RUSSIA'S KYOTO CHARADE

The vastly corrupt entity that is Russia will not of course make the slightest attempt to comply with the Kyoto obligations it has undertaken but it will take years for that to become clear and Russia will reap the advantages it wants from the EU in the meantime. And the EU is happy because the Russian agreement makes good window-dressing for their own folly. The report below pretends to take the matter seriously, however:

"Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed the federal law "On the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change", the presidential press service reported on Friday. The bill was passed by the State Duma on October 22, 2004, and it was approved by the Federation Council on October 27.

The Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is an international agreement setting targets for industrialized countries to cut greenhouse gas emissions in 2008-2012. This is a pilot project aimed at introducing new economic mechanisms - tradable quotas and joint implementation - to reduce greenhouse gas emissions within a five-year period.

To come into force, the protocol must be ratified by at least 55 countries representing 55 percent of the total emissions in 1990. After the United States and a number of other countries refused to ratify the treaty, Russia's support became crucial. As of now, 124 countries have ratified the Kyoto Protocol, but they only represent 44.2 percent of the total emissions. The treaty comes into force automatically after it is ratified by Russia, accounting for 17.4 percent of the total emissions.

At the same time, the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol will lead to additional costs for Russia. The bulk of measures to cut greenhouse gas emissions will be included in the government program "Energy effective economy" for 2002-2005 and through 2010.

Meanwhile, according to forecasts for Russia's economic performance, carbon dioxide emissions in Russia will exceed 1990 levels before the end of the first phase of the Kyoto Protocol in 2008-2012. Russia's financial losses resulting from the ratification of the treaty could total tens of billions of dollars during the first phase of the treaty, and in further periods - hundreds of billions of dollars.

Additional funds will be needed to implement preventive measures to adapt the country's economy to climate change and create a system for emission monitoring and control, including RUR 20m in one-time expenses in the first two years after ratification, RUR 20m in annual expenses, and an additional RUR 20m a year starting in 2008. Russia will pay another $150,000 to the Kyoto Protocol's budget, for administrative costs.

The Bush administration refused to sign the Kyoto Protocol in 2001. Australia did not hurry to join the treaty, either. Both countries are actively involved in the settlement of the Iraqi crisis, sidelining other international problems. However, thanks to Russia, the Kyoto Protocol came to the foreground again.

After the treaty comes into force, many national governments will find themselves in an awkward position. Countries that will fail to meet their obligations will face international sanctions in 2010. According to the protocol, the European Union countries will have to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by 8 percent, which is hardly realistic, according to the Western media. However, the United States and Australia, which will find themselves in isolation once the Kyoto treaty comes into force, will face the greatest difficulties.

It is difficult to say how beneficial the treaty will be for Russia. Western analysts say the ratification of the document will bring economic benefits to Russia, and it will help Russia join the WTO. But Russian analysts expect significant financial losses and economic slowdown.

Source




AND FRED SINGER IS VERY SKEPTICAL ABOUT THE RUSSIAN MOVE TOO

S. Fred Singer is professor emeritus of environmental sciences at the University of Virginia -- yet another retired man, funnily enough

After much flip-flopping that even a certain presidential candidate cannot match, the Russian cabinet has decided to submit the Kyoto Protocol for ratification. At least, that's what's been reported.

We shall have to see now what further economic and political concessions the Russian Duma (parliamant) can extract from the European Community in return. It is worth noting, however, that President Putin has labelled Kyoto as "scientifically flawed" and that the Russian Academy of Sciences concluded that there is no scientific basis for the Protocol (RAS Council Statement of May 14, 2004). So, clearly, the motivation is not an altruistic desire to "save the global climate" (whatever that may mean) but a shrewd political and economic calculation, with rather short-term objectives.

Because once Russia ratifies the Protocol, it will become legally binding on industrial nations (except the US and Australia, who have opted out so far), and Russia can start selling their unused emission credits to Europe - as permitted under the Protocol's trading scheme. There are still a few gambits that Russia might spring on the much-too-eager Europeans before ratification - like claiming credit for the absorption of carbon dioxide by the vast and growing Siberian forests. Another gambit may be to insist on a guaranteed minimum purchase of emission certificates. But basically, Russia can look forward to getting something like an estimated $5 billion per year. This income transfer will be from European ratepayers - households and industries that consume electricity - all on top of rising eco-taxes and rising subsidies for "sustainable" wind energy and similar boondoggles.

The delicious irony in all this - never advertised but quite easily grasped - is that there will be no benefits whatsoever to the atmosphere or the climate. As long as Europe and Japan buy sufficient unused emission rights, their emissions can continue to grow - as if they never signed Kyoto. Not that this matters too much. It is useful to recall that even if Kyoto were to be punctiliously enforced - with no cheating and with no emission trading - and if emissions were really to be reduced to 5 per cent below the 1990 level, the calculated temperature effect would only be 0.05C by 2050 - and only 0.02C if the US does not ratify....

It is often claimed that Bush withdrew from Kyoto in 2001, but this is not true. It is worth noting that Clinton never submitted Kyoto for ratification from 1997 to 2000. Bush, of course, has announced a voluntary plan of reducing the emission of carbon dioxide as a percentage of rising GNP - essentially a program of increasing energy efficiency.

More here

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Many people would like to be kind to others so Leftists exploit that with their nonsense about equality. Most people want a clean, green environment so Greenies exploit that by inventing all sorts of far-fetched threats to the environment. But for both, the real motive is to promote themselves as wiser and better than everyone else, truth regardless.

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