Friday, July 29, 2005


Field evidence shows that sea levels in the low-lying Maldive Islands of the Indian Ocean have been FALLING in recent years. Because the scientific establishment cannot explain that, they are denying the existence of the fall. Immediately below is the abstract of the establishment response followed by comments from one of the team who discovered the fall:

Have there been large recent sea level changes in the Maldive Islands?

By: Philip L. Woodworth

(Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory, Joseph Proudman Building, 6 Brownlow Street, Liverpool L3 5DA, UK)


The Maldive Islands are often used as case studies within research into the impacts of potential future sea level change. Therefore, if such studies are to be realistic, it is important that the past and future variations of sea level in the islands are understood as well as possible. That objective led a fieldwork team to the Maldives, and resulted in a conclusion that sea level in the islands fell by approximately 30 cm during the past few decades.

In the present paper, the suggestion of such a fall has been examined from meteorological and oceanographic perspectives and found to be implausible. A number of met-ocean data sets and regional climate indices have been examined, at least one of which would have been expected to reflect a large sea level fall, without any supporting evidence being found. In particular, a suggestion that an increase in evaporation could have caused the fall has been demonstrated to be incorrect. Without any real evidence for a hitherto-unrecognised process which could lead to a sea level change as significant as that proposed by the fieldwork team, one concludes that a rise in sea level of approximately half a metre during the 21st century, as suggested by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Third Assessment Report, remains the most reliable scenario to employ in future studies of the islands.

Doi (permanent) address for the above paper here

Emailed comment by Nils-Axel Moerner (

In 2004, we published a short paper on our new findings with regard to recent sea level changes in the Maldives (Moerner et al., 2004). We said: (1) sea level is not rising at present, and (2) in the 1970s there even was a sea level fall.Our short report generated (1) a visit to some of our sites by an Australian team (Kench et al., 2004), (2) the active destruction of one of our field evidence by "some persons", and (3) a long report trying to neutralise our sea level fall (Woodworth, 2005).

It is quite remarkable what our 6-page article could set up. It is also remarkable that this 6-page article could give rise to a 30-page discussion of climatic-oceanographic variables in the region, and that this paper could be accepted, especially as our major presentation is still in preparation. What Woodworth (2005) writes is one thing, what we recorded is something completely different. Our findings stay untouched by his criticisms, which apply to surrounding climatic-oceanographic variables, not our field evidence. And why can he not wait for our full scientific presentation?

With respect to sea level changes in general (A) and our Maldives record in particular (B), I refer to a number of papers; viz A: Moerner, 2002, 2004a, 2005a, B: Moerner et al. 2004, Moerner, 2004b, 2004c, Moerner & Tooley, 2004 and C (climate and sea level): Moerner, 2005b.

Finally I quote the below paragraphs (from Moerner, 2005b).

"In the global warming concept, it has been constantly claimed that there will be a causal rise in sea level; a rise that already is in the accelerating mode, in the near future to cause extensive and disastrous flooding of low-lying coastal areas and islands. "It will be the death of our nation", says the President of the Maldives, and the people of Tuvalu in the Pacific claim that the flooding has already commenced. Is this fact or fiction? It is true that we are flooded by this information. But what lies behind this idea? And, especially, what do the true international specialists think? The recording and understanding of past changes in sea level, and its relation to other changes (climate, glacial volume, gravity potential variations, rotational changes, ocean current variability, evaporation/precipitation changes, etc.) is the key to sound estimates of future changes in sea level.

The international organisations hosting the true specialists on sea level changes are to be found with the INQUA commission on sea level changes and the IGCP special projects on sea level changes. When I was president of the INQUA Commission on Sea Level Changes and Coastal Evolution, 1999-2003, we paid special attention just to this question; i.e. proposed rise in sea level and its relation to observational reality. We discussed the issue at five international meetings and by Web-networking. Our opinion is illustrated in Fig. 1.


In view of the Fig. 1 prediction, I have later revised the estimate for year 2100 to: +5 cm +15 cm. Fig. 1. The sea level rise by year 2100 according to IPCC and its evaluation by INQUA.


