policy has moved in the direction of redirecting the emission of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, which scientists have implicated as a possible factor behind global warming. But just how serious are our politicians about cutting carbon dioxide emissions? Do they really mean it or is it just playing to the gallery? And how committed are the various environmental pressure groups to making the many political compromises needed to effect change in the energy market? Are they players or merely utopians who reject any compromise solution - which is no solution at all.

The facts speak for themselves. The Blair government has set a target for achieving 10 per cent of Britain's energy from renewable sources by 2010. however we can barely manage 4 per cent, & most of it from large-scale hydro-electric plants which the environmental lobby would oppose if built today. Wind power is the only practical renewable technology available in the timeframe but it struggles to produce 0.5 per cent of electrical power after 15 years of development at enormous public subsidy. Besides the environmental lobby has now turned its guns against shore-based wind turbines. Lesson: the government will not meet its 2010 renewable energy target as the Prime Minister, Tony Blair, hinted loudly in his speech to the Labour Party conference a few weeks ago.

In Scotland, championed by the environmental minister, Ross Finnie, illusions regarding renewable power illusions are even more fanciful. Scotland has the advantage of the great hydroelectric schemes built in the 1940s & 1950s, which provide around 13% of our electric needs. Rather than build on this legacy in a sensible fashion, Mr Finnie has set an absurd target of generating 40 per cent of power generation needs provided by renewables in 2020. This makes the Executive - especially its Liberal Democratic part - look heroic to the more impressionable part wing of the environmental lobby. However any sensible observer realises Mr Finnie's figure is either hopelessly farfetched or a cynical ploy be a politician who won't be around in 15 years time when it is exposed as a fraud.

A look at the small print of the Executive's policy on renewables reveals it is premised on the untenable assumption that future growth in energy demand is limited to between zero and 1% per annum. But governments of all parties have championed energy conservation in Britain for 30 years only to see demand soar by 60%. Electricity demand in the United Kingdom rises at 1-1.5% a year. Unless Mr Finnie plans to knock down most of Scotland's houses over the next 15 years & rebuild them with a serious eye to energy conservation you can forget the 40% figure. Even if Mr Finnie did succeed in his plans, renewable energy is substantially more expensive than other forms of generation. Household bills would skyrocket, while what is left of Scottish industry would be put at a serious competitive disadvantage.

Fortunately a little common sense has started to break out in government circles in the past few weeks, especially at Westminster. Mr Blair has begun a not-so-subtle campaign to put nuclear power back on the agenda as an alternative that renewables or conservation can do the job of cutting down on fossil fuel emissions fast enough to help with global climate change.

A clue as to how serious the Prime Minister is can be found in the fact that that the Department of Trade & Industry has recently confirmed it has been holding preliminary talks with major nuclear utilities in Germany & France. The DTI has already identified 3 sites to host new reactors, including Hunterston in Ayrshire. That puts Scotland squarely in the nuclear frame.

Not for the first time, the Executive is prevaricating. The Hunterston B nuclear power station in Ayrshire is set to close in 2011, while Torness in East Lothian will last until around 2020. Together they supply some 20% of Scotland's electricity. Take them out of the game & renewable will have to fill even more than that impossible 40% target. Unless new nuclear stations are commissioned, the reality is that Britain & Scotland are going to have to burn a lot more expensive, imported natural gas. So much for cutting fossil fuel emissions. So much for security of energy supply.

The conclusion is inescapable: if we want to cut fossil fuel emission in a reasonable timeframe, the only practical policy is to build a new generation of nuclear generating plant. Others are thinking this way too. China plans to build 30 new reactors by 2020, while environmentally-conscious Finland has already broken Europe's long moratorium on commissioning atomic power stations.

The latest designs of nuclear plant embody passive safety systems that do not require human intervention in the case of an accident. The Chernobyl reactor on the other hand, relied on human operating procedures which were violated. The new reactors are also much more economical to build, operate & maintain than the current generation.

Long term waste storage remains an issue, but if there is a choice to be made it is surely more to cut the fossil fuel emissions now and sort out the nuclear waste at our leisure. Half a loaf is always better than nothing to a starving man. It is just such hard political choices that the Executive has to start making.






EU BUREAUCRATS PISSING INTO THE WIND

Revised EU climate change programme launched

The second European programme includes road transport, aviation and shipping, plus carbon capture and storage, for the first time. The programme will form part of the EU’s strategy on climate change after 2012, which will include setting new targets on greenhouse gas emissions.

The European Commission plans to develop its climate change programme by bringing new sectors under carbon management, including shipping, light-duty vehicles and aviation - which is also due to be included in the EU emissions trading scheme. The Commission wants a “strong push for innovation” in new technologies such as carbon capture and storage, and in “adaptation to those aspects of climate change that are unavoidable”.

Four working groups will report to the Commission next spring on: The existing climate change programme: This includes EU Directives that seek to reduce energy demand and change the energy mix, plus the contribution of agriculture, transport and greenhouse gases other than CO2. The Commission plans to issue a policy paper on the review by mid-2006. Carbon capture and storage: The technology’s potential, costs and risks will be examined, plus the outline of a regulatory framework that would encourage its development. A Commission Communication is planned by early 2007. Aviation and how it should be incorporated into the emissions trading scheme. Reducing emissions from light-duty vehicles. A fifth working group will report in September 2006 on measures to help the EU adapt to climate change, including the likely impacts on land, agriculture and water resources, and on human health and habitation.

The existing climate change programme: This includes EU Directives that seek to reduce energy demand and change the energy mix, plus the contribution of agriculture, transport and greenhouse gases other than CO2. The Commission plans to issue a policy paper on the review by mid-2006. Carbon capture and storage: The technology’s potential, costs and risks will be examined, plus the outline of a regulatory framework that would encourage its development. A Commission Communication is planned by early 2007. Aviation and how it should be incorporated into the emissions trading scheme. Reducing emissions from light-duty vehicles. A fifth working group will report in September 2006 on measures to help the EU adapt to climate change, including the likely impacts on land, agriculture and water resources, and on human health and habitation.

Source

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Many people would like to be kind to others so Leftists exploit that with their nonsense about equality. Most people want a clean, green environment so Greenies exploit that by inventing all sorts of far-fetched threats to the environment. But for both, the real motive is to promote themselves as wiser and better than everyone else, truth regardless.

Global warming has taken the place of Communism as an absurdity that "liberals" will defend to the death regardless of the evidence showing its folly. Evidence never has mattered to real Leftists

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