Hurricanes and Global Warming: Is There a Link?

"Data provided by the National Hurricane Center, shows hurricane strikes (landfalls) by decade in the U.S. since 1900. The 1940s were rather busy, the 70s the quietest, and the 1990s pretty close to the long-term average. A simple linear fit suggests a decrease over time. This is a result echoed by Easterling, et al (2000), who said, "the number of intense and landfalling Atlantic hurricanes has declined." In the Gulf of Mexico there is "no sign of an increase in hurricane frequency or intensity," according to Bove, et al (1998). For the North Atlantic as a whole, according to the United Nations Environment Programme of the World Meteorological Organization, "Reliable data . since the 1940s indicate that the peak strength of the strongest hurricanes has not changed, and the mean maximum intensity of all hurricanes has decreased."

Granted, there has been an upswing in the Atlantic since 1995, and this year's bumper crop of storms has struck Florida in numbers and intensities seldom occurring before. A sign of things to come, especially in a warmer world? Not according to Bill Gray's Tropical Forecast group at Colorado State University. Gray, who has developed successful methods for predicting hurricane activity, said, "Various groups and individuals have suggested that the recent large upswing in Atlantic hurricane activity (since 1995) may be in some way related to the effects of increased man-made greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2). There is no reasonable scientific way that such an interpretation of this recent upward shift in Atlantic hurricane activity can be made."

And there is no reason to expect increases in hurricanes due to greenhouse warming. Climate models, for all their problems, are unanimous in at least one respect: they predict that most of the future warming will be in high latitudes, in the polar regions. This will reduce the north-south temperature gradient and make poleward transfer of heat less vigorous -- a task in which tropical storms play a major role. All other things being equal, a warmer world should have fewer, not more, hurricanes."

More here. See also here.




Sustainability is boring

Kind of the taxpayer to waste 100 million pounds sterling, though

"The 100 million pound Earth Centre, set up five years ago to promote sustainability, was declared unviable by its operators yesterday. The centre was created on a reclaimed coal mining site in south Yorkshire with the help of œ36 million from the Millennium Commission. A sign outside the gates explains the centre is admitting only people who have booked until Oct 31. Fifty-one of the 75 staff have been made redundant.

The centre, which has charitable status, has been dogged by difficulties since it opened at Denaby Main, near Doncaster. It initially said its target was 500,000 visitors in the first eight months but in the first three months only 30,000 people turned up and 30 of the 140 staff were dismissed. Entrance prices which started at œ8.95 per adult were reduced to œ4.95 for visitors on bicycles, on foot or who had used public transport.

In the 13-week summer season in 2000, there were only 6,000 visitors and the centre was closed to allow a second phase to be completed before re-opening in 2001. After a new chief executive was appointed there appeared to be some success with visitor numbers rising 42 per cent from 10,000 to 37,000 in the first four months of last year. The centre appeared to be on course for 150,000 visitors and the œ2 million turnover required to ensure its future.

Its attractions include an indoor rain forest, gardens, wetlands, country park and play areas along with cycle trains and water features. A statement from the Earth Centre Trust acknowledged the attraction was no longer viable and talks were being held with the Millennium Commission on its future, but its survival hinges on a local authority takeover".

More here

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Many people would like to be kind to others so Leftists exploit that with their nonsense about equality. Most people want a clean, green environment so Greenies exploit that by inventing all sorts of far-fetched threats to the environment. But for both, the real motive is to promote themselves as wiser and better than everyone else, truth regardless.

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