Kench, P.S., Nichol, S.L., McLean, R.F., 2004. Letter to the Editor. Global Planet. Change.
Moerner, N.-A., 2005b. Facts and Fiction about Sea Level Changes. House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee, Report, 6 pp.
Moerner, N.-A., 2005a. Sea level changes and crustal movements with special reference to the eastern Mediterranean. Z. Geomorphology, N.F., Suppl.Vol. 137: 91-102.
Moerner, N.-A., 2004d. Changing Sea Levels. In: Encyclopedia of Coastal Science (M. Schwartz, Ed.), p. 284-288.
Moerner, N.-A., 2004c. Sea level change: Are low-lying islands and coastal areas are under threat? In: "The impacts of climate changes. An appraisal for the future", p. 29-35. International Policy Press.
Moerner, N.-A., 2004b. The Maldives Project: a future free from sea level flooding. Contemprary South Asia, 13 (2), p. 149-155.
Moerner, N.-A., 2004a. Estimating future sea level changes. Global Planet. Change, 40, 49-54.
Moerner, N.-A., 2000b. Sea level changes in western Europe. Integrated Coastal Zone Management, Autumn 2000 Ed., p. 31-36, ICG Publ. Ltd.
Moerner, N.-A., 2000a. Sea level changes and coastal dynamics in the Indian Ocean. Integrated Coastal Zone Management, Spring 2000 Ed., p. 17-20, ICG Publ. Ltd.
Moerner, N.-A. & Tooley, M., 2004. Reply. Global Planet. Change.
Moerner, N.-A., Tooley, M. & Possnert, G., 2004. New perspectives for the future of the Maldives. Global Planet. Change, 40, 177-182.


The first snowfall on this part of the world has claimed one life and caused extensive damage to properties. Puntland, northeastern part of Somalia has never recorded snowfall before last night when snow storms with high winds destroyed homes in Rako town. The storm left a blanket of snow on the ground, something residents had never seen in their lives before. Aside from this unexplained snowfall on this tropical land, Somalia has experienced very strange weather in the past few months. Floods killed people and forced rivers to overflow banks in almost all parts of the country. Many cities from Hargeisa in the north to Baladweyn in central were affected badly by heavy rains and floods. Many people were killed and thousands of livestock washed away by this strange weather. The country is still struggling to recover from last month's killer weather. With no effective central government, Somalia doesn't have weather prediction or climate monitoring systems in place. Somalis think this unusual weather and last night's previously unheard of snowfall are part of the global warming phenomena.



I live on a small portion of the Earth in North Kent, England, with one of the longest archaeological records in the world exhibiting continuous human occupation and industrial development. The internationally-famous skull of 'Swanscombe Man' (actually a woman), dating from 400,000 BC, was discovered in Thames gravels just four miles away, associated with working flint tools. Industry was already with us then. At Baker's Hole, some 2 miles away, there are the flint axes of 'hunter-gatherers' who inhabited the area around 180,000-200,000 BC. Other finds tell us of late-Palaeolithic and Mesolithic peoples (c.10,000 BC).

Then, from around 3,000 BC, we have the remains of a Neolithic agricultural settlement, which produced a distinctive decorated-pottery known as 'Ebbsfleet Ware'. Bronze Age and Iron Age ditches and enclosures finally give way to the remains of an important Roman religious settlement, Vagniacis, which flourished at Springhead on the local river between the 1st and 3rd centuries AD. Large burial grounds, many temples, mosaics, and a villa give testimony to the thriving economy of this Romano-British centre. Then, from Saxon times, there are the remains of a water mill, and so on, and so on. There is even a very special link with the New World, with North America, the high Algonquin princess, Pocohontas, daughter of Chief Powhatan of the Algonquin Nation, lying buried with great honour beneath my local parish church in Gravesend. And the story progresses - the site now carries the exciting, brand new and rather beautiful Channel Tunnel Rail Link to Paris and to Brussels.

Throughout this long, long, long tale, climate and sea-levels have changed over and over again, sometimes slowly, sometimes dramatically, with sub-tropical interludes, ice ages, permafrost, temperate floods, and drought. The vegetation has swung between forest and heath, open meadow, swamp land and sea, between chilly tundra, boreal forests, mixed deciduous forests, and grassland.

And, of course, the Earth never came to a crunching halt. Of course, humans have gone on, adapting and altering their lives, growing stronger, healthier, and older throughout. Today we live longer and with less hardship than any of these, our doughty ancestors.

I find it pathetic - I am ashamed - when we go into a funk over a little climate change - currently, at most, 0.7 degrees Celsius over 200 years! It is nearly obscene, with all our resources, to think that we shall not be able to adapt once again - unless, that is, we have lost our evolutionary dynamism and drive. Going back in time has never been an option, or part of the great story.

Just as Swanscombe woman could have no possible idea of the Roman wonder that was Vagniacis, neither have we about Virtualia, the city of the next 400,000 years.

Our present funk over climate is an insult to the men and women of our past.



Many people would like to be kind to others so Leftists exploit that with their nonsense about equality. Most people want a clean, green environment so Greenies exploit that by inventing all sorts of far-fetched threats to the environment. But for both, the real motive is to promote themselves as wiser and better than everyone else, truth regardless.

Global warming has taken the place of Communism as an absurdity that "liberals" will defend to the death regardless of the evidence showing its folly. Evidence never has mattered to real Leftists

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